What Can a Full Season of Lucroy Do for the Rangers?

The Angels, Mariners, and Rangers are all situated within a game of each other in FanGraphs’ projected standings.

The Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Yankees are also all bunched together with the those AL West clubs, all situated within in just three games of each other, suggesting there could be a crowded and parity-laden AL Wild Card race.

Any added value could be significant. For the Texas Rangers, there might be good news on that front. A full season of Jonathan Lucroy – who was acquired last summer – could offer additional benefits for Texas beyond the 3.7 WAR projected for him in the ZiPS forecasts.

Earlier this week, Texas Rangers manager Jeff Banister was asked by the Dallas Morning News about the benefits of Lucroy having a full season to work with the Rangers pitching staff.

“I think that it’s definitely going to be a benefit. He’s going to be able to learn the core guys that were here last year a little better. Obviously there’s some new guys coming in, but just to put his stamp and his brand on what he likes to do behind the plate and how he likes to call a guy. But we had a guy in Robinson Chirinos behind the plate that was a quality catcher too that helped these guys out. But I think the addition of Lucroy and what he’ll be able to do, just him as a hitter but also his game planning and our overall philosophy all year long will be a plus.”

To quantify all the ways Lucroy and the Rangers might benefit from Lucroy’s ability to work with his pitchers in February rather than on the fly in August is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. Last season, was a different kind of year for Lucroy.

Consider: from 2011 to 2015, Lucroy never caught more than 22 different pitchers in any given season. In 2016, meanwhile, Lucroy caught 40 different pitchers, including 18 new Rangers teammates after coming over from the deadline.

But it’s Lucroy’s framing (and framing in recent years) — along with the Rangers’ poor receiving in recent seasons — that’s particularly of interest.

As illustrated in this chart (created by Sean Dolinar), the Rangers have consistently been a below-average receiving club. And, as you can see, Lucroy’s receiving was once elite, and has really fallen off, though it bounced back to a degree in 2016

Lucroy was one of the game’s elite framers 2011 to -14, and as Jeff Sullivan noted nearly a year ago, Lucroy’s framing skills have mysteriously deteriorated.

Framing tends to age well. It’s a skill tied to technique and knowledge, more than athleticism, though that plays a role, too. Wrote Sullivan:

“Players who look like good framers tend to continue to look like good framers. … It’s against this backdrop the Lucroy decline is stunning.”

It’s a strange decline.

Perhaps it’s not all in Lucroy’s control. The 2015 Brewers’ starting rotation produced a 4.78 ERA, 8.5 BB%, and 7.8 WAR. Those were the worst marks produced by a Milwaukee staff caught by Lucroy. The quality starters Lucroy caught earlier in his time with the Brewers – Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada – were no longer around. Maybe Lucroy wasn’t getting as many quality borderline pitches to frame later in his time with the Brewers. Maybe he was doing more reaching.

In speaking with Lucroy about the art of framing in 2014, he noted the importance of the framing the low strike, which is the borderline pitch most often called as a strike. Russell Martin told me Lucroy is the best in the game at getting the low strike called since he sits so low in his stance. It’s where more pitches are thrown. Last season, 41.4% of pitches thrown toward Lucroy were below, or in lower-inside or lower-outside areas around the strike zone (7,226 of 17,467 pitches). He was able to get 693 of those pitches called as strikes, according to Baseball Savant. Pitches like this:

Of course, it’s the low strike that’s also in jeopardy as the commissioner’s office wants more offense in the game and was specifically concerned last winter with the growth of the lower part of the strike zone. Last season, the strike zone shrunk for the first time in the PITCHf/x era, according to Jon Roegele’s reseach.

In 2015, Lucroy’s season was also disjointed by a toe injury and concussion, though it doesn’t seem like those would affect his receiving skills. But he was improved in 2016 in a season not interrupted by injury. Perhaps umpires have become aware of Lucroy’s ability and are accounting for his framing whether consciously or subconsciously.

These are all just theories.

But Lucroy’s framing runs are going to be fascinating to watch.

Even if he catches at his 2015-16 level he should be a slightly above-average framer, and that would be an improvement over the Rangers’ receiving of recent years. Maybe there’s a hidden win there.

If he builds upon his 2016 rebound, if he benefits from catching a better rotation, at least a superior better top-of-the rotation, there could be significant value added to the Rangers.

Lucroy is going to hit. Outside of his 2015 season, when he was injured, Lucroy has posted a wRC+ of at least 116 each year since 2012, including a 123 mark last season. He’s at least going to be an average defensive catcher, providing an upgrade over the Rangers’ catching defensive of previous seasons. But if the magic returns to Lucroy’s glove there’s even more value to be enjoyed in what could be a close race come September.