Eric Longenhagen Chat – 3/5/21

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, good morning! Don’t know about you but I’m enjoying all the baseball (obvs with a dusting of COVID-related angst) and hope everyone else has, too!

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I’m packed full of allergy medication right now, so let’s see what that means for this chat

Takao: Thoughts on post-hype guy Tejay Antone? Seems to be consistently in the upper 90s now (97-99) with an improved breaking ball. Struck out 5 in 2 innings his first outing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in big. Had him 40+ FV’d last yearand thought that was properly aggressive at the time, but his velo has just kept climbing. I he’s a real impact bullpen piece at worst and could probably start if they want him to, tho don’t think he’d sit 97 as a starter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also note that, he’s one of the only guys whose spin rate in the big leagues has taken a leap from what we’ve sourced in the minors

Jack: Thoughts on the start to Jud Fabian’s season? The K rate is worrisome for the top half of the first round type of guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah there’s some growing Jeren Kendall type of risk/vibe there. Like, just because of the tools, I still think he goes somewhere in the first.

Jim: Is Rodolfo Nolasco a future top 100 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: So, he’s hitting balls really hard for his age. The mix of guys who have hit the ball as hard as he does at his age is peppered with huge names, like Acuna. So I think that’s possible. At least for me, from a corner-only profile like this, I tend to need a little more actual performance than a guy like that has been able to provide so far.

Stanky: Wondering when you’re going to re-evaluate Chris Rodriguez, based upon the very positive words from camp last year–including health–and the nasty stuff we’ve seen in spring so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you still need to factor the injury history into how you line him up. His delivery is still so violent. But he’s got three bat-missing pitches. I hope then ‘pen him and put him in the big leagues immediately, for a number of reasons.

Goober: Have you ever seen a system as volatile as the Angels right now? A year from now they could have a half dozen top 100 prospects, or a bunch of toolsy projects. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind that part of this is because a) the club has been trading lots of prospects over the last several years and b) part of the approach on the amateur end (which I like) has been pursuit of high-end athlete types.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like the Angels have either held fast to that sort of approach (Adams, Marsh, Adell, CRod, Holmes) or guys who check what I think are extreme analytical boxes (Will WIlson, Kyren Pars, Calabrese all for age, Detmers for performance)

Eric A Longenhagen: but mostly it’s trades

Mark: Can you explain why Keegan Akin is not listed on the top Orioles prospects list? I can’t see any way that his 2020 roster time hit 45 days of service to graduate, and he has been included on other sites O’s prospect rankings for 2021.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him as graduating. but let me quickly recount days and see if that’s right…

Eric A Longenhagen: regardless, he’d be a 45 FV. I put all the 2020 graduates on a tab so folks can see where they’d line up if still in the system….THE BOARD | Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah looks like a miscounted and he’s at 43 days? It’s very close, I’ll have to check again

Eric A Longenhagen: I

DanQuaalude: How does the trackman/batted ball data changed the way you’ve scouted over the years? How often do you use it to change the future value of a guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more been a way to flag guys to ask about or go see. There are certainly a handful of guys on there who are on because of some elite measurable trait (Chris Gittens, Connor Cannon)

Mike: Your write up for Jaden Hill says that he’s a potential late inning power arm…any chance you think he can start? What would he have to show you this season (besides just staying healthy) to update that projection.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he has a decent chance to start. I guess the thing for folks to think about is this: Luis Medina is a few months older than Hill. The industry has about the same amount of time with each player but different types of info (while Hill’s in late HS, Medina was already in pro ball) and these two guys have totally different dev timelines (Medina is already on the 40-man, Hill won’t have to be for several more years since he’s not even a pro yet)….

Eric A Longenhagen: So does that developmental context change the way we look at them even though they have roughly the same stuff at the same age?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyway yeah, Hill might start, I’m not sure exactly how many strikes I’d need to see him throw to think it’s more likely than relief but there is some amount

Chris: Thoughts on how taylor trammell has looked in mariners camp so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen him yet, even on TV. Moved him off the 100 because I got scared of how he’s struggled with velo for the last year or so. Not sure if something has changed with him or if I/we just missed something that we shouldn’t have in the lower minors.

David: What are takeaways you are able to make in Spring Training for Prospects? Velocity differences, swing changes, general health for those coming back form Injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: the velo changes and physical development are of interest to me at this point, or if we haven’t seen someone for a while because of injury (like Rdoriguez and Wells with Baltimore) then that’s an important data point, but it’s still too early for me to think “this guy has feel to hit or pitch” because it’s wk 1 spring training

Father Padre: What did you think of Gores 2 innings yesterday?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think it’s good where his arm strength is at, control was rusty (which I think is fine) breaking ball was often below avg, saw one good changeup. His fastball has really sizzle, not just because of the velo. I’m confident the changeup will be a second out pitch. His feel for locating was not there. I wish he’d relax out there, though.

Rupert the Great: Hi! I’m intrigued by Henry Davis’ bat combined with likelihood (?) to stick behind the plate. Same goes for Kevin Parada. Are they both potential Top 100 types? How does their ceiling compare to other catchers currently on your Top 100? Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: Both of those are high-ceiling, Top 100 type catchers, yes

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Logan Tanner, too. I dig Jonathan French and Alex Milazzo too, but they’re not for you fantasy players in chat.

Fo Real: There’s a junior at USC Upstate in SC that looks like an absolute stud. His name is Jordan Marks. Heard of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not, check back in next week

Pro Baseball Radar: Do you think the reps taken at the alt. site last year can be the equivalent of a full minor league season? If not, do we just expect most prospects to pick up where they left off in 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alt site reps (just based on how many pitches people threw or saw) was more like a third of a season and probably less, practically, because it had zero competitive energy at all.

Eric A Longenhagen: and so few prospects were at alt sites overall. so no, i think play will be rough in the minors early this year

Guest: From your prospect writeup, it sounds like Kelenic may not end up a CF, at least not a palatable one. In this case, does he end up with something like a Conforto profile- a power-hitting LH RF? While that is absolutely a valuable player, I feel like seeing him in that light might make his loss a bit more palatable to Mets fans (who I think still see him as the CF who got away).

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re thinking about the possible defensive fit in exactly the right way, but I think a thing to remember is that Kelenic is further along than Conforto was at the same age and that’s an indication his ceiling with the bat is higher.

Blue Dodger: If everything clicks for Andy Pages, what is he doing in 2024 and what level is his game at stat wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: If everything clicks he’s hitting 35+ bombs

Eric A Longenhagen: in 2024 he’s on the cusp of the big leagues

Eric A Longenhagen: i think Franmil Reyes-type is more the median outcome, the one better than that has a more stable approach than Pages does now.

Jeph: Hi Eric. Kumar Rocker’s ultimate upside seems to be similar to other power starting pitchers in recent years (electric offerings if the command comes along). Who does Jack Leiter compare to when it comes to upside? Your report on the Board suggests he’s more of a (pardon the terrible pun) jack-of-all-trades type. Does that ultimately limit him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that the thing the game has become best at developing is velocity, and that I’m at a point where I’m more likely to anticipate growth in velo rather than in pitchability (see: Cleveland). In this regard I prefer Leiter’s foundation to Rocker’s. But obviously it’s razor thin. Leiter’s curveball needs more power to really be a weapon. Rocker’s slider is one right now.

Old Prospector: Beyond Hayes and Keller, do you think any current Pirates big leaguers will be on the next contending Pirates team?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reynolds (as more of a solid everyday type than a star) and Tucker (who knows what he ends up being, but he’s the kind of guy who I think is important to keep around for a number of reasons, some of which is just because he seems like a great dude, some because I think he has a ton of late-bloomer traits)

Jacob: With the question about Antone, have you heard of any ways to increase spin rate other than foreign substance? Do you think Foreign substances will be legalized?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know about any of that. I know I have a high speed camera and that I see a lot of baseballs leave guys’ hands in a very intimate way. And now I watch them between pitches as if I were watching someone do closeup magic and was trying to see how they did their trick.

Eric A Longenhagen: As far as policing it, in my opinion it’s only the players who should have an opinion on this. This is an code of conduct thing that they alone should have say in, its impact is limited to them alone. However they see it is fine with me, I don’t know if that “hitters actually prefer us to do it so we have better control” stuff is eyewash or not

Hermie: What are “backfields” exactly? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: So every spring training complex has several auxiliary fields out behind the main stadium where developmental work occurs. Minor league games, live BP, bullpens, infield/outfield. Stuff like that. It’s a useful place for scouts and people like me to be.

Stanley: What do you hear about Ryan Vilade? Keith Law heard issues, bat taking a step back (lost bat speed, looked “awful”), while others heard many positives and expect a breakout. I know you haven’t done your COL list yet, but hoping you could clear up the confusion for me. Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not see Rockies instructs myself so I leaned on scouts who did and in-office folks for what I have on Vilade. The in-office types like him. At one point he was toward the back of the top 100. I liked him as an amateur, he had huge power. Scouts who saw him in fall did not like him as much, especially in LF, and that still appears to be the case. I like the bat enough to think he’s likely a contributing big leaguer, but I decided not to 50 him.

Jacob: Will you scout the Pioneer League at all? What kind of talent do you think will be a part of that league? Do you know how that talent will be sourced?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe if I’m vax’d by then. I haven’t spoken with anyone about the kinds of players they anticipate will be there.

I Like Baseball: Best college baseball game(s) to watch this weekend?

Eric A Longenhagen: auburn/boston college, Tennessee/Georgia State (go look at GSU’s non-conference schedule, they’re fearless), Grand Canyon/Okla. St, Oregon/UCSB

Scott: Does Burl Carraway have 9th inning upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Matt: Does Vidal Brujan’s FV change if he can be an above average defender in CF? The Rays have been trying him there in ST.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’m already betting on him being a impact defensive player somewhere/in several spots.

Brandon: Any other high upside college pop up guys that we should be keeping an eye on, that weren’t mentioned in your March 2nd article?

Eric A Longenhagen: Caleb Roberts at UNC, Nathan Hickey at Florida, Chase Silseth at Arizona, John Rhodes at Kentucky…there are gonna be more

Cito’s Mustache: Who’s the oldest player you have ever included in your team prospect lists, and would you ever have a hard cutoff for age? (this question was inspired by the Julian Merryweather entry on the Jays list)

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t think of who it is off the top, it’s been older/injured relief types like Merryweather or Ray Black, guys in their late-20s. Some foreign pros coming over.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think most of our readers know how to understand/research big leaguers on their own, so all I’m trying to is provide a central location for the guys who are outside the natural scope of readers, and sometimes those guys are older

Hegelbon: You haven’t seemed to be in on Chase Petty or Anthony Solometo, two guys who have been getting a lot of hype online. Will they rank on your next board update or do you have reasons for skepticism?

Eric A Longenhagen: Solometo’s arm action and Petty’s effort terrify me, the track record of mature-bodied hard-throwing high school guys is not good, especially when they have violent deliveries.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ashe Russell, Justin Hooper, etc

Hermie: Could there be such a thing as FV without regard for service time? Like when Adell dropped on the BOARD because the Angels called him up too early… it’d be cool if there were a way for us to parse your feelings about Adell’s career from your feelings about his value to the Los Angeles Angels baseball franchise as human capital.

Eric A Longenhagen: “feelings” about “value”? That’s weird man. He slid because he’s clearly going to take time to adjust (on offense and defense) and then (hopefully) be great while other guys (like Soto, Acuna, etc.) came up and crushed right away. There’s gotta be daylight between those two types of players, it became clear Adell was not going to in that instant impact group. And that’s totally fine.

Donnel: Regarding Jaden Hill, is it unusual to see someone with an uncertain future as a starter feature so high on draft rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, I think our collective ability to anticipate which of those someone will be is overstated. Like Puk, and McKay and Whitley…guys get hurt and totally change. Hill’s got awesome stuff, three plus pitches, he should go really high

Eric A Longenhagen: okay baseball is about to start. Thanks for stopping by, everyone, enjoy this weekend’s slate of games and stay safe.