Eric Longenhagen Chat 5/22/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Los Angeles. Let’s get to it.

Tim: When’s the next mock?

Greg: Any new top 10 buzz?

Big Fan: Can we hope, wish and dream about a new Mock Draft soon?

Tommy N.: Any draft rumblings for the top 10 specifically with the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeesh, it’s barely been a week, guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: we’ll post one when we have enough to post one

Larry: How much are Hunter Bishop’s recent strikeouts impacting his stock? Could he fall out of the top 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s in the ‘con’ column of the profile, breaking stuff has been a problem for him (in my looks) the last few weeks

40’s across the board: so carter Stewart? thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: seems good for him and anything that upends the draft is okay by me

Paul: Austin Riley is obviously off to a huge start. I’ve watched every one of his at bats and he is getting absolutely blown up by anything over 95, and there seems like some concerns written about him hitting velocity in scouting reports I’ve seen. How much of a long term concern is that? Is there actually a fix for it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the swing path and power allow for him to hit hard stuff the other way enough that things will be okay, but yeah you’re seeing what some people (like Keith) have been correctly concerned about

Squire: What’s the best strategy for a team like the Phillies who pick mid-first round and have no 2nd round pick? Is it possible to cut a below slot deal in the mid-first round? Is it worth it when you trying to push money out all the way to the 91st pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not if you’re targetting high-profile players. If you want to spread saving around to a lot of 250-600k high schoolers (which there’s an unusually large amount of this year), then okay.

D back fan: Any interest d backs backfield prospects? Junior Mieses?

Eric A Longenhagen: yup, there’s now video of him on the youtube page and he’ll be on the HM section of the Dbacks list, which I’ll finish when I get home

PM: Looking at the eastern league leaderboards the Thunder have 3 of the top ten hitters by OPS Gittens Ruta and Park. The last two were others of note on your yankee list while gittens didnt make it at all. Anything notable change with these guys or are they all just off to a hot start?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d point to Abiatal Avelino, Mike Ford, Jorge Mateo, etc. as examples of why to be skeptical of Trento #s

BlueJayMatt: Hi Eric, weekly Blue Jays question. What are you guys hearing so far this year about Patrick Murphy, Yennsy Diaz, and John Winkowski? The Jays could really use some pitching to go along with their top hitting prospects + Pearson, how do these three lesser known names project going forward for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of thoe guys might be a back of rotation fit, think they’re all, individually, more likely to be relievers.

Chuck Richter: Hi Eric, do you have any injury updates on Angels’ prospects Jo Adell, Jeremiah Jackson, D’Shawn Knowles and Chris Rodriguez? When is the soonest we can see them back in action? Thank you!

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw Adell before I Ieft for LA (btw, Sadrac Franco is throwing very hard) and, to me, he looks uncomfortable running. Bat speed is fine. He’s playing, so probably close to heading back to an affiliate but I expect them to be cautious.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jackon is also playing in extended and he’s getting the Deveaux swing treatment. He just doesn’t look great, has swung and missed a lot in my looks. Knowles is finally back playing, looks healthy to me, swing is super short now. Rodriguez, I think this is on Twitter, had further back stuff?

Clodd: Haven’t seen the Mariners connected to any significant IFA names here or via MLB Pipeline. Are they actually not making moves?

Eric A Longenhagen: Remember they fired their director last year and most of these deals get done well in advance of July 2, so the department needs time to get its feet

Joey Bats: Hi Eric, thanks for chatting. Have you heard anything/seen Luis Garcia(WSH)? He’s struggled mightily offensively so far. How much leeway does a player like this get when he is so much younger than his peers?

Eric A Longenhagen: i wouldn’t sweat it as long as he’s this young for the level

Nate: I would like your opinion on the A-ball pitchers Chris Vallimont, MIA and Joey Cantillo, SD

Eric A Longenhagen: have nothing on Vallimont right now. Cantillo is another vertical slot/deception/spin efficient guy (SD has done well to find these types. Luchhessi, Gore, Marge, etc) who’s gonna miss bats.

Slothrop: When is the best time to send a question? You never answer mine 🙁 Anyway does Will Benson have real potential as an MLB-caliber three-true-outcomes type performer?

Eric A Longenhagen: not really a timing thing, more a subject matter thing. Like 5 questions in my queue talk about other publications in some way. Those get tossed, immediately. Yes on benson

greg: Will you and Kiley be able to do a live video thing during the draft this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure what we’ll do aside from trying to Woj like we did last year.

Brian: Did you get a chance to see Heliot Ramos before he got hurt? He was putting up huge numbers in high A at only 19.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes and the physical tools are back up after they were down last year

Freddie: If Jasson Dominguez was in the draft where does he get picked?

Eric A Longenhagen: we’d have him in our 50 FV tier

PatEdMartin: How heavily scouted are collegiate summer leagues other than the Cape league? Are there any worth paying attention to for prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, Northwoods, Alaskan, all of them

Statcast: Do you ever check the stat cast data and rethink your grades on players (mostly run)? Guys like Fletcher and Ward were graded as average and below runners, but their sprint speeds are closer to elite and above average.

Eric A Longenhagen: sure but sprint speed = top speed, max speed. Ignores acceleration. The 90ft splits are better for assessing speed, imo.

Jason: Who are your top 5 players going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vague McHitter, Pregunta Fantasia, Lindor, Vlad, Craig

DJ Tanner: Is Devin Smeltzer legit? A 23 year old with a 1.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP in high minors is incredible.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes. spin rate is up each of last several seasons. funky, deep repertoire, throws strikes. No idea if a 4 fastball plays several times through the order but he’s def a big league arm of some kind

Mark: Would it be possible to add steamer projections (or all the other projections) to the BOARD? Think it would be another cool angle to look at. Really appreciate the constant improvements and updates!

Eric A Longenhagen: we’re already at column capacity, I think

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d want Rule 5 year, option year, bonuses, all that kind of stuff before things that can be found elsewhere.

Braník Best: In Alex Verdugo‘s preseason writeup, you guys mentioned that other teams questioned his makeup and didn’t want him in trade talks. Would you now consider that concern overblown with how his current teammates seem to react positively to his antics? I’m bringing it up because there’s a glowing ESPN article on him today. To me, makeup is one of those “secret sauce” attributes that non-scouts don’t really understand.

Eric A Longenhagen: we were referring to off-field stuff. He’s allowed to play however he wants, we dig stoics and bat-flippers here.

Kevin: Do you know what injury has Peter Solomon sidelined?

Eric A Longenhagen: sorry, do not

questions: jose soriano has had a good stat line this year besides BB%. have the scouting reports changed at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: nope, he’s been as anticipated

questions: Kyle Bradish has been dealing, have you heard anything about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: another good arm action, vertical break guy. Probably reliever for me

Kevin: How much stock do you put into velocity readings from minor league broadcast guns?

Eric A Longenhagen: some of them are good, some are not, unless I know for sure I avoid citing them in the work

twoseamers: jose hernandez-urquidy seems interesting. why can’t i find any video of him this year? has his velo ticked up from last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: not sure on the velo but we had him on the Houston list as 6 change, 6 command. Those guys often perform better than expected.

Braník Best: Obviously, every prospect is different. Will the Carter Stewart signing drop Boras clients on some teams’ 2019 boards because of the fear they’ll go to Japan (or Korea)? Japan only allowing 4 foreign players won’t allow for this to become a huge alternative to MiLB.

Eric A Longenhagen: know the number before you call the name, Isay

Eh: Who are you and what have you done with Kiley??????/

Eric A Longenhagen: using this opportunity to respond to a message frlom Kiley…

Kevin: Perfect game’s website has data available for things like bat speed, 60 times, OF throws, exit velocity, etc for a lot of the top HS players, is any of that useful or have the players changed too much since it was taken?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter

RQIII: Dylan Carlson is third in the Texas League with a .906 OPS despite being its second-youngest regular. Would you expect him to be a top 100 prospect by the mid season update?

Eric A Longenhagen: mhmm https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2…

v2micca: Two nights ago San Francisco hosted a Game of Thrones themed game night. And a Joffrey Baratheon look alike in Mike Soroka proceeds to torment them for 8 innings. Coincidence? (Seriously, just run a search on Mike Soroka Joffrey Baratheon, its very unfortunate for him)

Eric A Longenhagen: i don’t know what this means

Kevin: Are the Astros the team that offered Yolbert Sanchez $2 million if he waits? How does he compare to Anibal Sierra?

Eric A Longenhagen: i was told Boston but that was a while ago

kevinthecomic: Has Nicky Lopez been who you thought he was so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: haven’t been able to watch Royals games lately

Clodd: Is Logan Gilbert simply the guy we expected assuming his velo returned post-draft or does he look improved beyond that?

Eric A Longenhagen: the former, so far as I know

Polska: In mocks, I have seen Corbin Carroll slip a bit. Is that due to potential fit with teams or something the scouting community picked up on?

Eric A Longenhagen: teams question the pop, don’t see him turning on balls and hitting for power

Ben: Is it fair to say prep pitchers are the group starting to move up draft boards as a whole? Is it because they are graded higher than first realized or scarcity of other profiles?

Eric A Longenhagen: they almost always fall on draft day

draft wiz: last year you guys nailed deep picks, like jackson to LAA at 47. any similar locks for them or another team in the range this year? how were you able to be so certain about stuff like that one?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s just from being at games, taking a look around, shutting up and listening to what people are saying rather than trying to assert yourself into conversatois, and getting on the phone with the right people. We sure do have some intel on 2nd round stuff, but why give it away right now? That’s what the final mock is for.

Jeff: Konnor Pilkington has put up very good numbers in A/High A so far. Is this more reflective of the competition or a bounce-back of his velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: i don’t have velo reports from this year but SEC arms better carve A-ball

The 6ix: Darwinzon Hernandez: 44 K, 25 BB in 31 IP in AA. What are the chances that guy like this learns control?

Eric A Longenhagen: small, we have him projected as an elite reliever

Tim: W/r/t Carter Stewart, would he be a free agent after the 6 year contract or would he still need his team to post him for him to come over?

Eric A Longenhagen: we just don’t know. this has no precedent. I’m sure MLB would fight to keep costs down however they can.

Nate: What’s up with Oscar Gonzalez in the Indians system? He continues to hit year after year but seems allergic to walks. Is there anything there?

Eric A Longenhagen: has real toos to hit but the approach makes him high-risk.

Nate: Is Zach Plesac a guy worth monitoring? He’s come out of nowhere with lines that look very similar to Shane Bieber‘s over the last couple of years in the minors.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes. Velo is up without detracting from strikes, change is plus

Simon: Has Mitchell White turned a corner, or same story basically?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s been consistently inconsistent as a pro and I have to expect that to continue

Nate: When is Luzardo going to be back?

Eric A Longenhagen: sounds like it’ll still be a few weeks. I’ve been trying to stay on top of what’s happening in Mesa and it looks like Luzardo may not be back until AZL or close to it

Ted: How seriously should we take Cavan Biggio? What’s a realistic outcome for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t think he can play 2B, thnk he’s a low-end corner OF regular at this point. I know the numbers are goofy.

Joe: What’s the youngest age you’re personally willing to invest time and effort into seeing and evaluating a prospect (ie Blaze Jordan)? What’s your take on the young slugging lad?

Eric A Longenhagen: if I run into underclass high schoolers naturally (which happened more than usual this year) then cool, but I rarely go out of my way just to see them

Eric A Longenhagen: on Jordan? I’m skeptical. Classic mature build r/r profile.

Chili: Loved your SF Giants top 10 but was surprised not to see Conor Menez mentioned. Any thoughts on his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: fringe stuff that plays up due to plus plus extension, maybe backend type.

youngknockoutkid: Putting aside bonuses and things like that, is Lodolo the consensus #1 pitcher off the board?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, lots of folks aren’t big on Lodolo

Ronnie: Is Drew Rasmussen the primary cause of the Global Helium Shortage?

Eric A Longenhagen: lol, that’s very clever

Eric A Longenhagen: all time chat question

Jeoffeory: “i’M eRiC LoNgEnHaGen. pRoSpEcTs. dEvElOpInG a tHiRd PiTcH.” that’s literally what you sound like

Eric A Longenhagen: Have there been typos or something? I’m chatting on my phone and am terrible at texting.

Greg: Mitch Keller recently added a slider/cutter, are you encouraged by this development? I know he wasn’t having much success with the changeup.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, could be big

J: Do teams ever use rapsodo/blast/edgertronic for predraft workouts or do they only get Trackman data?

Eric A Longenhagen: they do use that stuff

Chaise: How aggressive do you see TB being with Franco? Do you think he jumps to High A after the All-Star Break, assuming he keeps doing what he’s doing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I both think they should push him until he fails for the first time, just so he has the opportunity to reckon with it before he’s in the bi,g league spotlight

Zach: Is Matt Manning or Nate Pearson more likely to reach their ceiling as a top of the rotation starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: manning, he’s the better athlete

Fan of graphs: Yordan eta update?

Eric A Longenhagen: i just don’t know, i doubt HOU would tell me if they knew

Fan of graphs: When should we expect to see Noelvi marte playing in the u.s.

Eric A Longenhagen: next spring

joe random: How much do you think Monte Harrison’s breakout is the PCL and how much is him making an adjustment?

Eric A Longenhagen: leg kick was cut way down in the AFL but Marlins folks told me it might be back at some point. If he’s still K’ing at this rate with no kick, just bring it back if it means he’s hitting with more power

Nils: Keibert Ruiz still looking good offensively, but has 33 SBs allowed, only 7 CS. Does he have the arm to keep a MLB running game in check?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s above on pure arm strength, plays like a 50 because he’s kinda slow ut of the crouch, elite accuracy

Eric A Longenhagen: i think he’ll be fine

Chun: Thoughts on Kevin Cron? Is he for real?

Eric A Longenhagen: hey, sometimes r/r 1b profiles pop in their late-20s.

joe random: any idea what the new Giants front office thinking with the 10th pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: John Barr was at Stott Friday

Jacob : Do you look for different things at different levels? If so, what are the differences?

Eric A Longenhagen: more body/raw tools and instincts at the lower levels, more performance at double and triple a

Danny: Yankees draft strategy question- if they drafted Jack Leiter at 30, would they have to go severely underslot with 38 or can they make up the extra $1.5Mish from the rest of the draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: i’d do it at 38 so i wouldn’t have to worry about it all draft

Mike: I know Vlad Jr. was more highly thought of as a J2 prospect, but whatever happened to Gregory Guerrero? Still a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: was injured (surgery, i forget for what exactly)

Elwood Blues: The writeup on Alexander Kirk was amusing, but not terribly informative. What kind of hit/power/approach does he have?

Eric A Longenhagen: and with that, today’s chat will end. i anticipate being back on Fridays next week. (peace sign)