Eric Longenhagen Chat- 5/8/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let’s have a brisk chat.

bk: Regarding the draft, will there be any real team specific, substantiated rumors leading up to it? Or is this just a year of ranking players (as you have), without any real ability to conduct a well sourced mock draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mock drafts are going to be tougher this year because some of who I/we attached to players was based on what personnel were at what games, and then of course that dope was rolled into more dope as we’d call around share that. Now, you have to derive more from agents and from teams without incentive to mislead you in a situation, and both of those are more often impacted by ulterior motives than “This GM is at a game in May” which is typically all signal.

Greg: How does a five-round draft change strategy for teams with extra or fewer picks than normal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends where those picks are, not just that there are fewer.

Buff: Which team will be your next prospect report, and when will it come out? I live for these reports, have zero interest in KBO or sim league stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers Monday, then Cleveland, then Reds

Reid: So, Luke Little has now touched 105, if today’s video is to be believed. What does that kind of velo bump do for him as a prospect, and can he rise in the draft based off of some workout velo metrics?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know nothing about the context of that situation. How often is he throwing? How many pitches had he thrown before that? He’s a good prospect who throws super hard, same as before.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, we seen these videos of guys doing this in the bullpen before, sometimes with pulldowns…. do they ever sit 102+ as starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose it’s worth asking your question to teams, because I really don’t know, but as with anything else I’m skeptical

JJ: Thanks for the Yeoman’s Work episodes, I enjoyed them. Has anyone ever told you that you and Robert Mays from the Ringer have remarkably similar speaking voices? Almost uncanny.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not until now. How good a head of hair does he have? Is he a threat?

Adam: If a truncated season does take place with expanded rosters, how will teams balance the development of their top prospects? Would it be more detrimental to the development of a player to miss an entire season of games or be pushed to a level that they are not prepared for? For example, if you were Jerry Dipoto, would you place Jerrod Kelenic on the expanded roster and try to get him in some games, or leave him off and send him to Peoria for instructionals?

Eric A Longenhagen: While roster rules haven’t been delineated, or probably even truly decided by MLB, teams anticipate having their 26-man roster expanded (to 30? people are just guessing, nobody knows), plus another roster’s worth of players (the other guys on the 40-man, plus some hand-selected prospects up to a certain amount, again, nobody really knows how many) as a taxi squad buffer for injuries. There might be a fall league of some kind that enables more prospects to get some reps. If you’re the Orioles, you’re probably approaching the prospects/roster situation differently than the Dodgers

Eric A Longenhagen: So, no blanket answer to your question

Carlos: What do you have on Indians C Bryan Lavastida? There’s not much on him out there despite elite age/level performance, good CS% for being a INF to C conversion prospect who signed for 8th rd money out of JuCo. List worthy? If not, what’s holding him up?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be on the Cleveland list. Has had some issues throwing in my looks but he receives okay, he’s really short to the ball and tough to strike out (Cleveland loves those guys), pretty athletic lower half, bat speed is fine, has performed both years…

Dave: Is the “Stanford swing” still a thing, or did that get retired? Will hitters coming out of Stanford have better prospects in the pros than in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, new regime at Stanford and the swings are no longer that conservative.

Joser: Given the reduced bonuses, do you expect top HS talent to go to college and hit the draft when there’s more $$ on the table?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a great argument for 19-year-old high schoolers to go to school and be sophmore eligibles the year they’d get most of their deferred bonus money from 2020 were they to sign.

Mordecai and Rigby: How likely is it that Garrett Grochet remains a starter? The delivery doesn’t seem too bad or too violent to me. The stuff is right there with Asa Lacy and Emerson Hancock, and it would be shame if he ended up in the bullpen. Great arm

Eric A Longenhagen: 15%?

Joser: Are there any kind of prospects who suffer more from a cancelled minor league season than others, or is it equally bad across the board?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone who is 2020 Rule 5 eligible is hurt. No chance to prove to their team or any other that they deserve a 40-man spot.

Rand: I don’t have a question. Just want to say Future Value is terrific and everyone here should read it!

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you

Luke: Eric – Just wanted to say job well done on the book. I’m almost halfway through and am learning a ton. Thanks a lot!

Eric A Longenhagen: and also you

Mitch: Jared Jones has 55 CMD upside? With 2 plus pitches and a 3rd avg? Why is he not a 1st rd arm anymore?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I need to update that. He essentially hasn’t thrown strikes for a year now

Ryan: Puason or Colmenarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Puason

Mordecai and Rigby: How does a team build a proper draft model with so little input data for this year? Like I know they use multiple inputs (exit velo, makeup score, age, etc.) but performance is such a large part of the formula. Like do you just modify the formula/model to stress last year’s performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, you can still use the model it’s just going to be less reliable, but that applies to all 30 teams

RAH: If Austin Martin ends up an above average LFer and Nick Gonzalez an average 2B, does Nick become the more valuable player?

Eric A Longenhagen: If Gonzalez becomes a 40 2B and Martin is in LF then Gonzalez is more valuable (assuming they both hit like I think they will, though I’m more confident Martin will, which is also important)

Walter: Eli Morgan will pitch in the Majors and go Marco Estrada on us. Fight me

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Morgan but even I can’t whoop someone from six feet away

Ford: Any go to meals during quarantine?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do a thing that is, appropriately, untitled. It’s Polenta, cherry tomatoes, onion, eggplant, baby bok choy and okra covered and baked with shredded smoked cheddar. It’s good, but I need to name it.

Doug: Hey Eric, hope you are well. With only five rounds, do you think teams will still theoretically pick the best player available or will they adjust strategy to address perceived weak spots in their farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams don’t draft for need

Mordecai and Rigby: When will MLB officially announce the date and number of total rounds for the draft? Next week hopefully?

Eric A Longenhagen: People anticipate a month’s notice on the draft and its various details, which means finding that stuff out soon if the draft date isn’t moving

Mordecai and Rigby: Hey Eric. Have you gotten around to reading your good pal Keith Law’s book The Inside Game?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, still waiting for my copy to be delivered

GSon: How fair is an 80 game suspension (Emmanuell Clase) in relation to a truncated season?. More than half is more than what was intended?. or will the suspension be truncated as well?.. If the suspension bleeds into the 2021 season.. is it the 2020 or 2021 season that he is ineligible for the post season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great questions that may be rendered moot if the season is long enough. He was going to miss like 3 months with a teres major injury anyway.

Roger: Does the probable lack of a milb season affect a team’s willingness to take some risk on draft signability? (ie, if he doesn’t sign, there’s not much difference in playing time between this guy and next year’s replacement pick)

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but I’ve also been suggested the inverse: that some teams might pop, say, Burl Carraway or some other college power arm, with an eye on him maybe contributing in a bullpen capacity right away.

Horst: Before you publish the Indians list. Add OF Trenton Brooks to your others of note. You’ll thank me later

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on there. Liked him at Nevada. Cocky two-way guy with contact skills.

Roger: I’ve seen reports that some players are still at complexes. Do we know who and whether it’s allowing them to get more work in than the typical player stuck at home?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, some guys are throwing bullpens with a bag of balls off on their own, others taking BP from a machine. Some players at home with someone have throwing partners, varied access to home gyms, flipping tires in a junkyard somewhere…all over the map right now.

A AE X-12: Along the lines of the “Stanford swing” question, why did/do top prospects continue to go to Virginia and Stanford when they had such poor track records of preparing players for the pros? Is the allure of Palo Alto that great?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t get it, either. They’re both great schools, it’s true. But so is Vandy, so is UCLA, and lots of other places with better recent dev track records.

Jon: Any solo podcast coming soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeoman’s Work has a chance to turn into something like that

Keith: which guys from this class will be the quickest to the MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tork for the hitters, you could probably pick any of 10 college arms and be right. Detmers as a starter, lots of potential quick movers as relievers

Alvin: This is awfully granular but when you say for instance that Zac Veen would rank 80th on THE BOARD, is that with or without other draftees like Torkelson and Martin slotting in ahead of him? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: good question. It is without the draftees in there, it’s just as if I dropped in that individual.

Insert Clever Name Here: Re: Alexander Guillen, I understand if he was left off the 2020 COL prospect list as a minor league free agent, but since he’s back on the Rockies, would there be a case for putting him back on The Board between his 2019 updated placement and his strong 2019 performance in general?

Eric A Longenhagen: There would have been, but I saw him pre-shutdown and his stuff had regressed substantially. I was bummed.

Colin: Where do Batman vs TMNT and Batman Ninja rate on the 20-80 scale?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen either yet, probably wouldn’t watch turtles one. The artistic style of Ninja seems cool.

Reese McGuire: Has your opinion of the Orioles player development improved at all? You were pretty down on them about a year or two ago, but they at least have some talented guys coming up for sure…

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, based on the Elias/Sig track record of developing pitching, you’d have to think differently about it now.

Lark: This may be a dumb question, but I’d appreciate getting a better sense of what a starter in the majors who had “reliever risk” looks like- I know the McCullers types, but is there many who have totally broken out of that mold? It helps to calibrate expectations for some of these draft picks in particular- I tend to think of everyone with reliever risk as just being destined for the pen

Eric A Longenhagen: There are a couple sub-groups I want to address as I answer this question because I think why any individual player is considered a relief risk is as important as the notion that they are a relief risk. SO…

Eric A Longenhagen: Size: Stroman, Sonny Gray
Mechanical Violence/Xenophobia: Sale, Scherzer, Castillo
Most of the guys with an injury history or command issues end up in the bullpen, just glancing at the starter and reliever WAR leaders

Eric A Longenhagen: Buehler had a pre-draft medical but he had the one TJ and that’s been the extent of it, I think.

Guest: Is Roderick Arias linked to the Yankees

Eric A Longenhagen: yah

:Fangraphs reader: Super minor point, but you have Ralph Garza on the others of note for the Astros section, but you don’t include anything about him in the writeup

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll add something post-chat. He’s 90-95 with big underlying traits, had nearly 20% swing and miss rate on his fastball last year

What: Xenophobia? What?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, scared that the delivery is weird/unique

Bo: I know he has the high ceiling (by a lot), but doesn’t Jo Adell also have a much lower floor than Brandon Marsh? I can’t help but get a Byron Buxton vibe here…

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, if you look at Adell’s likely future position (LF) and his swing and miss profile compared to Marsh’s and focus on those two things, you can make that argument

Jeff: What do you think of the Detroit HS SS, Blakely? S

Eric A Longenhagen: Raw, but has ++ frame

Felix: I heard RHP Juan Mota hit 100mph in ST. Can you confirm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not at the moment, but that’s not surprising. Have him up to 98 last year

Ford: Drafting for an OOTP 5 year sim. Any prospects that you think would be under the radar but contribute at the major league level in that time frame?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I have anyone with an ETA past 2024 on The Board so I’d stick to that

Danny: Likely way too early to know but is the expectation that the 2021 J2 signing period will be delayed too? Something like January 2022?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think we’re on a whole new calendar for Int’l stuff already. January for this group and every one beyond it until a draft (which I think will be ’23, Kiley thinks ’22)

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Watched Justice League: Apokolips War yet? Or you not quite that big of a nerd?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I’m just into Batman brooding in solitude and devoting his whole person to his job. I can’t figure out why.

Smiling Politely: As for your culinary concoction…potential names:

1) The 80 (a clear winner)
2) The (Wander) Franco (creates Pavlovian, salivary response)
3) The Colón (i like a good double entendre)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d put a 60 on it (70 if you add andouille) so 80 is out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m gonna go cut up video from this game…

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.milb.com/gameday/azl-dodgers-mota-vs-azl-rangers/2019/08/2…

Eric A Longenhagen: for the next Yeoman’s Work. Thanks for stoppign by this week, I imagine we’ll have much more to discuss from a draft standpoint this time next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: until then, hope everyone stays well