Eric Longenhagen Chat: 6/28/19

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. Only link I’ll press upon you this morning will be our July 2 stuff. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/july-2-international-amateur-p…

12:06
Lilith: Should I be worried about Trammell? He seems to have lost all of his power over the past year. I heard a rumor that he changed his swing? Is that true?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t worry about it. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for significant power, it’ll be an OBP/defense thing.

12:08
John Coppolella : What chance do you see of Kevin Maitan ever tapping into his (once) immense potential?

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: maybe 5%? If he were a junior college prospect he’d probably be a 400k sort. Still a prospect, and it’s important to look at him with the context of his amateur reports, but his career probably died when some combination of the player and Braves let his body get out of control.

12:11
Brandon J: What do you make of Josiah Gray? Could you see him surpassing Jeter Downs as the better prospect of the Dodgers/Reds trade?

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure he can. Athletic conversion arm might just be scratching the surface.

12:11
Wildcats : Thoughts on Trent Gresham? His stat line is damn impressive this year. Could he be a 3-4WAR guy in the bigs?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: The track record of plate discipline is strong, he hits the ball in the air, everything else is below

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: maybe a platoon guy? I’m just not buying this monster boost right now

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: 3-4 WAR would be in the 60 FV tier, he’s not on that level

12:14
Keith: Has Nick Madrigal‘s performance at AA done anything to change your perspective on his ability and future value?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: no

12:15
Guest: Any word on Breyvic Valera with the Yankees? Was there a mechanical change or is this small sample ?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I just assume the ball is at play with anyone at Triple-A or succeeding in a small big league sample

12:15
Pablo: Any updates on the value of Jose Urquidy since the pre-season list?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: velo is up some, 91-95, touches 96 on occasion.

12:17
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Happy Friday Eric – the knock on Cavan Biggio’s bat was that he just didn;t swing in the minors thus all the walks. Seems to still be working in the bigs. SSS but he looks pretty good. Do you see this continuing?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s a great skillset to connect to Trent Grisham. Biggio looks like a perfectly fine offensive contributor who provides little defensive anything. That’s a 45.

12:18
DJ Tanner: Alexander Canario is destroying the Arizona league, outshining teammate Luciano who has been great too. Being that he is 19 (close in age to Heliot Ramos), will Giants try to push him up to A ball or even A+ if he keeps going like this? Any changes you’ve seen? I know he was one of your Picks to Click for 2020 lists!

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’ll be down here much longer

12:18
Mark: Do you ever look at projections to evaluate a player? They tend to slightly undervalue top prospects but it’s still the best way to ascertain immediate impact

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: it’s a sanity check

12:19
Dan the Man: How do you think DSL teams would fare against some of the better college programs?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: they’d be crushed

12:20
Matt: Do you see any angel prospects that are currently on the outside breaking top 100 lists by the end of the season ? Soriano? Molina?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: probably not

12:21
Tom: Hi Eric. In recent years, the Jays have tended to go heavy on one or a few top guys for J2 (Vlad in 2015, Orelvis Martinez last year, Pardinho, Jimenez and Hiraldo in 2017). This year it doesn’t sound like that’s so much the case. Do you think that represents a change of philosophy, or did they just not land a top 20 guy this year? Thanks.

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: it could just be something as simple as differences in opinion on a player that makes it look that way. When you only have two outlets covering players from that market, that’s more likely to happen. Also, it may just be a single-year thing rather than a long term strategic shift. We’d need several years of anecdotal evidence to feel good about saying there’s been a shift.

12:25
Bobby: Yermin Mercedes just smacks the ball wherever he goes. How come he is never, ever discussed?

12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s super fun to watch hit but he’s a bad-bodied 26 year old beating up Double-A pitching and he’s a below average receiver. Maybe he’s an offensive-first backup or 3rd catcher?

12:26
Pin: Anything to like about Cubs’ prospect Jonathan Sierra?

12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Physical beast with huge power, but serious risk he’s a 3 bat

12:29
Fangraphs Reader: Kind of a random observation, but THE BOARD doesn’t have the Astros having a #7 or a #32 prospect.

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it’s a spreadsheet mistake (i’m actually gonan go fix it now)

12:30
Walken: What kind of tools does Yoelkis Cespedes have, and do you have any idea which teams might have the money/desire to sign him?

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: my reports are over a year old, but I had 8 arm, 6 body, 5 run, 5 power, 3 bat

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: pushed the updated button so HOU list should be correct momentarily

12:33
IsIt2020Yet?: Think the Dodgers would overpay for an elite are like Felipe Vazquez? Maybe a Lux and Smith for Vazquez and Kevin Kramer framework?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: The Chapman deal as a framework for Mazquez probably means just one guy like that, not two

12:34
Sandy Ravage: Sherten Apostel has heated up recently! Think he can crack the top 100 next year?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve obviously been on him since he was with Pittsburgh, but that’s a R/R profile at 1B (probably, maybe he’s passable at 3B) so he’s gotta mash like that other R/R 1B we’ve had on the 100 (Alonso, Vaughn) and I don’t know if I see that. Maybe toward the back, a lower 50 FV?

12:37
Keno-san: Any word on when Kaito Yuki will begin pitching in real games?

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: None yet, waiting to hear on Witt, too.

12:38
Ken: What’s to like about Rafael Marchan?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: athletic catcher with bat-to-ball skills

12:38
Nick: Best case scenario for Cornelius Randolph at this point?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: maybe platoon? He hasn’t been on the Phillies page on the board for a couple of years now

12:39
Broken Bat: The frenzy about the Cub Rookie pitcher is overwhelming. You had him as a 45 overall. Nice but not top shelf. Your write up I believe mentioned low rated change up. Chicago announcers are raving about his change up. He has walked a hitter an inning but has induced about equal strikeouts. What do you really like about Adaberto and what is his Achilles heel?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Are you talking about Alzolay? Yeah I noticed he threw way more changeups against Atlanta than he did in the minors. Arm slot looks lower to me, might have impacted vertical action on his breaking ball. Part of why we’re hesitant to move a guy like that into the 50+ FV tiers is the injury history and command combo.

12:41
NPB: Have you seen any Jo Adell this year? He’s cut down on his swinging strike rate a lot and I was curious if he’s made a mechanical tweak to increase contact or if it’s mental and he has a better idea of the strike zone

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him rehabbing and was really just focused on how he was running/moving

12:41
Fangraphs Reader: Jojanse Torres‘ MiLB page lists him as having signed with the Brewers in 2015, but doesn’t have him playing any games or ever being listed as released. Do you know what’s going on with that or how it might effect his rule 5 eligibility?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t but I’m noting this question, it’s a good one

12:44
brad nj: Eric what can you tell me about two under the radar SP? Connor Menez SF, 3.11ERA, was 2.84 before last night, 1.05 WHIP, 81IP 109K, stuggling a little but in PCL. Former 6th overall pick Braxton Garrett, MIA, 2.86ERA 63IP 82K 1.14 WHIP.

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: i have Menez notes somewhere, please hold…

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Last I checked on Brax he was 90-94. Really like the secondaries and pitchability but that’s a 4 fastball now, so unless that pops into the mid-90s we probably leave him in the 45s.

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Menez I have 90-93 with plus-plus extension, average slider, above-command lets the slider play. show-me curve, below change

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: he’s 24, he’ll probably get a look on a rebuilding club that needs innings

12:48
stras, cole… rocker?: What does Kumar need to improve upon (in addition to staying healthy) to be regarded as a future potential #1 overall collegiate RHP selection like a Strasburg, Cole or Ben McDonald type? I would by no means put a MLB ace comp on an NCAA frosh but in terms of his lower body strength, style and arsenal, who does he remind you of?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: the consistency of his slider, the way his fastball plays in the zone, and a third pitch. Strasburg was 96-102 with two 70 secondaries, Cole was the same. That’s way better than Rocker.

12:50
Spencer: When two prospects have the same future raw power and hit grades, what causes a variance in their future game power?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: stuff like approach or swing path

12:50
Kyle: Not a prospect question but can we appreciate our Lord and Savior center-fielder Joey Gallo?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: saw him rehab in the azl recently and it makes you realize how gifted one has to be to make it at all, let alone be a star

12:51
Josh, Idaho bound: CJ Abrams is just going crazy down in Arizona. In your opinion, where do you see him slotting in the Padres top 10?

12:52
Boba Chett: Have you gotten a chance to see Brennan Davis, yet? Hitting well in A ball. Has he moved up for you guys?

12:53
Pete: When will draftees who’ve started playing (ex:/ CJ Abrams) have pages on Fangraphs?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: they do already, they’re just not searchable yet and that’s a thing we’re aware of and working on

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: for now (at least this is what I’ve been doing) you’re gonna wanna access them through the minor league leaderboard

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: you just have to filter down to the specs you want

12:54
Xolo: Is Joey Cantillo breaking out?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: kind of. Near elite vertical movement on the fastball, pairs well with his breaker. He’s a prospect, we’re trying to gauge where he fits on the teenage arm continuum.

12:56
v2micca: Braden Shewmake doesn’t look like an MLB Shortstop to me. If he manages to make it to the show, what do you see as his eventual position.

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: i think, if he gets there, it will be because he sneakily can play there

12:58
Fred: Is Brendan McKay an ace?

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna say no. We obviously really like him, but I saw deGrom recently and that dude was dotting 94mph sliders on the black, sitting 95-98 all game, he’s an elite on-mound athlete, etc. That’s the kind of thing it takes to be what I’d call ‘ace’ and i think that phrase gets tossed around too often. SP1 in your fantasy league does not mean ‘ace’

1:00
Connor Joe Buck: Jefferies, Puk, and Luzardo going today in Midland. You gonna be watching?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: in my own sort of way, yeah

1:01
Janus: Who do you think makes it to the bigs first from the 2018 class?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m sticking with my pre-draft pick of Nick Sandlin

1:01
Connor Joe Buck: Jefferies, Puk, and Holmes (I think I said Luzardo in my other submission) going for Midland tonight. You gonna be watching/keeping tabs on it?

1:01
hey dan!: how is noelvi marte looking?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: too big and strong for the DSL, should be in AZL in my opinion, but Julio was handled the same way last year and that’s working out quite well. I’m also biased because I wanna see the kid in AZ

1:03
Hottub: For early J2 agreements, what happens if a prospect regresses or gets injured, do teams have any protection in those circumstances or is that just the risk of grabbing top players early?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: that’s the risk you run. If you back out of deals you risk future players/trainers never trusting you

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: okay, i have to hop on a phone call. bye bye, all

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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