Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/26/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello good morning

Eric A Longenhagen: I have one link to share with you for now, that’s the announcement that our farm rankings (which are, aside from the player evals that drive the FV values, objective) are now live on the board at all times.

Eric A Longenhagen: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/farm-system-rankings-are-now-o…

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s pretty cool

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have another link for you later in the chat as Meg is working on editing it right now and that’ll just be the weekly ‘propsects who moved’ post

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a day AZL game today so I’m gonna try to keep this short

Nick: I’m having trouble putting together Ian Anderson‘s performance on the field with his incredibly poor spin rate on the curveball. Is that spin rate cause for concern in the big leagues that makes him a sell high candidate for Atlanta, or how else is he getting these results with a breaking ball that has such a bad spin rate?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s spin efficient. He has an over the top slot so all that tumble is occurring straight down and the pitch has workable movement despite lackluster raw spin. Same for MacKenzie Gore.

Mikey: Looking through the DSL leaderboards, one hitter’s name keeps popping up in the categories I like to look at for that league, Luis Matos. Seems like the best hitter in his age group in the DSL, what do you have on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: We need a bit more to stick him on The Board where I want to (he’ll be in the 40+ FV tier) but yes, plus-plus bat speed and plus runner at just 17 is pretty good. He’ll be on the Giants list within a day or two now.

Avila not Avila: Reason to get excited longer term about Tarik Skubal or more a case of a college pitcher (granted an injured one) dominating lower levels

Eric A Longenhagen: You can get excited about a late pick like that being a big leaguer at all, as far as I’m concerned. He’s really, really fastball heavy, he’s throwing it over 70% of the time for sure and maybe a good bit more than that. Repertoire depth is a concern for me as it pertains to him starting, but there’s a reason the guy was on my pre-draft 100 a few years ago and it’s because he’s talented.

Jake : Hello! In a Keep Forever Dynasty League and Marco Luciano on my roster. I have two owners pursuing him. Is it worth trading him or does he have potential to be so good that I should hold on for now? He’s still a ways away so I doubt the talent I revive back is anything of significance.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s got some of the best bat speed I’ve ever seen on a teenager but know that he’s currently a lousy shortstop and may need to move to the outfield.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d hold him unless pushing chips in is a thing that makes sense for you otherwise, I don’t think Luciano is on the Wander Franco fast track or anything, his game is less complete even if his offensive potential is Javy Baezy

Guest: You guys had Liover Peguero aggressively ranked pre short season ball. Has he exceeded that ranking in your mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m psyched he’s hitting like this but some of the slash line is BABIP fueled.

Will: I remember at the beginning of the year, you mentioned that the Mets coming into 2019 did not scout below full season ball. Are there any other teams with limited short season professional scouting that are looking to sell, and how might that impact the returns they are seeking at the deadline?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams have stepped up complex-level coverage, though the number of teams who do it in earnest (having a person here in AZ the whole time just to do ST, Extended, AZL, Fall League, target amateur and big league stuff, etc) is hilariously low. The bang for your buck here, especially if you have a person who knows how to source info and work efficiently, is wonderful. LIke I know some teams ask their four corners area scout to pick up pro coverage post draft and I think that’s insufficient.

SpicyBoy: tomorrow’s my birthday

Eric A Longenhagen: will you become SpicyMan?

Eric A Longenhagen: the wrost super hero ever

D back fan: Any interesting arms not on the board pitching for D Backs in AZL?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen them yet as I’ve waited for their high school arms to get going (which means I’ll see them today)

Resolution: Kind of a broad question, but based on what you know, where would you rank the Rockies FO/GM in terms of quality (i.e., drafting, developing, analytics, mlb moves, whatever you feel comfortable speaking to).

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough. I generally dislike what Colorado does in the draft room, especially with college relievers and generic, strike-throwing starters, but most of their excellent core is homegrown and it’s unfair to just ignore that.

GPT: The two Giants AZL squads seem stacked with bats, but no standout arms, anybody interesting to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Julio Rodriguez is back from an injury (i don’t know the specifics) and his velo is up into the 90-93 range, so he’s at least a 35+ now as he has a plus breaking ball, he’s young, and the body is better now than last year.

brian: The BOARD! lists 23 prospects from the 2016 draft as having a 50 or higher FV. That is by far the most for any year listed. Was that considered an outrageously strong group or were you guys perhaps more liberal in grading in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s the year I came over from ESPN after the draft, so those FVs were thrown up as a makeshift content bridge and aren’t well-calibrated, though I suspect the players are ranked in a decent way.

Trev: Do you think CJ Abrams is already a 55 prospect? What are the things hes going to need to work on as he comes up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I promise we just change guys on The Board when we want to and Abrams will be a 55 as soon as we think he is. He’s not a lock to stay at SS. It’s flashy but weird, he can’t make all the throws but gets to a lot of balls most can’t. It’ll be interesting but this is close to what Roman Quinn and Billy Hamilton looked like defensively, though Abrams has more max-effort arm in there than those two did.

Jack: Is Logan O’Hoppe a real prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, athletic, well-made catcher from cold weather area. The type to stay on, the type that blossoms late.

Andy J: The Dodgers continuing to remain near the top of the farm rankings after years of graduations and trades is insane. Obviously they have a good scouting department and development, but which of the two are they best at?

Eric A Longenhagen: dev

Eric A Longenhagen: also, much of LAD’s farm ranking is tied up in their 60 FV guys. Nobody else has three.

Guest: What do you guys see in recent callups Michel Baez and Adrian Morejon? Whats the value in a year of relief appearances?

Eric A Longenhagen: keeps them each healthy, which has been an issue for both players

IsIt2020Yet?: With Taillon likely done for the year—if you were Huntington next week—would you really hold on to Felipe Vazquez and Starling Marte given your pitching is bound to be a question mark again in 2020?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can see an argument for it since the core of the next good team is nearly here (Newman is hitting, Reynolds hitting, I like Hayes and Tucker, etc) but I’d move Felipe and other relief parts, at least. Those guys are so volatile, move them while they’re hot like Edwin DIaz.

Zach: Isan Diaz shown real improvement, or is it just the PCL?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve just left a 50 FV on him through all the ups and downs and think we’ll continue to do so. Body looks better now than in years past, range is still below average at 2B but actions and arm are great.

JK: Have you seen or will you see Trent Deveaux in the AZL? Has he settled on a swing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him again last night. It’s still noisy as hell, but he looks more comfortable now, his timing is better.

Bo: Who’s the highest rated prospect that could realistically be dealt by Wednesday?

Eric A Longenhagen: ummm, the highest name on the board that I’ve know teams have discussed is Kyle Tucker, but teams are really mixed on whether they like him or not. Pure speculation I’ll say Jesus Sanchez, but I have no real dope there. That just makes sense.

Jim Leyland Palmer: What’s your outlook on Wenceel Perez? I know you were a fan last year, and the performance hasn’t been there this year. Still quite young though

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still all over Wenceel. I typically won’t let bad numbers pull me off players who have been pushed to levels beyond their age, especially up the middle types.

Bearry: Zack Trageton, young for his draft class and limited innings, still hasn’t walked anyone in ~50 innings starting at A-. Is he the kind of guy that gets overlooked or is it mostly his durability limiting his stock?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a non-velo fastball sleeper. Only 88-92 but has other components and the strike-throwing is obviously goofy. More overlooked because of the lack of velo, you really need to be on the lookout for other stuff when you see someone like this to leave liking them.

Adam: Thoughts on what is increasingly becoming a lost season for Tirso Ornelas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Made the decision to see KC/LAA last night instead of SD/OAK and Tirso so I have no idea where he’s at physically or mentally, but I’d just toss it out and try not to fret over his year.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a teenager who they tried to put in Hi-A, that’s really tough.

Adam: Please tell me it’s okay to buy in to Manuel Margot’s last 30 game sample size.

Eric A Longenhagen: this is the kind of thi last 70 batted balls compared to his career and watch video to see, if there’s been a statistical change in launch angle, if there’s been a mechanical tweak to support the motion that he’s different.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has at least average raw, he’s just a downward swinger, or was as a prospect.

Dave: Since you answered a DSL question, figure I’ll try one too…. Anything on Rafael Morel or Yohendrick Pinango? Both seem to be having excellent years at 17 for the Cubs…..

Eric A Longenhagen: Pinango is stocky, muscular, physically mature. Morel has more of a projectable frame, good infield actions, swing is okay, you hope more strength comes as he matures.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hoping they come up to replace guys repeating AZL (Verdugo, Garcia, types) late in the summer

Nolan: I’ve gotten myself all hyped up on CJ Abrams’s scorching start. Have there been any early rumblings about how he looks? Does he need more power in order to develop into a top 10 type prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been good for a while, it’s why he went 6th. There’s more power now than last summer, more is coming. He needs to learn to get to it in games and he’ll explode.

Oak Land: Is Jorge Mateo actualizing his tools or is his power explosion (and BABIP) just the rabbit ball and to be overlooked? The approach still seems concerning

Eric A Longenhagen: Approach and infield actions are concerning. He’s still a CF for me.

kevinthecomic: Thanks for chatting! Always entertaining. Prepping for my dynasty keep forever annual prospect draft — is there a way on The BOARD! to filter only on guys who were either drafted or signed this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: type ‘2019 Draft’ or ‘2019 J2’ into the search bar

Rick: Why no love for Alex Wells? 1.83 ERA in the Eastern League at age 22 yet doesn’t make the Orioles’ top 35 prospects? What don’t you like besides the 88-91 mph fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y…

Eric A Longenhagen: nobody does it at 88-91 from the jump. Just about all of these guys had big stuff at one point and made relevant adjustments as it dwindled.

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s hard to get outs sitting 88-91, most of the high school arms at PG National throw that hard.

joe: luceano or mauricio?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lucario

Nolan: RE: scouting below A ball. Do you think the FTJ trade has impacted overall interest in scouting complex guys? No team wants that to happen to them.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think data dependability at upper levels has pushed scouts to lower ones

Eric A Longenhagen: some GMs have to be scared to trade for a player who might not be ready before you’re fired, though

Schrodinger’s Chat: Stroman and Giles for Frazier + Garcia + Gil/Contreras, who says no?

Eric A Longenhagen: lol the Yankees say no

Peter: Why do we see so many advanced college bats/arms debut in rookie ball? Especially if they played in the SEC, PAC12 etc, wouldn’t A+ or AA be closer to the level of competition they were playing at?

Eric A Longenhagen: short-season leagues start after the draft while other rosters are already full. enough college players end up in those leagues that the level of play is roughly like college baseball. The very best guys should just go to full-season ball, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: but i get why they dont always, it’s nice to throw aberdeen a bone and let Adley play there for a minute, you know?

Albert Belle: What are your thoughts on the White Sox rebuild? should hahn and company be given the opportunity to continue or is it time for a change in regime

Eric A Longenhagen: i think there’s value in continuity and recent development made by Giolito, Stiever, Moncada, etc. is a sign that this group is getting footing in dev they didn’t have before now. I give it a bit yet.

Tacos: Kristian Cordozo was reported as signed by the Dodgers. It was even shown on the team’s transaction page. Now he has signed with the Mariners. What happened there?

Eric A Longenhagen: no idea

Chuck: Are you impressed by Jeremiah Jackson‘s power output in Orem (14hr in 143AB)? Is he someone we should be keeping an eye to move up in FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him but advise you not to trust PIO power

Bubba: How often is The Board updated? Any chance you guys can put a little indicator that shows when?

Eric A Longenhagen: peep the FG_Prospects twitter. One of us tweets out all the updates from there

Connor Joe Buck: Do you know why Kyren Paris hasn’t played at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: minor injury but I forget what

Matt: What’s the current “on time” age for a catching prospect to reach the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: the buster poseys of the world are exceptions, not the rule. 24-26 is typical for catchers.

Takao: How much does Hunter Greene’s tommy john surgery affect his prospect stock? He’s down pretty much everywhere.

Eric A Longenhagen: For us, we move him based on time. So when you have TJ and you’re at Double-A, we move you back on the list to where someone with comparable stuff is in Low-A. Then we monitor stuff when the player comes back to see if there needs to be another move.

Robert : Can you sum up how you feel about Forrest Whitley at the moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a patient mf’er

Connor Joe Buck: A few A’s teenagers seem to be doing pretty well in the AZL. Have any info on Marcus Smith, Givaine Basilia, or Brayan Buelvas?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig Smith a bit. Speed, slasher type in my looks. Need to see the other two guys, though.

Yorman: What do you think of the long-term health of Washington’s farm? They’re 29th in the rankings right now, and even that ranking is supported largely by Carter Kieboom, who is basically a prospect in name only at this point. Do you think Washington might be inclined to trade, say, Trea Turner this offseason as a means of bolstering their farm, with the idea that Kiemboom could slot in as SS of the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think when they knock it down it’ll be the whole thing

Kyle: Any change in the FV of Trent Grisham? Seems like he’s made some real improvements this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, we moved him up a few weeks ago

Steve O: I see you made some updates to the Yankees board.. but still no Canaan Smith when he’s been one of the best hitters in the SAL and just turned 20. Are yall not high on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: he may be a 35+ or 40 FV but it’s a corner OF profile so has to mash. We need more on him but understand we have reasons for being skeptical right now

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Any info on these three Cards prospects who aren’t on any of Fangraphs list – Justin Toerner, Tommy Parsons, and Perry Dellavalle? They’re all 22.9-23.9 and at AA or A+ (so not spring chickens), but they all have really good peripherals and are 2nd-year pros moving really quickly. Two were 27th/28th rounders and Parsons looks like he was undrafted. More #CardinalsDevilMagic?

Eric A Longenhagen: St Louis pushes colleges guys fast and it often creates artificial value/unreliable signal. And I believe that Lunhow took it to Houston with him which is why we get Josh Rojas and…oh who’s the guy they traded to Minnesota….shit, I forget his name. Anyway, that guy.

Connor Joe Buck: Is ‘Prospects who Moved’ replacing the DPN?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, I wanna write other stuff (including a book)

Steve O: How much trade value does Michael Chavis have? Enough to headline a package for a very good reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: I stand by the 45 FV we had on him, so yeah that’d fetch a great reliever.

Eric A Longenhagen: other than the top handful of guys, most great relievers are 45 FV types (though I acknowledge that ignores leverage entirely)

Nick: I’m sure this has been talked about at some point, but will there ever be a plate discipline tool rating for readers to get a better reading on prospects? I’m thinking about someone like Mountcastle and whether his low walk rate is a function of poor discipline/recognition or just being aggressive at a level he knows he can hit.

Eric A Longenhagen: I hope to eventually just have it on the board somehow, but just looking at their walk rates is a suitable thing to do for now

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s an important aspect of hitting and it’d be easier for us to have a way of indicating that it is. It might make it easier for White Sox fans to know why we have LouBob where we do instead of in the top 10 or something

prospect hound: Chase Chaney, William English (Holmes now?), Connor van Scoyoc, and Dan Nunan are some interesting HS arms angels got late last year in draft. Have you seen them and are any of them worth monitoring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw Chaney last night and wasn’t on it. Yup, WIlliam English changed his last name and added like 40 pounds of muscle. I’ve only seen him hit, though.

Hank Scorpio: Do you think the current prospect value models overly inflate the value of some prospects compared to established players, when considering the risk that they might not ever produce any future value at all? Like if you have a 3WAR starter with 2 years of control worth, lets say 20M in surplus value, and a 50FV pitcher in A-ball supposedly worth 31M in surplus value, there has to be some added inherent value to the certainty of the established player doesn’t there? I see comments like “I wouldnt trade prospect X for Thor because there’s a 40% chance he could be as good and under control for 6 years instead of 3.” It seems so counterintuitive.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with you but you also have to account for the 50 FV prospect ending up better than a 50.

Angels: Jose Suarez had an average curve (imo) for the first time since he was initially called up last night. Is that something you had seem him flash consistently previously? FB/CH are good but definitely needs that third option

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s not a swing and miss hook for me, but he can throw it for strikes in most counts and that’s how most curveballs function these days

jim: If Clint Frazier was still considered a prospect, what would you grade him as right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s that link I promised: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-weeks-prospect-movers-7-26-19/

Philip: Is Luis campusano a off season top 100 candidate?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Jimmy: Your cooment re: Wenceel, does that thinking apply to Luis Garica (WAS). He seems to have really struggled at AA.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Jason N: You have Andres Munoz as a 40+ on the Board. As a 20 year old in the MLB bullpen and touted as a closer (maybe as soon as this year if Yates goes) with a 80 fastball, doesn’t that feel like a higher grade? Or is the reliever penalty on FV really that drastic?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter. FV maps to WAR, so relievers get crushed. If we have a 40+ or 45 on a reliever, it means we love that reliever.

Eric A Longenhagen: so that’s Jordan Hicks, AJ Minter, Seranthony Dominguez, Munoz, Ty Buttrey…guys like that

Eric A Longenhagen: we’ve whiffed on some, too. Josh Staumont I think

Ryan: Have you heard anything about Kaprielian this year? Obviously his career has been derailed several times, but I am still rooting for him to see the big leagues.

Eric A Longenhagen: 90-93 t 95 with minus extension. Gonna have to rely on the secondaries. Backend guy for me now.

Nope: Where do you expect Ryan Vilade and Miguel Vargas to end up defensively?

Eric A Longenhagen: SS and 1B, respectively

SuspectProspect: Two GCL West Yankee names-Jorge Chambuco and Ronny Rojas. Rojas was a big J2 a few years back, hasn’t hit but has a decent eye. Chambuco posting interesting stats. Also, are the Yanks focusing on shorter pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have nada on Rojas but Chambuco has a nasty curveball. Not sure on the shorter pitchers thing but that’s an interesting idea and concept based on a theory I believe that shorter pitchers may be a better bet to stay healthy.

Guest: If the Indians are buyers at the trade deadline which of their prospects do you foresee them dealing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’d move very young guys like last year

sup: Is Ricky Vanasco a dude or just a guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: i have to confess that i dislike that terminology

Eric A Longenhagen: also, I need to ask on him

Evan: Is Deivi Garcia a top 100 guy at this point? I know there’s a lot of reliever risk but the stuff is so nasty and his K rate this year has been pretty unbelievable.

Eric A Longenhagen: …

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Woah Nellie: Do you think Will Smith (LAD) ultimately 1) gets moved entirely out from behind the dish in order to accommodate Ruiz, 2) catches part-time and plays the field part-time (which pos?), or 3) basically only catches, as part of a timeshare with Ruiz?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2

sup: Is Rubendy Jaquez raising his profile at all this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: has pop but mature build and i didn’t think he had a clear position when I saw him

Mike Trout: How much did you like Luis Rengifo as a prospect coming up? He’s a pretty toolsy middle infielder for the Angels who’s performed pretty well in the majors this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: we 45’d him

Eric A Longenhagen: super utility role, 1,5-2 WAR ype

Bryce: What would it take for Hjelle to jump? Is it more about seeing stuff or at some point is his continued effectiveness more important?

Eric A Longenhagen: another guy where I think it’s a 6 fastball and then everything else is just okay

Ryan: Is McClanahan being 20 on the Expos (wink) list more about how deep that system is, or are there real issues there that you see holding him back?

Eric A Longenhagen: that system is incredible

Nope: Alex Bettinger’s numbers are great, but I can’t find a scouting report of him. Is it a similar situation to Alex Wells?

Eric A Longenhagen: I put him on the board this week and his report is one there

Big Joe Mufferaw: Is David Robertson a good comp for Deivi Garcia stuff wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: not really

Gumby: I would guess it would stay mix throughout, but at what age does prospecting transition from focus on tools to results?

Eric A Longenhagen: double-a-ish

Trevor: I am a little ignorant to the ins and outs of the scouting world. Can you explain the advantages of seeing a prospect in person vs video, stats, etc? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: there’s something indescribable about in-person looks, it’s like the way people enjoy vinyl to digital. You get to see the player interact with teammates, umpires, fans, opponents in ways that matter but you don’t get on video. Video gives you the luxury of slowing things down and seeing stuff you wouldn’t with just your eyes, doing hardcore thinking about mechanics. Stats tell you stuff you can’t learn in just a 3-game looks at someone.

Eric A Longenhagen: just use everything, everyone.

romorr: In regards to the Alex Wells question, he is a 40FV, why isn’t he on the Orioles list when 35+FVs are?

Eric A Longenhagen: his player page has a 40 FV from last time he was ranked, it’s maybe from ’18 or ’17

Yonny or Laurel: Yonny Hernandez is a 21 year old in AA (same age as Brujan, younger than Madrigal) and looks like he has similar bat control (based on stats): more BBs than Ks, miniscule SwStrk%. you guys don’t seem to have anything on him. Is it because he is a passive approach guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s maybe a nice little utility type unless it’s a 7 bat or something. Loved watching him in the AZL, glad he’s kept performing.

Steve: Have you seen the West Wing? You and Kiley remind me of Josh and Sam

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s one of those things that has been on my Netflix watch list for a long time and I’ve just never sat and watched

Ian: Gavin Lux has played 20 games in AAA, and has obviously been outrageously good so far. The Dodgers have a ton of middle infield utility types with Hernandez, Taylor and Muncy. Is there a world in which Lux is good/ready enough to force his way onto the playoff roster ahead of Taylor or Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it because he’s a defensive wash with Taylor and a downgrade compared to Hernandez

Eric A Longenhagen: that’d be a big jump, they’d need to get his feet wet soon

Franklin : Tyler Wade= prospect fatigue, I get it … but given his AAA performance is he a MLB guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s an MLB utility guy, yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: lefty stick, some speed, can play all over. really good skillset, gonna have a big league role for a long time

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, i went longer than i intended but that’s cool. see you guys next friday?

Eric A Longenhagen: (chat over)