Eric Longenhagen FanGraphs Chat: 5/24 by Eric Longenhagen May 24, 2018 2:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from Tempe. Let’s get right to it… 2:01 Mertz: Is Corbin Burnes’ recent mediocre performance more of a function of his home park/league, or is he really having problems? Do you see him making any MLB starts this year? 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Very likely the ballpark. Not sure he debuts this year because so many other viable guys are already on the 40-man and Burnes is not. Houser, Woodruff, etc. 2:03 Larry: Still feel like Gorman is the most likely pick for Atlanta? 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Yep 2:03 Dan: Thoughts on Cubs pitching prospects so far this year? From Underwood to Albertos, a lot seems to happening, good and bad. 2:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Most of them have just been okay, Albertos has been really bad and Underqwood has been fine, which is better than he has been. Still see him as a reliever and someone who maxes out as a 40. 2:05 curious: any insight on juwan harris from rutgers? 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Two-sport guy who some teams have off their board for makeup. Plus bat speed, bat control is alright, lower half a little stiff in the box. He’s interesting. 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, 6 run, CF. 2:07 Joey Wendle: If I’m dealt (or another Rays 2B) to the Mariners, what would a decent return be? 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I think Wendle is a 45, so a 45 FV guy from the Mariners list would be good for TB. But I’m not sure there’s a clear fit there, Seattle’s system is quite barren and they’re not selling low on Carlson and Lewis. 2:08 Marlins: what is the buzz on the marlins for the draft? 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: High schoolers 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Edwards, some of the prep arms 2:08 Veeno: Any recent concerns regarding Mitch White’s performance? 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: His inconsistency as a pro, in general, is a little troubling 2:09 Colin Poche: How outstanding have I been? And will I see time at the Trop this season? 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Super good, TB thinks you have an 8 fastball because of the deception 2:09 westcoaster: Saw your Diamondbacks write up. I understand Kristian Robinson getting a 45FV tag now given his age, but if all his tools hit what they are projected to be, are we talking a 60-65FV player here? 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’s the ceiling if everything clicks 2:10 Bored Employee: Can you think of any non-pitching prospects whose entire profile is held back by a lack of arm strength? I’m guessing it would be a guy who was forced to move off of C or SS, but none come to mind. 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Guys whose arm means LF-only. Donnie Dewees the first name that comes to mind. Ben Revere maybe? 2:11 Coppy: Is there anyone outside the top 200 prospects that we should be keeping an eye on? Who’s your favorite guy to make a jump? 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l… 2:12 Bork’s Piercing Green Eyes: How has Alec Hansen’s pitchface looked in extended spring training? Still an 80 grade? 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: His teeth are perfect 2:12 Angels: is it just me or does jahmai jones have a similar minor league arc and perceived toolset to mookie betts 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Just you 2:12 Nick G.: is Nick Gordon ready to be an impact player in the bigs? 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Depends how you define ‘impact’. I don’t think he’s a SS and think he’s the 2B instead of Dozier next year. 2:13 Rohan: I know he’s no longer a prospect, but if you had to throw some grades on Teoscar, what would that look like 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Looks like he’s traded some contact for power but otherwise the grades on his player page are still what I’d have 2:14 Jacob: Who has the highest offensive upside between Connor Scott, Alek Thomas and Nick Schnell? 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Scott, then Schnell, then Thomas 2:14 JBP: Why is Faedo’s velocity down? 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t and can’t know for sure, but this happens to a lot of guys when they go every fifth day instead of once a week. 2:15 PK: Hi. Any new top of the draft tidbits for us? Mize et all? 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: Still just think Mize goes 1, Bart 2, Bohm 3, probably Madrigal 4 (chance Singer), Singer 5 (Madrigal if Singer 4, chance it’s India), then Mets at 6 have been tougher to gauge. 2:17 Jake: With the Soto call up and his seemingly meteoric rise this year, who would you take between him and Acuna now long-term? 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna 2:18 Mike: Have scouts changed their opinion on Mackenzie Gore, since last year? 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Well the scouts seeing him this year are different scouts than last year so no opinions to change. My opinion has not changed. He was 93-96 this spring with 55 or better everything else. 2:19 ericstephenisgod: Have May & Ferguson passed White & Alvarez? 2:20 Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t whack those last two guys so hard after 6 weeks 2:20 Moose: Hearing anything on the ChiSox with their 2nd round pick at this point? Thanks. 2:21 Eric A Longenhagen: College guys. Have heat at ACC tourney right now, Wake/Duke heading to the 12th as we speak 2:21 Jacob: Could Jordan Gorsham be this year’s Nolan Jones in that he has an impact bat / approach that could be had in the 2nd round? 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, think those two are totally different. At least Jones in HS was way different than Groshans is right now. Think he’s in play for Miami and Kansas City, more the latter but not sure if it’s mid round 1 or comp round 2:22 Sean: How much movement was there in the Padres list given current season results? I’m guessing Chris Paddack is seen as a top 10 if not top 6 guy in the Padres system? And is Paddack firmly in the top 60 in all of baseball at this point? 2:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Grades and rankings were cemented in Feb, it just took us forever to build the infrastructure and code for the Board and write the articles. Paddack has shown he’s healthy and def moving up. 2:24 bonnie: If you were casting a baseball flavored remake of Space Jam, who would be your star and who would you pick to make up the MonStars? 2:27 Eric A Longenhagen: It’d be in Spanish. Lindor as the star. Monstars steal skills from Machado, Odubel, Correa, Chapman 2:28 Eric: I’m not buying that Vlad Jr. needs to be in AA for his 3B defense to develop. Moving him to the bigs won’t stall that development will it? I mean, he probably only makes 4 defensive plays per game in the minors… just have him take some grounders during BP and get that bat in the big league lineup. 2:29 Eric A Longenhagen: His defense developing from a fundamental perspective and regressing as his body does whatever the hell it’s gonna do as he enters his 20s are fighting against one another. He’ll be up this year and okay at 3B for a while but after that, who knows? We’re clearly dealing with a freak of nature here, all bets are off. he could be fine into his mid-20s at third or dedicate himself to defense and extended his stay there. 2:30 Cody: Errol Robinson has smoked a few balls over the last few days against Colin Rea and Quantrill. Obviously it’s an extremely small sample size, but if he had a slight improvement in power, is he a good utility guy? 2:30 Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s the ceiling 2:30 Bryce: Do you think the Padres will take Weathers at 7, or will they go with someone like Liberatore or Stewart? 2:32 Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s Libby with a chance they cut a deal with a prep arm under slot at 7 and the two names that make sense for that are Weathers (who we don’t think has another home until the mid teens) or Mike Vasil who was up to 96 back from injury this week and who we know SD had extra heat in to see. But I’d still just mock Libby. An underslot deal at 7 implies they’re trying to move someone over slot to pick 46 and there are too many teams with multiple picks in the 29-40 range for me to be confident my guy gets to me at 46 2:32 JaKob: Hi Eric, thanks for the chat.. In your opinion which pitcher and hitter have the highest ceilings in the draft? 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Aside from the obvious names I think Aaron Hernandez could be really good if you get him to locate. Too many HS arms to name. 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Logan Gilbert has sneaky ceiling, too. 2:35 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I have no idea who to ask this, but Anthony Banda added a slider in the spring, giving him a four-pitch mix. Through 109 pitches so far this season, he has thrown 88 fastballs, 20 changeups, 1 curve, and nothing else. Why would he be doing this?https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/anthony-banda-607455?stat… 2:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Did he really add one or was he experimenting with one because TB was lukewarm on his curveball and trying to see if a slider was better? 2:36 Andy: Anyone standing out for the Brewers in extended spring training? 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Jean Carmona. Has slimmed down, was spraying good velo when I saw him earlier this week. Je”von Ward also looking more comfortable at the plate. 2:37 Jack: Are you getting any read on what Oakland might do at 9? Seems like reports on them are all over the place 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Could be falling college bat like Swaggerty or India, Gorman if he doesn’t go ahead of them. 2:38 yoni spero: with players like ozzie albies adding power to his resume without showing any semblence of it in the minors, how should teams value contact hitters like luis urias who can develop power in the majors vs. power hitters who seem to never gain good contact skills in the majors? 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great question that every front office should be asking itself 2:39 Pakistan: How far do you see as the lowest reasonable spot Jon India could drop to? 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Mid teens 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Like 14 would be a nice fit 2:40 DBRuns: If my team is picking 21-30, what’s a reasonable expectation for WAR from that pick in the first six years of service time? What’s the probability from someone at that pick even contributing at the Major League level? 2:40 Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-dr… 2:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Most guys we have in the late rd1 area are 45 FVs 2:41 Mike: Are the Red Sox locked in on college bats at 26 or is there any chance they would be interested in one of the many HS arms? 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldn’t surprise me if they saw good value on the board and took it even if the player/advisor is putting out a big number because they see the comp teams with more money coming up. It’s basically what happened with Groome. 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Also not sure you like the college bats that will be around at that point any more than some of the prep OF. Like Eierman/Hoerner are late 1st rd types but you like them more than a falling Turang? Or Seigler? 2:43 connor: I got a comment that the Rockies aren’t promoting Tom Murphy because Wolters is such a good compliment to Ianetta. The guy is hitting .120!!! What are your thoughts? 2:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Wolters is an elite makeup guy and great defender. He IS a good compliment to Ianetta. Murphy can’t catch. 2:44 Ozuna’s Alarm Clock: Yawn. Hi Eric. When evaluating a pitcher as he progresses from A, AA ,AAA what factors do you look at to bump up your rating. I am talking about the things a scout eyes see vs. the unwashed masses. Better K rate, less BB we all see in stats, but its the small things I would like to hear about. ie..Bieber for Cleveland..he is making some noise with a few nice games at AAA…what propels him higher in your ratings. Thank You. 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Part of the equation is just increased confidence that comes from upper level performance as well as proximity to the Majors which factors into our rankings. With Bieber it’s mostly proximity stuff because the stuff is the same, he’s just not in A-ball anymore like he was last year. 2:47 They Call Me Jay Tibbs!: Please humor me because I’m obsessed. The Blue Jays call up Vladdy Jr. on Thursday June 7th, which would give him approx 250 PA at AA. This is the start of a four-game home stand with the Orioles. They then have a three-game road series against the Rays. So you start him off with the worst pitching staff in the league and then a series in Tampa where no one pays attention anyway. He starts 3 games a week at 3B, and 3 at DH. Donaldson can’t stay healthy anyway, and Vladdy learns from him, and even more, Solarte, about playing 3B. I’d prefer you not fight me, but offer thoughts. 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Seek help 2:47 Bryce: Is Daniel Lynch a first rounder? How high could he go? 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Maybe late teens? 2:50 Bennum: White Sox have a big crunch coming in Hi-A once Robert comes back (Basabe, Rutherford, Call, Booker), who would you promote to AA, especially since Luis Gonzalez could probably be moved up too. 2:51 Eric A Longenhagen: I think you promote Call. He’s the oldest, is okay in CF, Polo not hitting well the level above as mostly a CF and Call’s realistic projection is as a 4th OF anyway, so that let’s you mix and match at Double-A with Call/Polo in a way that mirrors what each of them would probably being doing down the line 2:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Lou Bob starts playin here in AZ next week, btw 2:52 James: Could Cionel Perez make an impact in the big leagues this year, perhaps as a bullpen guy? 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: Sure 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: ****I mean pick 38 for SD not 46***** 2:52 Adam: How close is it between Liberatore and Weathers for the top HS LHP in the draft? 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think it is 2:53 Bored Employee: Calvin Mitchell seems restricted to 1B/LF and isn’t projected for plus hit or power. Seems to me like most of those guys end up in the “others of note” section. Did anything in particular separate him? 2:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Advanced bat 2:53 Adam: Does Cal Quantrill suck now or is there something the stat line isn’t telling us about approach/execution? 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: He doesn’t suck, he’s just fine, which is below where people expected and because of sports fan culture and the way it discourse spreads on the internet, now the narrative is that he sucks. 2:54 Andrew: India seems to be moving up the boards – chances he’s not around when Mets pick? 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: I think they exist but are small 2:54 Angels: is there any video of deveaux that will get posted soon? 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve got a week of extended yet to collect and then I’ll spit up what I’ve got 2:55 DBRuns: Nico Hoerner seems to fit the profile of college IFs the Indians have drafted in the past (good bat to ball skills, no real position, low strikeouts). Is this a guy they’re in on this spring? 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Have them more with OFs but generally agree with you. Also think Hoerner fits TB’s preferences like a glove. 2:56 Anthony: How much leverage do college juniors actually have in negotiations? Could a guy like Mize actually threaten to return to Auburn if the Tigers took him and low-balled him? Senior signees seem to always get screwed 2:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Best case scenario for this is Appel, right? He did okay. 2:56 John: Back when Mookie Betts was a prospect, did you think he would turn out to be this good? 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: No and I know a scout who loved him and was still like 2 whole grades light. 2:57 Hinkie: IYO … where will Manny Machado and Bryce Harper be playing next season ? 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Philly and Washington 2:57 Rick C: Any concerns with Kyle Wright’s performance this year? FIP likes him more than his ERA, but he’s not striking out all that many and his walks are up. For a 22 year old at AA I’d hope for better. 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say ‘concern’ but would say moderate disappointment 2:58 Sean: I know you guys were lower on him than most, but Keibert Ruiz is striking out only 8% (!!) of the time. In AA. As a 19 year old. As a catcher. That’s pretty impressive right? 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 2:58 Anthony: Do you ever try to evaluate catcher game-calling or is that made impossible by organizational directives for a pitcher to throw a mixed repertoire for his own development? 2:59 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s hard to know what fingers the guy is putting down from behind the plate if the pitcher shakes him off. There’s enough missing info there that it’s tough to mail down without looking at CF camera video. 2:59 Joey: Scouting reports on Shane Bieber show more of a mediocre pitcher but the results have been great. Any change of opinion on him between beginning of the year and now? 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: He has elite slider command of a 50 or 55 slider so it plays like a 70. Sergio Romo built an entire career off of that skill. Bieber’s gonna be a good big leaguer. 3:00 Mike the White Sox Fan: You mentioned in the podcast that Rojas is a guy right now. What kind of grade guy is he? And is his bat good enough to have FV of a 50? 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe he’s a 40? 3:01 Logan Allen: Am I the best starting pitcher in the Padres minor league system? 3:01 Eric A Longenhagen: … 3:01 Rich Hahn: Any chance I take anyone other than Madrigal if he’s there at 4? 3:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe Singer 3:02 Schiraldi: Kelenic to the Mets–any chance? 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: They had heat in when I saw him last Sunday so I think there’s a chance. 3:04 Hinkie: Phillies don’t have a second or third round pick. Have you heard of any players they may have an interest in for later in the draft ??? 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: No. I expect they’ll be college heavy again this year because of a lack of financial flexibility and maybe sprinkle in an interesting HS guy or two in the mid to late rounds. 500-750k type guys. 3:05 Purple Mays Haze: Best example of 70/80 hit tool but 20 run and field in the minors right now? 3:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, that’s tough. Maybe Nate Orf? I don’t think he’s a 2 runner or anything but I think he hits a ton and that’s kinda it. 3:07 Bert: Jon Duplantier’s #s are good. Is it simply a matter of health w/ him? 3:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Arm has been healthy for over a year now, his issue this spring was a hammy. You have to look way back to his days at Rice to find arm issues so wouldn’t call him an injury risk right now. He looked good this spring. Up to 97, plus slider, avg change. delivery is weird but it workd. 3:09 Winter is Here: Any new information about the potential shake up at the top of the board? Is Joey Bart really the most logical alternative if the Tigers don’t go with Mize at 1-1? 3:10 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be on Madrigal instead of Bart just because I think he’s better but it’s not as if I think that gap is gigantic. I think Mize’s injury history is such that you have a conversation about alternatives and prepare in case something happens to Mize, but still take Mize. 3:10 Luis Urias: When will I get the call? 3:11 Eric A Longenhagen: I hope soon but really don’t know. 3:11 Bravesy McBravesface: What do the Braves like about Gorman? Seems like most everyone else has bailed on him as a top prep bat. 3:13 Eric A Longenhagen: 70 raw, if you think the kid is motivated to shed some of the weight he put on ahead of his senior year then he stays at third pretty easily. Only thing I’m hung up on at that point is the swing and miss he showed this spring, but he performed against better arms last summer so… 3:13 Jack: Higher ceiling: Canario or Deveaux? 3:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Deveaux because he’s more likely to stay in CF 3:14 Bored Employee: How does doubles power get incorporated into scouting grades? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: If it’s a huge gap between 2Bs and HRs we think about it in terms of ISO 3:15 James: Friendly update for everyone that was concerned about Fernando Tatis Jr hitting .177/.231/.333 in April – He is hitting .333/.429/.644 for May. I think he’ll be OK. 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Same 3:15 Mike: How bad is Seth Beer’s defense? Any athleticism there or is a going to be a straight up DH/1B? 3:16 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s no bueno. Homered and doubled twice yesterday but muffed an easy popup. 1B/DH for me. 3:16 Run Home: Any Brewer draft news??? 3:17 Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing overly specific 3:17 John: Where would last season Rule 5 picks Miguel Diaz and Luis Torrens rank on your Padres Prospect list if still eligible? 3:17 Eric A Longenhagen: 40s 3:17 Bob: Is Shed Long on track to be a top 100 prospect and maybe a 3 WAR player down the line? 3:18 Eric A Longenhagen: We’re focused on draft stuff but I have an updated 100 drafted and he’s on it. 3 WAR is probably close to the ceiling. ‘ 3:18 DRL: Can you throw out any current big league comps coming out of college for Mize in terms of guys we thought were about as polished as they could get and didn’t offer much “upside” from what we have already seen from him? 3:19 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s what we’d describe as ‘Variance’ rather than upside, because I think the ‘upside’ of a guy who sits 93-96 with a plus cutter, slider and splitter is pretty high. Rodon was seen as a low-variance guy. 3:19 Kit: How did Alec Hansen end up looking? 3:20 Eric A Longenhagen: 92-95 in the first, 92-93 in the second. Slider was bad, curve was average, saw one okay change. He threw strikes, which I think is most important for him, and I’m not worried the secondaries aren’t crisp because he hasn’t thrown in a while. 3:20 Run Home: What’s the scoop on Jayson Schroeder from Wash HS? 3:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Up to 94, solid average breaking ball. Lotta harder-throwing prep arms ahead of him but he’s a good prospect. 3:21 Cw: The Phillies are actually pretty thin in the minors, not a single impact talent awaiting 3:21 Eric A Longenhagen: The curse of having graduated Kingery, Crawford, Williams, Alfaro, Hoskins in the last year is now your system ‘sucks’ 3:21 Bob: Have you had a chance to see Will Benson? His BABIP is very low, but his BB%, K% and game power have all moved in the right direction. 3:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Totally agree that the raw numbers aren’t great but peripherals indicate he’s fine. Saw him in the spring and folded those thoughts into CLE prospect list. 3:22 Mike the White Sox Fan: What’s your least favorite kind of Baseball fan 3:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, I get that baseball is this huge thing that lots of people enjoy in different ways and I think it’d be self-centered to police the way people enjoy something. Having said that, it’s Zack Hample. 3:23 Taco Tuesday: Rockets or Warriors? 3:23 Eric A Longenhagen: GS 3:24 Jack: Is Poche better than the current (non-wild) version of Jose Alvarado? 3:24 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so. Alvarado’s stuff is freaking nuts. 3:24 Sir nerdlington: What’re your thoughts on neuroscouting? 3:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Conflicted 3:26 ODB: What can be made of Corey Ray’s start to the season? Reason for optimisim? 3:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely 3:26 angelsintheoutfield: I’m sure “theboard” update will answer this, but in lieu of of that is Jose Suarez firmly say a 50FV now(instead of the 40FV he was)? He’s been damn impressive as a 20 year old in AA. 3:27 Eric A Longenhagen: More 45 than 50 but trending that way. Only one or two guys have moved their FV a full grade at this point. 3:27 Mark: If you were to assume that Yordan Alvarez ends up at 1B, would that bump him down to the 45 FV range? Or is the perception that he projects to mash enough that he’ll be above average at 1B as well? 3:27 Eric A Longenhagen: No, we think he hits enough to profile at first 3:28 Anders: If Soto is a success this season, do you see that impacting Harper/Nationals negotiations in the offseason? Would they be less willing to pony up if they have a decent replacement? 3:28 Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s a great article idea. It would have to impact their thinking, right? If Robles and Soto are both 60s or better for you. ALso tough to tell Jesus he’s too expensive 3:29 Bored Employee: Altuve has to be in your Monstars remake 3:29 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, you’re right. 3:30 TKDC: Since you are in Tempe where South Carolina is playing softball tomorrow, care to tell us what you think of Carlos Cortes and if the trend of short guys with power will juice is draft prospects? 3:30 Eric A Longenhagen: 45 bat, 55 raw power LF. Late 2nd, 3rd rd 3:31 Topper Harley: Predicted first to the majors from this year’s draft? 3:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Durbin Feltman 3:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, that’s it for me. See you next week.