Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat 7/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good day, sirs and madams. I’m just finishing writing up the prospects in the Chapman deal so give me a few minutes…

Eric A Longenhagen: I also require liquid refreshment.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, holy crap there are a lot of you here.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, let me start by plugging some stuff and letting you know that, after hitting Chicago for the Under Armour game and getting back home to AZ last night, I was forced to eat salad for breakfast. It was really terrible.

Eric A Longenhagen: So here’s the link to my Bregman callup piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-astros-call-up-alex-bregman/

Eric A Longenhagen: Dahl callup piece has been filed and is just waiting for editing. Same goes for the reports on the Cubs prospects sent to NYY in the Chapman deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s answer some questions

Brandon: Obligatory question of the day. What are the Cubs doing? A lot to give up for a rental closer….

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not quite as high on Torres as some, but yes if you’re doing value-based analysis he is a lot.

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s also something to be said for adding the most explosive closer of all time, the best in the game right now, in effort to end a historic drought of winlessness.

Eric A Longenhagen: If they have a parade, who cares?

Trent: What are your thoughts on isan Diaz? He now leads the Midwest league in hr’s

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts who have seen him there love him. Most think he’s a 2B but the bat is still enough for him to be an above average everyday guy.

Nick: Will you being doing a write-up on the guys you saw at the UA game?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, it just got pushed by last night’s insanity.

Greg: I have a guy in my dynasty the continues to neglect his team. We have 11 other teams that put in max effort in season and out season. When should I pull the rip cord? Should I bring his replacement in a week before the trade deadline to better the roster or should we wait? The roster is a tire fire and needs major attention.

Eric A Longenhagen: Go find Bill Mitchell on Twitter. He’s at @billazbbphotog. He’s deputy commissioner of my sim league and dealt with this exact thing last year. If you really want my advice well, I’m kind of mean to people in situations like yours.

Andrew: What do you think of Matt Thaiss so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too early to alter projections on a guy who has only played in 30 games, especially if we’re basing our opinions on an advanced college hitter who is hitting in low level ball.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thaiss was an analytically friendly pick, but we’re talking about a guy who was announced as a catcher and then immediately moved to 1B. He has four homers this year in rookie/low-a ball.

Josh: Does Anderson Espinoza or Adrian Morejon have a higher ceiling? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Espinoza has a higher ceiling. The stuff is more explosive. Morejon is more about polish.

derek: Thoughts on a couple young Dodgers prospects, Edwin Rios and yadier Alvarez. Alvarez seems like he could move up the top 100 lists quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve written a bunch about Alvarez, so go dig that up if you want a full report. In short, he’s basically 94-98, touching 100 with ease. Every time I see him the breaking balls are a little different and I think he and LA are trying to find what works best for him yet, but I love him and he will be a top 100 guy for me this offseason.

Eric A Longenhagen: On Rios…

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Mitchell actually sent me a message yesterday asking about him because KATOH likes him. He’s a college draftee raking in the Cal League so take his numbers with a grain of salt. He has big power, plus raw. It’s one of those exaggerated, golfy left-handed swings with big time uppercut and a pretty, high finish. His hands are really messy and I can’t find anyone (including me) who thinks he’s going to be a 50 hit tool guy. He keeps things under control enough that we’re not talking about a Carlos Peguero/Juan Francisco type, but this is the kind of bat that absolutely destroys the Cal League.

Matysek: Any thoughts about the hit/power tools of Christin Stewart, Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Ronald Guzman? Which guy is the first to hit 3rd or 4th in a MLB lineup?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rank them like this by hit/game power combo: Stewart, Guzman, Hoskins, Tellez.

Richard: Hello, I’m trying to get more into following the lower minors, who are the guys to pay attention to on the AZL Giants team?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sandro Fabian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EgqJoI9nMA (WARNING: Bat flip NSFW)

Bob: Willie Calhoun has been powering up in AA this year. Thinks it’s the league or is this guy for real?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s plus raw but pull-only and no defensive position. I buy that he hits, though not to the degree he has in the minors, but it’s hard to make a total evaluative call when I have no idea where to put him, defensively.

Anthony: How much of a step back does the Cubs system take after the Montgomery and Chapman trades?

Eric A Longenhagen: A moderate but not devastating one. Vogelbach had no place on the big league club and it’s likely that Torres would not have, either. This is exactly what the farm system is for when you’re a contending team. If anything, trading Vogey and Torres while Contreras is set to graduate really just shifts the strength of the farm system to some of the arms, though Happ and Eloy are their best prospects now, in my opinion.

RP: Is Dylan Cozens an everyday player? I’ve thrown a Ryan Klesko comp on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Been working on writing up the slew of Phillies prospects I’ve seen lately and started digging into Cozens. He’s striking out at a 29% clip this year. Over the last six+ years, I can’t find anyone other than Derek Norris who has had a K% above 25% and done anything in the Majors. Nobody.

Floyd: Do you see Jose De Leon as a #2, a #3 or …?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep going…

Harry Caray’s Ghost: Do you think Dahl is up for good? Or is this just a quick look while the Rockies are using the DH?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably depends upon what happens at the deadline with Blackmon and CarGo.

Eric A Longenhagen: Reports on the new Yankees prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-aroldis-chapman-deal/

Dave: There are a lot of nice OF prospects in baseball right now, most with 4 or 5 tools (Margot, Meadows, Brinson, Dahl, Zimmer, Frazier, to name a few that have 3+ tools). Do you see any as being head-and-shoulders above the others in terms of fantasy impact?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meadows and Brinson have the highest ceilings. Margot is more glove/contact but there’s power in there if he makes some mechanical adjustments. Dahl has pop and it’s going to be fun to see how it plays at Coors but I do think he’s going to swing and miss. Frazier’s probably 55 game power.

Rahul: So if you were the yankees how would handle the potential log jam of Torres, Mateo and Wade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just let them play. These things usually sort themselves out.

Bob: How has Yusniel Diaz looked so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Toolsy but frustrating.

Mike T.: i’s only been about 100 PAs but do you like or not like anything out of Vlad Jr. so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge effort in the swing, 1B-only body. I’m apprehensive.

Mike_C: Does Bregman’s promotion officially take him off the market, or was he already off limits?

Eric A Longenhagen: Houston can’t really afford to deal away potential All Stars who they’d have under cheap team control for 6 years.

Erik: It looks like many analysts think that Torres was too much to give up for the Cubs. Does that suggest that the Cubs think Torres isn’t as good as the industry thinks he is? Or do analysts just undervalue relievers and overvalue prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the latter and I think we too often refuse to allow context to color our analysis.

Danny: Does is make more sense now for teams to turn all their fringy hard throwers into relievers right away? Seeing how much they are getting back on the market

Eric A Longenhagen: Aroldis Chapman is not nor ever was a “fringy hard throwing reliever”. He’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

Joe: Who would rather stab in fantasy for a couple years down the road and why: Kyle Lewis, Groome, Aiken, Senzel, Bellinger, or Yohander Mendez? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I had Groome atop my draft board this year so he’s probably number one, especially considering what just happened to Lewis, who I also love. Mendez and Senzel are probably the next tier down while Bellinger and Aiken bring up the rear. Aiken was reportedly in the upper-80s during his last AZL start. His velo has been ticking down since Extended.

Adam: It’s obviously too soon to call Brady Aiken a bust, but is it too soon to be worried?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t fret just yet, he’s still basically rehabbing. But if he’s 87-91 next spring then yeah, that would feel bad. Everyone is rooting for that kid.

Deeds: Any early reports on Alec Hansen? Seemed like a great get for the WSox in the 2nd round.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks like he’s working in a curveball after being primarily FB/SLD in college. I tossed him and other Sox prospects into my Fulmer callup piece, aqui: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-carson-fulmer-and-other-white-sox-prospects/

Frankie Fast Hands: He’s old for a prospect, but Yandy Diaz is on a 14 game hitting streak, slashing .473/.544/.673 over that span. Is Juan Uribe’s defense that much of an upgrade over Diaz? Or is it purely money and clubhouse chemistry keeping him down?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t believe in Yandy’s bat. Too much swing and miss. Good defender, though.

ChopChop: Can you name the qualified 2B with a higher WRC+ Than Jose Altuve? HINT: his ISO is 70 points higher and I have no idea why.

Eric A Longenhagen: Is it Murphy? I’m guessing Murphy. Did not expect him to have this kind of season.

Apoplectic in Arvada: Does Dahl hit for average in the majors, or has his profile become a power/OBP combo long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure if I buy into the random uptick in walk rate he’s shown this season but I do think you’re right about the swing and miss. I think it’s more power/speed, sort of a Lite Beer Joc Pederson statistical profile with really good defense.

Eric A Longenhagen: And that’s not to say I think Dahl will be worse than Pederson, just this profile isn’t quite as extreme as Joc’s.

Zorak: Thomas Szapucki seems to be the big bright spot for the Mets’ stable of pitcher prospects (not including 2016 draftees). Not a lot seems out there for him outside of Mets blogs, care to offer some thoughts on his potential? Thanks as always!

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone asked me about Mets arms in maybe my first or second chat and I mentioned Szapucki (self-horn tooting alert). There’s plus velo and some feel for spinning a breaking ball (both of which are great starts) but the shape of the breaker is inconsistent and the arm slot is low, which means he’s going to need to develop a changeup to offset how early RHHs will see the fastball. He’s interesting but a long way off.

ChopChop: I own Billy McKinney in a dynasty league. Does this trade help me out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, because of the hitting environment in New York. But I’m down on McKinney as a prospect, in general.

Cutler: Though he may have a body better suited for football, what do you see out of Brad Zunica?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah you’re on it. Huge kid, no physical projection, plus bat speed and future plus raw but lots of swing and miss for me last summer and this spring. 1B only, so i’d like to see more bat to ball.

Homerin Hal Hill: I saw your earlier write up on Cle farm system (nice job by the way). Do you think that adding a guy or 2 like Yu-Cheng Chang and J. Hillman or even Meija to any trade for Lucroy and Smith would be even for both teams? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: It depends on what’s already in the trade, I suppose. Of the guys you mentioned I’d first part with Chang, who I don’t think can play SS but can hit.

njs: how do scouts measure bat speed? is there a place i can go to look up those stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thousands upon thousands of reps, and even still it’s hard to evaluate. It’s done with the naked-eye, though there is some technology that measures it now at showcases and the like. But on a high school field in rural Georgia? Eyeballs.

Colin: Hi Eric two questions relating to Cardinals’ SS. (1) What kind of production do you see Diaz contributing going forward? (2) Can you give me a comp for Delving Perez? I’ve heard JJ Hardy, Jose Reyes, Carlos Correa, and Brandon Crawford, but those four are very different players.

Eric A Longenhagen: When I saw a lot of Aledmys Diaz in the Fall League I thought he wasn’t quite good enough for SS (at least for me) and that the swing was geared to heavily for line drives that he’d have a hard time hitting for enough power to profile at third. I considered him a utility type or low-end regular at either second or third and am still skeptical that what we’ve seen from him this year is sustainable. Of course, Cardinals prospects have made all of us look bad before.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not going to give you a comp for Delvin and the reason I won’t is illustrated in your question, they’re ultimately just confusing and misinformative. I will tell you that he was #2 on my pre-draft board before he failed his PED test and I think he’s exceptionally talented.

P-Nats: Max Schrock has been a blast to watch so far in A ball. What are his weaknesses that will stop him from rising fast?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli going full-on Ricardo Lopez.

Erik: Has JP Crawford’s stock gone up or down this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been stable. He’s continued to toy with different footwork and started having success when he began getting his front foot down earlier, sometime in (I think) May? I’d have to check my notes for exactly when it was.

The other Kyle: Any news on severity of Glasnow injury? Hoping they’re just playing it cautious and it’s something that wouldn’t impact long-term outlook.

Eric A Longenhagen: Well it’s the shoulder, so that’s already not good. No idea how long he’ll be on the shelf.

Jojo the Monkey: What do you see as the most likely outcome for Sean Newcomb — top end of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end of the rotation, or high-leverage reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been championing Newcomb since college and I still believe he has a chance to be a #2/3 type of arm, but I’m checking my watch more often.

Matt: Who was that kid hitting 98 at the UA game Saturday? Riley Pint 2.0?

Eric A Longenhagen: We had Hunter Greene up to 98, so that might be who you’re talking about. He’s ridiculous. Hit a few balls completely out of Wrigley during the pre-game HR derby and then was 95-98 in his inning of work. It’s a 40 slider right now and I’d like to see some improvement there before anointing him 2017’s top prep arm, but he’s an exceptional athlete and I thin kit will come.

Jojo the Monkey: Who do you have as the top 3 amateurs for the 2017 draft, right now (I know it’s way too early, but there must be a few guys you really like)?

Eric A Longenhagen: The prep guys who have stuck out are Greene and Jordon Adell. Adell has 70 bat speed and an idea of how to manipulate the barrel. He too, parked some balls onto Waveland Ave this weekend.

Sean from Tampa: Busy day for you…

Eric A Longenhagen: I got off the plane and learned of all the stuff that had gone down while I was in the air and immediately went home to write, then was up until 4 writing and sourcing, then woke up to Cameron basically telling me the trade was done at 8. I smell horrible right now.

Josh: Whereabouts in AZ do you live? I was there this past weekend doing vacation/house hunting combo. Recommendations for good neighborhoods? I’m in my 30s, like to be within shouting distance of nightlife.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in central Tempe and there are too many college kids here for me, let alone someone actively seeking quiet.

Eric A Longenhagen: The PokeStops are lit, though.

Josh: Thoughts on Lucas Erceg? He has already been promoted once to Low-A ball and has looked impressive. Did the Brewers get a steal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Talent-wise, yes they did. There were some off the field issues at Cal and Menlo that scouts were concerned about and that’s why he fell. Love the skillset, hope he grows up.

Matt: Do you think Blake Rutherford was top 10 talent in this year’s draft? What is a reasonable prediciton for him – majors by 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he was right in that 7-11 range for me. He is older than the typical recent HS grad so I think it’s fair to expect him to move a little more quickly than his peers. 2019 might be a little aggressive but it’s not insane.

ShawnDC: What’s the upside on Lazaro Armenteros? He seems to have wildly varying scouting reports

Eric A Longenhagen: Big upside, huge risk. Full report….

Eric A Longenhagen: Here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2-scouting-reports-prospects-11-25/#more-224267

Philosoraptor: Dumb question: is it possible for a prospect to have a higher “Game Power” score than “Raw Power”? Like, he’s not really that naturally powerful, but makes such good contact that it really plays up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a dumb question because Bobby Bradley got me thinking about his exact thing. Because Raw power and game power are really different things, I do think it’s possible.

Eric A Longenhagen: Raw power is just how far you can hit a baseball relative to your peers, but really isn’t impacted by how consistently you can do it.

Eric A Longenhagen: So I think there are two types of theoretical hitters who can have more game power than raw power: The guy you mentioned who makes a really high quality of contact and the guy whose swing is so geared for loft that a disproportionately high ratio of his balls in play are in the air.

Lark: What sort of future does Brennan Lund have in the majors? Similar case to your Thaiss answer, I know, but is there any chance he hits 60% of this at higher levels and turns out well?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Lund last spring and though he was okay, more a fit in an outfield corner for me than in CF where he played at BYU. And not just because of the body but because his feel for center wasn’t great. He’s a strong kid with some bat speed and leverage to the swing, but he’s more of a fourth OF type for me. Great that he’s hitting though.

Adam: Why are you not as high on Torres as others?

Eric A Longenhagen: Less confident that he’s a SS and, even if he is, I’m kind of a snob about defense there.

GoTribe: Yu-Cheng Chang was mentioned as of interest to the Yankees in a possible trade. What are your thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-indians-prospects-2700-miles-apart/

Diazzz : Talk to me about Dom Smith. Scouts were split coming into season but he’s playing well. Potential 1st division regular with .290/.350/.460?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve long been a fan. Think your slahs line is reasonable.

Drew: Re: 4/5 tool OFs–Where does Nick Williams fit in that group? Or does he?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous bat speed and bat control but I still the the approach is hyper-aggressive and that it will dilute his output. He can run but it’s hard to see him getting on base enough to make an impact in the steals category. Will probably still hit 18-22 homers, though.

Nate: Do you think prospect pitchers will have more success in the Majors if their best secondary pitch is a changeup rather than a breaking ball? Is there any evidence to suggest that?

Eric A Longenhagen: All else equal, if you’re asking me to chose between a fastball/changeup and fastball/curveball guy at the Major League level, I’m taking the changeup guy. If we’re talking about prospects, give me the guy with natural curveball feel. Generally, it’s easier to develop a changeup.

John: How has Jhailyn ortiz looked?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good. Philly was a little bit worried last year when he signed because of the direction his body was headed, but things are under control there now and 70 raw power plays pretty nice in the GCL.

Conner: Where have you stood on Byron Buxton throughout the last few years? Is this utter lack of production just a result of adjusting to the big leagues or something more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Breaking ball recognition has always been poor. Specifically with sliders. When he fails to identify them and tries to pull a pitch that ends up on the outer half, his plate coverage disappears.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s just a case where Buxton is so physically gifted that he hasn’t had to make any adjustments until the big league level. I still think he’s going to be a really good big leaguer, just that it’s going to take some time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Remember, this was a kid pre-draft who the industry was worried was raw. And he had nothing but success until he got to Minnesota.

Deeds: Does Francis Martes get a call-up this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it. That team is in a playoff race and I don’t think tossing a 20 year old with strike throwing issues into that situation is a good idea.

Nathan: What do you think about Brayan Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s the Mariners OF from Venezuela who signed for like $1.8 mil back in 2014. Just got stateside last week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotten average run times down the line from him so far and it looks like he may have ditched switch-hitting.

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks okay, but I’m not willing to draw any definitive conclusion there just yet. So early, not just for him but for me watching him.

NYTT: Joey Wentz was 90-91 in his first start in danville. is that concerning and how much projection does he have left?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’s had fluctuations in velo over the last 18 months or so (it’s why he worked out as a 1B during last summer’s showcases) and I think it’s more a product of the rigors of pro ball. Even if he settles in throwing 90-93, the repertoire curveball and changeup projection are both really good.

Joe: Amed Rosario: future 10 HR, .300, 30 SB offensive player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re light on the power. Easy plus raw.

I want the FO to leave: Dawel Lugo and Domingo Leyba have played really well this year. What do you see the, as going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been a fan of Leyba. Lugo is twitchy and explosive and I think he could be a decent, power/first utility type who plays 3B, the corner OF spots, maybe some second.

Mike: Who’s the next Altuve?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Part of what makes players like Altuve special is that they come out of nowhere. Someone is undoubtedly lurking in the æther, and I promise you I’m looking for him. But as soon as I (or someone else) finds him, he ceases to be the next Altuve.

Conner: Were do you think Jeff Hoffman’s floor/ceiling are at? Mike Nikorak? Do Colorado pitchers lose faith in their careers before ever getting to Coors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Hoffman and, before his injury, I had him atop my draft board. I think he could be a good #3. Nikorak has been more 88-92 with sink for me. He’s a raw arm from the northeast, so things are more in flux there than they are for others. He’s throwing more strikes, though.

Zorak: Can you just have multi-hour chats every day until like november? Reading anything not-baseball related on the internet is too depressing

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve lost all concept of time, Zorak.

Mike: You can’t leave us Dodger fans hanging, Eric. Did you mean up or down regarding Jose De Leon? If down, why? Is it the fielding?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re right, I’m sorry. I think he’s a #4, an average, mid-rotation starter. Reports on his secondaries just haven’t justified anything more than that and I thin there’s more risk than is usual for an arm that close to the majors because of the injuries and velo fluctuations we’ve seen this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you want him to come up and help the club this year, I think that’s possible, I just don’t think he’s a long term stud.

Justin: What kind of value do you think the Rays could get for Archer? And would you do it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tampa is kicking back and waiting for someone to offer them the equivalent of the Louisiana Purchase. No pressure to deal there. I think Texas has the ammo to get a deal done if they want, but it would cut them pretty deep.

Bob: Gilbert Lara is really young, and started out hot for a month or two last summer before fading. He’s struggled this year as well and is age-appropriate now for level. Time to worry? Be patient?

Eric A Longenhagen: Feel to hit just evaporated late last year. I assumed he was gassed and wrote as much, but I’m starting to sweat a little bit about Lara and some of the other bats in that system.

CW: Bregman/Dahl- trade either in a keeper and cash in on the hype? If so, what should I shoot for in a 10 teamer? Or sit and enjoy them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep Bregman, move Dahl.

Hank: Best college bat in the 2017 draft? Jeren Kendall?

Eric A Longenhagen: Based on what I’ve seen/heard so far, yes.

Thomas: Who was #1 on your pre draft board? (Did you publish it somewhere)

Eric A Longenhagen: Groome. My board was on a whiteboard in my office and I used it to help sort through guys with Keith, but the board we had at ESPN was mostly based on his preferences. They weren’t all that different.

Bobby Blownilla: What is your favorite color or color combination to play in MTG?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jund

Erik: What do you think of Chris Mitchell’s stats-only KATOH system? Is it prone to missing wildly on certain types of players? Does it make you think twice when you see it love some players that you’re down on (such as Dylan Cozens)?

Eric A Longenhagen: The stats either confirm what I’m seeing/hearing or force me to go back and re-evaluate. They’re never dismissed. I consume Chris’ work voraciously, if only because I’m paranoid about being wrong.

vivian: POOTIE

Vunky: Make a vunky

Lipitor: Lipids are important for the snips

Eric A Longenhagen: Am I hallucinating now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’m taking the rapidly increasing surreality of your questions as a sign that I need to stop and you need to return those emails your boss sent you before she comes over and reams you out in front of the rest of the office.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been told my David Dahl callup piece will be up tomorrow so check that out. I’m going to shower. See you all next week.