Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/10/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from windy Tempe where I’m working on the Giants prospect list and doubling back on my international bonus info to have as accurate a picture as I can for next week’s signing period kickoff…

Eric A Longenhagen: ICYMI in the last week or so, I wrote about the Luzardo trade Jesús (Luzardo) Is a Phillie | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: The Gavin Lux Trade: Reds Greenlight Gavin Lux Trade With Dodger Blue | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: the Diego Cartaya trade: Dodgers Trade Stunted Catching Prospect Diego Cartaya to Twins for Hard-Throwing DSL Arm | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: and the Rockies system: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/colorado-rockies-top-42-prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: How the Giants list and the Int’l list sequence early next week might depend on whether we learn of Sasaki’s destination over the weekend, and how much chaos that creates.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s chat, friendos.

JC: Seems some in Astros are optimistic about Dezenzo in left field.  Is his bat enough to carry him at that position?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he is, ideally, playing a multi-positional role on a good HOU team. Minute Maid’s LF obviously allows for a lack of range, wouldn’t surprise me if he’s passable out there.

Sox fan: Hey Eric – when can we expect your J15 list and are there any prospects of note tied to the Red Sox?

Eric A Longenhagen: Monday or Tuesday depending on the knock-on effects of a weekend Roki decision. Some teams might not even sign their guys on the 15th as we wait for Roki to decide. You’ll probably be able to see what teams feel like they’re in it based on who doesn’t sign their big time players.

Eric A Longenhagen: BoSox guys:

Eric A Longenhagen: Dorian Soto is a well-rounded little Dominican infielder, more present skill than big time tools, not a ton of projection. About $1 mil

Eric A Longenhagen: Harold Rivas, Venezuelan CF, more toolsy CF type, young for the class with mid-2008 birthday, can run and throw but hit tool is generating variable opinions, again about a mil

jj: How do Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez and Elian Pena compare in both a player sense and a top 100 sense? Are either of them going to make the backend? Which guy do you see being ranked higher a year from now.

Eric A Longenhagen: For those unfamiliar: Josuar is expected to sign with San Francisco for a little north of $2 mil, Pena is expected to be a Met for close to $5 mil…

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both guys, quick reports on each:

Eric A Longenhagen: Pena sounds more like 3B but big time hit and power combo, enough to carry the profile anyway. Got a Devers comp on the phone this morning…

Eric A Longenhagen: Josuar is more defense and contact-oriented, a real shortstop with plus speed. So they’re pretty different guys. Top 100? I’ve tended to only put fresh Int’l guys on there if they have everything SS/Contact/Body Proj, Josuar is closer to that template but Elian has the more obvious impact power…it’s tough, could argue for either

AN1: Under the radar Orioles pitching prospects. Please rank: Nestor German, Michael Forret, Edgar Portes, Trey Gibson (similar GB% to Framber Valdez), Cameron Weston. Anyone jump out to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I want you to know that I appreciate the specificity of this question, but it’s one that will best be answered on the Orioles list rather than make everyone wait a half hour while I sit and actually line those dudes up in a coherent, studied way.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re not the first to ask me about Weston though, so here goes:

Eric A Longenhagen: Low slot multi-pitch guy with huge lateral action on a 91 mph fastball. Heavy secondary pitch usage when ahead in the count, especially his curveball. Changeup and curveball both play, worry the lack of velo would make him vulnerable as an actual starter, swingman/long relief type for me.

Grant Taylor: has ceiling of a #2?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a little too rich for me but I’m Scrooge when it comes to projecting pitcher roles. He’s more a no. 3/4 ceiling to me.

Maddoning: Cubs seem to be counting on Matt Shaw being a Day-1 starter at 3B.  Is this risky, given he has limited AAA experience?  Or is he THAT good?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think his fit at 3B felt very sound by the end of the year, went from a guy without an obvious defensive home to a meaningfully good 3B defender in the span of a couple months. I’m in and think he’s ready.

Jimmy: Thoughts on Mets RHP prospects Jonah Tong, Blade Tidwell, & Nolan McLean

Eric A Longenhagen: Tong is a data darling because of his fastball movement. 20 inches of vert is a lot, guys have succeeded as starters with fastball-heavy attacks (Joe Ryan). I don’t buy that Tong’s 76 mph curveball will be a plus pitch against big leaguers the way it has so far, but his changeup has gotten good enough for that to be ok if true.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tidwell is more typical backend guy with that inning-eater frame and stuff that plays down a little bit due to lack of explosive movement.

Eric A Longenhagen: McLean, plausible there’s a big pop as he focuses on pitching, mid-90s with dead movement, more relief look to me but is throwing hard as a starter

Lord Thunder: George Wolkow and Brandon Winokur. Lineup-anchoring behemoths or something more pedestrian?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Winokur more because I think he has a shot to play an actual position but I’ll take the latter on both guys.

Gram: Where would you like to see Luciano playing this year? LF, 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: RF

Eric A Longenhagen: Hopefully with more effort than we saw during instructs.

80-grade Commenter
Venezuela has experienced alot of social unrest lately….how has this impacted the talent pipeline from Venezuela?  I imagine it has to have impacted how teams scout players there

Eric A Longenhagen: Venezuelan players are often scouted in Colombia, and the last couple of weeks several teams got their upcoming signees out of there early just in case there was unrest around their inauguration etc.

PuzzlePiecePickers: Is Clayton Beeter’s future strictly as a reliever? If so, could he be a high leverage type as early as this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to the first part, probably not to the second part.

Seeking Solutions: In your mind, does Spencer Horwitz generate enough power to be a passable option at 1B for the Pirates for a few years?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s okay, passable is how I’d put it, a 45 type player.

Michael: Did you learn or see anything about Z. Hope in the AFL, that caused you to significantly re-assess your evaluation of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll obviously take another pass at him when I do the Dodgers list, but I felt pretty good about my 45+ grade coming out of AFL. Power over hit, gonna K a lot, feel in CF needs to get better, speed to develop there is present at the moment but he’s physically maxed out and I don’t know for how long that’ll be true. Solid platoon OF if he’s in a corner, flawed everyday CF if he can get better out there

Stilton: Are there any team’s 2024 draft classes you were really down on? Whether it was their selections, the team fit of those selections or the way they spread around their money. Any you were surprised/impressed by?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because it wasn’t an awesome class it’s tougher to narrow down whose I didn’t like because a lot of them feel underwhelming. I liked Seattle’s, Detroit’s. Didn’t care so much for Philly’s…mixed on a lot of teams

jj: Is the Giants list going to have JDJG on it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, and every org list that has already gone will be updated to include their int’l signees.

miratutti: Is Yu-Min Lin still potentially a ‘dude’ or has that ship sailed and he’ll have to settle for just being a situational LOOGY?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s ok. Command isn’t good enough to make him a “dude” with this level of velo. Backend type.

Tyler: Kind of a post prospect question but is Austin Shenton just an AAAA player or does he have a chance to get ABs this year after being moved.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve had a bench bat grade on him for a while. Playable power metrics were nutty for a few years but can’t play 3B for me, hit tool too dicey to play consistent role.

Jon: I don’t want to butcher this but I remember earlier this past year seeing a screenshot of you saying Sebastian Walcott’s high end comp is Javier Baez. Knowing what he did in the second half, has this changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wait a second, I’m confused by this. Are people saying Baez would be a disappointing outcome for Walcott?

Eric A Longenhagen: The 30 HR shortstop Javier Baez, are we talking about the same guy? Are peoples’ memories that short?

Phil: Do we have data somewhere that tells us what likelihood certain FV value prospects have of hitting certain WAR threshold? For example, a 60 FV pitcher has a x% chance of producing at least 10 career WAR. That would be a pretty cool spreadsheet to make public if such a thing exists.

Eric A Longenhagen: An Update to Prospect Valuation | FanGraphs Baseball

Dawg fan: What Condon have to show in 2025 to move up a few grades? Is it solely hit tool + contact rates that’s holding him back?

Eric A Longenhagen: And his defense

Eric A Longenhagen: He looked awful

RAH: You were pretty high on Rayner Arias at one point. His stateside debut was lackluster, but he was snakebit by injury again. Do you think he can show star level upside in 2025, or do you think that upside is actually lower now after multiple wrist injuries?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m scared of all the wrist stuff and thought his swing looked different and weirder last year. Still such a physical guy, but yeah seemed altered by these issues.

Victor: Where is the Reds international money going? They aren’t linked to any top prodpects.

Eric A Longenhagen: Angel Guzman, north of $3 mil, 7 run, 6 arm, CF. Am I the only one who has that?

Also Eric: Hey Eric, thanks for all your work. I have a general question about Moises Ballesteros. Is this the case of, if he can hang on as a backup catcher (maybe 30% catching and potentially DH/1B the rest of the time to accumulate ~500PA), while not being a great real life player, he becomes a substantial fantasy asset because of the quality of the bat at the catcher position? I know you’ve faded on him a bit since last year, but curious on your take for the divergence between real life/fantasy value with him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I could see a scenario where he has more fantasy value than real life because he’ll be eligible at C while getting reps at 1B/DH such that he’ll out-plate appearance a bunch of primary catchers, yeah. Sorta like Soderstrom late last year.

Jaygray007: Do you have a rule of thumb when a guy starts to get his “man strength?”  Ie, before that time, you can see a power uptick still being possible, and after that time it’s harder to see it happening?  I’m just gonna throw 23 out there as a guess

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, maybe it’d change for an individual player here or there based on a new-to-baseball athletic background or something like that, and you wanna give the small school college guys time to get strong on a pro weight program, but 23 give or take feels right

Lord Thunder: Since you’ve touched on Josuar and Elian, does Cris Rodriguez belong in their international sphere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Signing with Detroit for around 3mil. I have more mixed hit tool evals there.

Biff: Bryce Eldridge– would you consider that he has a long swing? I’ve seen video and it looks rather short considering his size?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree with you

Scott: No real question.  Just wanted to say that your talks are my favorite part of FPAZ.  Your knowledge and ability to quickly start talking about any player mentioned is pretty damn amazing.  Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it’s a litmus test for myself every year

Archer: What would your PowerPoint pitch to Roki Sasaki look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Part of me want sot answer this seriously and part of me wants to write the SNL sketch version of it

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose a big part of what I’d emphasize would be the city my team is in. How can you access nature and quiet in this place? I’d want the sound design of my presentation to be a bigger part of my spiel and create a tone that way.

Jarlin Susana: What clicked for him last year? Was it a real change and do you expect further progression?

Eric A Longenhagen: honestly, just holding his velo across more innings was a big deal. To know he can do that closes the gap between projection and actualization.

Marlins fan: I’ve read some lists that say Andrew Salas bonus is higher than it should be. What’s your thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have 3.7 there. Everyone loves him, maybe more stability than upside in a way, but nobody I’ve spoken with thinks he’s a bad prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: People saw him take BP like two days ago and he looked great.

Starlyn Caba: Am I the best defender in minor league baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I maybe need to make a supercut of this guy playing defense. Marlins list time it’ll happen.

tumtum: Is there anything you’ve noticed which might explain why the Twins top positional prospects have higher injury risks year-in year-out?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve, anecdotally, been more willing to take on players with injury stuff, from Carlos Correa to Brooks Lee.

ME: Any thoughts on Eliazar Dishmey and Keyner Benitez in the Marlins system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dishmey is a hard-throwing lotto ticket type without a lot of strikes. Benitez I love, maybe too much, smaller low-90s sinker guy but an incredible athlete with a potential 7 changeup.

Eric A Longenhagen: Benitez is already a Boras client, I believe.

Jeb: As part of your international coverage, do you have to stay abreast of foreign national news (such as your callout about Venezuela)? And if so, do you set time aside to read / watch local news sources or do you mostly just absorb the info as a side effect of foreign amateur prospect coverage?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not a *total* ignoramus when it comes to this stuff, but I definitely glean many of the specific details of the way this stuff impacts individual peoples’ lives (like scouts getting mugged or attempted kidnappings, etc.) via baseball discussion, from people who live or travel to these places often.

Eric A Longenhagen: I probably spend too much time watching sports than a person who can say they have a well-balanced media diet.

tumtum: Were you surprised to see Cowser’s power development this past season? Was his campaign a surprise?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was, came to camp a different beast, way more physical. If he can keep it up I’ll have gone out on something of a limb and been wrong. 30% K is kinda scary though…

Jorge: Ernesto Martinez Jr went zonkers (195 wRC+ over 201 PAs) to close out the year at Biloxi. Small sample noise or maybe starting to put all those tools together?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dude, I really wonder. He’s so freaky and the contact/chase parts of his game were closer to average in ’24 rather than way, way below….

Eric A Longenhagen: But he was 25 and at AA

JC: Can someone have a 50 hit tool with a 55 eye and 55 bat control?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah if they have so little power that the ball doesn’t leave the infield

Bencle Mens: Should baseball fields be more idiosyncratic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like the MVP 05 mini games?

Eric A Longenhagen: With tractors and ramps and sh*t?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m pro pie slice, that’s probably my hottest take.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still lots of good questions in the queue so I’m gonna go a little longer, maybe 10 to 15 or so

TBR: What’s FPAZ?

Eric A Longenhagen: First Pitch Arizona 2024 | Baseball HQ

Rupert Jones Fan: Is Sasaki your clear #1 pick for FYPDs? Or someone else would be your #1?

Eric A Longenhagen: upside/proximity combo is nuts, easy no. 1

Jazzrunner: It seems to me that the hit rate on 16 year old international signees has really dropped in the last 5 years.  I think of guys like Erik Pena, Robert Puason, Cespedes who have not progressed despite signing fat contracts.  Does the data support this feeling?  Some team seems to be spending every bit as high as previous years (e.g. Yankees).

Eric A Longenhagen: I think hype prior to signing has made more guys internet famous than was the case in the past when only Michael Ynoa was famous. The reasons for the hype are legion (tech, social media, perverse incentives in media, etc.) but we just know more about more guys now than ever before. And the deals have been agreed to earlier and earlier, which adds to the variance of the outcomes.

Sirras: Any prospects on the team list you’re currently working on that you’re significantly higher or lower on than consensus?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t looked at anyone else’s Giants list. I love Anthony Marquez.

Mike: What’s the next pod of team lists on deck?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams who train on the Gulf Coasts side of Florida

J: What do you think 2025 looks like for Caissie and Alcantara? The Cubs have definitely made ‘let’s win now’ moves.  The former, certainly, feels like trade bait.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel like KA is maybe more in the trade crosshairs because he’s running out of option years, but I’m generally with you.

Ty: Can you please tell me why OF Jacob Melton is so well regarded? I just don’t see it based on his minor league career.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in. Roughly average contact with plus power on a lefty-hitting OF. Swing worried me in college but he’s hit and hit. Chase is a little worse than average, I know his surface stats at Sugar Land were meh, but I think he’s a solid everyday OF.

YardGoat: How are you doing Eric? I and many others appreciate the work and insight you bring to prospect writing. A non-prospect question for you: What has been effective for you in your process to get from a collection of thoughts/notes to having actual coherent and substantive written words.

Eric A Longenhagen: Think about it like cooking rather than baking. Throw your ingredients into a google doc, add a little here, move this over there. Don’t be frozen in the mess of the initial outline/notes part. I struggle with this, I’m nautrally a baker, I will take forever agonizing over the wording of a paragraph and it will need to be perfect before I move on to the next. It takes forever doing it that way and I’ve tried to work with a cook’s mindset whenever I feel that stuck in the mud sensation.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok everyone, it’s back to Giants and Int’l work for me. Thanks for coming this week, there’s a chance I move or bang next week’s chat to scout MLK weekend activity here in Phoenix, just a heads up. Have a great weekend.