Reds Greenlight Gavin Lux Trade With Dodger Blue
On Monday the Dodgers traded Gavin Lux to the Reds for outfield prospect Mike Sirota, and Cincinnati’s 2025 Competitive Balance Round A selection, which is the upcoming draft’s 37th overall pick. Lux, who turned 27 in November, is a career .252/.326/.383 hitter in just shy of 1,500 career plate appearances. He is entering his first arbitration year; the Reds will have him under contract for three seasons.
The Lux Era in Los Angeles was rocky even though the team had championship success around him. He became one of baseball’s best prospects during an incredible 2019 season in which he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 59 extra-base hits in 113 minor league games. He spent the back half of that season, still age 21, at Triple-A Oklahoma City, briefly made his big league debut, and was my no. 2 prospect in baseball entering 2020. Expectations for him were sky high, not only in terms of his impact but also the immediacy of that impact.
Instead, problems with Lux’s throwing accuracy arose during the pandemic season and have been an intermittent problem ever since. His bout with the yips led to 2021 experimentation at third base and in left field, neither of which stuck. The Dodgers seemed determined to move Lux back to shortstop in 2023, but misfortune found Lux again when he blew his ACL in a Cactus League game and missed the whole year. Back at the keystone in 2024, Lux turned in an average offensive season – he slashed .251/.320/.383 over 487 plate appearances with a career high 10 home runs and 100 wRC+ – with below average second base defense, culminating in 1.5 WAR.
Lux is a good fit on a Reds roster teeming with versatile infielders, most of whom hit right-handed. While he’s anemic against lefties, especially their sliders, Lux is a career .264/.337/.408 hitter against righties and slashed .262/.332/.407 against them in 2024. The Reds look as though they’ll have the capacity to play in-game matchups at a variety of different positions if they want to, but from another point of view, they lack stability at every position but shortstop. Center fielder TJ Friedl has been on the IL five times within the last two years, second baseman Matt McLain got Arizona Fall League reps in center field when he returned from a serious shoulder injury of his own. Spencer Steer (1B/LF), Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B), Santiago Espinal (2B/3B/SS), and Rule 5 pick Cooper Bowman (2B/OF) all play a number of different positions, several overlapping with where Lux plays or has played. All are also right-handed. The Reds don’t have a obvious first baseman (Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the projected starter there, but he was bad last season) and it’s possible one of either Steer or Candelario will occupy that spot every day, necessitating a platoon at their other position. It’s conceivable that Lux will revisit left field or third base so that he, too, can bring some amount of versatility to the table and be part of said platoon, but no matter which players claim Opening Day roster spots in Cincinnati, they seem poised to move all over the place to help ensure favorable matchups for the offense.
The main return in this deal for Los Angeles is the draft pick, the 37th overall selection in what I believe to be a deep draft. Lux has performed like a 45-grade player so far, and prospects of about that talent level tend to be available in the Comp round of a deep class. This becomes the Dodgers’ first selection in the 2025 draft, as their ordinary first round pick was chuted 10 spots down to 40th overall because their big league payroll exceeded the second luxury tax threshold. They now have three of this year’s first 70 picks.
The transition from an infield with Lux to one with recent Korean signee, Hye-seong Kim (analysis here), represents a sizeable upgrade for the Dodgers on defense. Kim has played only second base for the last several KBO seasons, but he’s a great athlete with great range, and it’s reasonable to project that he’ll be able to play an MLB-quality shortstop, as well as several other positions, if given the opportunity. The Dodgers’ middle infield contingent in 2024 was a yip-prone Lux, several guys in their mid-30s, and a rusty-from-injury Tommy Edman, whom they acquired at the trade deadline. Their 2025 mix will depend on what kind of shortstop defender Kim ends up being — right now, they are still planning to have Mookie Betts open the year at short — and is pending whatever else the Dodgers do between now and Opening Day.
The sidecar to the trade is Sirota, a 21-year-old outfielder who was Cincinnati’s 2024 third round selection out of Northeastern, where he hit .324/.458/.577 during his career. (Unfamiliar readers should be aware that college stats are bloated.) He has yet to play an actual pro game, but he participated in Cincinnati’s instructional league activity during the fall. Here was my pre-draft report:
Speedy, power-over-hit center field prospect with plus plate discipline. Tightly wound athlete with narrow build, wiry and strong. Hands are especially lively with low-ball power. Likely going to swing underneath a ton of in-zone fastballs and be a below-average contact hitter. Speed fits in center; reads and routes need polish but the footspeed is there. Projected issues with the hit tool and Sirota’s flavor of build/athleticism look more like a part-timer. His on-base ability buoys his profile and gives Sirota a shot to be a Tyrone Taylor type of complimentary outfielder.
The Dodgers often target players with speed-driven profiles and attempt to make them stronger (Jake Vogel, Kendall George, Zyhir Hope), and Sirota is of that ilk. This is also the second year in a row the Dodgers have pounced on a recently drafted prospect who had yet to get his footing in pro ball (also Hope, from the Cubs).
So the Dodgers turn essentially a part-time player into a draft asset of comparable value (albeit a slow-to-mature one) and a likely lesser, but decent young prospect in Sirota. In a vacuum it’s a pretty even trade, but knowing they arguably replaced Lux with a better roster fit in a separate deal, and then cashed him in for multiple pieces feels like vintage Rays-era Andrew Friedman snowballing assets. For the Reds, Lux’s fit on their roster and their desire to compete for the NL Central crown helps justify things on their end, though it’s tougher to swallow a smaller market team coughing up such a high draft pick.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Roster Resource says Lux is under contract for 2 seasons, not 3. Just FYI!
Technically he’s under contract only for this year but has two years of team control left. He’s arb 3 in ’26 and UFA in ’27.
Very impressively done by the dodgers to still get value out of a player who didn’t live up to potential.
Eh, even if he didn’t live up to potential, he wasn’t without value. I don’t see any dodger devil magic at play. Looks like a fair trade all around.
The Devil Magic will be when Sirota and the 37th pick both turn into players who provide more value than Lux
Kind of like Hope broke through after coming over in the Busch trade.
Definitely not a steal, just the kind of future value wrangling that the Dodgers need to do to remain at the top of the pile.
I don’t agree with that. The stakes are low so there’s only so much the Reds can lose this trade but the fact that the Dodgers got this for Lux is impressive. He’s roughly a league average bat if platooned and without a real position (although he can fake 2nd base).
As a lefty he is going to be the large end of any platoon. And what you describe as “not having a position” could also be described as a guy with alot of flexibilty. Lux wont win any awards on defence but he can competently play any IF position (some more competantly than others).
A guy who can hit avg-above avg against RHP and play multiple IF positions, and even OF in a pinch, is nothing to sneeze at.
Ultimatley I think this trade winds up not meaning much for either team but if forced to bet, I would take Cincy in this.
The reds get their value, such as is, today.
Not in the next draft, and not in three+ years.
Bird in the hand and all that…
I’m not convinced he can competently play shortstop or third base. Second base, first base, and maybe the corner outfield.
If I have to take Gavin Lux or the mystery box, I think I’m taking the mystery box.
Mystery box being primarily a guy who hit his hat size at Northeastern? Nah. I have a feeling some of the discourse on this move is because the Reds made it. If it was the Rays, well, it was a brilliant move!
I was thinking the mystery box was the comp round pick.
The guy who hit his hat size at Northeastern is a also a mystery box, just a smaller one.
I don’t like it when people say it was a good move because the Rays made it. The Rays lose a lot more trades than people think. It’s mostly that the Chris Archer deal single-handedly would push any team’s plus / minus ledger onto the positive side.
Ah yes, the draft pick which can be anything! Fans love to let their minds run wild with that one.
I have a hard time believing a comp round pick is ever going to be a 2-3 win player (which is what Lux is) let alone be that anytime in the next couple years.
And if they do turn into that, its mostly just luck.
Sure he can. We arent talking about 162 games, we are talking about when needed. He would be just fine and make 99% of the plays (because 99% of plays are entirely routine). You are acting like he is literally missing a leg or something.
Next great Northeastern athlete en route now that JJ Barea’s retired. Go Huskies
For this deal to be a success for the Reds I’d say Lux needs to go all Scooter Gennett for a couple of years and they need to make the playoffs (or at least play some competitive September baseball).
If all Cincy gets is two years of a two WAR 2B and more mediocrity on the team level, shoulda kept the pick and prospect.
I mean, Lux already basically is Gennett without the unexpected power boost in the middle of his career. But it’s not like Actual Scooter Gennett helped the Reds all that much.
Actual Scooter Gennett put up six wins for the Reds over two seasons!
It is so hard to look at the Reds and say “yes, this is the same to push in their chips for two years of a platoon second baseman.” Maybe he’ll even hit well but it’s hard to see this making a difference for them, even in the NL Central.
Given the setbacks he’s had I still see Lux as having some untapped offensive upside in addition to a relatively safe 2 WAR floor. My question is really how bad was he at LF in LA that you wouldn’t at least try him on the grass in CIN? That’s the hole in their roster at this point.
Word is they’re going with Steer and/or McLain in the OF.
Lux needed a change of scenery so he too benefits from the trade. A fresh start at 2B might get him to where he was supposed to be.
Even at his worst Lux is present day help in return for future considerations that won’t help this year or next. So they may not be going all in a “damn the torpedoes” run but they are certainly looking to compete while the division is weak. Can’t let the Brewers get it with minimal effort without at least trying something.
They may be going cheap but they’re trying. Not all teams can say that.
lol your username
go to youtube and look up “gavin lux LF tape outline” and you will see why he was never put back in the OF; his lack of defensive value AND power is a real limitation. He looked like such a sure thing to me coming out of AAA, so this is coming from a place of reluctance, but I dunno…I would not put him near a wall.
Lux is rosterable but he’s an obvious guy to upgrade for the Dodgers. He’s not a good defender, which might not be an issue except Betts is going to play shortstop and Muncy is going to play third (we think). He’s not a great hitter, although he can lengthen your lineup a bit if you manage his playing time against left handed pitching. There’s a real chance that both Kim and Alex Freeland will be better than Lux (and it’s possible both will be better defenders at shortstop than Betts), and if they can find a center fielder somewhere they can play Edman more in the middle infield too. They should be very happy they got some value in a trade for him, since his main value comes from him being cheap.
As for the Reds, this kind of plays to type, doesn’t it? They seem to think any player can play any position. Lux is perfect for a team that never found obvious positions for India and Steer (and probably others I am forgetting). Reds fans are lucky that there is absolutely no vacancy at shortstop, otherwise he would definitely get a run there.
The Reds have too many offensive black holes to be turning down a chance at a cheap at least league average bat. There’s always DH and 1B at bats where the Reds were bottom of the league in 2024. They’ll find a place to play him.
I don’t buy that Lux makes any sense at DH and 1B. By Steamer, he’s projected for a lower wRC+ than both Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer, and about the same as Candelario, all of whom are ahead of him for PAs at those two positions. And none of those guys are going anywhere for the next two years.
The only reason why Lux is more attractive than these guys is that he can mostly play second base, even if he’s not great there.
CES still has to prove that he can hit and Steer will be seeing time all over the field. This feels more like we’re taking ABs away from Espinal and Will Benson
Will Benson even end the season on the 26-man?
Benson is not great at the making contact thing, especially in the zone.
Lux still has to prove he can hit. And what he’s shown so far is that he’s decent for 2b, but way underwhelming for 1b or dh.
Well, to be fair, they very much did find an obvious position for India, as 2B is the only position where he has ever appeared in the field. He just happened to be very bad at it, largely because he is simply not a good defensive baseball player. Same can likely be said of Steer, but they’ve taken to moving him around out of necessity rather than a specific desire.
McLain would have first dibs at SS if De La Cruz were not available.
Obviously a big bat OF would be ideal but when you look at the price of the remaining OF/DH/1B it is easy to see why Santana got $12M.
Look at the remaining LF options and Lux at 2 WAR and moving Steer/McLain doesn’t look too bad compared to what Profar, Canha, Verdugo might cost for a similar boost. Or what Santander might cost for a real boost. They’re all still out there for good reasons. If any are willing to take a pillow, the Reds might pick one up but gambling on Lux is worth less.
None of this makes sense. Lux might be a 2-win player at 2B, and McLain is potentially a 3-win player at 2B if healthy (maybe more) but that’s only at 2B. You don’t get to “stack” positional value like that, especially if you move one of them to a different position!
The closest approximation to Lux in LF is Heyward as a platoon bat in the corner outfield. He got a crowdsourced one year, $6M. But I think Heyward makes more sense because we know he can play the position. David Peralta is very similar as well.
Although now that I think it, so is Jake Fraley.
Yeah would have rather gotten a big bat lefty OF than play one of McLain or Lux out of position.
BUT, it seems we’re already at budget and they’re not getting of the Candy contract so I think this creative approach to finding a good bat. Also it’s not like our defense can get any worse than last years…
If you don’t fix the defense, they won’t get any better… and this doesn’t fix the defense.
I guess. I thought that India was moved due to a logjam of infielders with McLain coming back, but maybe they want Lux to be a super sub and insurance against injury in a way that India couldn’t provide.
As a prospect, Lux was thought to have potentially sneaky 20HR power, but based on his bat speed and EVs, I don’t think there’s much more upside there. He’s maybe got a little more OBP upside, but I think the ship has sailed on him being more than a fringy regular on a contender.
Kind of really like this for LAD. Solid draft pick and as much as Sirota’s swing is very bust-adjacent, getting that combo of speed/lift/discipline and getting it at the very beginning of the dev process, when their franchise can fully sculpt him, is a nice get.
No question: after signing Kim Lux became surplus and getting value, even if 3+ years away, is a good return.
Good trade on all sides.
The Reds roster construction continues to baffle me, but a Lux/Espinal platoon could make a lot of sense, especially if you’re buying into the swing changes Lux during the All-Star break. Espinal has a 114 wRC+ against lefties for his career, and Lux ran a 169 wRC+ against righties in the second half. Could do worse!
If Lux can come even close to 169 wRC against RHP he’s going to have to be really bad against LHP or Espinal has to be much better on the field to be a platoon. And if he hit like that *and* his defense is really bad, well.169 works at DH.
Surely his 169 is more of a good month than an achievable target?
If it is, somebody in LA has some ‘splainin’ to do.
Should also be noted the Dodgers took a 16th round flyer on Sirota out of high school in 2021 so they’ve been on him for awhile now.
The Reds have their Jonathan India replacement.
And got a pitcher in the shuffle.
Feel like I’m missing something about Lux. He put up 2.7 WAR in his age-24 season. Missed his entire age-25 season because of an injury to his front leg. Went through the first half of his age-26 season clearly not trusting the health of that front leg. Then made an adjustment during the All-Star break to trust the front leg, as Jay noted in October, and put up the 13th-highest wRC+ in the majors in the second half. He just turned 27 and was rated a 70 FV prospect upon graduation, of which there are a handful every half-decade.
I get that he’s been underwhelming on the whole, but at least part of the explanation for why seems plausibly out of his control — and when you’re a franchise like the Reds, I think you take the still-young recent top prospect who doesn’t even qualify as a reclamation project over the Comp A pick.
He was platooned the entire second half, so while he showed glimpses of his peak, it was neither well rounded nor consistent (he slumped at the very end of the year). He also did not show progress as a fielder at any position.
He’s suffered terrible luck in his career, and I wanted to see him thrive because when his swing was on, it was amazing…but it felt like that day wasn’t coming.
My question is: what is Seattle up to? I would have expected them to be in on him.
The Mariners park (whoever has sponsorship now) is one of the hardest parks to hit in, if not the hardest. A lot of guys just fail there, even players who hit well elsewhere.
That said I don’t know what the Mariners are doing. They can’t possibly go into the year with both Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss in the starting lineup, right?
Maybe they’ll sign Sasaki and flip Kirby for Jackson Holliday.
Whether or not it’s a good idea for either side, I do not believe the Orioles would trade Jackson Holliday based on their behavior over the last year or so. The O’s have been extremely reluctant to deal their prospects (the Burnes deal notwithstanding, and even then, it was a blocked prospect), and while Kirby is the guy you’d do that for, the Os seem pretty content to be the top AL WC team with a outside shot at the #1 seed next season and see how it goes, so I don’t think BAL is as desperate as its fans are (right or wrong).
Furthermore, if you are skeptical about the Ms as a playoff team next year (as I am), then why not get Kirby at a discount over the summer?
It was of interest to see that just as the Dodgers were trading Gavin Lux, once the #2 overall prospect in baseball in 2020, for a modest prospect and a middling draft pick they also quietly jettisoned another bust. Diego Cartaya, their 2023 #1 prospect was Designating For Assignment. It is very unusual for an organization to give up on #1 prospect so quickly but the one-time top catching prospect failed to show any sign of what made him the hot prospect he once was.
High end prospects bust all the time. The Dodgers have had a lot of high end prospects including a couple of teenage catching prospects (a very risky demographic). So it makes sense some would bust.
Cartaya was always a more of an interesting and good prospect than an elite one anyway. Kind of like “huh, you don’t usually see a catcher with this much power projection, do you?”
Lux was a different beast. He played up the middle and crushed competition at a fairly young age, but whatever he was doing in the minors was a lot harder to do against major league pitching. The power just didn’t translate, at all.
Yep, and I wouldn’t call Lux a bust. Slightly disappointing given what he accomplished in the minors, but baseball is hard as hell.
Yeah, he’s not a star, but a bust doesn’t have two rings and play in 50+ games a year. His inability to hit lefties or have defensive versatility doomed him, but I wonder what could have been without COVID and injuries.
Some real recency bias to knock LAD for Lux and ignore Seager, Bellinger, Pages, Muncy, Smith, and a large chunk of the pitching staff (Michael Busch says hi from Chicago, etc.)
having watched gavin since he was drafted, i continue to believe that: (a) the knee injury really set him back about a season and a half – he was coming into his own when it happened offensively and trusting his swing path fully, which he seemed to be back to during the second half last year; and (b) while his defense is probably no better than ok, there’s a couple of .285+-18-85-15 with 60 walks seasons in that bat, maybe more power given that gabp is sort of a bandbox.
still like him, still really like the bat, but this seems to be the rarest of things – a trade that’s probably good for both teams and the players involved.
Plot twist: Nick Krall says he acquired Lux (at least in part) because of Jay Jaffe’s Oct 4th article on the adjustments that Lux made in the second half of last year.
Personally, I’m skeptical of any hot streak where the big breakout is hitting 8 homers in two months when there are only 2 homers in the remaining four. Everyone looks better when you pick the best two months of the year. And this incredible two-month hot streak that everyone is talking about had the 101st-best barrel rate out of 287 players (min 100 PAs). His “swinging harder” during those two months got him the 221st best maxEV during that time frame (again out of 287, min 100 PAs).