Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/23/06

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where the new neighbors have people gutting the house for the next week plus, and jackhammering has been involved.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re gonna go long today, so buckle in, throw on some music or a pod, and play pepper in the queue with me for the next little while.

Brown: Any news/speculation on what the Giants are doing with the IFA money they just traded for?

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually, no. Lemme see if I can source the amount of space traded during chat today. (Note from Eric after chat: the amount acquired was $250,000, probably for someone they had already agreed with, according to a source)

Potato: Eric, is it funny that Semien first moved to 2B in deference to Bo at SS in Toronto, and now Bo is moving to 3B instead of 2B in deference to Semien in NY? Or am I reaching?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is kind of fun and cool that these two have now played together at multiple spots but I don’ know that I’d say Bo is what moved Semian off of shortstop, Semien kinda moved himself out of there. Great hitter, wasn’t a great shortstop.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wasn’t a good shortstop

Eric A Longenhagen: Bo has been fine there, body looks like it’s aged out, which is pretty normal.

Sleepless in Seattle: Why is Brennen Davis not listed in Fangraphs top prospects?  This has to be an oversight no?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Johnny Carson voice) Chatters who’ve been in a coma since 2019

Eric A Longenhagen: No, even through the haze of the internet I can tell your tongue is planted firmly in your cheek.

Eric A Longenhagen: Injuries, man. Hope Brennen gets to wear a big league uni at some point.

NFP: Is Jordan Sanchez still a 40+ for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: That one’s tough. Scary contact rate, love the swing/bat speed and upside of lefty power like this. Definitely too risky to *really* stuff, like in the 45 tier or better, 40+ I think properly reflects his ceiling, but also maybe doesn’t sufficiently account for his risk now that he’s had a 63% contact season in the DSL.

Mike Trout: Did the Mets give up too much? Would you rather have Gore or Peralta, considering the costs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think it’s too much. I do think they kinda shot themselves in the foot with both Jett’s and Sproat’s value, though…

Eric A Longenhagen: Sproat got worse after making changes in ’25. Is it the org that wanted him to make those changes? The Mets are pretty good at developing pitchers overall, but in this case the tweaks coincided with the player regressing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jett they should’ve let play CF and 2B earlier. He’s hit his way to triple a but still isn’t good at any position, which scares the crap out of me.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both prospects, to be clear.

MLB Rooney Rule: Surprised by the shift in grade from last year on Juan Brito. Dude barely played in 2025, so what really changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I over-ranked him last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: And also hamstring surgery is scary. He was *barely* scraping by at 2B and has been playing basically all 1B in LIDOM (where he didn’t hit well fwiw).

MLB Rooney Rule: Did that unnamed Venezuelan player you were worried about ever get out of the country and sign?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, the team felt like he’d be okay when I asked them if he was still there or not in the days immediately following the airstrikes.

George: Eric, I appreciated your piece on the Gore trade. I’m a Nats fan, and there’s been some local media who are saying that the Nats might be considered a top 5 minor league system. Am I wrong for seeing them more in the 10-15 range?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had the right in the very middle at the end of ’25. I think their transactions this offseason move them closer to 10th. Our methodology favors top-heavy systems, and in the Gore trade it was more guys I have 45s, 40+s on, they only move the needle so much.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s more true that they set themselves up to have a top 5 system in like 2 years, when some of the Fien/Fitz-Gerald/Yeremy group has matured.

bushupking: How worrisome are shoulder injuries for hitting prospects in general? Are injuries to the lead shoulder more alarming than an injury to the back shoulder? (Am thinking about Bryce Rainer in particular.)

Eric A Longenhagen: It depends on the exact nature of it. Think about Tatis and Corbin Caroll’s shoulder injuries, from basically being too explosive for their own good. They’ve survived those. When it’s a traumatic injury from a collision or fall, those freak injuries are a person-to-person, incident-to-incident type of thing.

Eric A Longenhagen: And then you have the injuries involving nerves and veins and stuff….whole other world.

NFP: How do teams balance the defensive development of guys on similar timelines who play the same position? This is mostly a Wehiwa Aloy / Colin Yeaman question for 2026. They could just stick Aloy in Frederick and Yeaman in Delmarva, of course.

Eric A Longenhagen: In those guys’ case I think they’ll both play multiple positions. But yeah you can use the DH to ensure they both get at-bats or stagger which affiliates they start at.

Jonathan: One of the things AI can’t yet do well is predict something that it hasn’t been exposed to in its training data.  I figure scouts have massive internal libraries of prospects.  Can you think of anyone (or even any pitch, or any trait) that’s very rare or even singular, that a CV-based agent trained on video from the last 5+ years might have trouble assessing as well as a human would?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’d be curious about what kind of video it’s been fed, just like game footage, high speed stuff? Mocap stuff? There are things scouts see visually that definitely can/have become measurable through tech (bat speed, bat path angles, jumps on defense, even real time biomechanical data) and I’d wanna know how much of that stuff AI is looking at, data and video…

Eric A Longenhagen: I care about stuff like body composition and posture; I care about how bodies look in motion and think you can learn a lot by how cleanly these guys field and excahnge the baseball. If what you’re talking about can assess stuff like that it’s cutting deeper into what scouts have still been able to offer during the TrackMan era.

Eric A Longenhagen: Then there’s the interpersonal stuff, Getting to know the player as a person is still important, although sometimes I think we overestimate our ability to really know how someone is going to adjust to pro baseball just by having coffee with them and their family.

romorr: Orioles and Rangers paid similar prices for Gore/Baz. Considering the prospects + pitchers, which do you prefer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gimme the Gore package. Rosario’s ceiling is that of a player you basically can’t acquire. Tampa didn’t get that in the Baz deal.

David Wiers: Of course it isn’t why you’re there, but what was the best/your favorite MiLB mid-inning entertainment?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is like 15% of why I’m here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cookie Face

Eric A Longenhagen: For those who don’t know, Cookie Face is the contest where the contestants put like an Oreo on their forehead and then have to try to move it into their mouth without using their hands. When a good cameraperson shoots it just right, it’s tense and hilarious.

Eric A Longenhagen: My favorite to do during my IronPigs era (we were often plants for this sstuff on the field, idk if the franchise didn’t have insurance for the actual fans to do them or what)  was the bungie cord run. You know what I mean, when two people are tied by a bungi cord at the waist and have to fill a bucket will baseballs in opposite directions?

big_carlos: What do you think of the Ryan Weathers return for Miami?  Do you think there is a centerpiece in that deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely behind the other packages we’ve discussed today. Weathers hasn’t been as great (though he’s definitely a rotation piece) as the other two guys, nor as healthy. Matheus is my favorite from the guys they got because I think he has the best chance of actually hitting. Lewis is probably second, his tools are huge.

Broken Bat: Eric, really enjoy these Friday chats. I have a question on the Mets trade with the Brewers, #1, I am nit a Met fan, but seemingly Stern has IMO made them the NLE. favorites. My ? Is regarding Sproat and Tong. They re both ranked high by you and other publications. I feel certain Brewers had to get Sproat as their preferred young pitcher over Tong. Brewers have SP options w/o pushing Sproat this year. Was it a coin flip between these two? Who would you have asked for between them, and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think if you’re a pitcher on the 40-man roster then you’re almost certainly going to be in the big leagues at some point. I agree that Sproat, who has all three of his options remaining, is unlikely to break camp in the big leagues because of that. I also agree that he is more stylistically similar to a lot of the Brewers starters, which doesn’t really have the Tong-style vertical fastball guy (Miz is a freak just take him off the board, that guy isn’t a “type” he’s his own thing).

Eric A Longenhagen: Sproat I prefer to Tong if you ensure me his changeup from ’24 and prior comes back

MLB Rooney Rule: I hear less about summer wood bat leagues in scouting reports these days across the board. With BBCOR bats muddying power grades in the NCAA that doesn’t make much sense to me. Shouldn’t scouts be prioritizing those looks? Cap Cod and Northwoods League Trackman data feels like it should be highly coveted info for teams. It’s becoming clear the Cubs have done so in recent drafts. I just don’t see the same in other teams or public evals.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think everyone cares about that stuff. Cape data tends to be in small samples and is tougher to source (at least for me) than the pro and NCAA stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wood would be great to use everywhere. It’s expensive and tough to travel with when you’re a college program.

Adobe: I’m struck by the way the D-backs seem to collect these 40-45 types in a way that’s well outside the norm. Who drives the player acquisition strategy? Any idea why this is the preferred strategy? I get the feeling that they’re a team that has long relied on inexpensive player to “subsidize” a star or two and so these are the potential subsidies. But it comes at the cost of drafting potential stars. What gives?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK if that’s true, remember there was a point when one could have considered Corbin Carroll to be one of those little 45-grade types.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the DBacks do a good job of balancing guys like Corbin, Kayson Cunningham, Alek Thomas with toolsy, bigger-framed dudes. Especially when you account for their approach internationally. Crisantes is a good little guy, too.

Lowe Distribution System: How come the tippity top of Japanese pitchers are premier aces in MLB but the tippity top of Japanese hitters are maybe above average dudes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mmmm, I think Ichiro and Ohtani and Hideki Matsui are top of the heap guys. The best Japanese hitters might not necessarily be able to hit MLB pitching, and we don’t know until they try. Pitching is in control of the pitcher. There’s going to be a higher rate of wrongness when evaluating the hitters in an environment that doesn’t really replicate he one you’re projecting them into.

Eric A Longenhagen: We maybe could do a population-based study on elite MLB players per capita and see if Japan is truly not producing elite guys as often as the D.R. or wherever, but they gave us literally the best guy.

Adobe: Maybe a question for Ben Clemens, but I get a weird sense that the Ketel Marte trade rumors held up the market, and when he was finally pulled off the market, things started to flow. Coincidence or could there be a shred of truth there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a shred of truth since the market this offseason has seemed to flow in the way you’re describing: The top player signs or gets traded and then there are dominoes as the runner-up teams scramble to find a dance partner. I don’t know how close Ketel trade talks came to any kind of actual deal, though.

Alec: Was reading some Pipeline articles this week for their take on top ten prospects at each position and was surprised they called out Hao-Yu Lee as a potential RoY candidate at third base. Do you share a similar level of optimism for Lee? I’m a bit skeptical that he’ll have enough playing time this year to make an impact, but he’s taken a steady rise through the minors that Detroit seems to prefer their prospects complete before debuting.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a player who looks awesome on the Trackman spreadsheet. Like him, think he’s more of a part time player especially with that club. They have depth among players like him both in front and behind, it’s too crowded a group for me to consider him a RoY fave, but I do think he’s a good hitter.

Brett: Post-prospect, I know, but is Acuna going to be the de-facto CF for the ChiSox?

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys should feel free to ask me about whoever, I don’t stop watching or caring when they’re not rookies anymore, they just leave the board and such. I bet he roves 2B/OF.

Eric A Longenhagen: On a contending team that guy is a utility payer, might as well start moving him around now.

Guest: I haven’t seen an article on the site about the Peralta trade so wanted your feedback. Being a Brewer fan and having seen them function, I trust they did their homework and will get the most out of Sproat and Jett. What realistic outcome do you see for the pair and how do you think the Brewers did in the trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewing with Gas: Evaluating Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Brendan wrote that one up.

Eric A Longenhagen: Again, quickly: I like both guys. Sproat I like more, especially if Milwaukee recaptures 2020-2024 Sproat. Jett is tougher, he’s mold-breaking, he hasn’t gotten better at throwing from shortstop and has barely played CF or 2B. He’d be a defensive liability if you put him on a big league field tomorrow. Love the power/speed combo and think he’s going to produce as a hitter despite K’s.

MLB Rooney Rule: What NCAA tactic do you want to see Vitello deploy at the MLB level that’ll have more traditional fans up in arms?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think it’ll be fascinating to see his (and Drew Gilbert’s) brand of machismo interacts with the culture of the city/region.

romorr: So do you agree that we might be just a few short years away from no HS players in the draft? 20 round draft down to 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, this has been a rumor for a while. Cut another minor league affiliate, centralize more games onto the spring training complexes, no HS players in the draft and instead one-and-done style in college like the NBA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Owner incentives: If there are no HS players in the draft then we can’t really have 19-20 year old debuts, and then we don’t have to pay 26-year-old Manny Machado as a free agent, we pay 28-year-old Machado instead.

Adam: Is Jadher Areinamo going to be the next out of nowhere Rays prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Been a pretty good prospect since ’23 imo, good hitter. He’s a lot of fun to watch swing. Below avg athlete with below avg power at 2B. Nice player, but not Junior Caminero or anything like that.

Johnny5Alive: Y’all were high on Alex Freeland last year and he performed well again in AAA. But he’s also a dodgers prospect so will he get a real shot there or does he need to be traded to get real run in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet he takes some at-bats away from Edman (against righties), and if an OF gets hurt then their best alignment might be Mookie –> OF Freeland starts at SS. I know the Roster Resource fellas have Rojas in there right now but I think Freeland is a better roster fit at the moment.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Xavier Isaac? Is his prospect status basically the same as entering last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He had brain surgery last year, I have no idea how to account for that from a eval/value standpoint. I’m really glad it seems like he’s gonna be okay.

romorr: When you see a 17 year old hit A ball, and strike out 50% of the time in 100 PAs, like Stiven Martinez, not a lot of weight put on that, right? He should be in A-, but since there isn’t one anymore…

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are probably folks in baseball who’d tell you that him striking out a ton in full season ball is dispositive and it would have been that way regardless of whether he had the opportunity to play in Bluefield for a summer.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure that’s right, it’s a conveniently unprovable thing for the folks who’ve lopped off short season ball

Salty: On the 20-80 scale, how excited are you to be missing the latest version of Snowmageddon?  And if given the ability to teleport, but with only two options, would prefer to be jackhammer-free shoveling a foot of snow with temps in the teens or stay warm and dry with incessant hammering?

Eric A Longenhagen: It drizzled here last night so I feel like I’m one of you guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually my dad just had foot surgery and can’t do anything for a few months. He’s normally the guy shoveling the walks of his elderly neighbors (and both of my grandmothers) in Catty but he’s on the 60-day and I feel pretty guilty about being in Arizona while they’re all getting 15 inches.

Eric A Longenhagen: (that’s not an exaggeration, that’s the forecast)

Oaktown Blues: Do the A’s have enough intriguing pitching in the upper minors to make a run this year? Jump/Arnold/Nett/Lin feel like they could improve the staff in a hurry

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, plus year two of Morales and all of their young hitters getting a little better… Sneaky sneaky A’s

Swarm Legend: Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño have both been penciled in as Detroit’s future backstops, Is it possible we could see Liranzo at 1B and Briceno at C..? Is it possible this season at some point..?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the reverse (Liranzo C, Briceno 1B) is more likely. Probably not this year. Liranzo is going to be a slow burn, bet he doesn’t really get consistent big league time until 28

Z: Where would you rate the nats farm system after the moves they’ve made this offseason? And any possibility Abrams gets moved prior to the start of the season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotta think there’s a shot CJ gets moved, especially if Ketel is truly off the market now. If it’s a contending team they might anna move him to the OF and that might be a hurdle for completion if CJ isn’t on board with it.

Guest: Hello Eric. What position do you suspect Leo De Vries will play when he debuts for the A’s? Considering the A’s have an All-Star occupying SS, which one will move to another position?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2B

Bog: Where does Luciano end up when the carousel stops?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miami

David: Any insight as to what happened with Dawel Joseph? As he signed it sounded like there were already concerns about how he had developed since agreeing with the Mariners, and face planted about as hard as you could for a top 10-20 IFA guy after two years in the DSL

Eric A Longenhagen: A biproduct of agreeing to a deal when the kid has never shaved.

Guest: Normally in the write ups of teams you guys mention the strategies and how well they do on both the IFA and draft side. Was wondering what are the thoughts on both of those for the Blue Jays

Eric A Longenhagen: Like their recent approach in the early and middle parts of drafts; High ceiling HS shortstop early, then contact college bats, then dart throw at another 1mil bonus HS guy later mix of things they do, strike-throwing college guys you try to develop. Int’l they’ve had some high dollar whiffs.

Guest: Do you foresee Juan Sanchez getting on the top hundo this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is the one exception, and yeah he’s a Pick to Click candidate.

Guest: People who know more than me suggest that, even with McLean and Tong graduating and Sproat being traded, the Mets have another wave of good pitching prospects in the upper levels. Who are the guys we should be most excited about? I hear Wenninger, Watson, Thornton, and Gordon’s names a lot.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Wenninger and Watson, yeah.

Eric A Longenhagen: And they made something out of Aracena and traded him…

Eric A Longenhagen: they’re good at it.

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean just taking a Harvard guy in the 12th round and in a few months changing him enough to be able to move him for LouBob? That’s good stuff.

Nick: With Jefferson Rojas really struggling after the bump to AA, do you still view him the same due to his super young age or is he starting to fall in status?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still on him toward the back of the 100. Wrote up Aroon Escobar yesterday (Phillies list Monday folks) and Rojas and Aroon are a nice apples to apples pair to stack against one another. right in that 45/50 line area.

Sir Nerdlinton: No question, but the MLBPA is terrible at marketing. The talk of salary caps should be countered with equal revenue share arguments. Neither will be amendable, but it’d get the public to think from the player’s perspective for a second.

Eric A Longenhagen: Marketing?

Eric A Longenhagen: If what you’re talking about is, “controlling online discourse” then I guess? But how would you like them to do that? People are pretty dumb, properly educating everyone about labor so that public opinion favors the MLBPA’s aims seems impossible to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I’m not sure public discourse matters. Like who cares if Stephen A Smith or Nick Wright thinks baseball should have a salary cap? Tony Clark shouldn’t give af about that stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: The MLBPA needs to be good at negotiating, period.

Jimmy Crooks: How different would Yesavage grade as a prospect this year if he didnt have his postseason run last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’d still be a 60 I think but I think it’s fair to say postseason performers who remain rookies have been overranked in general. Arozarena has been close to properly ranked, but Evan Carter nah.

Damon Sublett: Eric, Why are J15 signings weighted so much toward athletic position players vs. high ceiling pitchers like Defrank?  Seems very rare to see J15 pitchers get >$1mm.  Are the good athletes simply funneled toward SS in Latin America, and there’s no such thing as an athletic pitcher-only at age 15?  I understand pitching development is much more non-linear than hitting development, do scouts simply perceive what’s essentially a high school sophomore pitching prospect as necessarily risky?  Would a team ever consider going against the grain and targeting pitching talent in J15?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because of guys like Daniel Espino and Grayson Rodriguez and Forrest Whitley and Alex Reyes and Riley Pint and on and one. I like DeFrank a lot and he’s a great prospect, but he’s also going to be playing russian roulette with his joints once a week for the better part of the next half decade before he even sniffs a 40-man roster spot. Most of the Latin American starts in MLB were signed later, when the cement was more dry on their bodies and pitch ability, and their 40-man timeline coincided with a more reasonable pace at which a starter gets developed.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are teams who basically won’t do $X00,000 for a pitcher, ever, in that market.

Travis: Hey Eric, really appreciate your analysis and as a Rangers fan super excited about Gore! Wondering if you’ve had a chance to watch some of Rocker this past season. His prospect hype/minor league success versus MLB results has been really fascinating to me. Midway through the season, he basically shelved his “death ball” slider that was his bread and butter, in favor of utilizing a cutter. Have you ever seen a prospect completely abandon a pitch was successful for years and be successful as a starter? Do you think he brings it back in some sort of capacity in order to level out rest of his arsenal Still hoping he can be a starter for us with a sinker, 4S, cutter and that slider. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure how things will settle for Rocker because he’s already made several changes o his stuff and delivery during a nearly decade-long window as a known prospect. I think the fact that he can make adjustments is a positive thing, but he’s always been more of a fourth starter or closer type of prospect to me because of his health and fastball playability issues.

Ice Cream Helmet: Seems plate discipline and pitch recognition are the toughest tools to actually improve, especially at the majors. But I still read all the time some version of “If Player X can just learn to stay off the slider/improve chase rate/etc.” Does anybody actually get better at this? Who are the best case examples players who have done it at MLB level?
tldr: Is Michael Harris II destined to hit like Jeff Francoeur?

Eric A Longenhagen: They mostly don’t get better at it. Some career big leaguers show improvement over a very long period of time but mostly whether you ID balls and strikes well is a skill you have or you don’t. I love MIchael Harris and think he does enough stuff to be a good player even though he goes through stretches where he’s chasing everything and sucks for a month.

Damon Sublett: Is it too early to get excited about Dexter McCleon Jr?  Or is this guy a generational talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s too early for “Generational” but he is really tooled up and gigantic for a 2028. Plus you’ve gotta love the intersport, multi-generational Remembering Some Guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: Watch Dex take BP and throw a bullpen here last week. It was good. Great event, as always, the Dream Series.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re approaching the two-hour mark but more and more of you are showing up so I’ll keep going for a bit yet.

Shirtless George Brett: I’m mildly fascinated with Asbel Gonzalez. Do you think he ever gets to more (or any) power as he ages? If not is there a path to MLB for a guy with his extreme tool set?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like him and think he has a shot to grow into relevant pop.

Coral: Wait do you have a giant collection of free MiLB giveaways?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I wasn’t the guy hoarding the giveaways. I have a JA Happ bobblehead and a beach towel (which is in Catty) from my ‘Pigs time. I think that’s it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the giveaways I *do* want, like when I was last in Dunedin they had a Chris Weinke bobblehead night and I needed that.

Muggsy: Is there anything out there showing rise on four seamers increases with vertical location? Seems like there would be more runway to rise throwing to Judge versus say Altuve for extreme examples, if that makes sense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nyeah, see.

Eric A Longenhagen: It does make sense, like your sliders to the glove side of the plate break more than tan ones you locate back door. Your position on the ball has changed enough to create more or less length on those pitches. But also the way the break is measured is impacted by the angle. Two fastballs that have the same IVB/Horiz movement aren’t necessarily the same in terms of quality.

123: Do teams prospect hoard too much or too little?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the team. If you develop players well the answer is probably “too little”, if you can pay good long-term big leaguers the answer is probably “too much”

Guest: Do the yankees just end up swallowing their intl money or can they get any value out of it at all ?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ll be able to do something with it, but probably not a ton. It’s going to depend on how joins that market late, a Cuban or Taiwanese pitcher maybe. Teams who have money this late are subject to the randomness of the later entries. Arizona and St. Louis have money left, too.

KB: Do fans ever recognize you at games and come up and talk to you? I know most MiLB games aren’t flooded with people (except for in the beer garden) and you can often spot scouts pretty easily.

Eric A Longenhagen: Once in a while. Look for me and come say hi, just keep it low key. I’m the handsome one.

Shane: Who has the better career as a starter? Early or Tolle?

Eric A Longenhagen: Give me the better athlete with the better breaking stuff: Early.

Matt: I feel like the prospects/young players who get the least attention are the guys who break out right as they are losing their rookie eligibility. In this case I am thinking of guys like Troy Melton, Luis Morales, and Braxton Ashcraft, who all took steps forward late last year. Based on what you saw, would you upgrade any of those guys beyond the 50s you had on them on your last evaluations? Or do your last evaluations more or less hold?

Eric A Longenhagen: still on those guys to that degree, am glad they looked good when they debuted because I was kind of on an island stuffing them (Ashcraft and Melton at least, Morales idk) as high as I did twelve months ago.

Guest: What is your preferred method to over caffeinate? Drip, espresso, Monster, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never had an energy drink. I tried a Four Loko in college, I guess. Coffee. Drip at home, Cortado out in the world.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not crushing huge amounts of caffeine and i swear I like coffee for the smell, taste, and holding a warm thing.

Jedixson Paez Ultras: Heard you on Sox Machine a month or so ago talking about guys like Paez or Duncan Davitt having perhaps under-indexed upsides based on the potential that they could wind up with like 7 command. Are there other player achetypes/skills that you think can lead to guys having under appreciated potential right tail outcomes?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are more guys with hit tools that will allow them to outperform their raw power in games and I don’t think I’ve captured enough of them in my process. Like it’s onlya  couple of guys per year who I might give a 50 raw power, 55-60 game power to, and there are probably a handful more of them.

Insert Witty Name Here: What do you want to see Aroon do this year to bump him up a half grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Felt last year like he was a 45 on talent whose grade I nerfed to 40+ because a) multi-year DSL, b) injured/small sample in ’24

Eric A Longenhagen: Once he started hitting in full season ball it felt okay to 45 him

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s gonna stay there fyi

Eric A Longenhagen: Late on fastballs, just okay 2B defender, data went from elite contact in ’24 small sample to just above average in ’25. Like him, 45 look 2B/3B

Randall Cunningham: Enjoyed Brendan’s Mariners list. How involved are you in that or does he consult you on the rankings/grades? Any players you are higher or lower on than his list?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re cross-checking each others 40+ tier and above, and generally using each other the way we would a scout source while compiling the lists ourselves. I don’t think Laz Montes will hit enough to have him where Beeg put him, but I also don’t think he’s crazy for doing it.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Sorry for the dumb question, but why does college use metal bats anyway? When did that become standard? I imagine wood bats have existed for a lot longer….

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not a stupid question, but the answer might make you feel kinda silly: They don’t break. Travelling with enough wood bats for the team to account for breakage is logistically difficult when you’re St. Joe’s going to play at St. Louis over the weekend and then back to Philly for midweek games at Rider.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: re: Northwoods League… I’m in the area and am considering sitting on it for a week. Are there sources that cover it in any depth? It’d be nice to have a quick who’s who before going.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not to my knowledge, sounds like a blast.

sodo mojo: If you were Paul Podesta and trying to rebuild the Rockies would you rather have a top heavy farm like the Mariners or a deeper farm system like the Dbacks moving forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: You need depth when you’re starting from scratch. Look at the deals that get done for Gore, etc. Many guys. To trade many players and still have a healthy farm system left requires depth. Rockies are most likely to end up great players via amateur acquisition and trade, not free agency. Set yourself up to have homegrown players and make trades with lots of dudes.

Ryan: Do the Diamondbacks have enough pitching to be contenders this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the depth of their starters but think the ceiling on the group is clearly way below the Gallen/Burnes Oopening Day crew of last year. The bullpen is the area where I think they’re in position to be way, way better than the last few years.

Eric A Longenhagen: Especially if Yilber Diaz looks in ’26 like he did  this winter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cranton coming fast too I bet

Eric A Longenhagen: Can they sneak into the playoffs and then get Puk and Martinez back? That’d be nasty

Jonathan: Speaking of players leaving the Board – I would love to see FanGraphs one day offer projected asset (surplus) value based on, I don’t know, ZiPS + contract data + prospect value.  I know it really isn’t that cut and dried but it would be fun to see various strengths of FG combined that way.

Eric A Longenhagen: Noted, Org-wide power ranking with tables denoting big league talent in a vacuum, then also adjusted for salary, then farm value, then maybe value per draft pick above expectation….it’d be cool.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is there a player archetype you’re generally out on? 2 pitch relievers with no command, corner types with low OBP and bad defense, R/R 1B, wet noodle CF bats, etc?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chase-prone 3B/1B guy

Eric A Longenhagen: righty hitting especially

Daniel: As the roster stands now it looks like the Guardians plan to play Delauter in center. How do you feel about that both from a health perspective as well as his ability there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s the defensive alignment that allows them to have the most potent offense but I don’t think De Lauter is good out there.

Ben: What MiLB player should pull the Bama basketball player and go dominate college?

Eric A Longenhagen: Elijah Green

Salty: Do you think teams may be more hesitant with late-season promotions of their top prospects with the possibility of a work stoppage next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Eric A Longenhagen: But that might not necessarily mean they operate more conservatively, overall.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you think a deal you can make today will look better after the next CBA is ratified, do it.

Alec Asher Wojchiechowski: If you push all draft-eligible players to college, you could potentially have the Jurickson Profars debuting before their American counterparts are even drafted.

Eric A Longenhagen: Unless there’s an international draft

Gino Groover: What is my 90th percentile outcome comp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Joe Crede? Wilmer Flores maybe more like the 75th%

Dan: What do you think about Walcott? does he still have a chance to be a truly special player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hell yeah

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a freak

Eric A Longenhagen: Give it a sec, he’s 19.

smm0589: Where do you see Joshua Baez FV? Believe the hit tool improvements?

Eric A Longenhagen: 40+, I do not

Eric A Longenhagen: Purely an instinctive and visually derived opinion, btw.

Farhandrew Zaidman: I respect the Mookie to OF alignment thing, but I would be shocked if Mookie played even 1 inning off the dirt. He’s locked in at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but did the burden on his body impact his offense?

Eric A Longenhagen: I say yes. Gimme RF Mookie who can actually be a dangerous playoff hitter

LarsBars: Some Yankees fans want George Lombard to start on opening day, what’s a realistic end goal for him this year, level or development-wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: So they can be impatient with him, too? Let him crush in Scranton and kick the door down. If you’re going to burn the bridge with Volpe at least wait another few months to make sure Lombard is definitely the guy and that Volpe isnt.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is Zach McKinstry unironically the best prospect/young player the Dodgers have traded away in the past 5 years?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take Busch off the top of my head.

Eric A Longenhagen: We might be missing someone.

Alex: Best I can figure from BA’s international signings tracker, the Cardinals still have somewhere between $2M and $3M in international money. Is this amount remaining typical, and do you have any idea who they might spend it on?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s common for the Cardinals and it’s part of why they end up with lots of Cuban and Taiwanese players.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are still more of you nerds funneling in here. It’s kind of crazy how many of you are in here right now, it’s more than double the usual.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kai Cenat watch out.

Damon Sublett: Aren’t we all just playing Russian roulette with our joints everyday?

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, I’m going to do my physical therapy exercises. Your boy is an overpronator. Thanks to everyone for coming this week. I will be back next week to take more of your questions. Go explore the rest of our wonderful website and have a great weekend.