Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/23/26
Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.
Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.
How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?
He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.
All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.
Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen
We do have that, just click on the "Show All" tab and you can set filters for age: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-s…
Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?
I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.
The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?
I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.
Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!
This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.
Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks
Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.
You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?
You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.
Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?
Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.
Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.
I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.
After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?
He's back from the dead, imo.
How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?
You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.
Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph
The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?
I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.
This chat interface is so rad.
How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers
I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.
Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?
This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.
When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?
Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.
Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?
I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.
Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!
Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.
Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.
Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.
Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.
Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.
I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?
Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.
But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.
By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?
Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.
Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS
Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.
Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?
Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.
What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?
I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.
In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?
I want Grindlinger
(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)
This has been fixed
Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!
I'm still on Longford, Carter I think is just okay.
more like Eric Lags-at-hangin' amirite
I'm only good at cooking and writing anymore.
athletics and sports all select for outlier/"freakish" traits; are there things that you have seen in baseball that you did not think were humanly possible? did any "freaks" end up really panning out from your perspective?
I've seen deGrom in person three times and was blown away all three times. Acuna's balls in play made retirees at AFL games moan in kind of a scared way. Teenage Tatis BPs were crazy. Watching Gerrit Cole's Fall League debut was crazy. Stephen Strasburg Harrisburg home debut with so many fans taht they ran out of food, had a brown out and a rain delay, and hearing his breaking ball spinning through the humidity throughout the whole ballpark was crazy.
Even Ray Kerr. Like, Kerr is "just" a middle reliever but he's here in part because he's pretty freaky.
Whenever anyone does high-end stuff of any kind, I wanna hopefully be sensitive to that and bet that will play in the big leagues. It doesn't have to be guys who run fast or jump high or who are built like underwear models. It can be Alejandro Kirk framing pitches like he does.
Anyone floating around the minors with speed who could try to completely sell out power for bat control and make it like Chandler Simpson? Or do you need truly 80-grade speed to make that profile work, no 60s or 70s need apply
I think you need at least a 70.
What's your fav defunct baseball site? BrooksBaseball or StatCorner.
Brooks was big for me in college.
I emailed FG support without a reply a few weeks ago but can you possibly let them know to add contact% as possible category to add on milb custom reports. They have swinging strike% but knowing whiff/contact% is different. Thank you
Contact rate doesn't come from the game logs liek the other data, that's Statcast/Hawkeye/Trackman stuff that I source from team people. I'll approach Sean and Co. about integrating it into the board somehow, but it'd be an end of year data point rather than something that could update in real time.
More importantly….how was the Nathan Fielder doc on a 20-80 scale?
Still digesting it, in the 65/70 area for me. OJ Made in America is the 80.
Two-parter: what's the best quote you've ever gotten from a prospect, and what's the dumbest thing you ever heard someone say? I feel like during the lockout we should get more human interest reporting about what it's like to be a pro/amateur ball player.
Not a ton of prospect quotes from me, I talk to some kids at the Combine every year and have some questions for kids on occasion, but those questions are almost always to glean information about how they're being developed rather than the player himself. Jake Burger is really funny, JJ Wetherholt impressed all of us at the combine a few years ago, JA Happ was nice to be around when I was a kid at Lehigh Valley back in '08.
curious if you have thoughts about the hypothetical landscape of college baseball, supposing HS players were excluded from draft eligibility in the next CBA… in particular, would it make home games in a Big10 city more relevant on the level of getting to see some capital-D Dudes before the draft?
Yeah, it's roughly 50 players who I ranked, and probably another 15 or so who I didn't, who get signed out of high school now but wouldn't if HS players are no longer draft eligible. In the bucket of the college player population it isn't a ton of bodies. But it is a lot of the most talented kids. All it takes is one Rocker/Leiter duo to make some noise and grab people's attention, and it would ensure those guys do some version of that, even if it's just for a year or two like in the NBA. But the things that make college baseball tough to watch (all the walks, lack of pitching depth, midweek games that go 4 hours because of all the runs, a bloated run environment because the bats are like golf clubs) would remain.
No question but a feature request: ability to sort Team Stats on the Minor League side like the MLB stats leaderboards. Thanks for the great work!
Oh yeah, that's interesting. I wonder if there might be barriers to coding that retrospectively because affiliates change?
Speed development. I remember Julio Rodriguez was projected early to fall to a corner. What stopped him from doing that? Did he gain speed? Not lose as much as predicted?
There's a Divish article about Julio completely changing his eating and workout habits you should dig up.
How has Aidan Miller looked?
Healthy, mobile, fast. Ends up playing next to Walcott a bunch, so also looks more human.
Among other reasons why purely scouting a stat line is sub-optimal, what percentage of MiLB hits would more usually be outs in the show? Like 10% between fielding, positioning, and "hits" that actually errors?
Man, that's a tough question. It's super relevant. Can we just assess BABIPs and have an okay enough notion?
asked brendan this and curious for your answer as well. Caceras, Gomez, Renteria, Frias. if you were starting a team which one are you taking?
Frias, Gomez, Caceres, Renteria.
When it comes to a player like Bryce Rainer (high strikeout, big power, lots of walks in minors with surprisingly good average for K%) what kind of attributes do you look at to shade up or down on developing better contact? Is it more of a physical thing? More of an approach thing? Odds Rainer can rein in his strikeouts to become an All-star or better MLBer? (pun very much intended)
Lever/swing length (which is kind of a double-edged sword because it's easy to say the longer guys will shorten up as they get stronger {Walcott has} but sometimes they just can't) and feel for altering their hands to help them make contact. Like the way Judge tucks his hands in to shorten up against stuff near his torso. That's how you avoid being too long to make contact in there. Rainer isn't doing that right now, it's realy really long.
Thoughts on Villanova breaking up the Big 5?
Selfish, cynical, douche behavior.
In connection with my earlier question (predicting vs scouting), what *do* the various teams do well? I think as fans we can sometimes overblow this stuff. Like Cleveland and Atlanta really do seem to be able to churn out pitching, and Tampa and Milwaukee always seem to be more than the sum of their parts offensively, and Toronto *typically* seems like they can get their guys to hit – until this year. Et cetera! Who are the orgs who you'd identify as having genuinely repeatable strengths?
Some of it is acquisition related, some of it is player dev, and some of it is deployment. Yes, Cleveland makes pitchers better. They draft strike-throwers and turn them into harder-throwing guys without killing their command. Milwaukee seems to know what kind of bat these guys should be using. Bauers, Turang… they've all changed their gear in meaningful ways. I think bat design/weight/shape cab be tailored for each individual's swing and Milwaukee has done that. Their international department also finds dudes via a "go-wide" strategy, which they also emply in the draft by taking all these HS guys spread across lower seven figure and mid sic figure bonuses. WHen you have great dev, it makes sense to want more bites at the apple and they have that locked in. Tampa deploys guys in the ways they're best suited to succeed. When you have Manny Margot and Corey Dickerson and their skillsets compliment one another, you can put both in the best position to succeed on a rate stat basis. You're turning 45s in a vacuum into 55s on a rate basis, and then creating trade value as if the players are 50s and 55s, dealing those guys when they become expensive and snowballing similar prospects to ensure you always have enough guys around to do this…
Kiley and I wrote a whole chapter in Future Value about this. Obviously that was seven years ago and things are different. We try to do a version of this every year in the System Overviews of the prospect lists to give you an idea of what we think teams are good at.
Okay friends, 90 minute chat today feels like a good re-entry after two weeks off. Thanks for coming, enjoy the world series.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
What does it mean to say Susana has “bad strikes”?
Likely command over control. As in , he can get it over the plate but hits the heart of zone too often and misses his spots.
“I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.” Isn’t solid big league regular, right between a role player and a star?
I feel like if Pratt is a starting shortstop on the best team in baseball, he’s probably a little bit more than a role player. Unless he wasn’t as good as his stats showed or something like that?
But, anyways that’s just like.. my opinion, man.
I hope you feel better Eric. Thanks for the chat