Postseason Manager Report Card: Stephen Vogt

For lack of a more G-rated way to put it, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt managed his ass off during the playoffs. Though let’s be clear up top, a lot of managing is not always a reflection of smart managing. The Guardians operated with their usual duct-taped-together lineup, but in an uncharacteristic break with their recent history, they had just two bona fide starters in Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. That gives us a boatload of managerial decisions to dissect across Vogt’s 11 postseason games, especially on the pitching side. So with the team having fallen just two wins short of reaching the World Series for the first time in a decade, I’m back to grade Vogt’s October performance.
As both Ben Clemens and I have mentioned before each of our previous manager report cards this postseason, I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring the outcome.
Lastly, before we get into the grades, I’ll also reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the skipper that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages, assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, and also dabbles in creating new features as a Junior Developer. Follow him at your own peril: @jonbecker_ on Twitter and @becker.fangraphs.com on Bluesky.
As a Guardians’ fan, I can’t really criticize Vogt. Sure, there were some moves here or there that I found questionnable.
But he did a decent job, with the limits he had in front of him. Messick struggling meant he had to rely on the bullpen more than he likely wanted to. And the bullpen simply isn’t that deep. Maybe he could have given Bibee a bigger role but he clearly didn’t trust him. And he might have been right about that.
The bigger issue was the offensive struggles. But he didn’t have mnay options there at all.
Going forward, the Guardians seem stuck in neutral again. They’ve got some decent front-line players but very little depth. And several players on the roster who probably shouldn’t be in majors. They’ll probably look to trade Kwan this offseason though the pending lockout might complicate that. And not sure he’ll bring back much anyway.
I wonder about the wisdom of batting Jo Adell fourth against righties, against whom he has a wRC+ of 67 on the season. In fact, I’m not sure why he was in the lineup against righties, but he was, and consistently. Perhaps that was a mistake?
Maybe a little recency bias from the ALDS in which Adell did well and Martinez was 0 for 15. He only let Martinez come in for Halpin in the ALCS, Adell was a permanent fixture.
Same as the regular season. Adell started all but 4 games after being acquired and almost always batted 4th. In general, Vogt like to platoon and try guys in different parts of the order. But for some reason, he got stuck on Adell batting 4th against everyone.
Win probability isn’t the metric you want to look at when focusing on pitching decisions. It’s leverage index, the leverage index of the beginning of late defensive half innings while up 5-6 is actually comparable to the same moments down 2-3 — at least, on the road. The rule of thumb I remember is up 4 = down 1 on the road, and up 3 = down 1 at home, and the decay is fairly symmetric, so up 5 = down 2 on the road, etc. Runners on base increase leverage index across the board but also
This justifies Vogt’s decision-making a bit, though it doesn’t completely save him, and an attenuated version of your critique still stands.
Hard to knock a manager when they only have one starter who you can plan on finishing the fifth inning.
I’m honestly not clear on why David Fry was on the roster, let alone pinch hitting. The man hasn’t been able to hit since the 2024 playoffs. I’d have kept Daniel Schneemannon the roster instead of Fry; maybe you lose the emergency third catcher but you get a lot more positional flexibility and somewhat more hitting.