Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/22/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I indeed have COVID and am  probably going to do an abbreviated version of chat today. If anyone wants two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they should holler at me.

Andy: It’s early but any thoughts on next year’s draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like the HS class, I think the college pitching crop will be way better than last year, I’m not sure Ethan Holliday is actually good

Syndergaardengnomes: Too soon for a breakdown of the top rule 5 guys available?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s just such an inefficient, open-ended exercise with an enormous player pool. I could spend a while just scrolling through Roster Resource picking names that stand out to me, but now is not the time for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evan Reifert was one, just browsing the site like normal this week, that stood out to me.

himona: CHW hired Ryan Fuller from BAL as “hitting coordinator”. what was BAL’s draft and dev strategy that produced them so many good young hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: They basically used the Elias-era Houston formula when they picked way up top and were able to land consequential over slot high schoolers in later rounds. Mayo and Gunnar the big two. They also, internally, turn plate discipline and approach into a game within the game which seems to improve the players in a meaningful way

John: Do the Dodgers move Rushing to the OF so they can fit his bat in sooner? Or focus more on developing his skills as a C.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be dying to move him out from behind the plate, you need to have depth at that position because it’s so brutal.

Alexis Anthopolous: Just how bad do the returns for Murphy and Olson look for the (not Sac) A’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Langeliers redeems the Olson trade enough and a bunch of those guys are going to play in the big leagues for at least a little while. Pache flopping hurts but that one isn’t awful. The Murphy deal is. I just think they really, really over-evaluated Esteury. They seemed hot for him the deadline before, too.

Jeremy: Should the Phillies be planning on Andrew Painter in the rotation all season in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just because of innings count/workload stuff, probably not.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How do you integrate ZiPS or other projection systems into your analysis?

Eric A Longenhagen: It can be a sanity check, it might cause me to re-evaluate someone if there’s a huge gap between what ZiPS thinks and what I think. I use data to inform decisions but I’m not running a model.

Guest: Hi Eric,

Thanks for these chats. I’m forever gleaning opinions on prospects. However,nI have several prospects whose recent performance leaves me questioning whether to cut bait or not:

1. Mick Abel, P PHI – control is atrocious and hasn’t improved as he’s moved up the system. Put him on the trade block – ZERO interest. You’ve given him a 50 FV. Still valid? He’s descending prospect charts very quickly.

2. Carson Whisenhunt, P SF – always suspicious of guys lacking a decent FB. Numbers don’t impress.Another 50 FV but I don’t see it. SF does need pitching so I presume he’s relevant still.

3. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF HOU – not showing much at A-, BA gives him a 45 FV an HQ rates him highly. Your thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. I updated Abel thoughts in my 40-man piece this week. His blurb on The Board is fresh.
2. Yeah, his command is still not great and he might slide. Giants list is one of the next few.
3. Never really on him, BA doesn’t use FV.

davealden53: What’s the future of Jett Williams given the massive block in front of him in the Mets infield?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF

Kevin: As a Guardians fan, my eyebrows were raised seeing Chase DeLauter now ranked 10th overall on the big board. Is it safe for me to get excited about him or should I wait until he can stay on the field for a fairly long period of time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Persistent injuries are an issue that will cause him to slide as I do this list cycle

yanks-fan: Long term do we like Rafael Flores or Ben Rice more? Can either stay behind the dish?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flores basically didn’t play in AFL so my thoughts there are sadly TBD. Rice, no. They have their catcher, it’s Wells.

Jerry: Can Alan Roden (112 max EV) access some latent power and have a shot as a regular in 2025? Any other underrated OF’s to keep an eye on for next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still not a ton of launch there, hard hit rate also not crazy or anything. I think he’s more a piece than a regular. For next year? I feel like Trei Cruz could be a Willi Castro type… underrated guys? IDK, open ended questions like that are tough in the moment. And also, I’m doing the rating right?

Guest: Is Cartaya out of the picture as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, catchers take forever. He’s flawed, you hope he’s Zunino type or becomes Tyler Flowers or something

Sodo Mojo: Does Ben Williamson have enough bat to hit at the MLB level.? You gave him a low grade on the Mariners prospect report but he did hit reasonably at AA which is usually where hitting prospects go to die in the M’s org.

Eric A Longenhagen: The grade is low but he made the list. I have an up/down on him, still think that’s right.

Thrice: Got to see them last June in Seattle for the Artist in the Ambulance tour, phenomenal show. Hope you feel better soon.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Marquee was as full as I’ve ever seen it, huge age range for the attendees which was super cool. I did have a bartender with tattoos all over his bald head ask me when I ordered a gimlet, “is that the kind of drink you want in a plastic cup?” and I had to stop myself from Larry Daviding him into the void.

tumtum: Did you get a chance to see Liranzo in AFL? If so, what did you think of his catching and long term viability in the position?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arm is there, ball blocking is not, it will probably take another few years but he has so much switch hitting power for a catcher that I think he’ll eventually be very good

Colin: Why are people falling all over themselves over Caleb Durbin‘s AFL performance when he had a basically identical performance in 2023, and was a year younger then?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is this a thing happening on social media or something? Who cares? He’s a Yankees prospect so people are going to talk about him, he steals bases so fantasy people care about him.

Anon: Can you expand more on the orioles farm game within a game for approach and plate discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s like: expected value added for swinging at this, ev lost for chasing that.

David: Bit of a late draft question. Thoughts on the Mariners approach to drafting the last couple years? Putting a lot into the top of the draft and going after “priority seniors” to offset the draft pool amounts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Super cool, they’ve been able to scoop up a combination of ceiling (with the HS guys), depth, and proximity by getting the priority seniors.

Anon: Can you say the next 3-5 org prospect lists which will come out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rest of the clubs who train here in the East Valley: CHC, ARI, COL, SFG

Roman: Thanks for the year-round prospects updates. Given SD’s payroll limitations and roster turnover, do you think that Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas can cover the bench roles that Solano and Peralta had last year? Eguy in particular looks like a great platoon option for SD alongside Cronenworth/Arraez.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Eguy gets rostered, I think Ornelas they might try to upgrade because you want someone more established and impactful to fill that LHH OF platoon type role (Joc Pederson, Conforto type) and Tirso still has options left.

Buff: To go back to Jett Williams, do you see him as the CF of the future for the Mets?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Scott: You frequently note that a hitter thriving in low minors has a hole that will be exposed later on. Other evaluators don’t seems to write that up as often and sometimes it puts you on an island for better or worse.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve grown totally comfortable with this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d much rather be wrong when the opinion was totally mine than some of the alternatives.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Brandon Young‘s velo gradually declined when he hit AAA and settled around 92 mph. Does your evaluation imply he’ll tick back up to 93-94 after an offseason of rest? He did pitch ~100 innings after being on the shelf for like two years.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on board with your stamina take, and also I think that pitch has movement/angle that will enable it to play even if it isn’t hard, and Young command the heck out of it.

Fuz: Did Kayfus’s performance get him a FV above 35?

Eric A Longenhagen: For sure, should have been on last year’s list.

Giant Gonzales: I’m sorry you’re sick and have to miss Todd Barry. He’s great. Being sick is not so great. My question of the day is about the Red Sox. Am I wrong in thinking that you should hold the big 4 and see how they play instead of cashing out early? Teel is good for a C, but the other 3 have big upsides and if you can develop a 5-6 war star, then you do that instead of trading one or two for a #2 pitcher that needs to be extended, right? I’ve seen this reset so many times since 2000 that I don’t want to see Breslow cash in all the chips when they have money to spend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t trade guys you like and think might be a big deal until you know you’re actually a ’25 contender.

Ben: Is young Chourio better the the older?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah

Beau: have there been any high school prospects from the 2024 class that have forced an adjustment to their pre-draft evaluations based on early SSS in bridge leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, I thought Slade Caldwell looked good, Kellon Lindsey pretty good (don’t know if either moves, had pretty strong grades on both pre draft)

Colton: Odd the Pirates start the year with Bubba in the rotation? Feels like a decent shot at winning ROY and they just got burned by Skenes winning it this year and lost the pick

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess not. He’s not even on the 40-man, you’re taking away from your depth when you add him and have to subtract somebody else. It’s plausible he absolutely kicks down the door, but I’d guess he ends debuting later in ’25 when they need him because of injuries, or late enough that his rookie status and all 3 options can be preserved for ’26

Ben Schneider: Hi Eric, do you think Sutter Health and Steinbrenner will play any differently in MLB games than in PCL or FSL games?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a great question and probably deserves its own article from someone smarter than I am who can use physics or something to ballpark how the change in pitch velocity will impact ball flight at these places. Sacramento is one of the pitcher-friendly PCL parks, but that’s relative to the rest of the PCL, not the big leagues.

Coolby: I’m going to spring training in Arizona for the first time this February! Where in Goodyear should I take my foodie partner  to eat to thank her for indulging my baseball obsession?

Eric A Longenhagen: The west end of the Metro is tough, bro. Go downtown and eat at Lom Wong.

Kate: Any thoughts on Boston Baro? Looks like contact and plate discipline is there, power is behind but at 6’3″ 180ish I would think he taps into more power

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, I dig him. Has feel to hit, projectable, love the lefty-hitting infield broad strokes profile.

Ed: Are we down on Jasson Dominguez and/or Spencer Jones?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a light touch with both those guys this cycle, I think. I had a 50 on Dominguez, nothing crazy. Jones I stuffed.

Tom: Bryce Elridge: Can I dream for a 2025 30 HR Giants player or is that just wishful thinking?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pipe dream

Dadbauer: Should Brewer fans be as excited about Jesus Made than we were about Chourio? Or should we pump the breaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, the data is nuts and he has “the look”. Should he be a top 10 prospect immediately or anything like that? Probably not.

Dan: Very much appreciate that you shared the DSL Mets livestream link a couple of chats ago. Interested to hear how you handle ranking and evaluating prospects like Cristopher Larez, who is clearly talented but is coming off a 56-game PED suspension

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s one where I cop out via he trade value POV and mention him at the end of the list. Is anyone trading for that guy right now? Probably not.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, those Mets DSL streams have featured them playing Milwaukee a bunch lately, for you Made freaks.

carl: i see a lot of charlie condon hate on the internet. thats overblown right? its so early in his career

Eric A Longenhagen: I would never say “hate”, but “skepticism”? Yeah, but in some places on the internet that was present before he draft.

Leric A Ongenhagen: Should the Cardinals move Roby to the pen? He has good stuff, but two lost years with shoulder injuries

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks like they did after he came back toward the end of the year.

Junior Marin: Is there any specific data/trait from DSL prospects that you believe to be a decent predictor of success once the prospects come stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Way more noise than signal for DSL data due to competition quality. I think you can identify red flags in chase and contact rates, but big DSL exit velos are often a product of physical maturity rather than skill.

GraphsFan: Do you continue to follow prospect graduates, or tend to follow / scout ballplayers less closely the further they get from graduating from prospectdom?

Eric A Longenhagen: I watch and follow the big leagues closely

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta, I feel like

Kate: Made gonna go straight to A ball this year, following the recent Brewers’ tradition?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a great and terrifying question that just made Bill Mitchell do a spit take for fear of not getting to photograph him next spring.

Jacob: Do you like the AFL triple headers? Or does it just make for a very long day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the traffic, honestly. I love trying to force myself to keep focusing halfway thru game 3 or whatever, amid 15 combined walks. It isn’t great for writing and actually making stuff for the site, though.

Ben Schneider: Did any of the 40-man additions really surprise you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the really young arms like Juan Carela, Joe Elbis and Jean Cabrera. A big league deal for Justin Hagenman wasn’t on my radar, either.

Kate: Michael Arroyo’s 2024 bring you around at all?  Or was that mostly a product of a super hitter friendly park?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just peeking at his spray chart (and maybe I put on a few swings of him facing stuff on the inner third of the plate while I’ve been chatting, who’s to say?) this is not as red-flaggy. Had a complete inability to pull fastballs, thought he’d get worked up around his hands, at first glance this is better.

Jacob: What would be your biggest updates to the book if you edited it today?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jacob is talking about this Future Value: The Battle for Baseball’s Soul and How Teams Will Find the Next Superstar: Longenhagen, Eric, McDaniel, Kiley, Law, Keith: 9781629377674: Amazon.com: Books

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna write about language modeling, minor league contraction’s knock-on effects, the transfer portal’s knock-on effects

Ben Schneider: When you say you’re looking at stuff on the inner third, do you have a way to quickly filter pitch types and location to watch video?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Smiling and nodding devilishly)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, time for me to split. No chat next week because of Turkey Day (go Roughs). Thanks for chatting, please consider a sub to the site or at least ditch your ad blocker, all of us appreciate your support so very much. Deuces