Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/21

Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’. Let’s get right to it….

Dan: Assuming he comes over this winter, will Ohtani be the #1 prospect in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, I noted he’d be #1 on last year’s 100. Did have some injury issues in the past year, though.

Tommy N.: What do you think of Cal Quantrill now after his first year? Seemed like his breaking pitch needs a lot of refinement

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, that’s been the book on Quantrill for a while. Velo, command, changeup all in place. How much can the curveball progress?

Bobv: Anyone not protected from the Rule 5 draft that surprised you?

Eric A Longenhagen: O’Hearn, Tocci, Strahan

blerg: What does Jose Siri need to do this year to become a top 50 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Next year? If he does what he did statistically again, maybe he’s there. Top 50 guys are typically above average regulars, so go look at the OF WAR leaderboard and glance at anyone with about 2.5-3 WAR or more and that’s what he’s got to be.

Bobv: Whose someone you like more than your peers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you can look at rankings and know that yourself

Zonk: Is David Bote for real?  Did you see him in the AFL, and what did you see?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat is real, but he has no defensive home.

ChiSox2020: White Sox did not protect Jake Peter and Jordan Guerrero from Rule 5. Do they get picked up?

Eric A Longenhagen: With pitchers it just takes confidence that they can pitch out of the bullpen right now to take them, so maybe Guerrero. Peters, I doubt. Most orgs have a guy like that in their system already.

Jordan: What do you think the chances are that a year from now, Akil Baddoo’s name is creeping onto top 100’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re pretty good and non-zero chance he’s already there.

Jonathan: Could you see Luis Medina getting a 50 or strong 45 FV, or is that too rich considering how far away he is and how extreme the profile’s risk is?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s the typical range for high-upside prospects who are far away. Think he’s already there.

(not that) James: Either today or tomorrow is likely to be brutal for Braves’ prospect followers.  Tell me something to ease the pain, please.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, sounds like they’re losing some dudes.

Bryan: How come the industry was so far off on Corey Ray in the 2016 draft? And where does the Brewers farm system rank at present? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the better question is ‘Why do we jump off talented guys after one bad year when we’ve been burned by doing so before?’

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers system is top 5 or 6

Dan: Why has Austin Hays gotten so little love from prospect hawks despite putting up wRC+’s of 168, 167, and 161 in three minor league stops?

Eric A Longenhagen: Corner guy with over-aggressive approach I worry will get exposed in the big leagues

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a 50 on him during the summer (which means you can make a strong argument he should slot toward the back of the arbitrary 100)

Salisbury Steak: What’s Nicky Lopez’s future in KC? Is he good enough for them to move Mondesi off short (there was some talk last year of trying him in center)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give Mondesi a roll initially but I do think Lopez is an everyday big league shortstop

GregG: Is Jeisson Rosario a up and coming prospect that could blow up into the top 100 next year after a solid enough season in AZL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had good numbers in AZL but didn’t look great. Still think he has special hitting ability but his stock held this year, it didn’t improve. He might be a top 100 guy down the road, but not now.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : Is Jesus Sanchez’s upside more Eloy or more Robles?  He seems to have more patience and more of a plan at the plate than he did last year. Has he quieted some of the doubts from last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love Sanchez but doesn’t have Eloy’s power or Robles’ everything else

BK: How does TJ Zeuch’s project as a major leaguer?

Eric A Longenhagen: #4 starter

Pache fanclub : Pache would be a bigger loss for the Braves than would Maitan, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah. Really like Pache (he was prospect 101 on last winter’s 100) but people jumping off the Maitan train are doing so prematurely. Prospect development isn’t linear, there’s still too much talent there to just abandon.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 17

Ian: Do you see Ruddy Giron becoming a regular major leaguer and if so at what position?

Eric A Longenhagen: More utility guy for me.

Mitch: Tobias Myers had a great season in the NYPL, did you get to see him and could you slap a 50 on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t see him but have scouts’ reports from the year. Was a two-way player in high school and was committed to play both ways in college. Was a 6th rounder who took an under slot deal. Has added some velo, sits comfortably in the low-90s, has some breaking ball feel, confident kid. Not very projectable body but I’m kind of intrigued by the overall package. Obviously the numbers are impressive so far. I’ll take athletes with breaking ball feel all day long.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Assume you have to pick one to play SS and cut the other, and their offensive profiles balance each other out: A SS with the range and reaction time of a cheetah being fired out of a cannon but a horrible, ten-hopper-to-first arm, or a SS with the mobility of a statue but could throw Billy Hamilton out at first from the LF wall. Who would you choose?

Eric A Longenhagen: The answer is the guy with the arm, whose range I can at least try to hide with good defensive positioning.

Rick Sanchez: Is Acuna a transcendently good type of prospect, opposed to like, a great one? Thinking about moving him for two top specs (dynasty) and would be interested in your thoughts on if he’s like, a once-in-a-generation type guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love him, but don’t think he’s Harper/Trout or anything.

Liam: Hi Eric, can Gabriel Arias overtake Tatis Jr in the spot for as the main shortstop for the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Answered this last week. Yes. Not a better prospect than Tatis, but by the time he’s ready I think he’ll be the better SS.

Michelle: This Thanksgiving season, I’m thankful for baseball and the great content related to it found here on the electronic pages of Fangraphs.com

Eric A Longenhagen: Same

Liam: Have you seen Nelson Velazquez,OF for Cubs on your travels Eric? any strong opinions on him

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Like him. Has big raw power. He’s a hacker, though, and had some hamstring issues during the summer. Game has some holes but he’s a good prospect and was a great find where he was drafted.

GPT: I’m looking at Rule 5 eligible centerfielders for the Giants at the #2 pick, so far identified Charcer Burks and Carlos Tocci. You wrote up Burks in season, Tocci last offseason. Who do you like more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tocci. Better defensive profile.

BK: Could Lourdes Gurriel break out next year now that he’s got a year of baseball back under his belt? Or would you expect more of Similar production to 2017?

Eric A Longenhagen: Expect more production with the bat, but he’s not a very good defensive infielder and might best project in an outfield corner, so there better be A LOT more bat.

Mark: Sandy Alcantara, fast ball looks too straight. Is he a starter that should throw softer or a future closer ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably relief.

Mike M: On paper – I know, don’t scout the stat line – it sure seems like the Astros won the Ramon Laureano for Brandon Bailey swap with Oakland. Thoughts?

Pb&Js: What happened to Ramon Laureano this year? Any chance it was a fluke and he rebounds?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bailey is a prospect. He’s small, 5-10 or so, with a solid four pitch mix. Low-90s, avg slider, above avg changeup. Has skeptics due to his size but Houston and Oakland tend to (in my opinion, correctly) care less about size alone in pitchers.

Eric A Longenhagen: When I saw Laureano here in AFL I thought he was an everyday player. Nice buy-low opp for Oakland. Not sure why he had such a down year.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Eric, time for the weekly MLB Showdown nostalgia question: Any “lucky” cards that made it onto your teams? Guys who outperformed the metrics on their cards who would come up with the big strikeout or hit at the big moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: No lucky cards, but always the same D20, which I still have and use for MTG.

Alford or Nothing: Is Anthony Alford a disappointment?  Seems like he lost some steam and now opinions are more divisive than before. Can he have an impact in 2018 or beyond?

Eric A Longenhagen: Consider the context if his season. I think he’ll be fine.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a top 100 for me

John: Kinda new to all the scouting grades: is 50, 60, and 70 universally regarded as average, plus, and plus-plus, or do some scouts use them differently?

Eric A Longenhagen: The scouts I talk to use them like that. Main differences from org to org are in the way they put a single number (or letter and number) on a player to describe his future role. Some orgs a 30 is a bench guy, some that’s a career minor leaguer.

Owen: What is the PV/FV on Amed Rosario’s power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously the present power output was bad. Still think there’s thunder in his hands and that he needs to change how he uses his lower half to unlock more of what I think could be 55.60 raw power.

Old timer: What do you make of Logan Shore?  AFL numbers were mixed ; great K-BB ratio but seemingly eminently hittable.

Eric A Longenhagen: Upper-80s/Low-90s, plus change, below avg breaking ball. Low arm slot (dare I say it’s lower now than it was a year ago? Still need to compare video from ’16 and ’17). Potential backend starter.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: After trading Teo at the deadline and now Laureano, does it seem like the Astros are selling low on some pretty solid OF prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, but the 40-man crunch is real. Victims of their own success.

Frank Menechino with a Funny Hat: What are your thoughts on Oakland catching prospect Sean Murphy? Is his prospect stock trending upward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Doesn’t so everything but does some things very well. Receiving is fine, mobility is just okay, arm is elite.

Nils: Hi Eric, have there been any prospects you’ve seen that you were 100% convinced were sure fire RP but ended up working out as SP?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pomeranz. Once he found that cutter he became a different guy. Thought he was a two-pitch prospect in college and didn’t think he’d ever develop a changeup (I guess I was technically right, but he had other outs I didn’t consider)

Concerned fan: Hey Eric, love your work. I was wondering if you think the big guys at the site would let you have your own prospect tab with all your sortable boards etc? I’ve been trying to use some of your rankings and notes but they’re not easily accessible on the site

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll ask. I bookmarked the sortable boards page

adesperateroyal: Eric have you lost hope in Jeison Guzman after a shocking year offensively, or is this what we should expect from a defensive minded shortstop? i remember he was quite a big deal at the beginning of last year

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts are mostly off him now

Curious Dude: Do you think William Contreras will be as good as his brother? If not, what do you predict for his floor? Ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t, more because Willson is so great, nothing against William. Floor is he never makes it. Catchers are volatile. Realistic ceiling is an average everyday catcher, based on my current notes.

jackson: What do you think of Mike Ford?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a soft spot for him but the Yankees mid-year acquisition of McBroom, Cooper, conversion of McKinney to 1B is pretty telling.

Owen: Honeywell or Buehler?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough. Honey by a razor thin margin.

Eric A Longenhagen: Aha! Literally: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Gus: What went wrong with Blake Rutherford this year? Can he bounce back?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was slapping the ball the other way a lot. I don’t know if something physical was causing it or if it was an ill-advised change to approach or what.

Black Friday: What does a prospect analyst buy on Black Friday?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t go out on Black Friday (I did it once and despised it) but the local Zia is having a sale, so maybe I’ll pop in there for a little bit.

Some keen spectator : Would it be helpful for us readers to send you video we have of guys – I’m thinking especially some of the non-Latin J2 guys. If so how would one get that to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I appreciate it, but I’m all good. Do with those as you wish. If I ever did anything like that I’d want to compensate contributors and doing so, while maintaining an infrastructure that makes sure that occurs, is more than I can add to my plate right now.

Friend Of The Show: Thoughts on the Giants prospects being mentioned in a Stanton deal? Beede and Shaw are nominally top 5 Giants prospects, but both seem more like lottery tickets than anything to really dream on. Worth the trade? Is there anyone the Giants should refuse to give up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, they’re top 5 in that system but neither is a lock to be an average regular. Beede was deeply medium in AFL, Shaw was hurt. I’d target Ramos first and foremost.

DynastyGuy: Do you think Julian Merryweather will be able to pitch for CLE, or is he more of a AAA guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has big league stuff, was light on him last offseason.

RAH RAH: Andres Munoz has made some noise coming out of the AFL. Who is your favorite relief prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Favorite? Nolan Blackwood.

BJ: Thoughts on Appel getting DFA’d?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wasn’t 1-1 high on him his draft year but thought he’d be better than he has been.

Eric A Longenhagen: But yeah, he wasn’t demanding a 40-man spot or anything.

Luke Dream Weaver: Which pitching prospect would the Cards most regret giving up for Stanton? Weaver, Flaherty, Alcantara… someone else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reyes

JW: Regarding Ohtani, do you think he’ll succeed more as a pitcher or position player in MLB and why?  Thx

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher. I’m not sold on his ability to make contact vs MLB pitching. Pitching? One o the best athletes I’ve seen on a mound. Upper-90s, multiple plus secondaries.

Scott: Saw a tweet from Chris Oleary saying that “I took a look at Acuna’s swing.

It is an objectively long swing; basically a golf swing.

That works in golf, not baseball. Braves should sell high on Acuna.

Adam James

@goldstar002

@braedenclane @thepainguy @grantmcauley @jclane15 @SteveEnglishbey He hit .344 at AAA.

15 Nov 2017

…”

Eric A Longenhagen: And Gary Sheffield had a horrendous bat wrap. Talent uber alles

mat : Sleeper yankees prospects please!

Eric A Longenhagen: That unassuming name they added to the 40-man yesterday. They were right to do that.

Sad Mariner Fan: Is there anyone I can be justifiably excited about on the farm?

Eric A Longenhagen: They just traded the guy I mentioned in last week’s chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Juan Then.

Terry’s Sarape: What’s your approach to live scouting? Where do you sit?  Do you use electronics?  Do you talk to other scouts? What do you eat?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m mostly behind home plate with the scouts but I get up and move around more than the pro guys do to see open-side swings and pitching mechanics. Amateur guys move around much more. I use a stopwatch but am considering a tablet rather than a notebook next year (weighing the ease of note access vs better mental recall). I don’t typically eat during games and usually not at the ballpark at all.

Peanut Wilson: I see Kebryan Hayes ranked up with Tucker, Newman, and ahead of Kramer in the Pirates system and i dont see why? Not much power for a corner infielder. Should i be more optimistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was never a power guy, rather a plus contact, plus glove guy. I like him.

Slothrop: Best player in the NBA in three years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Durant.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I want it to be Embiid.

Kevin: Who is your dark horse candidate for Rookie of the Year next year for both leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I answered a ROY question last week, just purely a guess off the top of my head with very little consideration or research, and people ate it up on Twitter. Hard pass on all ROY questions. It’s not as important as people make it out to be. Angel Berroa, Jason Jennings, etc, etc.

Sean: I don’t know if it’s widespread enough in the minor league parks yet, but how does stacast data influence the 20-80 scouting scale, if at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s in most minor league parks now but the public doesn’t have access to the data. Maybe the MLB.com guys do?

Brandon M: How are you able to rattle off info about some of the more obscure prospects in any given system? Do you have notes on each individual system that you look at when asked a question about a certain prospect, or are you just that good?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes I’ve got notes, sometimes it’s off the top of my head because I took good notes, reviewed them and cemented them in my dumb head.

John S: a year later, how do you feel about the Padres picking three A ball players in the Rule V and letting them stick? detrimental, great for the players, or meh?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still not sure. Many people across baseball thought it was in bad taste, other love Preller’s hubris. I’ll wait to reserve judgement until after we see if they can develop these guys after a weird year removed from typical in-game reps.

Nick: Which White Sox hitter do you prefer between Burger and Collins?

Eric A Longenhagen: Collins

Tayne: I can’t find your opinion of Jordan Montogmery on the Googles. What do you think of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-new-york-yankees/

Johnny: Cubs left Pedro Araujo exposed to Rule 5, he looked good in AFL, can he survive in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he might be okay right now. More raw velo than you like to leave unprotected but I don’t think he has dominant secondary stuff

LudeBurger: You get ultra sun/ultra moon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. I just fire up Blue if I want to play, typically on a plane with expensive wifi.

Jackson: How do you get your friends who are MLB fans, into prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: They probably have to go to minor league games and see someone who they see in the bigs shortly thereafter? Prospect people are a unique breed.

LudeBurger: Sporer didn’t think wayde infante was a real person* in his chat last week lol

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe because it’s Ynfante? I’m the only one who covers prospects here, I wouldn’t expect Paul to know about an obscure Appy League guy.

Mason: Filia with the 2 diving grabs in the AFL championship game? Is his transition to the outfield looking like a success?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Sam: Surprised the Yanks protected Loaisiga and not Tarpley?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-829-830/

John S: what’s the weirdest non-baseball thing you saw at on a baseball field this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: ….I’m thinking hard about this

Eric A Longenhagen: …

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Rickey Henderson talking to himself, that was weird. But also not exactly non-baseball.

Eric A Longenhagen: OH there was a guy at a Lake Elsinore game with Elvis mutton chops, really short, tight shorts, a tank top, high socks…constantly moving seats, very loud, That was weird.

Eric A Longenhagen: If certain MIL and CHC scouts are in the chat, they will remember that, too.

Guest: You mentioned the other week that you think Seattle is one of the teams that values prospects the least, why is that? Is that thought colored by the fact that they consistently miss on guys? Or that they’re more in a win now mode (no matter how bad the long term strategy might be)?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re trading away legitimate prospects whose value is artificially low because of their proximity to the Majors (Vargas, de Paula, Campos, Then, Zabala, Hernandez) for fringe big leaguers. It’s short-sighted. Their system is bad even though they have good scouts and it’s a huge bummer.

John: Dany Jansen an everyday catcher in a year or two?

Eric A Longenhagen: Opinions are still mixed and I’m not sure where I fall just yet, but leaning yes.

Paul: Did you see the Santos kid that the Giants got for Nunez? He a real prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, 93-95 with a future plus slider. Not sure if he can start, but has a big league arm.

AK: Have any prospects ever asked you about your scouting reports on themselves?  I imagine it would be weird telling a guy directly “Love your raw power, but I don’t think your hit tool is good enough right now.”

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, and I don’t talk to prospects specifically to avoid this kind of interaction. I respect and appreciate everyone’s level of skill as it’s among the top 1% of the human population, but sometimes I have to write shitty things and just hope it isn’t taken personally.

Long Live Jeff Frye: I bet when Rickey talks to himself he still refers to himself in the third person.

Eric A Longenhagen: There was at least one ‘Rickey’ in there, yeah. It was perfect.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’ll be all for this week. Have a wonderful T-day. Go Roughies