Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/6

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: HI everyone. Busy day of games and writing ahead for me so apologies if I cut things short.

12:02
Hunt: What kind of upside do you see in Akil Baddoo?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Chance to be an above-average everyday player

12:02
Bullpen Cart: Bullpen Cart vs pitching prospect in a race to the mound.  Which player you picking?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Gose

12:02
McNulty: Why is Kyle Cody so underrated? He’s got plus stuff and carried his team to a Carolina League championship this year

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Questions about medicals and mental makeup. Stock is definitely up but there’s a reason MIN didn’t sign him as a second rounder a few years ago.

12:03
ChiSox2020: Is Dylan Cease better than or as advertised? I think we all knew he had a good FB and Curve with command issues and that’s what we’re seeing.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Has always been 70 fastball, 5 curve, potential 5 change for me. 50/50 if he’s a starter.

12:04
Neal: Hi Eric. Thanks for chatting. Whom among the Padres 2016 J2 signees do you believe is poised to breakout this year?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Arias

12:04
Marlo: What is the ceiling for Amed Rosario?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: 4 WAR guy if he fixes his in-the-box footwork

12:05
Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Have you heard anything on the Pirate’s Fabricio Macias?  It’s sometimes difficult to find decent scouting reports on international signees.

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Undersized OF prospect with some bat to ball skills

12:07
Delmon Young: If Franco plays well, where are they going to realistically find room for Kingery? Crawford? I don’t see Hernandez sitting.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Kingery starts moving around to other positions which gives PHI a good excuse to screw with his service time.

12:08
Vyse: If there Brewers don’t end up signing another SP could we see Corbin Burnes in the majors to start the year?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it. He’s not even on the 40-man. Anderson, Chacin, Gallardo, Guerra, Houser, Davies, Suter, Nelson, Woodruff….it isn’t like the big club doesn’t have arms with starting experience

12:09
Jack: What is the typical development timeline for high school prospects drafted in the first round?

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: First pro summer in AZL, advanced ones go to full-season ball for their first full pro calendar season, raw ones or kids with an innings limit stay in extended and go to advanced rookie affiliate, maybe finish August in full-season ball.

12:10
Julian: Believe in Duggar?

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:10
David: Yairo (pronounced Jairo?) Munoz has been having a great Spring. The Cardinals also have some questions and health issues across 2B-3B-SS. If any of Wong or Gyorko were hurt, does Munoz have the defensive capabilities to replace either of them at their respective positions? Is he the organization’s best replacement at all three positions?

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: 7 arm but doesn’t have the lateral range to play SS. Of course, I’ve said that about just about every Cardinals SS for the last eight years or so.

12:12
BJ: Braves list looks great! Very impressive system. Will any other teams will have more 40 FV and above than the Braves’ 32 in your lists?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe SD

12:12
Drew: When reading about Evan White I keep hearing about his “70 glove at 1B”. Can 1B defense matters that much? Positional factors on WAR would indicate that White would be much much more valuable at a CF or even a corner OF.

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more significant than most baseball fans realize, I think. DRS incorporates scoops at 1B into the equation, I think that shows a pretty significant range in quality at 1B.

12:15
J: Could Elijah Cabell merit 1st round consideration?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Has that kind of power/bat speed but there’s pervasive doubt about the bat, so probably not

12:15
Jeff: Isaac Paredes – hype train this summer or next? Either way it’s coming.

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been on the radar for two years now

12:16
Basic question : Is extended spring training a set time length?  Or is it something that’s always sort of going on, and guys stay as long as needed?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: There is a set time length allows for a few weeks downtime between Extended and short-season leagues getting underway and there are scheduled games.

12:17
J: Which FL prep do you think ends up going higher-Connor Scott or Xavier Edwards?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Scott

12:17
Jeff: What’s up with Alec Bohm? He’s mashed everywhere as a college bat but all seems quiet around him. Plate discipline and defense issues?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: We had him as a 1st rounder on our draft rankings and he’s trending up for our next update: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

12:18
Drew: Have college draftee’s timetables been slowed down recently or is it normal for college players to take this long to hit the majors? I don’t think we’ve had a player from 2016 make it to the majors and after Senzel, Whitley (pre-suspension) was probably the second most likely to break in. What happened to the quick movers?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s always only two or three guys and with a sample that small it’s really easy for randomness to step in and give us 0 college draftees debuting within 12 months of the draft instead of 2.

12:19
Mike: How should Julio Urias be viewed going forward in your opinion? Hows he compare to other graduated prospects guys like Velasquez, Finnegan, Hoffman, Newcomb, Matz in the long run?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: We just don’t know until we see him throw. There’s no way of knowing what his stuff looks like right now.

12:20
Stuafoo: What would you say Sam Carlson’s ETA is? What does he look like if he hits like his 90% projection?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Five years from now, 3 WAR or so

12:20
Ringo: Thoughts on Long Island as an emerging pitching pipeline? Stroman and Matz in the big leagues, Joe Palumbo on the 40, Anthony Kay, Justin Dunn, Mike O’Reilly, Kyle Young, and Nick Fanti the most notables in the minors with success

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: How many people on Long Island? 7 million? I don’t know if 8 out of 7 million is a good ratio for talent actualization off the top of my head.

12:22
Drew: Out of Wright/Soroka/Gohara/Anderson/Allard/Fried/Wentz/Touki, how many average or better starters do the Braves get? What number do they have to get from that group for it to be considered a success?

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: 4 and two great ‘pen arms

12:23
Drew: I was really intrigued by Chris Paddock before his injury. Any updates/reports from his instrux?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Just throwing bullpens last I heard

12:24
Philly: What are your thoughts on Sixto Sanchez?  Are the Pedro comparisons all hype?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: He had a strong ranking on our overall 100 so we obviously like him, but comping him to Pedro is pretty irresponsible.

12:25
Thebird: We face Mick Abel this season, what should we expect when we face him?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: 90-94 with a good breaking ball for an underclass highcshooler

12:26
Nick: Where would you rank Nick Lodolo among college pitchers if he was in the 2018 draft instead of 2019?

12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Second tier, in the 12-20 range probably.

12:26
jg: I know the sample is small and the games are meaningless but Jake Peter has looked great this spring, is there any reason to think he might be a breakout candidate?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, if they hadn’t brought Utley back he may have broken camp with the big club: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-received-by-dod…

12:27
Wally: Is Jeffrey Springs a big league option?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. Good changeup, though.

12:27
A big dumb idiot: Would a viable strategy for building a farm system be to focus on bats in the intl market and arms in the draft?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Such rigidity is probably a bad idea

12:28
Rockie Dangerfield: Do you think Brendan Rodgers or one of the Rockies’ other MI prospects will be ready to slot in and replace DJ LeMahieu full-time next season, or would the Rockies be better served to try to figure out a one-year veteran stopgap?

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Rodgers is probably ready by then, at least to be a big leaguer. Maybe he’s not at peak the moment he arrives, but that’s common.

12:29
Drew: Is there any chance that teams start to view 1B prospects differently in the draft? The offensive bar is so high that first round guys like Naylor, Thaiss, Pavin Smith almost immediately have questions about their profiles. Seems like a low percentage gamble to take in the first round.

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: People in draft rooms go nuts for college trackman data. Naylor just got hot at the right time and a bunch of good scouts were there to see it.

12:30
K26dp: Thanks for the Braves list. You mention a couple times the Braves new hitting coordinator. Who is that, and what difference in philosophy do you think he brings?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Mike Brumley. Has been with LAD, CHC, SEA in the past. Kiley might know more about specific philosophies.

12:33
Drew: How many years do you think it takes for Seattle’s farm system to get back to a middle of the road system? 4?

12:34
Ken: Hi eric- I know Kiley posted the Braves top prospects today.  I see he has an ETA of 2018 for Kyle Wright.   I am not sure if that is for a September callup or if he is anticipating more.  Do you think Wright could be a fixture in the Braves rotation by early in the 2019 season ?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry…
Drew: If they add a 45 and two 40 per year and maybe someone becomes a 50 every other year, you’re probably looking at around four years, yeah.

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Ken: I’d say it’s possible but not likely.

12:36
Jim: Do you believe Kingery can survive at 3rd? Or is outfield more realistic is 2nd continues to be blocked.

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d try CF first

12:37
Jeff: Alex Lange put up 300 IP / 400 Ks at a tippy top tier SEC program as a college SP and has a legit ML pitch in his curve. Brendon Little threw maybe 100 innings at a community (sorry, junior) college and looked like crap – unathletic delivery and junky looking stuff – with the Emeralds once signed. They’re ranked roughly equally or with Little ahead enough for me to wonder, even as someone who habitually overrates prospect LHPs early. What am I missing here? It seems obvious Lange is better.

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Little has a better fastball and the Cubs found something they didn’t like during Lange’s physical.

12:38
Sandy: Has Miguel Andujar’s biggest offensive improvement been his ability to lift the ball? He seems to be doing it much better so far in ST. If so, what changes has he made that led to this?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Made improvements in that area last year which is part of why we shoved him on the 100. Some guys start to get feel for lift naturally (Acnua last year) and others make mechanical tweaks. I didn’t see anything from Adujar that would indicate the latter so for now I assume it’s just feel.

12:39
Jeff: Thoughts on HS LHP Jonathan Childress? He seems like he might be quality

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s on the draft radar for us. Low-90s, so projection on the frame and some breaking ball feel. 40 athlete, not everyone likes the delivery.

12:40
DTH: Eric, I feel personally victimized by your De La Cruz velocity reports. Did it look like rust/ramping up to 100%, or is it down because of a mechanical/strength issue? how much did it change your view of him as a prospect?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s too early to move evals based on velo but his velo was also down for me when he was rehabbing in the AZL last summer. If he’s 88-92 when camp breaks, we have a problem.

12:42
Frank Menechino’s Dog: Any reason why the Braves’ organizational top prospect list got posted before Oakland’s? Will the A’s be coming soon to round out the AL West? Thank you for this chat and all the great work you guys do!

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, I should finish A’s today.

12:42
Anon: Do you think there will come a day when the 20-80 scale gets replaced by something else?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe but I think it’s more likely we start applying it to different things first, like splintering the hit tool into a few different components instead of just one.

12:43
Huaneeto: Talk me into picking up Rogelio Armenteros…please.

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: He can really pitch, he’s deceptive, his velo ticked up last year

12:44
Drew: Not trying to be rude or obtuse but why do guys like Nick Longhi and Sam Travis even garner much prospect attention? It’s pretty clear that corner guys need to hit for power. Is it just hard for scouts to write off a guy who can hit for average?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure we crush 1b prospects without power on this website. Those guys get flagged when you’re auditing an org because they have a good hitting line, you do your diligence on them and you have notes on them so you might as well write them up.

12:46
Jeff: Am I the only person on the planet who ranks the A’s system #1, mostly off of how awesome Puk and Barreto are?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Yea

12:47
Matt: why is the changeup most often that third pitch that a guy needs to develop, usually trailing behind a fastball and a breaking ball?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Changeups aren’t useful in high school when you can just throw 88+ past all but the best high school hitters

12:48
Can’t read good: Not a prospect anymore but stats I saw said Rusney Castillo did well in AAA last year. Is he ever going to be on an MLB roster again?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: No

12:48
Will: Has FanGraphs considered crowdsourcing the prospect reports that appear atop some players’ page like you’ve done for player contract reporting? It would save you guys a ton of time.

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: No offense, they’d be way worse

12:48
Erik: What’s the deal with Wilmer Font? Why is he only a thing now at age 27? That’s just kinda what happens sometimes, or does he have an interesting backstory?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: Font has been interesting for about a decade now. Control never came, he went to Indy ball, came back with LA and began throwing enough strikes to be a relief prospect. Made his MLB debut way back in 2012.

12:50
Runelvys Gergich: What happened to Laureano last year? Tore it up in 2016 and laid a full-season. Heard/see anything?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him last week with Oakland to try to see what the hell was going on and he looks okay, I guess. Pitch selection is there but very little bat control. I haven’t seen him really lay into a ball yet like I did that ’16 Fall League, where I thought he looked like an everyday player.

12:52
Erik: It’s too early to call Mickey Moniak a bust, but can we safely say that he was the wrong pick first overall? Should the Phillies have known that at the time, or was it a defensible pick that just doesn’t seem to be working out so far?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: You can make an argument either way. Like Puk seems like he should have been the obvious guy now but at the time he was a bad-bodied college arm with 40 control, a history of back issues and some makeup stuff if you care about dumb college kids shenanigans.

12:53
Blank Check: Even though he isn’t really a prospect anymore, how does Brandon Drury project? How good can he be?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Like him. Chance to be a 50.

12:54
Alastar: What kind of upside does Luis Robert have if his hit tool clicks? There seems to be a lot of positive reports on him out of spring training.

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Superstar

12:54
Runelvys Gergich: Did you see Donovan Casey last year? Is he a guy? Put up stupid numbers in Rookie Ball, even for a college draftee and looks like he may have some tools

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah saw him hit and pitch at BC. 6 arm, some pop, needed some swing tweaks to get to it. Thought he was pretty interesting:

12:55
Sharp: What do you think the average competitive window/reset phase is for a good organization?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: 3 years

12:56
Tony: Hey Eric, I hope you are well. Could you talk a little bit about what goes on in extended spring training? Are there games all of the time, coaches working with players on something special etc.? Thanks

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s informal games (you can roll innings if they’re dragging) with facilities that allow for more immersive instruction when you’re not playing.

12:57
Duder: Penny for your thoughts on Enyel De Los Santos on PHI: how do his CB and CH look, and is he a potential MOR guy?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: He looks pretty good. Can’t tell if Philly has altered his delivery or not but his stuff is a half tick better than it was last year.

12:57
Sparhawk: How is Mathew Liberatore not the clear cut #1 player in the draft? He has to be this year’s Gore, right?

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Seeing him today. Teams are risk-averse. He has to be head and shoulders above everyone else to go 1. He might be, but if he’s close with a bat or college arm, you probably take the guy who’s closer.

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: SO like, if Liberatore is 93-97, plus curveball, 55 changeup, 50 command and Shane McClanahan is 95-100, 55 breaking ball, 55 changeup, 45 command and two years ahead of Libby from a developmental standpoint…who ya got?

1:00
Billy Beane: Did you and Kiley do all of the AL West teams except the A’s and then release the Atlanta Braves list first just to torment me? Because if you did… Well played.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Tomorrow or Thursday, Billy.

1:01
pickled relish: what’s the deal with Ronny Mauricio? why so highly touted?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: has the actions for SS, some feel to hit, and you can really dream on the frame.

1:01
Buff: You and Kiley seem to be on the low side of Austin Riley’s fielding ability, giving him a future grade of 45 and a “chance” of staying at third. Can you expound on how good you think that chance is?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: 50%, I was impressed by how he looked in the Fall League compared to how he looked in the past, but among actual big league 3B he’s not very good over there

1:02
pH: Why is Josh Hader not in the top 100 prospects?  55FV and still rookie eligible, no?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: No longer eligible. 50 innings OR 45 non-September days on the roster. Same reason Frankie Montas isn’t eligible anymore.

1:03
David Forst: Skipping the A’s list?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley’s gonna skip around and do system’s he’s more comfortable with since he hasn’t had to worry about every prospect on the planet for a couple of years.

1:04
Brad: Lourdes Gurriel and Lazaro Armenteros had a lot of hype when they came to America, but I haven’t much about then since. Are they still considered elite prospects?

1:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Neither was ever considered ‘elite’ and hope it never came across as such while I’ve been at the helm of prospect stuff at the site.

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Lourdes might be a utility guy. Lazarito looked good last summer, has power, can run, might be a good everyday player but there’s a strong chance he moves to LF at some point

1:07
Ari: is robinson ortiz for freal? heard some glowing stuff about him

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmm

1:08
Sean: When you and Kiley put the top 100 together, who was the player you disagreed on most and how was the argument settled?

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Willie Calhoun, perhaps? I think I just screamed until he was put near the top of the 50s

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I must depart. Thanks for coming. My chat schedule might change for next week as I’ll be seeing players in Southern California, so check ye old Twitter for updates.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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MarkAselstine
6 years ago

If I bring the kids to spring training next year, what should I know? (Arizona of course, I don’t want to spend half the trip in the car)