Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/17/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Port Charlotte and sorry for the delay. I had planned on chatting from the Rays stadium during their Extended Spring game against the Orioles, but the Orioles (according to personnel on site) canceled. So I hustled over to a Halloween-themed coffee shop down the road.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Red Sox and Twins canceled three of their four extended ST games this week due to lack of pitching availability on both sides (Boston twice, Minnesota once) so I’ve seen a little less baseball on this leg of the trip than I had planned. I will try not to be machiavellian about how I respond, but I’m pretty frustrated with those orgs at the moment.

Tom: Eric, Justin Campbell keeps coming back strong in short outings. Is he back on the radar as a potential 4? Rule V eligible, so wonder how he fits for Guards future. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him the day before camp broke and was at last night’s game with a scout who covers Cleveland and we both think Campbell is back from the dead. He was throwing harder for my source than he did for me on he last day of ST and has been sitting 93-96 so far, averaging 94.4 mph. That’s up from college. He pitched well in the spring outing I saw, four pitches, feel, built like a starter, moves like a starter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see if he can hold that velo all season as he goes from 0 to a whole slate.

Guest: How high are you feeling on Jonah Tong these days?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same as preseason: Two plus pitches, a third with some amount of utility, sketchy enough command that it will impact his results and keep him more squarely in no. 4 starter territory than mid- or top- of rotation.

Alex: It’s early but any Braves prospect jump out positively this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously Fuentes and Cam Cam, Ethan Bagwell hammering the zone, Gabriel Cesa has been pretty interesting here this week. Michael Martinez too, he has big juice but I’m not sure where that guy’s gonna play.

Guest: Is Dylan Crews cooked?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him three times at Lehigh and thought he looked good. I’m still in. He’s sooo tooled up.

D5on: Hi, Eric! Jesus Made is much bigger now. KLAW says its, “not all good weight.” Brendan shared some concerns, too. BA mentions he’s bigger but they don’t seem to mind. Where do you think?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shortstop is basically out of the question now. Power-hitting 2B/3B look, still really exciting power and bat speed. Could be Ketel, that’d still be awesome, but this caps his grade to where it is now. Like De Vries now has more room on his body for weight and a much better chance to stay at SS than Made. If that makes you prefer him to Made, that’s justifiable.

Nic: What’s your take on Josiah Hartshorn and Taitn Gray? They seem to be two of the biggest breakouts so far. Although its still very early.

Eric A Longenhagen: Aspects of Gray’s skillset were a black box at draft time. How he’d catch pro stuff, how much contact he’d make… they were both tough to assess because he had done so little showcase stuff. The fact that Tampa sent him out to an affiliate at all rather than keep him in Extended is a great sign for how they thought he’d handle it. He’s not catching, so the bar is going to be super high for him. It’s too early to care about hit data (go look at Jake Bauers hit data, do we really think he’s suddenly a 50% hard hit guy? No. So we shouldn’t trust or care about that stuff for anyone yet) but the fact that he’s not striking out a ton is a great sign.

Eric A Longenhagen: This guy has huge power and projection, that piece was obvious at the Combine.

I am the apple: What’s the most underrated baseball-producing region?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends how you want to break up “the south” into sub sections. I think MS/LA/AR is still underrated somehow. Iowa/Kansas/Oklahoma too.

Aidan Miller: How alarming is the back problem?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t sweat it just yet. How worried were you about Painter throughout last year? Aidan’s talented, let’s not freak out. It sucks that they might actually need him at some point and he won’t be ready, but I don’t wanna alter the long term outlook yet.

George: Hey Eric! Maybe this question spoils your Nats list, but I follow their minor league system pretty closely and was really excited about a trio of their young pitchers: Kent, Jose Feliz, and Tejada Jr. All felt like guys with control, innings floor, and a starters mix who might benefit from an extra tick of velo. I know Kent and Tejada both showed up this spring throwing harder, but Feliz has been MIA. Am I off base being excited about them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on that group, Yoel still has messy command but the arm strength, breaking ball quality, projection, athleticism pieces are all there. The others I need to work on yet, writing as I travel here, Nats list next week.

Mark C: As a Brewers fan, I had a lot of trepidations on the Pratt extension. Early season AAA not making me feel any more comfortable. Will he ever hit enough to be worth what they gave him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Even as a guy who is on the lower end of the Pratt eval spectrum, I think he will. He need only be a good utility player and SS defender to justify the deal, and I think that’s exactly what he’s going to be.

Lord Thunder: Besides staying healthy, what does Jonny Farmelo need to do to move up into the next tier of prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe lean out a little bit so he can stay in CF?

Mr. Burrito: The passing of Davey Lopes made me think of scouting. Lopes had a great career even though he didn’t make MLB until he was 27. In those days, players were considered to “peak” between ages 28 and 32, give or take. Does scouting still use that age range as a guide, or do peak years happen earlier? Also, does age factor differently for different positions, or different skill sets?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s worth exploring if guys’ peaks have shifted during the current era of player development. I think team behavior around “marginal players” has also changed enough that some of their decision making might alter he results of a such a study. I think when a player peaks depends so much on individual factors (likes body composition and mobility) that we’d wanna break up the study into subsets of players.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, do pitchers decline sooner because they’re throwing harder earlier? There are all kinds of variables shifting around.

NFP: Do you have any insight on why Esteban Mejia (or any pitcher) may have raised his arm slot? Cheap IVB? Better command/control? Different breaking ball shapes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really excited to put on that game tonight to see two young bucks sit 100. It’s possible it was changed for command-related purposes rather than anything to do with the characteristics of his stuff. He had a lot of stuff ailing up and away from him last year, maybe staying on top of, or behind, the baseball more often will get him in the zone. He should be considered a long-term dev project rather than a guy who could ascend quickly, I think it’s okay for them to tinker.

BG: Any dart throw lower-level RPs who could reach the majors by end of this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Does Gage Wood count? Why is that guy in A Ball?

Emperor of Dirt: Can Kyle Hurt provide a template for the Dodgers’ development of Chayce McDermott or are similarities between the two right-handers mostly superficial?

Eric A Longenhagen: A scout yesterday, “Classic Dodgers reclamation project who could be nothing or could be really good”. Whatever changes they try to make will probably be evident in a couple of weeks after he’s in the org.

George: I have a question about process. How much of your grades or analysis stems from an original observation, say something like Gavin Fien’s swing look like it’ll struggle against velocity vs hearing someone else say “teams think Fien will struggle against velo” and then trying to get a look that to either affirm or dismiss that concern. I feel like I can read or hear something about a guy and then form an opinion on whether I think that is true or important, but I rarely watch someone and have a completely uninfluenced evaluation.

Eric A Longenhagen: I try to make what I write here be as much of what I think as possible. There have been times when covering the entirety of the minors, draft and international make it tough to have a wholly novel opinion about every single player, and that’s when I’m tapping contacts with teams for their thoughts. I think social media prospect-curious environment online is not conducive to original thought. I had Yankees bloggers dragging me last year for thinking Roderick Arias was bad because…why? They thought he was good. How? Someone told them he was, or they saw nothing but highlights of him doing good things as they scrolled socials and weren’t watching him swing underneath every decent fastball he saw?

Murph: Josuar v. De Vries – if you can only pick one, who would you choose? Keep up the great work!

Eric A Longenhagen: Leo. Josuar might have re-injured himself yesterday btw. Might have just been removed as a precaution, need to see SF lineups for today to know for sure.

dooz: Blaze Jordan and LuJames Groover. Anything to be excited about here? and is there an opportunity with the big league club?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like them both as role players, not studs. Arizona is so injured that I’d have to think they’re thinnest in front of Gino.

What’s in a name: Talk me off the “Anthony Nunez is the new Cade Smith” ledge before I hurt myself from overexcitement. He has the great sweeper, changeup / splitter with excellent depth, and now the four-seam is 96-97 with 18-19 vert…

Eric A Longenhagen: I will not

Guards! Guards!: I asked Brendan about short levers being a measurable or vibes, and he stated it was a measurable. Does any team actually care and/or measure arm-length in the sense of swing biomechanics, or is it just sort baked into the whole package by the time a player is drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams are tracking it. I wanted to snap a pic of the tablet the scout was using in front of me last night as an example of how many different characteristics like that were being tracked, subjectively or otherwise. Swing length and lever length are different things but it’s more feasible for me to look at a guy and make an assessment of the physical trait than it is to assess swing length in the same way Savant does it.

Eric A Longenhagen: You

Eric A Longenhagen: You’d be surprised how many things the Hawkeye tech can track about a player’s body and movement.

Ozzie: If Dax Whitney were eligible, would he be the top pitcher taken in the upcoming draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Him or Flora

Ozzie: Sal Stewart looks like the real deal. Given the end of last season and the hot start this season, do you think you were a bit low on the power grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looking that way. Totally reshaped his body. Love the kid’s energy and intensity. I’ll have to hang my hat on being high guy on him pre-draft because since then I’ve been too low.

FannyGraphy: Are certain type pitching prospects more likely to learn new pitches? Does that get projected in their future value? Like certain body or arm slot types?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve tended to project changeups more aggressively for pitchers with loose arms. Guys with vertical arm slots often struggled to create tailing action on their changeups but now there are so many different grips (from splits, to airbender style, to kick changes) that I think more guys can learn a good one. I do think breaking ball spin is an inherent trait and it’s a little less feasible to assume someone can develop a quality breaker when they aren’t already showing you one at least some of the time. Guys who can spin it but throw slower curveballs can usually add a slider or cutter and have it be effective. In general I think pitch design has allowed lots of guys to throw at least one or two pitches that they otherwise would not have, because they’re being installed almost like software.

Dope: Reminder to report at least one piece of info before the end of the chat

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m counting “Orioles banged their first Extended game, Red Sox and Twins three of their first four, wtf I’m mad” as my reporting nugget today.

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s gonna happen if/when we end up with even fewer minor league roster spots after the next CBA?

Warren: So Zac Veen got sober and put on 40 pounds, and now he’s worse?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s almost like it had nothing to do with any of that and had everything to do with the way his hands work (or dont)

doughboy: Bryce Rainer is striking out 44% of the time – which albeit SSS is troubling. His scouting report speaks to his contact concerns. Interestingly enough his swinging strike rate remains around the same. His swing % is down to 32% and his called strike has ballooned to 26%. How do we interpret this?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too early to freak out but I will say his contact spray was overwhelmingly oppo oriented before he got hurt. Still so tooled up that we cranked his FV, he is not without risk.

Guest: there will obviously be an adjustment period for KMcG at some point, but how is he so good already

Eric A Longenhagen: Has always seemed locked in on every pitch, ultra-competitive kid, never overwhelmed by game speed changing as he’s risen. Stud.

J: I’d be happy to get shelled by some prospects if they need pitching

Eric A Longenhagen: Me too but I don’t think sitting 65 would do the kids any favors.

Go Mudcats: What is the best drink name, in your opinion, at that coffee shop? Or did they not lean into the Halloween theme in the drink names?

Eric A Longenhagen: I ordered a cortado as soon as i walked in so i could sit down with you guys asap. Lemme peek at the board and see if they have themed drinks

Phil: So, the coffee shop has pumpkins and ghosts and whatnot, but year-round? That seems like an odd choice. Do they have pumpkin-spice beverages also?

Eric A Longenhagen: Year round. Goth girls need a place to read and do art.

Eric A Longenhagen: No spooky drink names. Let’s think of some

Adam: Is it a common situation for Extended Spring games to be cancelled due to roster issues?

Eric A Longenhagen: It happens once in a while, but three of your first four games? Your very first game? C’mon Florida orgs.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Florida orgs have always seemed a little less organized to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: And less creative

Wood: If you were to relocate Boston and Minnesota, which cities would you move them to?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rather have a new complex in Chandler than a data center or chip factory

Eric A Longenhagen: East of the 101 would be cool, too.

Bucs: Seth Hernandez is pretty good huh? How far can he realistically get this year. Is his MLB ETA still years off, or can he be a fast riser?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s where I was gonna hustle after learning of the Orioles cancellation but I would have had to miss chat entirely and juuuust gotten up to Tampa for first pitch. He’s awesome, he needs to be promoted at least one time before hitters will be able to confidently wait him out. These A ball kids have no shot.

Adam: Has one performance ever completely changed your mind about a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm. I can think of situations where I wish it had (Michael Harris) and some where I left unenthused (Kevin Gowdy) but I’m struggling to think of a guy who I didn’t like who flipped the script on one look.

DJ: Any new intel to share on Phillies SS prospect Romeli Espinosa?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but the Phils have started steaming their complex games so we can all watch together.

Eric A Longenhagen: 4/17/26 Team Canada @ FCL Phillies

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s live right now

Anon: Messick has looked great so far. Regression is obviously due but is it worth a re-eval on his #3 projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: Feeling pretty good about where I’ve had him.

OW: Hello Mr. Longenhagen! Thanks for these as always. How long do you think Hinds has to prove himself at the big league level before Héctor Rodríguez is brought up instead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Six weeks feels like enough runway to see if Rece has made adjustments

Nuxie: How have Steele hall and Ty Lewis looked?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lewis still striking out a ton, Hall left back in Extended worried a source I talked to yesterday, but I’ve been on the road all month and have not seen any AZ extended yet.

Goule: Do scouts have reports or talk about other scouts? Like this guys an 80 when it comes to pitching but couldn’t identify a hitting prospect to save his life.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, same as with any work cohort people have opinions about the others and they can be good or bad. I’m not above gossip, I’m from a little town. Most of them are a joy to be around.

Darryl Vanilla: What would a Machiavellian response to cancellations look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Building a terrifying bipedal robot with cameras for eyes that can sit in the scout section the rest of the summer and provide me everything I need while also replacing every Orioles players’ cap with last year’s controversial double-a cap.

EccentricATLFan: Asked BG a few weeks ago but wanted to see your response as well.  With ABS challenges, are there any prospects who you feel that their challenge patterns are made specifically to mask and/or mitigate any issues at the plate?  (To use 2025 as an example, while Deyvison De Los Santos had his challenges all around the zone, Zac Veen’s challenges were all down and/or away but none inside at all.)

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmm that’s really interesting. I wonder how much the hitters know about themselves and how much that influences the way they’re challenging. Like, “I tend to take low strikes that I shouldn’t and so I should not challenge what I think are low balls because they might be strikes”

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay guys, I’m gonna split and decide what to do with my last day here. Talk to y’all next Friday when I’ll finally be back home in AZ.