Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/24/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from the kitchen island in Tempe, I’m happy to be home and chatting from my usual spot for the first time in a month. The Nats list ran today, so go check that out. Brendan published Royals Wednesday, enjoy that, too.

NFP: Victor Figueroa real or no real?

Eric A Longenhagen: Watched a bunch of him this week while tying loose ends on Nats and his swing does look different.

Eric A Longenhagen: More viable, actually accessing the power. Let’s see if the spray changed…

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks pretty similar. Contact rate actually down compared to last year, but it’s early… Needs more info.

Pirates: Talk me off the ledge regarding Konnor Griffin. Is this still adjusting? Right now nothings working for him

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a kid, give him a sec.

Yojimbo: Feel free to pick one or both of these:
George Lombard Jr. is currently obliterating baseballs in AA. What’s your current take on him? Is he approaching MLB ready status?

A Good Mook: Franklin Arias has learned to elevate and celebrate, eh?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess a thing I’d say generally about the types of questions people tend to have around this time of year (which I totally get) is: we haven’t yet played a month of games. You for sure know of players (including countless big leaguers) who had a really great or really terrible month (or more) which turned out not to be a meaningful indication of their actual talent. Knowing that Domonic Brown, etc. exist, can we find a way to collectively be okay with a “wait and see” mindset for another three weeks?

Eric A Longenhagen: On Lombard: Let Volpe come back and give him some runway to show you what he looks like while Lombard gets simultaneous run in Scranton. If you’re unsatisfied, then assess the Cabby/Volpe/Lombard/Dejong (who am i missing?) group, and if you think Lombard is the best guy, promote him.

Eric A Longenhagen: On Arias: Swing looks the same to me, just pulling late 2025 compared to now

Worried in the Bronx: Carlos Langrange’s first taste of AAA hasn’t been what I hoped. You guys had his ETA as 2028. Think that timeline is still reasonable?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been a 2027 ETA at least since Yankees list ran March 13 and I still think that’s likely. He’ll be added to the 40-man this offseason and pitchers tend to debut in their first year on the 40 because of team need/injuries. He’s the sort of player whose peak will probably be several years after he debuts.

Bill: I was a little surprised Fitz-Gerald didn’t merit a 45+ with a shot at a 50 if he keeps it up. Is it the physical limitations with respect to defense or in game power that is mostly holding him back? It wasn’t clear from the write up. I guess it’s just a profile that will require him to prove it at the high minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s gonna be one or the other. Either he ends up big enough to have power (and has to move off short) or he remains lithe enough for short, in which case it’s tough to see power. There are players for whom this seemed true (Tommy Edman) and the guy found a way to get strong anyway. That’s plausible for Fitz, I suppose. He’s a good prospect. My notes from the fall were better than my notes from this spring, the weather in the NE has been nutty, small sample etc

Murphys: Is there a chance Jesus Made is playing SS for the Brewers by the all star break?

Eric A Longenhagen: Given their standards on defense, I’d be surprised if he debuted at shortstop based on his look this spring. If you see him starting to play some 3B I would view that as a precursor to promotion.

Dalton Crushing: I know he’s post prospect now, but Dalton Rushing is killing it in the opportunities he gets. I know he’ll get the usual one game a week as backup to Will Smith. Freddie is not likely to willingly take games off, but maybe he gets a few more games at first. They’ve said Shohei isn’t going to hit every time he pitches this year, so presumably Rushing gets those at bats. But that’s still not many for a big time hitting prospect who seems like he’s genuinely figuring it out at the major league level right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are other creative ways to get him at-bats (he can hit for Kim or Freeland and be replaced on defense by Espinal), and also think there will be times when he or Smith are dinged up and the other can bear more of the burden. What they’re doing is going well, stay the course.

Baseball learner: Are we higher now on Lagrange as a starter? Is his ceiling similar to Misiorowski or is it limited by lack of extension and high VAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, imo

Bill: Looking forward to the Rays list. A team with a perpetual hole at catcher seems to have a couple interesting ones in Flewelling and Bodine. How do you them developing going forward? Flewelling in particular seems to have taken a sizable step forward offensively.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bodine is the one of those two who could move quickly and A-ball is clearly beneath him, but he’s effectively blocked by Flewelling (who’s three years younger) who is crushing at High-A right now. Flewelling has K risk but he’s got big power all over the zone and plus projection. Noth are potential primary catchers but we’re looking more at ’28 and beyond for both.

Scotty: Pedro Ramirez, the next Barry Bonds or the next Aaron Judge?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice player, was working on him this morning. Short-levered guy who moves the barrel around. 60 hit, 45/50 raw power that plays down a bit due to his style. Gonna be a nice piece, a candidate to slide onto the 100 but at worst be a 45. Don’t think he’s Enmanuel Valdez or anything like that.

Guards! Guards!: Is there data behind the 6’4″ to 6’6″ “prototypical workhorse pitcher” build description that we see in scouting reports? And how much does that even matter going forward, when the workload is 150-180 innings a season instead of the 200+ of the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would say it’s 6-foot-3, give or take. You can just look at the heights of the pitchers who have done well for the last five years and all but a few of them are right around 6’3, especially the righties

Eric A Longenhagen: You can look at it that way or you can look at the bulk of the pitching population, the backend and marginal guys who work low leverage innings. That’s the segment where you could show, “hey, it doesn’t matter so much” and poke holes in this long-held belief.

JoshCleveland: Bunch of fast-starts in the Cleveland Pipeline. Non-top 100 who’s start is most believable in your opinion? Curley, Walton, Robert Arias, Caceres, Chourio, other?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arias

beanbong: Noticed in prospect reports that players either do or don’t have the arm for shortstop. Dansby Swanson led the league in OAA & FRV despite having a bottom quartile arm each year, is that an instance of elite athleticism/body control/hands allowing him to make quick, accurate throws despite a relatively weaker arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would posit yes

Tulsa Time: Kendall George’s 6.4% FB% and 67.3% Oppo% this season make me wonder how Ben Revere and Willy Taveras managed to conceive a child together. Have you seen any indicators of genuine improvement beneath George’s .479 BABIP?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, still like him as a nice part time outfielder

Call me Al: Any information on Alejandro Rosario? I was really hyped for him with your guys glowing praise, but then the injury, then the long layoff not getting the surgery, then the trade and the surgery. What should we expect when he makes it back to the field? Are the Nationals a good place for him to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Surgery was in March so see you next year. Looked like a top 30 overall prospect when last healthy. Obviously this is now a volatile situation beyond your usual TJ surgery, and arguably beyond the Forrest Whitley, Kumar Rocker group of oft-injured guys with maladies we’re at least familiar with. Gauging Rosario’s “value” is tough, this is just a gut feel where he belongs based on his upside.

Scott: Hi Eric- first off, you and your team publish the best prospect analysis out there. I just read through the Nats list, and it’s all great stuff. Lots of new info and even the grades that surprised me made sense in the context of the reports. The one exception was Seaver King. You liked his adjustments in AZ and graded him a 47 just a few months ago. And so far this year he has drastically improved both his swing decisions and his power. Can you provide some more context about what changed in your evaluation to drop him to a 40? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Really, really struggling at shortstop and later than I’m comfortable with to the point of contact. Also not trying to take swing decisions at face value yet, this guy’s two strike chase splits were north of 50% last year.

Jay: What’s this is year’s expected date for teams to gain the extra year of control? Who’s knocking on that door the hardest right now? Waldschmidt? Tibbs? Condon? Clark? Tong? Snelling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say somewhere in middle third of May? That’s based on when teams promoted guys like that last year. (Lawlar, the A’s guys including Clarke, range from mid-month to the 24th or so)

Eric A Longenhagen: Waldschmidt because of team need

Dan Norman Lear: Any updates on Ethan Conrad/injury/ETA/assignment? High-A ambitious?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, lemme see if I can pull that before the end of chat.

Will: Any prep hitters that you’ll be making a big change on since the preseason draft list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eric Booth

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 10. I was skeptical about his swing during the summer, he’s crushing and everyone else seems in.

Tiffy: ERC will be the Yankees number __ starter in 2027

Eric A Longenhagen: 4

Guest: is Cam Smith gonna be one of those where you expect the breakout every year but have to wait a while for it to actually come?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has many similarities with Alec Bohm

Swiftie: Did you ever get that backfield look at Dorian Soto you wanted too?

Eric A Longenhagen: I got one swing, which I’ll share here shortly. As I was en route from Fort Myers to Port Charlotte via a Lyft (45 bucks, cheaper than I thought) the car’s engine overheated and I had to show this young lad what coolant was (though I think he was leaking and not just derelict) and missed the first couple innings of that game. Soto doubled in the only at bat I saw (it was the single most electric thing from my three weeks on the road) and then the Twins and Sox cancelled the rest of their games during the week and I never saw him again.

Guest: How electric was last night’s Schlitter/Tolle match-up? Cam is continuing to evolve at the major league level and is outperforming his prospect pedigree, and Tolle might do the same. Does this speak to their “coach-ability,” or is it just a natural progression from the repetition of pitching so many games?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s both. Cohesion between the org and players, motivated players with the aptitude to manifest changes on the field. Great picks, great job everyone, we get nasty, must-watch division rival matchups fighting for screen time with playoff games in other spors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Clearly, I meant spores

John F: Chris Getz is in his 3rd year now as head of baseball ops, how do you rate what he has done as far as talent acquisition and dev goes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the fringe big leaguers he’s gotten in trades are performing better than I thought (right now Pereira, Vargas), the team is way more exciting than twelve months ago and they’re about to pick first. Change to Int’l approach hasn’t yielded anything yet but the fact they seem inclined to do different stuff in that market is good, too. Still wanna see them turn some random day two picks into WIll Warren type

Kate: A guy like Quentin Young was always going to be a slow burn, but what should the concern level be with his inability to make contact so far?  This is worse than expected, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks bad, looks 30 pounds heavier than he did at the combine already.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ethan Conrad update (via Sahadev): They’re taking it slow and he is not close to returning yet.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay friends, that’s my time for today. I’m gonna get back to work here and chart a course for the Cubs list, Rays list, and my next week of looks back here at home. Talk to you next Friday.