Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/28

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Tempe, let’s do it

AJ: Odds we ever get a NYY rotation with the 3 Luis: Severino, Medina and Gil

Eric A Longenhagen: All in a rotation? Like 10%?

Todd: Royals brass hyped Nick Pratto’s change big time before season. How much are you buying on him? Is he up to a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think what I wrote on the Royals list holds up, not a 50. Still has holes but definitely better now, has the look of a piece but not a 50. I 50’d Alonso and Hoskins, it’s tough to be a 50 1B.

Dave: When do you think you’ll do your first mock? Enough info now to start connecting team to players?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a month out of the draft. Some teams’ ideas are creeping into the aether but it’s not like plans are set in stone. Based on the scout chatter from my amateur games yesterday I’d mock Mayer 1 right now.

The Holy Spirit: What do you think the current odds are for Hoglund and Hill respectively falling to the comp round?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still pop Hoglund middle of the first, I’ll take greater than 50% he goes somewhere on round 1. Hill I bet slips to the comp or beyond.

Dave: What’s with this narrative that Jud Fabian has improved his draft stock after a miserable start to the season? He really hasn’t been that great in May outside of the HRs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, the issues are the issues and have been that way for a while. I still bet he comes off the board somewhere close to 20th. His age is gonna keep model-driven teams on him.

Hannah: What’s the offensive ceiling of Gabriel Moreno? Is he an “arrow up” prospect right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on my 100 and already projects as an everyday catcher, the question is how good of one? He’s definitely over-performing a little bit at the moment.

Billy Spiers: Is Prelipp’s 2022 stock completely dependent on if/what he looks like when he throws next year? Struggling to think of a college draft case like his where a guy with that type of talent had so little track record

Eric A Longenhagen: It might be a Cal Quantrill situation where he doesn’t throw. I think, with pitching, we’ve seen teams take guys based on how they look in bullpens before (Nick Bitsko) and pass on guys despite looking good in the bullpen (Tarik Skubal) and have regretted it. I bet teams will be aggressive and he still goes good next year.

Szakyl: Setting aside whether anybody would give up anything for him, do the Indians have a quality SS and 2B somewhere among Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio, Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias, and Owen Miller in order to trade Cesar Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

Johndarc: During the broadcast yesterday, the Yankee booth discussed how Yankee fans want to hear about non-pitching, non Jasson prospects to look forward to. What do you got for us?

Eric A Longenhagen: Several thousand words: Top 48 Prospects: New York Yankees | FanGraphs Baseball

Mike: Is anyone else fascinated at how Pujols basically *hasnt* declined over the past 5 years? Obviously he’s been bad, but he was bad 5 years ago and hasn’t gotten any worse at all since

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d never thought about it that way and it is kind of fascinating.

JJ: Hello! Loved the twitch stream with KG the other day. Any chance you’ll occasionally livestream the daily prospect notes box score dives?

Eric A Longenhagen: No chance they’re live streamed. I’m publishing the screen records from Sunday’s work on the Youtube channel, though.

Wood bat leagues: How have the new MLB-sponsored college wood bat leagues affected rosters in the non-Cape Cod leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question, I’m not sure yet, but that’s a great question.

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s like a whole article

RD: Have you gotten to see Aeverson Arteaga in Giants camp? Giants have been hitting on these international signings so trying to see if I can get ahead of the game with him

Eric A Longenhagen: Two games so far. Looks fine, not blowing the doors off or anything.

Eric A Longenhagen: Manuel Mercedes is blowing the doors off.

Bobby Bonilla: Any new thoughts on Jackson Kowar with his early success? The curveball is getting raves from what I’ve seen on Twitter.

Eric A Longenhagen: he can land it in the zone for looking strikes but I still don’t think it’s going to miss bats. Of the 35 curveballs he’s thrown this year he’s gotten one swing and miss. Careful with Twitter pitch highlights, they’ll warp perspective.

Guest: Sergio Alcantara is only 24 and pairing a 30.2% LD% with a 22.7% walk rate, and even showing a little more HR power in AAA. Any noticeable changes there to suggest he could be more than a MI depth guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have been as high as a 45 on him before, has a rocket arm. Don’t think he’s more than a low-end bench piece, though.

Guest: A certain other American site recently added Cubs SS Cristian Hernandez to their Top 100. Is there remotely enough information on recent IFA guys who’ve yet to play an affiliated game to make that sort of judgment?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, you’re talking about a guy who has been seen a ton in general (though, Cubs Extended games don’t start until June 6th or something like that) and it’s easy to make apples-to-apples comparisons between guys like Hernandez and HS shortstops atop this year’s draft, and have pretty accurate feel for where the J2 kids belong. That’s not to say Hernandez might flop. Like anyone who put Puason in their 100 did so too early and is getting burnt now.

Phillip Jeffries: Any prospects come to mind that could use a change of scenery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Take your pick of the Marlins upper-level OFs, maybe Ryan Boldt…my instincts are to name a bunch of upper-level performers blocked rather than guys w/ dev friction

Todd: Royals might have their first 4 picks of 2018 all make starts by 2021. Would all be in the 50FV tier ? How would you rank them right now? Lynch Singer Kowar Bubic

Eric A Longenhagen: Lynch, Bubic, Singer, Kowar. Singer and Kowar outside the 50s for me, just think two-pitch guys tend to have diminishing returns later during that window of team control years

Eric A Longenhagen: happened to Hamels, Paddack, etc.

Dave: Ethan Elliott (Padres) has carved through HiA after spending time with alternate site after ST. Is he on the fast track?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so. SD has a history of pushing arms like him quickly. I felt like I was aggressive with him on the SD list and already he might be too low

Daulton’s mom: Will Daulton Varsho ever hit in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, wish he’d get regular at-bats for more than six consecutive days…

Smalls: Hunter Greene has been dominate thus far and bias aside he seemed ranked low this off-season for someone who can so easily achieve elite high velocity.  Anything you’ve seen or heard that might merit and grade increase thus far? Reds have been hyping up his slider

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, his slider is better. Was ranked low due to injury and the way his delivery changed unexpectedly last year.

Joe H: Do you see any changes to the draft like reading picks, making the draft order a serpentine order to lesson the benefit of tanking, making teams that get a competitive balance pick spend a certain amount on their major league team or the team loses the pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’d be into trading picks, and it’d be cool for there to be some post-season tournament in which non-playoff teams play for extra picks. I like some of your ideas but MLB isn’t going to incentivize spending.

Recca: Could you rank some 2021 draft eligible catchers from the SEC? Opitz, Rodriguez, Kessler, Hickey, Milazzo, Praytor, Pavolony. Do you consider Kessler a dark horse candidate to be taken first from this group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice pull with Kessler, Lefty stick with good feel for contact, pretty simple cut, strength-driven gap power. Below avg receiever. I think his offensive potential means Hickey comes off first, then I think Kessler has an argument over Pav and Praytor because the feel for contact there is better. The other guys have more juice but I’m not sure their swings change. CJ and Milazzo feel like low-variance backups to me, I’m not an Opitz guy.

Phillip Jeffries: WE’RE NOT GONNA TALK ABOUT JUDY

Oddball Herrera: Been keeping an eye on Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 at all?   His xWOBA has been creeping up to league average, am I foolishly holding out hope that this is just slowly coming out of an adjustment period?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think your heads on straight

Kevin: In a normal year, how many guys drafted in rounds 11-40 get a 6 digit bonus? How much could you expect if you’re a Juco guy (with a D1 scholarship pending) drafted in the 15-25 round range?

Eric A Longenhagen: another great question. You’ll see lots of guys get $125k, maybe only a handful get something closer to 400k.You’re shooting for that 125 to 250 range

Kevin: Is there generally a run on players in the 11th round, when teams can add $125k to their bonus without it counting? Like would the talent taken in the 11th be even better than the 9th/10th?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts have a 125k bucket of players and that 11th round is when you take the guys among them who you think are the best, it’s also a time when teams have their bonus calc from the top ten rounds done and can take an over slot guy if they have the room in their pool.

Joe H: With fewer minor league teams and less of a need to fill out those rosters, do you think that changes how teams draft in the later rounds? Also do you still see teams aggressively taking senior signs to save money in rounds 7-10 to give larger bonuses to other players or do you think those rounds will be more chalk as far as talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the glut of older college players after a 5 round draft means that something like what you’re describing with the seniors will happen but it might be more discount covid juniors rather than true seniors. Pushing more of your bonus pool into fewer baskets makes sense if you have a really deep system with few minor league roster spots available.

Heg: So I know you (like most prospect writers) don’t spend too much reading what other sites say in their evaluations. Even so, what do you think is happening when two or more sites report radically different tool grades and assessments on prospects they’ve seen at roughly the same time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huh, I am nosy enough to wonder what you’re referring to. There are lots of plausible explanations, the most likely of which is: someone is wrong. That happens.

Kate: Have you caught either of Jhoan Duran‘s first two starts at AAA?  Sounds like his stuff has been pretty electric.  Any chance we see him in the majors soon (once he’s fully built up his pitch count)?  Have to think the Twins could use a talent injection at this point.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not but I agree they need the jolt

Kevin: Are bonuses paid to 11th-40th round draftees made public? What’s the median/mean amount?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, MLB has a great tracker: MLB Draft Tracker | MLB.com

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t calc the mean for you in real time

Kate: What do you make of Kieboom at this point?  I assume he’s still working on the swing change he implemented in the offseason at AAA (which is prob part of the reason for his struggles so far)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m just out

David: It seems overall there has not been a lot of prospect movement up levels yet, when do you think that will change? Next month? Post Draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s been a couple weeks

Eric A Longenhagen: give it a few more

Mike: Would you still give Manoah a 45+ after the clear strides he made behind closed doors last year? Two pitches and spin rates look real

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t watched yesterday’s start yet because I was at games all day. I know he carved. If the changeup is better then he belongs on the 100. If it doesn’t, he doesn’t.

LFC Mike: Any adjusted expectations for Sixto Sanchez as looks like mid to late June for the call up?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I expect he’ll be solid when healthy but not always healthy

graphsman: will no-longer rookie-eligible players be removed from the board in season? mostly just think it’d be funny to see the White Sox system with their top 4 players all graduated

Eric A Longenhagen: they will be, let me finish these last couple lists

Kate: Any word on injuries to Jordan Adams and Jordan Walker?  Both have been kind of mysteriously missing without any real reports.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure, I’ll have Adams news soon since Angels list is next. Will ask on Walker, too, thanks for the heads up

Super Max: How have you adjusted your Fastball scouting grades to ever increasing velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes but I’ve more heavily adjusted them based on shape.

Eric A Longenhagen: so like Sixto has elite velo but his heater doesn’t generate elite results because it doesn’t move the way you want it to

Moreno: Why do I hate scouting departments (armature, int’l and pro)?

Eric A Longenhagen: because you love money

Kate: Did you get to watch either of Corbin Martin’s two MLB starts?  It didn’t look great, but I’m guessing they would have rather kept him at AAA longer to shake off some of the rust and were kind of forced to bring him up with all the injuries.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna get in and see him vs the Mets, haven’t caught his big league outings

Friends of Chaim: Is Sal Frelick underslot at 4 too much of a stretch? Asking for an entire Greater Boston area

Super Max: I absolutely loved the scouting piece you wrote about Kluber during Spring Training a few years ago. Are you (or Kevin) going to do something similar in the near future, so scout an actual star player in the big leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: oops, frelick answer first…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they have great incentive to go under slot since they don’t have a glut of picks in the comp or anything like that. I think they’re more likely to take a guy from the top tier of five who falls.

Eric A Longenhagen: Super Max, yeah I can do that. I’ll try to get Stroman next week for you.

Eric A Longenhagen: couple more real fast, then I need to split

Dominik: Teams recently have done a good job developing hitters by improving batted ball quality (LA, power) but it still seems they have trouble developing contact quantity which obviously is related to quality of pitching stuff. Are teams having strategies in development to work on increasing contact frequency and if yes what is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re more likely to pursue contact talent and try to develop the components you talked about rather than develop feel for contact

fangraphs reader: Has Ronnie Dawson figured something out? He’s got the 10th lowest swstr% in minor league baseball.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good catch, I noticed that the other night, too. no idea if there’s been a tweak.

Guest: Robert Puason closer to 45 FV or 35+ at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45, still shows you flashes of really good SS defense. Even if he’s a 35 or 40 bat, a switch hitter with some pop who plays SS is a good role p[layer.

Eric A Longenhagen: the 35+ is if the hit tool might bottom out in a huge way, that’s Florial territory.

Guest: Jazz’ stats are slowly beginning to bear an uncanny resemblance to his poor 2020 debut, but with a higher SwStr and lower contact rate. Have you seen anything about the player that’s changed that would make you think he’s going to fend off that trend?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think the change is a trend but he’s clearly a flawed player.

Daniel: Do teams weigh market size/payroll into their draft calculus at all? For example Pittsburgh should draft whichever guy in tier 1 they believe has the highest upside since they know they won’t be able to go out and buy a superstar in free agency so they need to draft and develop one instead

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a sound argument there but it sadly assumes the ownership situation wont change. I agree that small $ teams should consider drafting players who, if they hit, would otherwise be unacquirable.

Alex: Just wanted to pop in and say how much I am enjoying the Sunday night screen records.

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias

Eric A Longenhagen: okay there are lots of good questions in here still but I need to go to my first game of the day. You guys crushed it today, thank you for a great chat. Have a good weekend and stash those questions for next week…