Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 9/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Hola from Tempe, where instructional league is on the horizon. Let’s chat

TJ: Has Jake Cave earned big league playing time for a non NYY team next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps, might take the right organizational fit for him to find at-bats but he has hit well this year.

Oklahomabrave: If the Braves make a trade this offseason which prospect would you make the case they should sell high on due to peaking value and unlikelyness of taking the next step

Eric A Longenhagen: Pending a chhange in opinion based on what I see in the AFL, Riley.

TJ: Do we see someone else going the Padres route this year and stashing rule v draftees on their bit league roster in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’ll likely take trade partners at the top of the Rule 5 draft so it’s not up to a single team, hard to say.

Q-Ball: Who are you looking forward to seeing the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: The fringe guys who looked good on paper this year

Trevin: Can the winner of the CWS beat a Low-A team in a seven game series? What about a High-A team? And would it even be close?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think most full season teams would have a record over .500 if they played a college schedule. If I got to pick the best Low-A squad to take on Florida? Yeah I’ll take the pro club. Would you have asked this question last year after Coastal won?

Chris: Which starting pitchers do you think will have the most anticipated MLB debuts in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honeywell? TB Fans have already been clamoring for it. Such anticipation!

Nick: I read the article on Nick Sinay this morning & watched Chase Utley play for a decade+ so my question is: Is getting HBP a skill? Or is it a function of where you stand in the box and/or whether you’ll get out of the way or not?

Eric A Longenhagen: HBP data shows it’s a ‘skill’ in that it’s something an individual player usually does with consistency. Part of it is how close the hitter is to the plate, part of it is where pitchers feel they need to attack you to get you out, and part of it is a willingness to let the ball hit you.

Zonk: Who are the big spenders so far in this IFA class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody, really. Not really possible to do that anymore with the new CBA.

Estuve: Lucroy’s comments on German Marquez got my attention that he might be pretty good, but I don’t know much about him. What are your thoughts on the young pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mid-90s fastball, plus curveball, chance for an average changeup, maybe a tick above. Was in the big leagues at age 21 and somewhere in the middle of my offseason top 100 last year. I think he’s an above average big leaguer.

Ellis: I have given up on Tyler Glasnow. I am despondent. Please tell me Mitch Keller will save us.

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t you already been saved by Tim Alderson and Brad Lincoln? No? Luis Heredia? No. Sometimes pitching prospects just don’t hit their ceiling. Glasnow, even if he doesn’t ever find passable command, will be a good big league piece if he stays healthy. Stuff is just too good.  Andrew Miller was disappointing for a long time and then suddenly everyone thought we was the sign of a revolution. You can be significant without being perfect.

Bill: Small sample size of course, but Moncada seems to be coming around lately (137 wRC+ in September with a more reasonable 25% K rate). Do you like him to be a big contributor in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll keep saying the same thing about Moncada: He’s going to be frustrating at times and needs polish but he has power, patience and plays a premium position. Those are constants.

Brandon Johnson: Dustin May or AJ Alexy: who’s career are you taking moving forward and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like May better on stuff but he has had injury issues so it’s close.

By the bay: Did you at all see this coming from Matt Olson? How legit is this guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not. It took a significant adjustment on Olson’s part to unlock this.

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen:

The Average Sports Fan: Lost season for Jose De Leon, and not exactly young.  Still hope for a mid rotation starter there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure

Paul: Conditioning and makeup were concerns for WAS pick of Seth Romero. If he can overcome those risks how does his stuff compare to other top LHP in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I don’t think his stuff is out of place among most of the top LHP prospects in baseball

Nick: I saw that Jesse Biddle was pitching in relief for the Mississippi Braves. Could he make the Bigs as a LOOGY?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really a LOOGY delivery, but big league future is likely in relief if he has one. Had shoulder issues this year.

Bort: Should KC convert Josh Staumont into a reliever at this point? If so, how quickly could he move?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not yet. FB/CR combo is big league ready right now so if moved he’s probably a big leaguer immediately.

Gregg: If Jeter Downs (CIN) can stick at SS, does his bat make him above average there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chance for that, but I’m not sure he stays there.

Tim: Comparing ARI SS’s, who has the better chance of locking down SS between Leyba and Chisholm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jazz

Bort: Which minor league reliever/relief prospect are you most bullish about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most great relievers are converted starters so it’s hard to pick pure relief guys. I think Hans Crouse is very likely to be a reliever and could be an elite one.

Ryan: Can you elaborate on what scouts saw with Starling Heredia (LAD) this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Big raw power, pull-heavy approach to contact, more speed than you expect given his size, some traits that could be exploited at upper levels but he’s a physical marvel.

GB: Mackenzie Gore or Forrest Whitley?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Pete: Thoughts on three young SS: Carlos Vargas (TB, from the Smyly trade), Freudis Nova (HOU), and Yasel Antuna (WAS)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vargas is likely a 3B. Has power potential. Nova has big bat speed but might outgrow SS, move to 2B. Antuna has the least offensive potential of the three but perhaps the best chance to stay at SS.

jeffrie: who is your favourite baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Mr. Red. Mr. Met is my least favourite baseball.

andy cannolis: any thoughts on Ryan Yarbrough?

Eric A Longenhagen: CHangeup/command guy, backend starter or rotation depth.

DB: Any interesting players who might be available/selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d ask once 40-man additions are made. I’m not sure, off the top of my head, which teams will be dealing with 40-man crunches.

Bob: Here in Mobile, we’re hearing a lot about Travis Swaggerty and Jeremiah Jackson. Can you tell me the draft prospects for these two? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I got mixed reviews on Swaggerty from his time with Team USA. Not everyone think he’s going to hit. Jackson was mistake-prone this summer and has swing and miss issues but the range and arm for short if he can polish things up.

Xolo: As far as career prospects who broke out in the bigs in their late 20s, is Pirela another Schimpf or could he stick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t watched a lot of Pirela but I saw him plenty while I was living in PA and he was in the NYY system and never envisioned this if it’s real.

Patrick: What sort of ceiling do you have for Adam Haseley’s bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 or 60 hit, 40 game power

Gookie Dawkins: You get to see the AFL in person.  How do you cover instructs – through  contacts?

Eric A Longenhagen: And I;m there as well

Eric A Longenhagen: Instructs in a.m. and AFL at night when they overlap, one Saturday where you get to do instrux at 10, AFL at 12:30 and again at 6. Not sure I’ll be in Florida anymore as clubs are postponing or cancelling instructs all together because of weather.

Patrick: It seems Alfaro still has a way to go in terms of his play behind the plate, but what sort of improvements have you seen so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has looked pretty bad back there from what I’ve seen, if I’m being honest.

Jimbo: Why do teams vary so much in the number of players invited to instructs? I see the Padres have 79 coming. Isn’t that a bit unwieldy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams have drastically different opinions about player development and the Padres cast a wide net in Latin America recently. Their staff is big enough and energetic enough to deal with all those kids.

Patrick: Would you expect Kingery to begin 2018 in Philadelphia (assuming a good ST)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only if Cesar Hernandez is dealt.

Jack: Hi Eric, would you mind playing the ceiling/floor game with Miguel Andujar and Tyler Wade? I feel like it’s always hard to get a good read on Yankees system guys because of hype and who they end up keeping/trading.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a low variance 45 on Wade. I think he’s a utility guy or low-end regular. Andujar is tougher because the tools are big but he’s erratic. Could be a 55, floor is probably a 40.

Anthony: What’s your favorite non-Fall League park?

Eric A Longenhagen: In Arizona? Phoenix Muni. In the US? First Energy Stadium in Reading

ED: What about Ketel Marte for the Dbacks? Long term role for them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Better bat than Ahmed, better glove than Owings.

Anthony: Sandro Fabian continues to refuse to walk. Is it a poor pitch recognition thing or does he just love to swing?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, Vitter’s Disease.

Eric A Longenhagen: Vitters*

Dooduh: Name 5 minor league catchers you see as ML regulars 5 years from now (not counting Mejia).

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Sisco, Collins, Stephenson, Haase, Trevino

Dooduh: Pete Alonso legit as a 1B/DH ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but very little margin for error offensively because that’s the only spot he fits on the defensive spectrum

Anthony: So at this time last year you hyped up Acuna as a potential top 10 guy a year from now. Anyone you could see making that type of jump this timev around?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I had him in the 30s on the overall top 100 last offseason (I think?)  so I’ll look to that range on my SUmmer 100 for a name…

Eric A Longenhagen: I could see a breakout Leody Taveras year or a summer of Luis Robert raking through three levels happening.

The Dude: After seeing that typo, actually curious about who your favorite player is… I’ve followed Buxton for so long and to watch him start putting it together after struggling (not to mention the tools) he’s easily been mine

Eric A Longenhagen: It’ll be Utley until he hangs it up and then Lindor until he does, probably. I like a lot of players, though. Love Guillermo Heredia, Freddy Galvis, Yelich, I marvel at Posey, Scott Schebler. I like a lot of them.

Anthony: Pirates best position-player prospect? Still Meadows?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still think it’s him, yep.

Anthony: Which team has the worst top org prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Off the top of my head, Kansas City?

John: thoughts on Brett Phillips and his future? is he a product of his environment? Raked in California league and in Colorado springs but struggled when he was in Corpus Christy back with his Astros days. K rates are bad especially if he isnt putting 30+ balls over the fence

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s going to hit but maybe he does enough against RHP and on defense to be a low end regular or platoon option?

Oyster Burns: Have you ever scouted a knuckleballer? How weird was that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, I saw Steven Wright as a prospect, Mickey Jannis, the Red Sox had someone experiment with it back around ’09 who I saw work with it during a bullpen session. It;s weird’

Travis: Minter looks really good for the Braves so far. Is he the future closer?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he stays healthy he has that kind of stuff. I had him fairly low on my ATL prospect list because he’s hurt constantly.

Oyster Burns: How did Jonathon Loisaigna (sp) appear out of thin air?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dealt with injuries.

Anthony: Kolby Allard a back-end starter for you, or is there something more there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 55 on him which means I think he’s a #3/4

Win Remerswaal: What kind of major leaguer can Christian Arroyo be?  Tore up AAA but didn’t do well in the majors, still very young. Opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he hits enough to be a solid everyday player

YKnotDisco?!: RIP Miguel Gonzalez

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, this is happening far too often.

Guest: How long do Instrux typically last? Can you give us a sense of what the days are like in Instrux?

Eric A Longenhagen: Varies team-to-team. Some don’t have games at all, some play three or four games and have camp days in between, some play 10 games or so. It’s an environment purely geared for development and at times multiple games are going on at once, new pitchers each inning. Coaches are running around, you rub shoulders with recent big leaguers who are now part of player dev staffs. It’s cool.

Guest: Saw Riley Pint pitch in Asheville a month or so ago. Hit 100, and threw a couple of bugs bunny breakers.  He also uncorked a few wild pitches that hit the backstop, appeared to lose his composure, and looked generally lost at times.  Young kid…future starter or destined for the pen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still believe in his athleticism and makeup enough to think he’ll work it out and start

Bob: Are you bullish on Touki? All I have to go by are stats and a few clips, and he seems to have command issues. But, that curve…good grief.

Eric A Longenhagen: I am. Even if he’s always wild he’ll be a dominant reliever.

Reincarnated Frank Menechino: Eric, do you have anything to say about Lazaro Armenteros, Austin Beck, or Nick Allen? The A’s have some real upside in that young trio. Specifically, Lazarito’s strong season with the bat and on the bases this year seems very encouraging.

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought Lazarito came a long way during the summer and quieted concerns about his swing path by hitting despite it. Beck struggled here and was hard to evaluate but you can see the physical ability is there. I’m flushing what I saw in AZL and starting from scratch with him for instructs. Allen is an incredible defensive player, nobody is sure how much he’s going to hit.

LegallyEagle: Have you spent much time looking at Otani? Would he start straight in the majors or still use a quick tune up in minor league ball when comes over?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only seen him once in person and he was amazing. Was like 97-99 with ease in what was basically his first spring training start. He’s a big leaguer immediately.

hayden: I know this is a prospects chat but which pitcher to stream today, McHugh, Clevinger, Skaggs or Gossettttttttttt

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume you mean for fantasy? I’ve only seen Clevinger recently and thought he looked okay.

Oyster Burns: You can call up any pitcher in the minors to start one, must win major league game. Who do you go with?

Eric A Longenhagen: Today? Honeywell.

Patrick: Which system would you say has the best low minors arms?

Eric A Longenhagen: NYY

Eric A Longenhagen: Perez, Guzman, etc.

Philip: What were your Chris Paddack thoughts pre Tommy John?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-chris-paddack-san-diegos-retur…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not on SD’s instrux roster, btw.

Victor: Would Jarred Kelenic and/or Joe Gray Jr be in your list of top 5 prep prospects right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kelenic might, Gray would not.

Reincarnated Frank Menechino: Does every MLB team have their own equivalent of a “Top 100” list that covers all minor league prospects? How different are those lists from the ones available to the public (BA, yours, ESPN, etc.)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know some of them have lists of various lengths. Some prospects are ranked similarly, some differently, same as they are from list to list in the public sphere. Sometimes our lists are used as part of the algorithm for team lists since it’s a reflection of the industry consensus about a player.

Zack: Any thoughts on Rays LHP Resly Linares?

Eric A Longenhagen: Almost made their summer top 10. low-90s, still has room on the body, breaking ball and changeup feel.

Alex: Pretty sure you gave Zack Burdi a 50 FV before the season. Assuming he returns fine, he still maintain that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, if the stuff comes back.

Batflips for BB: It seems like most prospect lists are very heavy on position players this year. Is that the product of how unpredictable pitchers can be? Just how many more positions there are? The diminishing usage of starting pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure. That would have to be something everyone who does this stuff talks about at some kind of summit or something like that. Pitchers are really volatile. I’ve been doing a research project and looking at various old lists and it’s really hard ranking pitchers.

Hurtado: Who’s the current SS prospect that if he could just figure out how to hit .240/.300/.320 would still be a valuable asset?

Viva Rey Ordonez.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nick Allen or Luis Guillorme perhaps?

Lendel: Eric, is it as hot in Tempe as it is in Vail today? That weather needs to cool off already

Eric A Longenhagen: Still in that 99-101 range right now but the nights are cooling off, the light and air quality are improving and fall is coming.

Dooduh: CKelly, Jansen, Garver, Farmer, McGuire, Ward, AramisGarcia, Sean Murphy….  was expecting to see these

Eric A Longenhagen: Kelly is a slam dunk, I also like Garver, Jansen’s seasons was so crazy it merits a heavy audit, Murphy has a shot. I’m not on Farmer or Garcia just yet. McGuire and Ward are backups for me.

Jay: Do you think even slight changes will help Yandy Diaz hit enough to be a regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, his peripherals are elite.

Brandon Johnson: Do the dodgers have the best catching corps in the minors? And who has the best future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Certanily one of the best. I also like Texas’ group of Morgan, Whatley, Trevino and Pozo.

Jack: Thoughts on Zack Granite? Seems like a slash and dash 4th OF. I read an article about him and his minor league teammate JB Schuck. Is Schuck closer to his floor or ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re on him.

Timothy: Any feedback from scouts on Hunter Greene’s brief appearance in the Pioneer League?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had 98-100 from a source who saw him first outing.

Eric: Thoughts on Jovani Moran? Great numbers in rookie league play this year. Does he have the stuff to back them up?

Eric A Longenhagen: He is currently my white whale.

Canadian Hoser: As a Ranger fan I’m curious about our acquisition of Willie Calhoun. Certainly sounds like he has a strange body size and I am a little concerned that a guy his size (I know, remember Jose Altuve) will be able to cut it in the majors. Whats your opinion? Could he actually be a possibility as a DH as early as next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a big Calhoun fan and think he’s a DH-only. Yes, I think he’s up to stay next year.

Vinicius: Thoughts on Elier Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was totally off him last year after seeing him with Wilmington. Has had such a great season, still working on where to land on him right now.

Jsal: Who is the best position player that is not an OF in the Angels’ system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Thaiss but don’t sleep on Leo Rivas

Babe Lincoln: Disappointing year overall for the Mets system, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I think they added some nice pieces in Peterson, Vientos and Mauricio but lots of guys had bad years or got hurt.

Doug: No love for Daniel Flores, or too soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too soon. He was on my ESPN Insider article about guys with monster upside. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/20563915/baseball-best-high…

Matthew: Does Brandon Dixon have a position or is he destined for a DH role?

Eric A Longenhagen: No position.

Sonny: Assuming Ohtani posts and has success in his first few months as a two-way player what kind of impact does that have on McKay and Greene? Does it convince either of their orgs to let them develop both ways longer or will that be determined more by their own performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think if we eventually get a true two-way guy he’ll be an exception, a unicorn, a freak, not the start of something lots of other guys can do.

joe: Jesus Luzardo, Oakland. He has been dominant recently, Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mid-90s with a potential plus changeup and average breaking ball, mature pitchability.

Aladdin Sane: Candelario is killing it for Detroit so far.  Has your evaluation of him changed significantly this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, still really like him.

Justino: Are there any Cubs pitching prospects that you’d like to see in the AFL this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mills and De La Cruz to see how they’re progressing after looking kind of meh in AZL rehabs. Jake Stinnett, too. Always interesting to check in on guys you also saw when they were amateurs.

Dub: you do realize no one buys espn insider right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know Keith’s stuff is almost entirely on Insider and that it does well enough for him to make a hell of a lot more money than I do.

Max: Just read your insider piece.  Was expecting Vlad Jr to be on there somewhere, does he not make the list due to defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct, just examining best case scenarios which means the list is all up the middle guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: That will do it for me this week. I should have a post up about shortstops and their bodies tomorrow, so look for that. See you next Tuesday, lover of baseball. Be well in the interim.