Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/2

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from Tempe.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here are this morning’s daily notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-52/

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get right to it.

Ron: Albies has 80 games at Triple A with a wRC+ of 85 and OBP below .300. When are we allowed to start being concerned?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the age of a college sophomore and was hitting .290 before the weekend started. He’s fine.

Tommy N.: Do you have any thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? Could he be a fast riser considering his age?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s got sort of a funky, slingy arm action, stuff is solid. Probably needs to be in Double-A. Chance to be a back end guy for me.

Kendrick: What was the first step you took out of HS in learning how to scout/watch games? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d just try to attend minor league games and locally relevant high school games if I were you.

Bob: What is Ryan O’Hearn’s ceiling at the big league level? He is torching the ball.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, think he has a chance to be an average everyday first baseman, full report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-kansas-city-royals/

GoDucks: Has David Peterson surpassed Seth Romero as the best college lefty available in the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: After McKay, I assume? Probably depends on how clubs view Romero’s off-field issues. On stuff? No.

Cool guy: Which of these guys has the best chance of making top 100 lists next year? Kieboom, Marcus Wilson, Duplantier, Pannone

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Probably Kieboom on pedigree but Duplantier’s stuff is the kind that gets you on the back of a list like that and if he’s healthy all year that makes one feel more comfortable about his Rice-era injuries being behind him.

Dom: How can one tell the difference between Matt Andriese’s cutter and change up, when watching the broadcast? They both average 86mph and have cutter/glove side downward movement.

Eric A Longenhagen: Watch to see what fingers the catcher is putting down or try to look at his grip in the glove or, if you’re good, as he’s releasing the ball.

The other Kyle: Thoughts on Mountcastle? SSS but putting it together offensively. Is it sustainable, and do you think he sticks at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can definitely hit but not a SS and probably not an infielder at all. LF for me.

Dale: Thoughts on Cody Reed of the dbacks? Heard he had weight issues which may have contributed to his injury and struggles at A+ last year. Is he in better shape this year seeing as how he is back in form at A ball

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not that he’s had weight issues as much as he arrived in pro ball sitting in the high-80s with no physical projection. He has a really good curveball and he throws strikes, scouts are just skeptical about the fastball playing at upper levels. I haven’t heard of any upticks from this spring but I can check on that today to make sure. Send me a reminder on the Twitter if you have it.

Guest: Is Bo Bichette making you a believer? Do you think he’s a top 100 guy at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s raking, but we’re three weeks in. If he does this all year I have no choice but to consider him, right?

Corntraveler: What does it take for a pitcher to improve his command? Does it sometimes just click for them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some combination of athleticism, mechanical consistency, maybe the right pitching coach, and even something as simple as more reps. It’s probably a little different for each player.

PJ: Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had them ranked Alvarez, Buehler on the Dodgers list and we’re three weeks into the seasons so, still have them in that order.

Tumbler, Whiskey: Tell me about OSU’s Nick Madrigal. He’s mostly playing 2B because Cadyn Grenier, but can he move back to SS in the pros and stick? How high might he go in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: High energy, high baseball IQ player with good bat speed, strike zone recognition, at plus to plus-plus runner who fits defensively on the middle infield. Chance for plus hit, a premium defensive position, valuable speed, intangible leadership qualities. He’s a first rounder for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: But he’s a skinny 5-foot-8 or so….

Dom: Do you believe A’s prospect Daniel Mengden will pitch his way back into the major league rotation by the all-star break?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure on what the timeline will be but I think Mengden is a big leaguer of some kind, 5th starter or swingman type.

John Wick: can you explain what the cubs are doing with jose albertos? is this injury-related, an attempt to limit innings, an attempt to hide him? where do you think he heads once they send him to the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s probably some combination of things but mainly to manage his work load. He’s throwing live BP and stuff like that in extended but I haven’t seen him in games yet.

Tumbler, Whiskey: You noted Jhoan Duran in your notes a few days ago. Did you put any grades on his stuff? Long way to go, but does he look like a starter or reliever to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just an arm strength lottery ticket at this point, but definitely a guy to watch in that system.

GPT: Saw your interesting note about Jose Layer moving to SS a few days ago, good stuff. Anybody else on the Giants XST team that stood out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeffery Parra has a 7 arm and some of the quickest feet I’ve ever seen on a catcher. Not sure if he can hit, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Raffi Vizcaino. Up to 94, average slider. The Giants have two extended teams so lots more to see.

Drew: Any reports on Corey Ray seems like he is struggling a bit

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s dealing with Spontaneous Dental Smallsamplosion.

Tumbler, Whiskey: Jon Duplantier is healthy (for now) and pitching very well. Does he look like a GUY to you? Might he move quickly if he stays healthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wasup to 97 during spring training with a 60 slider.

Babe Lincoln: Everyone hits at Vegas. So how can you/anyone tell whether a 51s player is actually good?

Eric A Longenhagen: By scouting them?

The other Kyle: Domingo Acevedo, future starter or reliever? Whatever the role, will he succeed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Relief for me, and yes I think he could be a dominant late inning arm.

Jacob Pearson: You wrote before that I won’t be able to produce airborne contact with my swing but I have hit 11 homers this season. Am I first-round worthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re probably in that 20-40 range with several other prep outfielders and you have a better chance to stay in CF than a bunch of them while being more polished than others. I’d say there’s a chance.

The other Kyle: Terrible start to year for M. Chapman. At 24, is it time to start wondering if there’s a major-league career here?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s played in 8 games due to wrist injury. He’s always going to have swing and miss issues (the quality of his at-bats before the injury was horrendous) but the glove won’t slump. Be patient.

aaron: How about Nats CF situation…looking at Goodwin..better than Taylor or Bautista for solid production (higher floor?)

Eric A Longenhagen: Taylor has the highest ceiling, Bautista is probably the safest bet of those three to help out. He’s always hit, has a career average up around .290, and is a big, physical, 70 runner. He makes some mental mistakes on the bases. I think I’d play Taylor just to see if he develops. The team is good enough to survive Taylor hitting .210 with some power and if he makes adjustments he could be very valuable. If not then you make a change. At least they have the in-house pieces to do it.

Moltar: Andres Gimenez watch is officially on. So far so good in his admittedly small sample?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely small sample but we’re talking about an 18-year old in full season ball and that’ already very impressive.

Matt: I’ve seen Jordon Adell slipping a lot in other draft rankings, is his prospect status falling to you too? Is it based on new questions on the bat this spring, or the struggles last summer still standing out?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think some of it is misinformation as teams picking in the late-30s and early 40s try to get him to fall. But yeah, I’ve heard some of the tools are down.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was a top 10 pick for me after seeing him last summer

BuenoWaino: Do teams have someone whose entire job consists of scouting other team’s MiLB prospects in anticipation of future trades? If yes, what’s that job title called? If no, how do teams looking to trade for prospects approach evaluating the talent available?

Eric A Longenhagen: Team allocate scouting resources based on what sort of players they’re likely to need reports on. So competing clubs are more likely to have scouts seeing upper-level ball and big league games than they are to send them to low level minor league games at the complexes.

Eric A Longenhagen: If a specific player is the topic of trade discussion, the team usually sends in a special assistant for a look.

Matt: Ignoring proximity to majors and the likelihood of reaching his full potential, which prospect in the minors has the highest ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Moncada? Delvin Perez? Those were the first two that came to mind.

Trevor : Thoughts on Luken Baker? 1st rounder next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m always skeptical of 1B-only guys with no physical projection but he has monster raw power so, if he hits, it’s certainly possible.

YKnotDisco?!: Did Marcus Wilson make some swing adjustments, or is he just getting better results with what he already had?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has made a swing change. Wrote about it last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-427/

Mike: Juan Soto your thoughts long term? Have you seen him in person?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen him in person and he has a chance to hit and hit for power. Was on the back end of my top 100 this year. Potential middle of the order bat, obviously still a high risk prospect because it’s RF-only and he’s eons away.

Pete: Any recent draft developments in the top 5?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Kyle Wright is firmly in there at this point, it will be interesting to see how teams deal with having far less data on Austin Beck than they do with other high end prep bats.

JJP: Do you expect Roman Quinn to get a call up before September?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Vegan Man: What is Mitch White’s ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a good mid-rotation guy

Greg: Where do you stand on MacKenzie Gore? I’ve read people saying he could be better than Greene. Is that too rich?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah that’s a little heavy for me. Gore is really good though, chance for plus command of a bunch of above average or better pitches.

Westernal : Who would you rather have in your organization, Ariel Hernandez or Jacob Barnes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Hernandez has an upper-90s cannon and plus breaking ball but has erratic control. Barnes was a pretty generic middle relief prospect who’d flash 94-95, sit below that, with a 55 slider but he got the most out of his stuff because he located it where he wanted to.

Eric A Longenhagen: Barnes is throwing harder this year, which makes it easier to say him, but as prospects it’s a little tougher. Still think I’d take Barnes.

Y. Mon: What more do I have to do to get called up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I want to see Triple-A pitching adjust to you and force you to do the same, sorry. Charlotte is beautiful, you’ll live.

Sam: Who do you pick first? Austin Beck or MacKenzie Gore?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gore

Westernal : What are the separating factors between Tyler Stephenson and Chris Okey?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stephenson has superior physical tools, Okay is one of the more decorated college catching prospects of the decade.

Paul: It seems like there’s a consensus top four right now in the draft of McKay, Greene, Wright, Lewis in some order. Agree or disagree? And who would be fifth for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in on those four up top right now, would have Gore 5th.

Nathan: Thanks for the chat Eric. I look forward to it every week! Quick question on Amed Rosario. Obviously he can hit and run but in your opinion what is his power potential AND what might be the timeline for him to reach that? I keep hearing about the raw power he can get to when he fills out and I know he’s only 21. But realistically is he years away from the upside? Can he get to even 10 HRs in the meantime?

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect the power to come a little later, like age 24+. I know it’s Vegas but he’s hitting at Triple-A, right? He’s impressive.

Ben: On paper, doesn’t Adam Haseley seem like the A’s kind of player/draft pick? Do you see that happening?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure I agree with you. Oakland drafts haven’t been numbers-driven for a while now and they haven’t had much success with college bats lately. Bukauskas seems more their type as they haven’t been scared to draft shorter arms recently. Jefferies and Shore are both a little undersized, Gray is 6′, etc.

…: how many of the best 1B start out as 1B prospects and how many move there from another position?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most end up trickling down from a better spot on the defensive spectrum as they age. I don’t know the exact ratio but it’s pretty large. And it’s why I treated 1B-only prospects so harshly on the lists. They have to out-hit guys like Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion who hit really well and play 12+ years.

Horace: Have you been following any of the Red Sox minor league relievers? Cosart, Nogosek, Jamie Callahan, Ysla, Pimentel, now Buttrey, Ben Taylor already up and down to the bigs, Kyle Martin–are they the above-average group they seem to me, or just about par with most farm systems?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of the guys you’re describing are relievers and it’s nice Boston is getting them to the bigs but those guys are ubiquitous throughout baseball. It’s a below average system for me.

Erik: Does Scott Kingery have the bat and fielding ability to start anywhere other than 2B? Cesar Hernandez is looking increasingly like a long-term solution at the position.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah if you would have asked me three months ago which one I thought the club would go with long term I would have said Kingery but Hernandez is really playing well. It’s an intersting chance to maybe sell high on a guy with mediocre baseball instincts, but Hernandez has been hitting for long enough that this might be who he is.

Dudley: Clint Frazier’s K, BBs and ISO are at MiL career best-levels but his BAPIP is way down due to elevated GB rate and low FB rate.

SSS noise that should correct itself?

Should I be more encouraged about the former than discouraged about the latter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably worth checking to see if a mechanical change is causing the batted ball shift but if there hasn’t been one it’s probably either SSS or a change in the way Triple-A pitchers are attacking him.

Hans: has your view of Ian Happ changed at all? His average is down and power is up. I’m having a hard time making sense of him and what we mighpext. Any insight would helpme greatly! Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s some swing and miss in there, he can be late at times. But the power on contact is excellent and I think the hit/power combo plays anywhere on the diamond.

Mick: What do you make of Thomas Pannone?

Eric A Longenhagen: Check the link at the top of the post, I wrote about him today.

D MONEYYY: At what point along a prospect’s career, if he puts up wRC+ of 180 at each level, is it fair to say that there’s a future star in the making as opposed to a REALLY GOOD minor leaguer? let’s run this exercise for both a player WITH and WITHOUT pedigree

Eric A Longenhagen: In general I think on-paper performance really starts to be relevant at Double-A.

Wishing for tailwind: The Mariners need rotation help. Are either Moore or Povse likely to jump from AA – and be successful?

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet Moore could come up and be competent but it’s worth asking if asking him to be hampers his development in any way.

Zach: Why isn’t Alex Verdugo taken more seriously as a top prospect? He’s hit at every level and is doing well as a 20 year old in AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: ? He’s 42 on my top 100.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s RF-only, the body has gone backwards since he signed and he’s very aggressive at the plate. I really like the bat but it’s not as if this is a perfect, elite-level prospect.

F U Jobu: I have Kyle Lewis on my prospects list. What do you see as his ETA and potential role? Are expectations still high?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea when the ETA is because he’s still rehabbing the ACL. He’s a potential 25+ homer guy and priority #1 for me during Extended.

NYTT: Acuña playing as well as you expect at high A?

Eric A Longenhagen: Started slow, has been white-hot lately. Still too much noise in the data but from a scouting perspective all the tools are still there so, yes?

JimLindeman15: Paul DeJong…your thoughts/

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him. Graded him more aggressively than I typically do bat-first utility types that can’t play SS because I really think he’s going to hit. Here’s the Cardinals list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

Colin: Are you still as bullish as you were for Julio Urias?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yerp.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 20.

Andrew: Any reports on Tyler Beede’s velo? Thought I read it returned last year after a dip in 2015. The K’s are down. Pitching in SF starting to feel like the only glimmer here.

Eric A Longenhagen: A scout I know had him touching 95, sitting 93 a couple weeks ago.

Chris: Your 1.1 sleeper was Calvin Mitchell. Is he in that conversation now that we’re in May?

Eric A Longenhagen: nope

Dave: Which of the prep arms after Greene do you like best; Baz, Hall Gore, or Rogers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gore, Hall, Rogers, Baz.

Andrew: Any 80 tool guys in this year’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: You could put an 8 on Greene’s arm as a SS, That might be it, I don’t even think there’s an 80 fastball in this year’s draft.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess you could put an 8 on Greene’s fastball if you thought he had room to add weight yet.

Johnny: What’s the separation between Marcus Wilson, Yaino Perez, Cedric Mullins and Monte Harrison? All four have popped up here and there in 2017 but I don’t know if one truly stands above the rest simply by looking at box scores.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mullins got near universal bench OF grades when I did the lists. Wilson has every day player tools but has never hit enough to get to them, which might be changing. Monte Harrison has even better tools than that but has never hit or stayed healthy. Perez is 1B/OF only for me, he’s huge. So there’s a lot of pressure on the bat there.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rank them Harrison, Wilson, Perez, Mullins. Because I’m a sucker for tools and that’s how they line up.

Stew-Art: What have you seen or heard on Sean Newcomb this year? I know he’s coming off the lights out start, but has there been improvements this year before that start?

Eric A Longenhagen: More or less the same guy who has trouble timing his arm swing.

Blerg: What do you think the difference in the future value grade will be between the prospect taken second overall in the upcoming Rule 4 draft and the prospect taken fifth overall?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a half grade? should be a 60 at 1 or 2, a bunch of 55s below that.

Burt Macklin: According the Russell Carleton K% stabilizes after 60 PA. Ryan McMahon is at 90 PA with a 15% k rate. Have you heard anything about a change in approach that would make this sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but literally I’m about to end the chat and go to a Rockies extended game for a few hours where I expect to talk to someone who would know.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, than you for your service to our country, Agent Macklin.

Eric A Longenhagen: On that, I shall depart. Be well, everyone. See you next Tuesday, same chat time (tentatively), same chat station.