KATOH Projects: Super Deep Sleeper Prospects

Over the winter, FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote the equivalent of a novel in the form of 30 organizational prospect lists. Each list included a writeup and scouting grades for every prospect receiving a FV grade of at least 40 — that is, the equivalent of a bench player or middle reliever. For each team, roughly 20-25 prospects (give or take) met this criteria.

Of course, every organization features many more than just 20-25 minor leaguers. What about them? Using my KATOH projection system, I attempted to find the best of the rest. Just as I did last year, I’ve identified the players with the most promising statistical profiles who missed Eric’s 40 FV cutoff.

I think this goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: these are non-prospects of the worst kind. They were ranked below the future utility players, below the future middle relievers, below the toolsy teenagers who were overmatched in Rookie ball, and below the flame-throwing relievers with hideous walk rates. I’m scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel here.

Why am I writing about them, then? Well, because nobody else is, and my math suggests they’re at least worth keeping an eye on. So I decided to round them all up and put them all in an article that will generate an embarrassingly low number of page views. The sad reality is that most of these players will never amount to much. Just about the entire baseball industry has looked at them and said “org guy,” and the baseball industry is usually right about these things. But every so often, an org guy grinds his way to the majors, and the players listed below seem like decent bets to do so.

Below, you’ll find a series of tables. The tables consist of players whom Eric deemed to be unworthy of even a 40 FV grade, but were projected for at least 1.5 WAR heading into the season. I chose to include prospects who made Eric’s “other prospects of note” section, since Eric added many of those guys on KATOH’s recommendation. Note, finally, that while nearly a month of minor-league baseball has occurred, these are preseason projections that do not take into account any 2017 numbers.

Name Team KATOH
Jeremy Martinez  Cardinals 3.5
Tyler Heineman  Brewers 3.3
Andy Paz  Athletics 3.3
Oscar Hernandez  Diamondbacks 3.0
Taylor Davis  Cubs 2.6
Jin-De Jhang  Pirates 2.6
Chad Wallach  Reds 2.6
A.J. Jimenez  Rangers 2.4
John Hicks  Tigers 2.3
Ian Rice  Cubs 2.2
Jesse Jenner  Cardinals 2.2
Marcus Littlewood  Mariners 2.2
Paul Hoenecke  Dodgers 2.2
Ryan Miller  Padres 2.1
Jeremy Dowdy  Retired 2.1
Christian Correa  Astros 2.1
Jonah Heim  Rays 1.9
Jamie Ritchie  Astros 1.8
Yermin Mercedes  Orioles 1.7
Jeremy Lucas  Indians 1.7
Cam Gallagher  Royals 1.7
Grayson Greiner  Tigers 1.6
Gabriel Lino  Cardinals 1.5
Brett Sullivan  Rays 1.5
Eric Haase  Indians 1.5
Dan Jansen  Blue Jays 1.5
Jose Godoy  Cardinals 1.5
Seby Zavala  White Sox 1.5
Andrew Knizner  Cardinals 1.5


 First Basemen
Name Team KATOH
Nick Delmonico White Sox 4.4
Juremi Profar  Rangers 4.1
Mike Ford  Yankees 3.7
Erick Meza  Dodgers 3.1
Nellie Rodriguez  Indians 2.3
Joe Mccarthy  Rays 2.2
Nathaniel Lowe  Rays 1.8
Jose Osuna  Pirates 1.6
Kevin Cron  Diamondbacks 1.6


 Second Basemen
Name Team KATOH
Luis Arraez Twins 9.4
Max Moroff Pirates 6.4
Jose Antequera  Phillies 3.8
Sherman Johnson  Angels 3.0
Vidal Brujan  Rays 2.6
Tim Locastro  Dodgers 2.3
Thairo Estrada  Yankees 2.3
Micah Johnson  Braves 2.2
Carlos Sepulveda  Cubs 2.0
Jamie Westbrook  Diamondbacks 1.8
Noah Perio  Padres 1.8
Trey York  Brewers 1.7
Brandon Montgomery  Dodgers 1.6
Joe Wendle  Athletics 1.5


 Third Basemen
Name Team KATOH
Edwin Rios Dodgers 7.0
Renato Nunez  Athletics 4.2
Jantzen Witte  Red Sox 2.1
Mandy Alvarez  Yankees 1.7
Nelson Molina  Twins 1.5
Rob Segedin  Dodgers 1.5
Ryder Jones  Giants 1.5


Name Team KATOH
Tommy Edman  Cardinals 4.2
Jack Reinheimer  Diamondbacks 3.3
Ildemaro Vargas  Diamondbacks 3.2
Ruddy Giron  Padres 3.1
Pat Valaika  Rockies 2.9
Jose Gomez  Rockies 2.5
Nolan Fontana  Angels 2.5
Eric Stamets  Indians 2.4
Brendon Davis  Dodgers 2.3
Paxton De La Garza  Diamondbacks 2.3
Wilfredo Tovar  Cardinals 2.2
Jonathan Arauz  Astros 2.1
Mark Karaviotis  Diamondbacks 2.1
Abiatal Avelino  Yankees 2.1
Breyvic Valera  Cardinals 2.1
Taylor Motter  Mariners 2.0
Matt Williams  Angels 1.8
Yeyson Yrizarri  Rangers 1.7
Zack Short  Cubs 1.7
Jermaine Palacios  Twins 1.7
Michael Russell  Rays 1.6
Jake Cronenworth  Rays 1.5
Charles Leblanc  Rangers 1.5
Hoy-Jun Park  Yankees 1.5
Alex Mejia  Cardinals 1.5


 Left Fielders
Name Team KATOH
Kyle Wren  Brewers 4.2
Tony Renda  Reds 3.7
Andrew Calica  Indians 2.7
Randolph Gassaway  Orioles 2.3
Eduard Pinto  Rangers 2.3
Jake Cave  Yankees 2.2
Wynton Bernard  Giants 2.2
Dimas Ojeda  Mariners 2.2
Bryson Myles  Indians 2.0
Danry Vasquez  Free Agent 1.9
David Olmedo-Barrera  Rays 1.9
Tyler Hill  Red Sox 1.8
Luke Raley  Dodgers 1.8
Saige Jenco  Dodgers 1.8
O’Koyea Dickson  Dodgers 1.8
Trey Amburgey  Yankees 1.7
Bijan Rademacher  Cubs 1.6
Jabari Blash  Padres 1.6
Jared James  Braves 1.6


 Center Fielders
Name Team KATOH
Austin Slater Giants 5.7
Andrew Aplin Astros 4.3
John Andreoli  Cubs 4.2
Johnny Field  Rays 3.9
Michael Reed  Brewers 3.9
Jacob Hannemann  Cubs 2.9
Danny Woodrow  Tigers 2.8
Todd Glaesmann  Cubs 2.7
Johan Mieses  Dodgers 2.5
Wes Rogers  Rockies 2.4
Franchy Cordero  Padres 2.4
Nathan Lukes  Rays 2.2
Ian Miller  Mariners 2.1
Jared Hoying  Rangers 2.1
Lorenzo Cedrola  Red Sox 2.1
Jose Cardona  Rangers 2.0
Marcus Wilson  Diamondbacks 1.8
Mark Laird  Phillies 1.8
Cameron Perkins  Phillies 1.7
Connor Lien  Braves 1.6
Reymond Fuentes  Diamondbacks 1.6
Tito Polo  Yankees 1.5
Keith Curcio  Braves 1.5


 Right Fielders
Name Team KATOH
John Schuknecht Angels 4.7
Franmil Reyes  Padres 3.5
Jeff McVaney  Tigers 3.2
Cade Gotta  Rays 3.1
Mel Rojas  Braves 2.9
Mike Yastrzemski  Orioles 2.2
Connor Marabell  Indians 2.1
Drew Ferguson  Astros 2.0
Victor Reyes  Diamondbacks 2.0
Orlando Calixte  Giants 1.9
Lane Adams  Braves 1.9
Eric Filia  Mariners 1.8
Nick Martini  Cardinals 1.7
Myles Straw  Astros 1.6
Jon Kemmer  Astros 1.6
Dylan Davis  Giants 1.5
Jose Almonte  Rangers 1.5
Darien Tubbs  Dodgers 1.5


 Right-Handed Pitchers
Name Team KATOH
Kevin Gadea  Rays 3.2
Jordan Humphreys  Mets 2.9
Danny Barnes  Blue Jays 2.8
Rob Whalen  Mariners 2.7
Jackson Stephens  Reds 2.7
Matt Cooper  White Sox 2.4
Cristian Javier  Astros 2.4
Yosmer Solorzano  White Sox 2.4
Tyler Phillips  Rangers 2.4
Tim Peterson  Mets 2.3
Trevor Oaks  Dodgers 2.3
Emilio Pagan  Mariners 2.3
Ben Lively  Phillies 2.2
Walker Lockett  Padres 2.2
Chase De Jong  Mariners 2.1
Alec Mills  Cubs 2.1
Chris Comito  White Sox 2.1
DeMarcus Evans  Rangers 2.1
Jio Orozco  Yankees 2.0
Frank Duncan  Diamondbacks 2.0
Jhon Peluffo  Orioles 2.0
Jorge Alcala  Astros 1.9
Zack Littell  Yankees 1.9
Nabil Crismatt  Mets 1.9
Lucas Sims  Braves 1.9
Jordan Yamamoto  Brewers 1.8
Aaron Wilkerson  Brewers 1.8
Adrian Sampson  Mariners 1.8
Jon Perrin  Brewers 1.8
Andrew Jordan  Reds 1.8
Tyler Viza  Phillies 1.8
Tyler Wells  Twins 1.7
Aaron Slegers  Twins 1.7
Harol Gonzalez  Mets 1.7
Andrew Sopko  Dodgers 1.7
Kyle Crick  Giants 1.7
Adrian Houser  Brewers 1.7
Luke Leftwich  Phillies 1.7
Derian Gonzalez  Cardinals 1.7
Emilio Vargas  Diamondbacks 1.6
John Curtiss  Twins 1.6
Thaddius Lowry  White Sox 1.6
Nick Green  Yankees 1.5
Paul Blackburn  Athletics 1.5
Erling Moreno  Cubs 1.5
J.P. Feyereisen  Yankees 1.5
Humberto Mejia  Marlins 1.5


 Left-Handed Pitchers
Name Team KATOH
Matt Gage Giants 4.4
Cody Reed  Diamondbacks 3.8
Nick Fanti  Phillies 2.8
Tyler Watson  Nationals 2.7
Jose Suarez  Angels 2.2
Brandon Waddell  Pirates 2.2
Wennington Romero  Reds 2.1
Ismael Guillon  Reds 2.1
Angel Perdomo  Blue Jays 2.0
Jake Simon  Mets 1.9
Brad Wieck  Padres 1.9
Kyle McGrath  Padres 1.8
Caleb Ferguson  Dodgers 1.8
Andrew Barbosa  Brewers 1.8
James Reeves  Yankees 1.5
Sixto Torres  Mets 1.5

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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6 years ago

I’ll focus on the Giants prospects:

Ryder Jones had a good second half in AA and a very good AFL. Off to a decent start in AAA. Can’t really play 3B where he is listed, he’s being tried out in LF now. Interesting guy. Big lefty power, possible can hit 20 HR in the majors, just too much weak contact for him, doesn’t strike out much.

I can’t believe Austin Slater didn’t make Longenhagen’s list after a big 2016. He seems like a good platoon candidate in the majors, but playing LF, not CF as he is listed here. He absolutely destroys lefties. Stanford swing has sapped some of his power potential, but he hits the ball hard. Needs to elevate more, but bat path make not be conducive for that.

Dylan Davis is probably a 1B/DH, another guy with a lot of power. Giants are making an attempt at moving him to 3B, but early results are not good. He might carve out a career in the AL.

Kyle Crick has been moved into the bullpen, showing much better control, until yesterday. He might get a cup of coffee this year.

Matt Gage is somewhat interesting as a possible situational lefty. High 80s fastball, solid change, ok curveball.

Orlando Calixte has been playing all over the field this season in AAA, SS/CF/RF/2B, there is some defensive utility there with him. Has some pop too, on the 40-man, so he’ll likely be in the majors sometime this year.