KATOH Projects: Super Deep Sleeper Prospects by Chris Mitchell May 2, 2017 Over the winter, FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote the equivalent of a novel in the form of 30 organizational prospect lists. Each list included a writeup and scouting grades for every prospect receiving a FV grade of at least 40 — that is, the equivalent of a bench player or middle reliever. For each team, roughly 20-25 prospects (give or take) met this criteria. Of course, every organization features many more than just 20-25 minor leaguers. What about them? Using my KATOH projection system, I attempted to find the best of the rest. Just as I did last year, I’ve identified the players with the most promising statistical profiles who missed Eric’s 40 FV cutoff. I think this goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: these are non-prospects of the worst kind. They were ranked below the future utility players, below the future middle relievers, below the toolsy teenagers who were overmatched in Rookie ball, and below the flame-throwing relievers with hideous walk rates. I’m scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel here. Why am I writing about them, then? Well, because nobody else is, and my math suggests they’re at least worth keeping an eye on. So I decided to round them all up and put them all in an article that will generate an embarrassingly low number of page views. The sad reality is that most of these players will never amount to much. Just about the entire baseball industry has looked at them and said “org guy,” and the baseball industry is usually right about these things. But every so often, an org guy grinds his way to the majors, and the players listed below seem like decent bets to do so. Below, you’ll find a series of tables. The tables consist of players whom Eric deemed to be unworthy of even a 40 FV grade, but were projected for at least 1.5 WAR heading into the season. I chose to include prospects who made Eric’s “other prospects of note” section, since Eric added many of those guys on KATOH’s recommendation. Note, finally, that while nearly a month of minor-league baseball has occurred, these are preseason projections that do not take into account any 2017 numbers. Catchers Name Team KATOH Jeremy Martinez Cardinals 3.5 Tyler Heineman Brewers 3.3 Andy Paz Athletics 3.3 Oscar Hernandez Diamondbacks 3.0 Taylor Davis Cubs 2.6 Jin-De Jhang Pirates 2.6 Chad Wallach Reds 2.6 A.J. Jimenez Rangers 2.4 John Hicks Tigers 2.3 Ian Rice Cubs 2.2 Jesse Jenner Cardinals 2.2 Marcus Littlewood Mariners 2.2 Paul Hoenecke Dodgers 2.2 Ryan Miller Padres 2.1 Jeremy Dowdy Retired 2.1 Christian Correa Astros 2.1 Jonah Heim Rays 1.9 Jamie Ritchie Astros 1.8 Yermin Mercedes Orioles 1.7 Jeremy Lucas Indians 1.7 Cam Gallagher Royals 1.7 Grayson Greiner Tigers 1.6 Gabriel Lino Cardinals 1.5 Brett Sullivan Rays 1.5 Eric Haase Indians 1.5 Dan Jansen Blue Jays 1.5 Jose Godoy Cardinals 1.5 Seby Zavala White Sox 1.5 Andrew Knizner Cardinals 1.5 First Basemen Name Team KATOH Nick Delmonico White Sox 4.4 Juremi Profar Rangers 4.1 Mike Ford Yankees 3.7 Erick Meza Dodgers 3.1 Nellie Rodriguez Indians 2.3 Joe Mccarthy Rays 2.2 Nathaniel Lowe Rays 1.8 Jose Osuna Pirates 1.6 Kevin Cron Diamondbacks 1.6 Second Basemen Name Team KATOH Luis Arraez Twins 9.4 Max Moroff Pirates 6.4 Jose Antequera Phillies 3.8 Sherman Johnson Angels 3.0 Vidal Brujan Rays 2.6 Tim Locastro Dodgers 2.3 Thairo Estrada Yankees 2.3 Micah Johnson Braves 2.2 Carlos Sepulveda Cubs 2.0 Jamie Westbrook Diamondbacks 1.8 Noah Perio Padres 1.8 Trey York Brewers 1.7 Brandon Montgomery Dodgers 1.6 Joe Wendle Athletics 1.5 Third Basemen Name Team KATOH Edwin Rios Dodgers 7.0 Renato Nunez Athletics 4.2 Jantzen Witte Red Sox 2.1 Mandy Alvarez Yankees 1.7 Nelson Molina Twins 1.5 Rob Segedin Dodgers 1.5 Ryder Jones Giants 1.5 Shortstops Name Team KATOH Tommy Edman Cardinals 4.2 Jack Reinheimer Diamondbacks 3.3 Ildemaro Vargas Diamondbacks 3.2 Ruddy Giron Padres 3.1 Pat Valaika Rockies 2.9 Jose Gomez Rockies 2.5 Nolan Fontana Angels 2.5 Eric Stamets Indians 2.4 Brendon Davis Dodgers 2.3 Paxton De La Garza Diamondbacks 2.3 Wilfredo Tovar Cardinals 2.2 Jonathan Arauz Astros 2.1 Mark Karaviotis Diamondbacks 2.1 Abiatal Avelino Yankees 2.1 Breyvic Valera Cardinals 2.1 Taylor Motter Mariners 2.0 Matt Williams Angels 1.8 Yeyson Yrizarri Rangers 1.7 Zack Short Cubs 1.7 Jermaine Palacios Twins 1.7 Michael Russell Rays 1.6 Jake Cronenworth Rays 1.5 Charles Leblanc Rangers 1.5 Hoy-Jun Park Yankees 1.5 Alex Mejia Cardinals 1.5 Left Fielders Name Team KATOH Kyle Wren Brewers 4.2 Tony Renda Reds 3.7 Andrew Calica Indians 2.7 Randolph Gassaway Orioles 2.3 Eduard Pinto Rangers 2.3 Jake Cave Yankees 2.2 Wynton Bernard Giants 2.2 Dimas Ojeda Mariners 2.2 Bryson Myles Indians 2.0 Danry Vasquez Free Agent 1.9 David Olmedo-Barrera Rays 1.9 Tyler Hill Red Sox 1.8 Luke Raley Dodgers 1.8 Saige Jenco Dodgers 1.8 O’Koyea Dickson Dodgers 1.8 Trey Amburgey Yankees 1.7 Bijan Rademacher Cubs 1.6 Jabari Blash Padres 1.6 Jared James Braves 1.6 Center Fielders Name Team KATOH Austin Slater Giants 5.7 Andrew Aplin Astros 4.3 John Andreoli Cubs 4.2 Johnny Field Rays 3.9 Michael Reed Brewers 3.9 Jacob Hannemann Cubs 2.9 Danny Woodrow Tigers 2.8 Todd Glaesmann Cubs 2.7 Johan Mieses Dodgers 2.5 Wes Rogers Rockies 2.4 Franchy Cordero Padres 2.4 Nathan Lukes Rays 2.2 Ian Miller Mariners 2.1 Jared Hoying Rangers 2.1 Lorenzo Cedrola Red Sox 2.1 Jose Cardona Rangers 2.0 Marcus Wilson Diamondbacks 1.8 Mark Laird Phillies 1.8 Cameron Perkins Phillies 1.7 Connor Lien Braves 1.6 Reymond Fuentes Diamondbacks 1.6 Tito Polo Yankees 1.5 Keith Curcio Braves 1.5 Right Fielders Name Team KATOH John Schuknecht Angels 4.7 Franmil Reyes Padres 3.5 Jeff McVaney Tigers 3.2 Cade Gotta Rays 3.1 Mel Rojas Braves 2.9 Mike Yastrzemski Orioles 2.2 Connor Marabell Indians 2.1 Drew Ferguson Astros 2.0 Victor Reyes Diamondbacks 2.0 Orlando Calixte Giants 1.9 Lane Adams Braves 1.9 Eric Filia Mariners 1.8 Nick Martini Cardinals 1.7 Myles Straw Astros 1.6 Jon Kemmer Astros 1.6 Dylan Davis Giants 1.5 Jose Almonte Rangers 1.5 Darien Tubbs Dodgers 1.5 Right-Handed Pitchers Name Team KATOH Kevin Gadea Rays 3.2 Jordan Humphreys Mets 2.9 Danny Barnes Blue Jays 2.8 Rob Whalen Mariners 2.7 Jackson Stephens Reds 2.7 Matt Cooper White Sox 2.4 Cristian Javier Astros 2.4 Yosmer Solorzano White Sox 2.4 Tyler Phillips Rangers 2.4 Tim Peterson Mets 2.3 Trevor Oaks Dodgers 2.3 Emilio Pagan Mariners 2.3 Ben Lively Phillies 2.2 Walker Lockett Padres 2.2 Chase De Jong Mariners 2.1 Alec Mills Cubs 2.1 Chris Comito White Sox 2.1 DeMarcus Evans Rangers 2.1 Jio Orozco Yankees 2.0 Frank Duncan Diamondbacks 2.0 Jhon Peluffo Orioles 2.0 Jorge Alcala Astros 1.9 Zack Littell Yankees 1.9 Nabil Crismatt Mets 1.9 Lucas Sims Braves 1.9 Jordan Yamamoto Brewers 1.8 Aaron Wilkerson Brewers 1.8 Adrian Sampson Mariners 1.8 Jon Perrin Brewers 1.8 Andrew Jordan Reds 1.8 Tyler Viza Phillies 1.8 Tyler Wells Twins 1.7 Aaron Slegers Twins 1.7 Harol Gonzalez Mets 1.7 Andrew Sopko Dodgers 1.7 Kyle Crick Giants 1.7 Adrian Houser Brewers 1.7 Luke Leftwich Phillies 1.7 Derian Gonzalez Cardinals 1.7 Emilio Vargas Diamondbacks 1.6 John Curtiss Twins 1.6 Thaddius Lowry White Sox 1.6 Nick Green Yankees 1.5 Paul Blackburn Athletics 1.5 Erling Moreno Cubs 1.5 J.P. Feyereisen Yankees 1.5 Humberto Mejia Marlins 1.5 Left-Handed Pitchers Name Team KATOH Matt Gage Giants 4.4 Cody Reed Diamondbacks 3.8 Nick Fanti Phillies 2.8 Tyler Watson Nationals 2.7 Jose Suarez Angels 2.2 Brandon Waddell Pirates 2.2 Wennington Romero Reds 2.1 Ismael Guillon Reds 2.1 Angel Perdomo Blue Jays 2.0 Jake Simon Mets 1.9 Brad Wieck Padres 1.9 Kyle McGrath Padres 1.8 Caleb Ferguson Dodgers 1.8 Andrew Barbosa Brewers 1.8 James Reeves Yankees 1.5 Sixto Torres Mets 1.5