FanGraphs 2019 Staff Predictions

There were times this winter when it felt like the offseason would never end. But end it has, and on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to future public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year, we had the American League playoff picture pretty well pegged, with the exception of the A’s. Washington’s collapse? Not so much. The Rookies of the Year? Got ’em. Either league’s Cy Young winner? Nope! That’s ok, though. Baseball is best when it is energetic, even a touch frenzied.

Folks from FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, and The Hardball Times weighed in; here are the results.

The National League

The National League gets to have all the fun. Of course, some things are as you’d expect. The Dodgers are still anticipated to be a powerhouse. Only two of the 32 ballots cast exclude them from a postseason berth entirely, and they actually received one more vote to take their division than Cleveland did, despite their division opponents being projected for an average of 77.25 wins vs. Cleveland’s 72.5.

The Marlins look quite hopeless. The Giants don’t look a ton better. The Padres have not yet arrived.

But there are a lot of compelling races to be had. The Central and East each have four teams receiving at least one vote to win their division. Only four ballots mirror our current projected division winners precisely (the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals). Despite having a worse projected win total than either the Cubs (87) or Cardinals (85), our staff thinks the Brewers will repeat as Central champs, though our predictions suggest that we’re in for a tight race again, with the top spot separated by just two votes. And the Phillies, who last year received just eight total votes, none of which were for the division win, check in with 24 this year, the second-most in the NL. I guess a Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto will do that for you.

One team the staff is not impressed with, despite their offseason additions? The Mets, who at 39.5%, have the sixth highest playoff odds in the NL, but who received just four playoff votes, two of which are for the second Wild Card. And the poor Diamondbacks, who received 19 votes last year, got none this year. That’s particularly rough considering only four teams (Arizona, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Miami) were shut out of postseason voting entirely.

The American League

Where the National League lends itself to compelling drama, the American League, much as it was last year, is a wasteland of the assumed outcome. Only one brave soul picked against Houston at the top of the AL West, and even that brave soul still had them making the playoffs through the second Wild Card. 19 of the 32 ballots cast have the Astros, Indians, and Yankees as their division winners. Five more keep Houston and Cleveland, only to swap in Boston.

Cleveland and New York each enjoy a touch less consensus than Houston does in their respective division races, though for different reasons. Where the Yankees’ are acknowledged to be a very good team (projected to be the best in baseball with 97 wins) that happens to play in a very tough division, Cleveland is a pretty good team that refused to expend the resources to become a great one. Their division is weak, but likely won’t be historically so again, and with injuries already cropping up, the seven games separating the Indians from the Twins don’t feel like they come with as much daylight as they once did.

If there is intrigue to be had, it will be found in the East, where the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all seen as playoff teams, making the AL East the only division in baseball to boast three teams that we think will play in October. A Red Sox vs. Rays Wild Card game could be fun, a contest between one team with no bullpen to speak of, and another who has built their entire plane out of relievers.

Individual Awards

We couldn’t quite make up our minds on NL MVP. I picked Anthony Rendon personally, because when is that guy going to finally get his due, but the field is a mix of established stars, young luminaries, and a couple of veterans returning from injury, not to mention the reigning NL MVP.

Cy Young feels more certain, with 2018 first place finisher Jacob deGrom one of two Mets, third place finisher Aaron Nola making a showing, and second place finisher Max Scherzer leading the way. It is also a tally marked by an absence. This is the first year I could find since 2012 (the internet fails me after that) in which Clayton Kershaw did not receive a Cy Young vote from our staff.

Victor Robles was Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel’s fifth overall prospect on this year’s Top 100, but he is first in voters’ hearts here.

The size and composition of the voting body isn’t exactly the same, but after Mookie Betts won the award last year, and Alex Bregman put up what would have been an MVP season in many other years, Mike Trout has still somehow increased his share of the vote from last year to this year (59.3% vs. 55%). And why not? Barring injury or a sudden desire to become a cobbler, he’s a hard guy to pick against.

Sale led last year’s voting, and the year before that’s voting. He might well lead next year’s voting, too. At some point, he will stop leading our staff voting, but with the second-best starting pitcher projection (5.8 WAR) and the best among AL starters (deGrom edges him slightly at 5.9 WAR), I can’t fault our staff for their selection, nor for the names that follow him.

Vlad Jr.’s recovery from an oblique strain is reportedly proceeding apace, but it does feel rather rude of baseball to hurry itself along to the point of it finally being Opening Day, only to deny us the top prospect in the game, who Eric and Kiley described by saying, “He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.” Then again, based on the fact that he was ticketed for Buffalo to work out defensive woes that were set to resolve in about 15 days, I suppose we were due to wait regardless.

That’s the whole shebang. As we always do, we’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up. We look forward to writing about all of the ways in which we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone.