FanGraphs 2022 Day One Draft Chat by Eric Longenhagen July 17, 2022 6:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from sunny LA and the MLB Draft. Here I am to chat. It’s quite full of people here, I’m sitting between the two sets. I won’t be tweeting out picks before they happen this year, instead I’ll be Woj’ing here. May presence may be variable as Meg and I have a bunch of site-related tech stuff to juggle with regard to adding picks to The Board. 7:00 Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re here I’m guessing you know how to navigate over to The Board to see rankings and reports. 7:02 Eric A Longenhagen: let’s get to some questions before festivities start. If other folks are breaking picks on Twitter and you guys feel like posting it in the chat queue, that’d be cool and would mean I get to be in this space more consistently. I’m off there for reasons I’m sure are obvious to most of you. 7:02 Oddball Herrera: Starting to hear some “Twins should go with Rocker so he can whiz to the major league bullpen”. Is that realistic at all or just click bait? 7:02 Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t heard that at all, think they’re in position to scoop someone who falls unexpectedly or cut with a college bat they like 7:02 Ethan: Any small college guys you like? 7:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Depends what you think of “small”, I love Zach Neto from Campbell, and Tyler Cleveland from Central Arkansas, an athletic side-armer who only sits in the mid-80s but has plus command and two good secondary pitches 7:04 Pinstripe Perry: Thanks so much for all the content this spring. Know it couldn’t have been easy being the last man standing on the prospect side for the time being. Any notable takeaways from the futures game that you’ve heard or seen? 7:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure anyone moved the needle for me. Eury Perez was the individual standout for me but I feel like he’s ranked appropriately. American League infield/outfield was lethargic, Francisco ALvarez and Jhonkensy Noel had ridiculous BPs 7:05 David: Eric, any buzz on any Cubs targets after the 1st round? 7:05 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have anything more than what was in the mock draft this morning 7:05 RAndoM: Which player(s) do you think will be the toughest to sign? 7:07 Eric A Longenhagen: There are some players who are priced in the 2.5-3mil range who probably won’t get that, some of the Vandy and LSU commits like Sal Stewart, Ryan Clifford, Gavin Guidry 7:07 Matt: Besides Rocker, you mentioned in the mock that you mostly heard HS Pitchers with the Angels at 13– but do you buy that they’d go that route after drafting 18/20 college pitchers last year? 7:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure if I think last year was a sign of things to come, an indication of their new style or just a way to get an influx of pitching in the system one time, to try to build depth behind the big league roster as fast as possible while Shohei and Trout are still there 7:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Have one source putting BAL with Jackson Holliday…not a thing I’d tweet without multiple sources but that’s where I’m at 7:12 Eric A Longenhagen: LOL now it’s officially all over the place here 7:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Had a front office person tell me “They don’t know who it is yet: 7:12 zurzles: I really hope you got some time off scheduled soon, or at least a good nap. 7:13 Eric A Longenhagen: maybe after the deadline 7:13 Guest: How far does Rocker fall? 7:13 Eric A Longenhagen: hearing him mid rd 1, LAA, SD 7:13 Eric A Longenhagen: but that might depend on Justin Crawford 7:13 Eric A Longenhagen: he might actually be SD target 7:14 Eric A Longenhagen: and we’re off 7:16 zurzles: Do you know any more about 1.1 than you did 24 hours ago? 7:16 Eric A Longenhagen: nope, “we’re gonna find out on TV” just before 7:16 Mike: I would like to hear outlandish optimism about Kevin Parada. Do you have any of that? Is he our future mvp in DC? 7:17 Eric A Longenhagen: High-confidence bat, dont think he can catch, if I’m wrong he’s a star 7:17 Eric A Longenhagen: if I’m right he’s still a solid everyday guy, I think 7:17 JT: So much of the Collier hype stems from youth / performance in JUCO being model friendly, but many public scouting evals describe swing issues. For a non-up-the-middle prospect that’s clearly bat first, it just seems concerning to hear such consistent swing critiques. Thoughts? 7:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. I like him, agree the swing isn’t dialed in, but it’s also impressive what he did from a performance standpoint with a weird swing. That’s why it’s important to have your dev group in the room, to gauge their comfort with a guy you know you wanna change 7:18 sadtrombone: Welcome! I love the draft prospect reports. Very thorough, strong analysis. Worth the wait. 7:18 Eric A Longenhagen: thank you 7:18 J: How do Ivan Melendez and Sonny D compare to Niko Kavadas from last year? 7:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Melendez’s build is built to last, but the RHH vs LHH thing is important 7:19 Mordecai and Rigby: Well, there goes Jackson Holliday at 1-1 to Bal. Any early take/opinion on his younger brother Ethan Holliday? I’ve heard he is even better than his big bro. 7:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Saw them take BP back to back this spring, and Ethan isn’t there yet but his frame is WAY more projectable than Jackson, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hollidays Upton 7:21 Air Yordan: Does the possibility of robo umps this decade increase Parada’s value at all? 7:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps, not like he has an impact arm tho 7:21 sadtrombone: Thoughts on Roman Anthony, Gavin Turley, and Henry Bolte? I’m in on Anthony, think Bolte might be worth the risk, and am scared of Turley never hitting. 7:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Relatively fearful of all three, hige tools on all of them tho 7:21 Ohtani: Are you making predictions? 7:21 Eric A Longenhagen: I am texting with people in draft rooms to see who is going 7:22 Eric A Longenhagen: they’re not guesses, it’s reporting 7:22 Al Avila: how are you feeling about Jobe over Marcelo Mayer one year later? 7:22 Eric A Longenhagen: bad, but they did an honorable thing 7:22 Mike: Levi Weaver @ThreeTwoEephus Source tells me Druw Jones will be selected #2, to the surprise of nobody. 17 Jul 2022 7:22 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Texas’ Athletic beat writer 7:23 Eric A Longenhagen: If true (bet it is) Texas’ mix has been described as Parada and Green 7:25 Al Avila’s Friend Chris, a Disinterested Party: honor is very important, right, Eric? 7:25 Eric A Longenhagen: imo, yes 7:27 Eric A Longenhagen: i have multiple people hearing Kumar Rocker will go 3 7:27 Eric A Longenhagen: 3 people now 7:27 Eric A Longenhagen: four people now 7:27 Eric A Longenhagen: holy crap 7:28 jmo: how much of a discount would that be 7:28 Eric A Longenhagen: i have no idea 7:29 Eric A Longenhagen: feel like it’s gotta be under slot because they don’t pick again until late 7:29 Eric A Longenhagen: due to Semien/Seager, etc. 7:29 Mike: The rocker-leiter 1-2 punch? Rangers 2024 champions? 7:30 Dan: Where does this rank among draft day surprises for you? 7:30 Eric A Longenhagen: at the very top 7:30 RyanW: Love me some chaos 7:30 Kvn: How shocking is this re rocker? Seems extremely shocking. 7:30 Kvn: Team draft entropy 7:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Pittsburgh’s taking Termarr 7:31 DG: Lesko to Guardians in terms of % for you? 7:32 LOVE GALLO: rangers don’t even have extra picks 7:32 Eric A Longenhagen: right, evidence this is under slit 7:32 eric: do you even have a past pick to comp this to in terms of shock value re: kumar? 7:32 Eric A Longenhagen: not in my professional lifetime, who’s the guy the Cubs took in the first like 15 years ago? 7:33 Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, I am pumped. That 2025 outfield is going to be nuts! 7:33 Eric A Longenhagen: I know what backfield I’ll be at most the rest of the summer 7:33 andrew: collier falling to 10 odds? 7:33 Eric A Longenhagen: hmm le’s think. So termarr goes here, I’d guess Parada 5, not sure what Miami would do, working on all that… 7:33 jmo: hayden simpson? 7:33 Eric A Longenhagen: yup, that’s the off-the-board Cubs guy from last generation 7:35 Mike: Is the MLB Draft tab on THE BOARD messed up or is my computer just junk? Was populating earlier but just went to check again since the draft started and players are not showing 7:35 Eric A Longenhagen: shit, give us a sec 7:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Have one person saying Elijah Green to WSH 7:37 Eric A Longenhagen: couple folks on Green here now 7:37 Dave: Does Termarr cut a deal and put Pirates into the pole position for slot space? 7:37 Eric A Longenhagen: doubt it 7:39 Brad: When picking Johnson, do the Pirates already know what it will cost to sign him? 7:39 Eric A Longenhagen: most likely, yes 7:40 Tyler: Can I just say I love Termarr Johnson? That interview was an absolute home run 7:40 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a great kid 7:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Draft Board should be fixed now (with picks being added) 7:40 Chaim: Would you say Kumar going 3 is more shocking than Nick Yorke (who wasn’t on anyone’s top 100 list) going 17 to the Red Sox in the 2020 draft? 7:41 Eric A Longenhagen: yeah dude, because of Rocker’s stardom 7:41 Eitan Davidson: Based on how slow this going its gonna be a long night 7:43 LOVE GALLO: as a rangers fan, cynically the way i see the kumar pick is that the team is drafting for need and is going to rush him to the big leagues. kinda hate that mentality if that’s true 7:43 Eric A Longenhagen: i suppose it’s possible, you gotta wait to see what they do with their next pick 7:43 Jobe: Did you see anything that led you to move Johnson’s hit tool down to 60? 7:44 Eric A Longenhagen: approach is a little expansive 7:44 Larry: Who’s the Dbacks top prospect now- Carroll, Jones, or Lawlar? What an incredible top three. 7:44 Eric A Longenhagen: The Draft Board has where the 50 FV and above guys would fall on the 100 (within a couple spots) 7:44 Eric A Longenhagen: 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs 7:45 Jones: Green the guy? 7:45 Eric A Longenhagen: yep, said so a while ago 7:45 Jeb: Thank you for doing this; I’m guessing you’re running on fumes and turnover is rough, even when you’re happy for the people that are leaving. I always look forward to your content and will continue to subscribe to fangraphs for as long as you write. 7:46 Eric A Longenhagen: For the first time in my life I am feeling it in my physical body, probably just because I’m getting older, and I have to change some stuff I think 7:46 Kvn: This seems like the most talent heavy draft in quite some time at the top. Do you agree and if so where does it rank among the drafts you’ve covered? 7:47 Eric A Longenhagen: I do, I think early on during my tenure (if you look back at past draft lists) i was too aggressive with FV’ing some guys and on paper it may not look that way if you’re just reading the site, but I love the hitters in this draft 7:48 Joe: Love the draft and all star events combo. This is awesome. Way to go MLB. 7:49 Eric A Longenhagen: industry folks aren’t on board because of the overlap with scouting for 2023, and so close to deadline, etc. 7:49 Eric A Longenhagen: I have one person saying Jacob Berry here 7:49 Eric A Longenhagen: to Miami 7:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Confirmed Jacob Berry 7:50 Benjamin: With cubs collier, think twins take lee or parada? 7:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Damn yo, can’t believe they’re both still around 7:51 Michael Scott: Can you explain to me the rocker “surprise” like I’m 5? 7:52 Eric A Longenhagen: A guy whose medical was whacked in a high-profile mishap, whose arm slot dropped from north/south to nearly sidearm, just went 3rd out of nowhere with no pre-draft smoke 7:53 Eric A Longenhagen: have horton Cubs 7:53 Chrishanel: Is MLB Network doing major work on the audio mix or are people inexplicably not booing Manfred every time he comes to the podium? 7:53 Eric A Longenhagen: The folks inside the enclosure here are just very happy to be here and having a great time 7:53 Austin63867: Gonna be a good opportunity for the Cubs here 7:55 Guest: Thoughts on where Neto might land given the shake-ups so far now? 7:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure, thought Cubs were a good fit. looking at the board… 7:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Tigers would be a great fit 7:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies were on college bats 7:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Have Brooks Lee to the Twins here 7:58 Ben: Very excited about what’s still on the board for them. 7:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Where in that area where, if your team is picking in the next little bit, you should be pumped. 7:59 Kevbot034: Jacob Berry position less already, by chance? 7:59 Eric A Longenhagen: You guys know me, I’m a tough screw. He’s a DH to me. 7:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Rakes, though. 7:59 Eitan Davidson: Brooks lee is one of my favorites in this draft incredible hit tool and pitch recognition surprised 8:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Medical concerns dating all the way back to high school 8:02 Philip: Where is collier’s landing spot? 8:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Folks in draft rooms texting me asking the same thing. Can someone try to overslot him later and scare teams away? He might be this year’s Watson 8:02 Guest: how did Horton, who had ~30 good innings in his entire college career, end up going this high ? 8:03 Eric A Longenhagen: His shit is great and his arm is fresh. He was a dude in HS, industry track record is longer than this spring. I’m in on him, though sounds like some clubs didn’t like his medical. 8:03 Teddy: Why isn’t Ivan Melendez a first rounder in your opinion? 8:04 Eric A Longenhagen: 1B only, skepticism regarding improvement in K rate as he was in essence repeating the level 8:04 Kevin Goldstein Stan: What is today’s draft beverage, Eric? 8:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Water with label removed at Draft 8:05 Eric A Longenhagen: thanks for reminding me i need to have some 8:06 Eric A Longenhagen: hearing Gavin Cross to Royals and then Gabe Hughes to Rockies, just one source on both right now 8:07 Eric A Longenhagen: looks like Cross to KC is right 8:08 Mac: Is their data on what, say, an average 45FV high school pitcher would request a team sign him for in the draft, or is there too much personal circumstances related variability? 8:08 Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, I think. 8:08 Eric A Longenhagen: typically in the 3 mil area 8:08 David f: Any chance the mets draft Lesko at 11? 8:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Might be too much other good stuff around to take an injured prep, but we’re off the rez now folks so who knows? 8:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Getting more Gabe Hughes to Rockies 8:10 Johndarc: What’s the bathroom situation like at Draft HQ? 8:10 Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t gone yet 8:10 Druw Jones: Do I deserve to be the highest paid player drafted this year? 8:10 Eric A Longenhagen: yerp 8:10 Aaron: Label removed for legal reasons or because you’re too big-time to give out free sponsorships? 😛 8:11 Eric A Longenhagen: I think the folks running the draft removed them so it doesn’t say Dasani on TV 8:11 Austin63867: Feel Hughes is a good pitcher but not one I had at the top 15. What do they like of him? 8:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Colorado loves their sinker guys 8:11 Cronkite: Parada and Susac to Mets? Would that be stupid? 8:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Too rich for Susac. Chase rates are bad 8:11 Eitan Davidson: Do you think Brandon Barriera will drop because of his height 8:12 Eric A Longenhagen: There are folks who see him as lacking physicality, but some of his biometric data is elite and he might be able to withstand the innings load anyway 8:13 Eric A Longenhagen: check Kiley’s Twitter, I think he posted some stuff from an AI company that evaluates deliveries 8:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Have multiple sources saying Parada for Mets 8:16 Jeff G: Who have you heard linked to the Cardinals? 8:16 Eric A Longenhagen: college outfield rumors, Beavers, DeLauter 8:16 Eric A Longenhagen: but not that far down the board here as far as actually knowing 8:18 Eric A Longenhagen: multiple sources have Tigers taking Texas Tech 2B Josh Jung 8:18 Guest: Wow Collier is sliding. 8:18 Brad: Wound COL pick Hughes to cut a deal to save money for later picks? 8:18 Eric A Longenhagen: It would make a ton of sense because they have so many picks, but i don’t have specific intel on the amount 8:18 Mac: Run into any former FanGraphs writers? 8:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Petriello 8:19 Phil: Does that mean you’re visible on TV? Suddenly I realize I am not sure what you look like. 8:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe sometimes but I’m either looking at this chat, my phone, or the guts of The Board to update it with the picks 8:20 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m the hot one 8:21 Jose Fanseco: The Board Draft coverage stuck at pick 5 8:21 Eric A Longenhagen: i’m seeing everyone 8:21 Sox Fan: Does MLB ultimately allow trading of all draft picks like with other sports? 8:22 Eric A Longenhagen: i hope so (mostly, that’d be chaos) but i thikn it’s good for the sport if the Dodgers can trade like 8 prospects to trade for for Druw 8:22 Austin63867: Feel bad Eric because whenever you post a pick people are tweeting like “hearing Parada to the Mets” for likes which socks 8:22 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna fake a couple to see who the rats are 8:23 Jim S: Have you heard anyone connected to the White Sox? 8:23 Eric A Longenhagen: not yet 8:25 Angry?: Picking Berry over Collier and Parada, did the Marlins fumble this 8:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, if they could have traded down then fine but they can’t. Everyone close to the same in this area, you can argue for this or that guy pretty easily 8:26 Jeff G: How far does Collier slide now? 8:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Have had one person tell me they think he’ll go to school now 8:27 Austin63867: Just wanna say great job here, Eric. Getting the info here before Twitter which keeps the worry of spoiling for some others. Of course, a few are using that to make themselves seem like the ones breaking it but whatever. 8:28 Eric A Longenhagen: lol, i figured that would happen. Gott have their garmonbozia 8:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Have Angels on Neto next 8:30 D back fan: Hey Eric, lots of FAngraphs folks left for job with orgs. When you going to go work for the D Backs? 8:30 Eric A Longenhagen: I really look up to Jason and don’t think he needs my help. I know things have been rough for them but I think they’re going to slay the dragon eventually 8:32 Jeff: The one who says “I’m the hot one” often is not quite. 8:32 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m rich off OnlyFans 8:33 DW: How much would a #1 pick be worth if it were able to be traded? 8:34 Eric A Longenhagen: Wow, I’ve never considered that. Probably depends on the year. 8:34 Eric A Longenhagen: hold on, working mets pick… 8:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Looks like Jett Williams to Mets 8:37 Uhh: Who could the rangers target in the 4th now ? 8:37 Eric A Longenhagen: has Kiley or anyone reported the Rocker bonus? Guessing they’ll have about $2.5 to spend there. Pretty good HS’er for that 8:38 Derek: is 8 Top 100-level guys in a single draft significantly higher than usual? 8:38 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m typically in the 6-8 range 8:38 Justin: “Damn Eric’s killing it” – Baseball Gods 8:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Honestly, it’s way more fun to do in here than on Twitter 8:39 svan: what is ‘school’ for collier here? back to chipola? or does he go into the transfer portal or w/e? 8:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Louisville 8:39 MJA: Reds have a comp pick as well as 18, possible they can offer Collier enough over slot to skip school? 8:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm, that’s interesting 8:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Reds amateur department is thick in Florida, they assess sign ability down there like no other 8:40 JJ: Any buzz on the Padres? Lesko? Jett? Crawford? 8:40 Eric A Longenhagen: working on it 8:41 Ben Schneider: Hi Eric, I really appreciate your work. So much of what I know about prospects and farm systems comes from you and FanGraphs 8:41 Eric A Longenhagen: thanks dude 8:42 Phil: Huh, apparently there’s a Cam Collier who’s an outfilelder at USF. He must be having a weird day. 8:42 Kevin Goldstein Stan: What is the human fascination with comps? 8:42 Eric A Longenhagen: it’s viewer-friendly 8:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing the Padres will take Dylan Lesko here 8:43 RAndoM: Who’s the highest rated player you have going to school? 8:43 Eric A Longenhagen: I would have guessed the Gavins (killen and guidry) but might be Collier now 8:44 Brian: OnlyFan(graph)s 8:44 Eric A Longenhagen: lol 8:44 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m telling Appelman to TM that 8:44 Joe: Is Dave Cameron still with the Padres? 8:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, pretty sure it’s public he’s done stuff with Seattle 8:46 Pinstripe Perry: Passan reported Rocker is a save of $2M 8:46 Eric A Longenhagen: There you go that’s one extra good high schooler 8:46 Cronkite: Chances the Rangers lined up a deal with Rocker within the past week? 99.9999%? 8:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Boras left the Futures Game with a group of guys in B polos and I wondered why. Who knows, could be Soto drama too 8:48 Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer: But I hate owls 8:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Take it up with Meg, she’s out of Bryn Mawr 8:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing DeLauter to Cleveland 8:49 Druw Jones: Jon Heyman @JonHeyman Word is, Druw Jones, No. 2 overall pick, will be receiving over $8M from D-Backs. 18 Jul 2022 8:50 Cam Collier: Am I going to Louisville? 8:50 Eric A Longenhagen: We’re talking about that in press row and he’d have to be there for two more years. not ideal 8:51 John: What’s a b polo or is something going over my head? 8:51 Eric A Longenhagen: with the Boras logo 8:53 Elbo: All prospect families have living rooms larger than my home. 8:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Baseball is expensive, it selects for a certain type of family who can afford to do all the travel ball, pay for new spikes and wood bats every so often. 8:55 Billy G: Braves trying to get Collier down to them? 8:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Think Crawford then Collier 8:58 JailedJoe: Collier go Cincy? 8:58 Eric A Longenhagen: yep 8:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing Collier will get about 5 mil from Reds 8:59 Max Y: when do you think we’ll see a run of the many injured college arms? 9:00 Eric A Longenhagen: good question, Probably mid 2nd round when teams who think they have some leash feel like trying for more upside than they’d typically have access to in that area 9:00 grover: Who is Oakland looking at? 9:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing Daniel Susac from a lot of places now 9:01 sadtrombone: At this rate, is Brock Porter going to school? He would be sophomore eligible. After the Reds we’re going to be looking at a lot of teams who don’t like HS arms… 9:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Think Rockies in comp round might be a fit, those rumors might be true, just in comp rather than 10 9:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Reminder, The Board is here: 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs 9:03 andrew: floor/ceiling for Eric brown? 9:07 BaboBilgins: Im kinda late and havent really paid attention to this draft… Who are the highest ceiling power hitters that have been taken so far? 9:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Youre gonna love this: 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs 9:07 Eric A Longenhagen: you can sort the board to see the power grades 9:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Have a couple sources saying prep righty Owen Murphy to Braves 9:10 Guest: Any noise on Peyton Graham? 9:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Actually was told today his makeup is terrible and I have him too high. Love the tools, hope he matures if it’s true 9:12 Ron: Who are the Mariners on? Any idea? 9:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Think it’ll be Cole Young, HS shortstop from Pittsburgh, but not confirmed yet 9:13 Billy G: Have you played Vampire Survivors? 9:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I’ve barely had time to play MTG since Kamigawa came out 9:14 Eric A Longenhagen: only drafted Chromatic Cube once 9:14 Guest: roughly what time would you say round 2 starts? 9:14 Eric A Longenhagen: idk what time is it right now? 9:14 D back fan: Any thought on current Kahlil Watson drama? Is this like when Yoan Lopez went MIA years ago? 9:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah man, it sounds not great, lots of scouts at Futures Game volunteering to say they’re worried about him 9:15 Chris: Who is Atlanta taking? 9:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Owen Murphy, then Cole Young to Seattle 9:17 Mike: are there any good examples of teams saying “terrible makeup” for a talented guy and it ending up being a steal? Asking in case a team i like gets Graham 9:18 Eric A Longenhagen: For sure, in all sports. Sometimes bad makeup is just immaturity. 9:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Calais Campbell the all time example for me 9:18 miller: why aren’t you on twitter anymore? appreciate all of your work. 9:18 Eric A Longenhagen: it’s tearing at our social fabric? 9:19 Eric A Longenhagen: and the dopamine isn’t worth participating in that 9:20 sadtrombone: With Barriera falling this far, are we looking at the Cards? He checks a lot of their boxes and he’d be good value. 9:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Would guess his softest landing is Baltimore, totally a guess 9:21 Eaton: I think you guys missed Chase DeLauter at 16 on The Board. 9:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Updated, gracias (might take a minute to port to site) 9:22 ACE: Which team is the most tight-lipped when it comes to leaking info? 9:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Baltimore 9:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Have multiple sources saying Cardinals will take Cooper Hjerpe 9:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Then I have multiple sources saying Brandon Barriera to Toronto 9:25 Guest: So, your board has Jett Williams listed as a CF- I’m assuming that’s because you think he ultimately gets moved off SS. Do the Mets at least try him out in the IF? 9:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and yes 9:25 MikeD: What team, if any, is the most open? 9:26 Eric A Longenhagen: none are especially open about what they’re thinking, some open about what they’ve heard regarding other teams 9:26 Dustin: It feels like there’s more emphasis on players with parents who are pro athletes 9:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Right, you have the genetic part of it and often the $ component too 9:27 Eric A Longenhagen: so they have access to facilities, travel, etc. 9:28 Rockies: I have always felt that the Rockies should focus on taking hitters, which they have proven they can develop, vs pitchers which have proven much more difficult for them to develop. Isn’t their best way forward to flip surplus hitting, or sell high on hitters benefiting from Coors for more developed arms (i.e. Corey Dickerson for German Marquez)? 9:29 Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s reasonable but it’s much more sustainable to apply dev science to pitching, which COL is way behind in doing 9:29 Talking Baseball: Is Jett the Met a terrible pick for the Mets or is it just me? 9:29 Eric A Longenhagen: I love him 9:29 Eric A Longenhagen: have had people who think he’d go top 5 if he weren’t so short 9:29 Eric A Longenhagen: his swing is athletic af for such a wee guy 9:29 Eric A Longenhagen: and he’s added huge strength since last summer 9:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Barriera likely way over slot here to TOR btw 9:33 Guest: Hear anything on the Sox pick? 9:33 Eric A Longenhagen: Actually struggling with this one, have one soft Mikey Romero rumor I’m trying to run it down 9:34 Eric A Longenhagen: Now hearing Drew Gilbert, again kinda soft 9:34 Eric A Longenhagen: Now have Mikey Romero from a couple places 9:35 Taylor: What you just said about Jett reminds me a lot of Corbin Carroll coming out of the draft. Short, strong, athletic, might go higher if taller. 9:35 Safaginia: Very Bloom kinda move 9:35 Eric A Longenhagen: agreed 9:35 Wire Fan: Do you like Barriera’s finish to his delivery? 9:36 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t love his fastball feel but think he’s athletic enough that his leg lock is okay 9:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Getting more confirmation on Romero 9:36 Eric A Longenhagen: to Boston 9:37 Dan: How do rumors of pending picks even work? Do they all start with a leak in the draft room or are there actually signs you can look for? 9:37 Eric A Longenhagen: I have tarot cards 9:38 ATC: Who do the Yankees get 9:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Actually have some Spencer Jones talk there 9:39 Travis: Keith Law hates the Owen Murphy pick. You agree? 9:39 Eric A Longenhagen: no 9:39 Phil: I’ve been using a Ouija board but it just keeps talking about how great Mel Ott is. 9:39 Eric A Longenhagen: lol 9:39 Marlins Fan: When can we buy replica Longenhagen tarot cards as merch 9:39 Eric A Longenhagen: “The Fool” and it’s just Carson in a jester outfit 9:40 Old prospector: Where would Jackson Chourio be drafted if eligible? 9:41 Eric A Longenhagen: great question and probably worth thinking about when you’re trying to triangulate his FV. probably top 10 9:42 Guest: Do you think Toman to the White Sox? 9:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Actually hearing Noah Schultz but not resounding 9:43 Guest: what is your opinion of the cole young pick? 9:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Like him. high floor as utility guy, if he ends up with a 60 bat he’s a good everyday guy. slick glove 9:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Just had a scout who’s in chat tell me Chourio goes 1-1 9:45 Eric A Longenhagen: guy has a 72% in-zone contact rate, which is kinda scary, other tools are huge 9:46 hi: anything on milwaukee? 9:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing Nevada HS lefty Robby Snelling 9:46 Braves fan: Are you surprised Gilbert is still on the board? 9:47 Wenger: Has Cade Horton SP1, SP2 ceiling? 9:48 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s rich for me just because I tend not to think anyone will do that, except for Espino, Grayson, Eury 9:50 Eric A Longenhagen: JK The Brewers are taking Eric Brown from Coastal Carolina 9:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Was fun to see who’s stealing tho 9:50 Cronkite: Why is Porter still on the board? 9:51 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m guessing he has big money waiting in the comp 9:51 No Beaver sighting?: What happened to Dylan Beaver? Maybe a comp than? 9:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Hit tool risk 9:51 Eric A Longenhagen: swing is weird, hole up and away 9:51 Eric A Longenhagen: physical freak though 9:51 Yankees fan: what is your opinion of the spencer jones pick? 9:51 Eric A Longenhagen: I like it, has huge upside 9:53 Eric A Longenhagen: I have Houston on Tennessee CF Drew Gilbert 9:53 Farhandrew Zaidman: Brown has almost a Justin Turner type load and kick 9:53 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s super funky but I love it, he’s an incredible athlete 9:53 Dave: Kiley is soooooo pale. 9:54 Eric A Longenhagen: lol, it’s because he didn’t get to see most of futures game and bake like the rest of us 9:56 Ray: Any Rays rumors? 9:56 Eric A Longenhagen: I actually have nothing 9:57 D back fan: 111 in Phoenix today Eric, you missing it here? 9:58 Eric A Longenhagen: hoping to have some of those 103-107 days when I get back 9:58 Stevil: So, where does Michael Conforto land? kidding 9:58 Eric A Longenhagen: oooh, actually that’s a great question. 9:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Who has a need? 9:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt TB would do it even though they’re so hurt and could use him 9:58 Dave: This has moved fairly fast with the short clock. Do you think if NFL had a clock this fast Aaron Rodgers would have been just ok without that chip on his shoulder? 9:59 Eric A Longenhagen: haaaa, I bet he’d still have been pissed 9:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing Brock Porter to Rays but it’s soft 9:59 Eric A Longenhagen: wow, weird 9:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Xavier Isaac is the first player not on The Board to be picked 10:00 Guest: i have not heard of this guy 10:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Huge lefty-hitting first baseman, maxed out body, all fields approach, they must really have confidence in his bat 10:02 Guest: Xavier Isaac has to mean over slot at 65/70/71… right? 10:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Given that they went out of their way to get a comp pick, I think so 10:03 Dave: Not on The Board because of Florida commit, or because he didn’t grade out well enough? 10:04 Eric A Longenhagen: the latter, he might be an add to the Rays list even though he’s not on the draft board, but as a 35+ 10:04 J Hench: 6’4” 240 out of HS? My goodness 10:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s a big dude 10:05 Romorr: Would you slot Holiday over Henderson in Baltimores system? See both at 55 FV, and very close in the rankings. 10:05 Eric A Longenhagen: no 10:06 Ben Schneider: MLB Pipeline has Isaac at 113, I think Kiley said he ranked Isaac in the 90’s 10:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay I’m gonna stop Woj’ing now but will keep chatting for a bit 10:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Let me get X on the Board real quick so I have something up there 10:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay so the Thompson pick is a little surprising. COL could go over slot with their next pick but that leaves a bunch of teams to pick their pocket between now and then 10:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Trying to do the Sal Stewart math 10:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, just wonder how you can give Collier $5 mil and then take a guy who’s a tough sign. They did Mat Nelson last year, maybe they take Melendez? 10:15 Carl: Given the landing teams for drafted prospect, could be an update for any of them in their actual FV? 10:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I might, where they’re drafted might cause a re-eval and then an FV change but the draft spot alone wouldn’t do it 10:16 Ben Schneider: Why does the screen say Sterlin is a 2B? 10:16 Eric A Longenhagen: He played some at Florida but is not good there 10:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure Beavers is the Orioles comp pick 10:21 Bluejay fan: Hi Eric. I am happy about the Barriera pick. In his interview after the draft, he talks about being excited to join the Bluejays. Does this impact perhaps he signs around the slot money? 10:21 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s over slot 10:21 Elbo: The ESPN coverage was impressive. We’re stuck with Harold on MLBN now though. 10:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Just based on talking with Kiley, it sounds like they ironed a lot of things out after doing it for the first time last year, and Kiley planned for this day all spring with regard to video, data, etc. 10:23 HYTT: the Greg/O’Dowd dynamic was really awkward to watch 10:23 Eric A Longenhagen: interesting, they’re at my 7 oclock and i can’t hear a word they’re saying 10:24 –: how real is the 1B/DH part for reggie crawford? 10:27 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s worth trying, especially as he rebuilds innings coming off TJ, you have half a season of him doing nothing 10:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the MLBN comments flowing in here are making Meg and I die laughing but I have no ill will toward those guys and I can’t post them 10:28 Eric A Longenhagen: okay one of em 10:28 Harold Reynolds: “Xavier Whatshisname really reminds me of David Ortiz and Dave Winfield”. 10:29 Kyle W: mlb broadcast needs more carlos and it would be way better 10:29 Eric A Longenhagen: i’m sure that’s true, he’s also coming into his own, has hit a different gear 10:29 Pinstripe Perry: Confused as to why MLBN uses Callis, Mayo, and Carlos on all the preview shows and then barely even tosses to them to discuss picks let alone put them on the desk. ESPN was a joy to watch though. 10:29 Eric A Longenhagen: Right, Jim is still the best doing this imo 10:29 Guest: Crime to hide Calis and Mayo like this 10:30 Steve: Thoughts on Beavers? 10:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Of all the college outfielders with hit tool questions, he and Jones are the two I’d pound the table for 10:31 Eric A Longenhagen: both purely on upside, Beavers could be lefty-hitting Werth 10:37 desertfox: know of any teams getting their pocket picked? 10:37 Eric A Longenhagen: i do not, always a fun story however 10:37 Drew: McGriff killing it here 10:37 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen him chat up kids’ parents at Area Codes and whatnot, 80 charisma 10:38 pinwheel: Thoughts on Thomas Harrington? 10:39 Eric A Longenhagen: great foundation, plus command, great athlete, don’t love the fastball shape but dig everything else 10:39 RyanW: Good night for Campbell 10:39 Ben Schneider: I’ve heard someone say the Pirates wanted Ritchie 10:39 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible 10:39 Caleb: Thoughts on JR Ritchie? 10:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Love the frame, arm action, and breaking ball. velo would dip later in outings and that slid him behind some other guys 10:41 Eric A Longenhagen: You know who’s hanging here at the draft and who has useful dope? The 2023 high school kids who played in the all star game friday 10:41 Guest: Baltimore saved a little money at 1-1, yes? This doesn’t seem like the pick where they used it. When does that happen? 10:41 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure they saved much there, remember Jackson just goes 2 or 3 10:43 dew98a: If the Rangers save $2M on Rocker, what does that get them in 4th round? I’m so confused. Are there guys that slide and other teams don’t take them bc they can’t pay them? 10:43 Eric A Longenhagen: correct 10:43 Eric A Longenhagen: but that late, you have fewer options, you get who you get 10:43 Eric A Longenhagen: honestly, based on TEX’s past behavior, it’s more likely they spread that out to several mid-six-figure HS guys 10:50 Naranjito: The Rockies have broken my brain. I thought for sure Hughes at 10 was a way to prepare for a big deal in the 30s, but nope! What gives? 10:50 Eric A Longenhagen: no idea 10:51 Ben Schneider: What do you think of Coffey? Do the Sox know there are players not in a socal hs? 10:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Must be a money area scout 10:53 Cronkite: Holliday – Beavers – Wagner : Thoughts on O’s draft thus far? 10:54 Eric A Longenhagen: They seem to buy into guys who’ve performed better of late, guys with huge upticks in performance in their draft year. has happened the last two years 10:55 Matt: right now judd fabian is thinking…. 10:58 Eric A Longenhagen: I wonder if McKeon will smoke with me post draft 10:58 Rockiea: Are we dumb enough to luck into Brock Porter? 10:59 Eric A Longenhagen: I wonder if he’s ticketed for TBR. Right before their pick I had a person or two text me they thought they were taking him there, maybe hey caught wind of a rumor. 10:59 grover: Is Malcolm Moore still signable? 10:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah and I talked to a cross checker who thought he’d go today 10:59 Jimmy Beane: How does Susac compare to Tyler Soderstrom offensively? 11:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Worse bat-to-ball, actually has better long-term physical projection 11:00 CB: Is a guy like Hjerpe a slot sign? 11:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, sounded like he had homes all throughout back third of first round 11:02 Andy J: interesting the Dodgers went with Rushing when they have Smith + Cartaya coming through 11:03 Eric A Longenhagen: You don’t draft for need in MLB, so much attrition. 11:04 CB: Let’s say TBR has a deal with Porter (that’s how it works right?). What happens if some other team pops him first? Like what stops a team like the Cardinals with their slot sign in R1 from taking him? 11:04 Eric A Longenhagen: nothing, you risk angering the agent and player enough that they don’t sign, which might impact how that agent does business with you in future years. Teams call players’ bluff all the time and ask for forgiveness rather than permission in those scenarios 11:06 Andrew: are both Wagner and Beavers slot guys? 11:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess so, and BAL has sometimes shaved like 300k off a couple guys and turned that into a mil bonus later, but still prob close to slot if that’s the case 11:07 TL Hopper: Does Xavier Isaacs enter the Rays top 20 prospects? 11:07 Eric A Longenhagen: no 11:07 Eric A Longenhagen: i’ll 35+ him 11:07 Guest: Is it weird for you at this point in the draft when teams are taking guys that are 20 or 30 spots and a tier or two down your board? 11:07 Eric A Longenhagen: no 11:07 Eric A Longenhagen: my board is mine, lotta variability 11:08 Jaime: Any word on a home for Prielipp? 11:08 Eric A Longenhagen: tee hee 11:10 Ryan: I assume the Dbacks will get some savings from the Melendez pick to sign Jones? 11:10 Eric A Longenhagen: me too 11:12 Guest: Do outlier picks affect your thinking of a guy, e.g. would Xavier Isaacs have ended up with a lower rating if he got picked in the third round? 11:12 Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll likely continue to fall down that HS Hitter category as more who aren’t on The Board get picked 11:13 Eric A Longenhagen: But he still deserves to be on the pro side of The Board, just as a bat-only flier type toward the bottom of the rays list 11:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Another guy for the Rockies here with a sinekr shaped fastball 11:14 Eric A Longenhagen: sinker* 11:14 desertfox: would you take a flyer on palmquist around here? seems like a sure fire LH MIRP 11:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if he has the breaking ball command for me to slam dunk him here 11:15 Rockiea: …Get Lucky is playing right now…. 11:15 Eric A Longenhagen: dats a bop 11:16 J: Is Cox an overslot guy? Maybe that’s where the Hughes savings go 11:16 Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda don’t think so, but don’t know what his number is 11:16 TL Hopper: Didn’t like Plouff getting up and announcing his employer and turnong it into a commercial for Jomboy Media. It’s not his moment. His draft moment was 15 years ago. Get up, make your pick, get off the stage. 11:16 Eric A Longenhagen: garmonbozia 11:19 Guest: RE Graham: sucks announcers can’t tell the full story on prospects when it comes to make up since they don’t want to nationally trash a kid. Makes sense but incomplete data for viewers 11:19 Eric A Longenhagen: and to be clear, one team’s bad makeup is another team’s red-ass competitiveness or simple immaturity 11:20 Justin: RE Graham: How would you rate his makeup concerns relative to other significant draft prospects over the past half decade or so? 11:21 Eric A Longenhagen: my sources haven’t gone into specifics enough to do that 11:23 HYTT: How much better are teams at identifying and drafting the best players each year than they were a decade ago? I feel like it’s dismissive to call the draft a true crap shoot. That may have been the case way back when, but not now I don’t think. 11:24 Eric A Longenhagen: It is dismissive, the integration of data and improved dev has made it better, but there is a portion of the whole thing that’s random and chaotic because ultimately were talking about young men who suddenly have a lot of money and now live a unique lifestyle 11:24 J: Nathan Rode on twitter says that Jackson Cox has big spin rates. Is that a negative if his FB has sinker shape? 11:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Nate’s right, I think those big curveball are easier to ID out of hand when your fastball lives at the bottom of the zone 11:25 hmm: pirates took barco with prielipp available. you have the latter two ticks higher. is barco within the margin of error of prielipp, or is that a miss on their part? 11:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think Barco has a better shot to start 11:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Twins bullpen could use help, wouldn’t be crazy for them to rush him 11:27 Jeff G: Any idea for the Cardinals pick coming up? 11:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I stopped working the phone to do site stuff 11:27 CB: Do you have “your guys” who you know should grade 40 or 40+ or whatever, but you genuinely believe will be much better? 11:28 Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, and the inverse, and they tend to be either at the top or bottom of their FV tier 11:29 Guardian: Cleveland drafting a feel to pitch college strike thrower? Get out of town! 11:29 Eric A Longenhagen: what him throw 96 at instructs 11:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Five minute warning here get your questions in 11:30 Gest: Is Cistulli still with the Blue Jays? 11:31 Eric A Longenhagen: yep 11:31 Eric A Longenhagen: he loves it 11:31 Ben Schneider: who is Cistulli? 11:32 Eric A Longenhagen: former managing editor here, now Jays pro scouting analyst 11:32 CB: Bold prediction? 11:32 Eric A Longenhagen: That Rays do Porter tonight 11:32 Rockiea: Can you see how much booze is flowing in the green room? 11:33 Eric A Longenhagen: no, i’m still right beneath the MLB set, you can’t see me unless i stand up and walk by 11:33 Kyle: Is Ben Lindbergh the most underutilized Ringer personality?? 11:33 Eric A Longenhagen: all their baseball people are 11:33 CB: Is Sam Horn getting signed? (sincerely a Mizzou fan who needs him to play QB) 11:33 Eric A Longenhagen: i doubt it 11:33 RNase-free Jeff: are the Guardians the best pitching-development org over the last 15 years? They’ve taken a couple of college arms tonight. But they seem to just pump out starters. 11:34 Eric A Longenhagen: them and NYY I think 11:34 TL Hopper: Who gets paid more? Xavier or Porter, if they do go Porter? 11:34 Eric A Longenhagen: I imagine X is way under slot 11:34 A’s fan: I don’t see Henry Bolte on your board, what’s your take on him? 11:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna add him, huge power (he actually hit a ball that broke a window of one of the dorms at U of San Diego during Area Codes) just skeptical of the hit tool. He’ll be on their pro list. 11:35 jz13: Thoughts on the Tidwell pick? 11:36 Eric A Longenhagen: rock solid value, huge velo, delivery kinda scares me, seems like he’s at least a good reliever 11:36 HF: Odds Eric hits up in n out post-draft? 11:36 Eric A Longenhagen: 0% 11:36 Kevin Goldstein Stan: Bad Bunny’s FV? 11:36 Eric A Longenhagen: His swing was bad, bunny. 11:36 Guest: Cole Phillips opinion? 11:37 Eric A Longenhagen: huge velo, below avg secondaries, coming off TJ, Braves have experience re-working secondary stuff during the rehab period 11:37 Ben Schneider: How many people are still there? def quieter than earlier 11:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Prob like 75-100 fans, lotta tired kids, about as many people here working as fans now 11:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay I have to split. Thanks to those of who stuck around for this. Check the site tomorrow for analysis and perhaps another chat.