After an offseason that saw labor acrimony bookended by two frenetic free agency periods, the 2022 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year’s Braves? Our staff thought they’d win the NL East. Last year’s Angels, Mets, Twins, and Padres? Whoops! Such is the prognostication business.
We asked the staff to predict the expanded playoff field, pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in; here are the results.
American League
A number of the American League’s rebuilding clubs made big moves this offseason, but our staff sees the Seattle Mariners as the only ones likely to play October baseball this year. Despite adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, the Texas Rangers didn’t receive a single postseason vote. Signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez (and promoting Spencer Torkelson) is sure to pay dividends for the Detroit Tigers eventually, but it only netted one third Wild Card vote; the now Carlos Correa-rich Minnesota Twins secured nine playoff votes, but are on the outside looking in.
Meanwhile, the AL East is on deck to send three teams to the postseason. The Toronto Blue Jays, who trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers in their odds to make the playoffs and win the World Series, are strong favorites to win the division, but the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays barely trail in their total playoff votes. The Boston Red Sox are the odd squad out here, though it’s worth noting their playoff odds exceed those of the Rays. I suspect the staff is accounting for Tampa’s vaunted depth in a way our postseason odds sometimes struggle to.
Staff Predictions: AL West
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Houston Astros
17
2
1
1
21
Seattle Mariners
6
1
3
3
13
Los Angeles Angels
0
0
2
2
4
Oakland Athletics
0
0
0
0
0
Texas Rangers
0
0
0
0
0
Staff Predictions: AL Central
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Chicago White Sox
21
0
0
1
22
Minnesota Twins
2
1
2
4
9
Kansas City Royals
0
1
0
1
2
Detroit Tigers
0
0
0
1
1
Cleveland Guardians
0
0
0
0
0
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If the AL East is rich in playoff potential, the National League finds its answer in the West and East divisions. The Dodgers were the only unanimous division winner in either league, though we don’t think the San Diego Padres and San Francisco will go down without a fight.
The Atlanta Braves’ hold on the East isn’t quite as strong, though they still outpaced the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins don’t make the cut here, but did garner three votes; their playoff odds sit at 29.1%, buoyed by a terrific young pitching staff and a competent if unspectacular offense. The Milwaukee Brewers are the beneficiaries of a relatively weak NL Central, though the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t without their champions.
Staff Predictions: NL West
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Los Angeles Dodgers
23
0
0
0
23
San Diego Padres
0
2
6
6
14
San Francisco Giants
0
0
10
2
12
Colorado Rockies
0
0
0
1
1
Arizona Diamondbacks
0
0
0
0
0
Staff Predictions: NL Central
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Milwaukee Brewers
18
3
0
0
21
St. Louis Cardinals
5
1
0
3
9
Cincinnati Reds
0
0
0
0
0
Chicago Cubs
0
0
0
0
0
Pittsburgh Pirates
0
0
0
0
0
Staff Predictions: NL East
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Atlanta Braves
17
4
1
0
22
New York Mets
4
8
4
5
21
Philadelphia Phillies
2
4
2
4
12
Miami Marlins
0
1
0
2
3
Washington Nationals
0
0
0
0
0
National League: One Seed
Team
Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers
22
Milwaukee Brewers
1
National League: Two Seed
Team
Votes
Atlanta Braves
9
Milwaukee Brewers
8
St. Louis Cardinals
2
New York Mets
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Philadelphia Phillies
1
Pennant and World Series Winners
It isn’t especially surprising given their general postseason support, but the Blue Jays and Dodgers are expected to do quite well in their respective pennant races, as well as in the World Series. Our ballots yielded 12 possible Fall Classic matchups; the Dodgers represent the NL in seven of them.
American League Pennant Winner
Team
Votes
Toronto Blue Jays
11
Chicago White Sox
4
New York Yankees
3
Houston Astros
2
Los Angeles Angels
1
Seattle Mariners
1
Minnesota Twins
1
National League Pennant Winner
Team
Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers
18
Milwaukee Brewers
3
Atlanta Braves
1
Philadelphia Phillies
1
World Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
9
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
3
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
1
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
1
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
World Series Winner
Team
Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers
11
Toronto Blue Jays
5
Milwaukee Brewers
2
Chicago White Sox
2
Los Angeles Angels
1
Minnesota Twins
1
New York Yankees
1
Individual Awards
For the first time since 2013, when Evan Longoria edged ahead by two votes, someone other than Mike Trout is predicted to win the AL MVP. It’s hard to say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t merit consideration. His 6.7 WAR 2021 campaign would almost certainly have netted him some hardware were it not for Shohei Ohtani’s superlative two-way effort. Speaking of, I’ll admit to being a bit surprised the phenom didn’t do better here, though I’m pleased with the range of selections in this field, from the recently extended (and somehow still underappreciated) José Ramírez to Rays wunderkind Wander Franco.
Gerrit Cole tops our pitching projections by almost a full win. By our Depth Charts, he’s third in projected ERA and FIP, and first in both among AL pitchers (trailing only Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes). And in a 2021 that saw him swoon midseason in the wake of sticky stuff enforcement, he still managed a 3.23 ERA, a 2.92 FIP, the third best strikeout rate in baseball among starters, and 5.3 WAR.
A number of top AL prospects, including Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2 overall), Julio Rodríguez (No. 4), and Torkelson (No. 5) are ticketed for debuts this week, and No. 1 overall prospect Adley Rutschman, who is currently nursing an injury, looms. It all makes for a highly competitive AL Rookie of the Year field, with Witt expected to emerge victorious.
In four major league seasons, Juan Soto has accumulated 17.7 WAR, posted a .301/.432/.550 line (156 wRC+), and hit 98 home runs. He is 23. He projects for a 172 wRC+ in 2022. The Nationals might not be very good, but Soto most definitely is.
The Brewers’ rotation is well represented here (it no doubt accounts for a good deal of their strong division tally above), but Dodgers ace Walker Buehler takes the cake. He projects for the second-most innings in the NL by our Depth Charts, narrowly edging out Zack Wheeler, and falling just behind Sandy Alcantara. Burnes projects for 174 innings, just in case you thought we might be spared Discourse.
Seiya Suzuki is a former four-time NPB All-Star and a five-time NPB Best Nine Award winner. He also boasts three NPB Gold Gloves, and our staff expects him to add some NL Rookie of the Year hardware to his mantel. Oneil Cruz might have done better here if it weren’t for the Pirates’ decision to send him to Triple-A to start the year. As is, he barely edges out the Phillies’ Bryson Stott, who did make his team’s Opening Day roster.
That’s the whole shebang. Each voter’s full ballot for each league is below; these tables are sortable. We’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up, and look forward to writing about all of the ways we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone!
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
The longer the odds, the higher the payout (or in this case, the bigger the bragging rights). Nothing but high-fives from me.
MorboTheAnnihilator
4 years ago
I hope Oneil Cruz wins or gets second in rookie of the year voting and gets a full year of service time so he can make the Pirate’s front office look stupid for trying to manipulate his service time. If he pulls it off they won’t get the extra year of control they think they will and they will have missed several months of him with the MLB club this season.
Let’s say Cruz comes up after a couple of months and is great – puts up 3WAR in 400PA. But Suzuki is the rookie WAR leader with 3.5 – but in a full season. Do writers now value the rate stats more highly over the counting stats?
I think writers would if the margin is that close. And I think, since the Bucs have a deserved reputation for frugality, writers might vote for Cruz anyway to stick it to the Pirates. Which would be fantastic.
As a Bucs fan I wholly endorse this. It’s so transparent what they’re doing, but I think the most pathetic part of it was they sent him down to get more outfield reps…yet didn’t even give him any reps in the outfield until the last few days he was in ST. In short, he didn’t have enough reps cause we didn’t give him enough.
My problem is less with the front office and more with the rule itself that incentivizes keeping him down. Trading 20 games of a player in exchange for a full extra season of a player makes too much sense in a season where the difference might be winning 63 games instead of 62. I don’t support it, but the logic behind it is pretty overwhelming
LathundMember since 2025
4 years ago
Ben predicting the Brewers to miss playoffs entirely dissapoints me 🙁
Yeah, my favorite writer and my favorite team. Sigh. Oh well.
solthecutter
4 years ago
Pretty sure Mike Podhorzers AL WC are a mistake… I dont’t think the Yankees can win the 1st and 3rd WC spot.
solthecutter
4 years ago
Surprised nobody picked Acuna for NL MVP. I know he’s coming off injury but all the projections don’t seem too concerned. IMO he’s the 2nd best player in the NL after Soto.
I actually like Matt Olson more than Acuna for MVP on the braves. If he can hit 40 bombs in Oakland, 50 is on the table in Atlanta. Not to mention his counting stats will be great with Acuna hitting in front of him(this shouldnt matter but it still does).
My super Darkhorse for Atlanta is ozzie albies. If his bat takes another step forward and he can hit for a 135-145 wRC+, he will be in trea turner territory who led the league in fWAR.
I would be thrilled to see Albies take that next step, but I just don’t think the plate discipline is there. Hard to see how he gets any more power out of that frame (although also hard to understand how he gets to as much power as he does). I think he’s basically found his 4-5 WAR level, which is pretty excellent.
The one weird trick for Albies would be to just hit righthanded. Batting lefty, he’s bascially Tommy Edman, but as a righty he’s basically Mookie Betts.
It’s probably worth a try at this point, but of course we have almost no data on how he would fare as a righty vs. RHP since he only has like 10 or 15 professional PAs in that split.
It certainly worked for Cedric Mullins. Switch hitters with a large split should consider trying it and Albies is so good from the right side he seems like a good candidate.
Mike NMN
4 years ago
Three out of five teams in the NL Central are thought to have no chance to make it to the expanded playoffs. Will they win 200 games combined?
Oh, I think so. The Cubs aren’t TERRIBLE and added a couple of pieces. The Reds also aren’t terrible. I could see a 75/70/65 win split between CHI/CIN/PIT, respectively. 210 wins would be a solid over/under, though.
sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Now that I know what the consensus is, here are sadtrombone’s All Anti-Consensus Picks
AL MVP: Aaron Judge. I was tempted to go with Carlos Correa or Wander Franco here, but I think Judge gets overlooked. The guy underperformed his xwOBA by about 30 points, he played out of position for a decent amount of last year, did his best job controlling the strike zone ever, and somehow he wound up with a 5.5 win season anyway. My concern about Judge is mostly health at this point. Everything is in place for him to go nova. (It also helps that I am not convinced there are any other MVP candidates on the Yankees, so very little vote splitting)
NL MVP: Matt Olson. Going against the grain here basically means not picking Juan Soto, so to make things a bit harder, I’m going to go with Matt Olson. The park factors this year are going to be screwy with universal humidors, but he’s going from a park that suppresses homers to one that plays neutral for left handers, so I think there’s a real chance that more of these are going to go out and it’s going to be hard to overlook.
AL CY YOUNG: Framber Valdez. There are not a lot of good options aside from the obvious choices (Cole, Giolito, and Bieber) and the Blue Jays have four plausible dark-horse candidates so there’s a possibility of vote splitting. But Framber Valdez’s stuff is nasty, the ball is on the ground a lot, and he’s still striking people out at a decent clip. His HR/FB was high last year but I think it’s going to be lower and he’ll shred.
NL CY YOUNG: Aaron Nola. This is an outrageously risky pick because, have you seen the Phillies’ defense lately? The stadium is also pretty homer-prone, so the ERA might not stand out. But Nola gets strikeouts and limits walks, and I think that the defensive adjustments on bWAR are going to get him a lot of attention like he got a few years ago.
AL ROY: Matt Brash. Two writers picked Rutschman, which was surprising, but he is hurt. Three writers picked Stephen Kwan, who would have been my pick except that he’s now become the “cool” anti-consensus pick. I am tempted to go with Shane Baz here, but I do think that the Rays might be a little conservative with letting him go deep because that’s how they roll. Matt Brash, though, nobody picked him, and he’s got hellacious stuff. My other top pick would have been Joe Ryan, who is terminally underrated, but I just don’t think a 3-win pitcher is going to do it this year. Brash has more upside.
NL ROY: Max Meyer. The stuff plays. He has a limited track record in the minors but I think he’s going to outperform Hunter Greene, and possibly a good chunk of the rest of the Marlins staff (which itself is pretty good). I fully expect him to have some signature gams where he’s “on” and everyone is whiffing like crazy against him.
Assuming Judge is unvaccinated (which obviously is only speculation at this point), missing 9 road games against the Blue Jays could be a huge blow to any MVP candidacy. Not just because it hurts his stats, but also because of the public perception of a team leader not being willing to get vaccinated for the good of the team.
Yeah, if he’s unvaccinated and misses those games there are a whole lot of people who will take issue with him being “most valuable.” I remember my reaction when NC State lost the college world series because they literally couldn’t field a team. It won’t be quite the dramatic but it will also be only one person to focus their rage on.
What I am surprised is that Steamer has him all the way down at 11th.
Just last season, Buehler was 3rd in fwar/1st in ra9-war among NL pitchers.
In the last three seasons, Buehler is 4th in fwar/3rd in ra9-war.
Abbreviated 2020 likely messing up with the projections.
The more I see it, the less the Steamer projection for Buehler makes sense.
Steamer is somehow projecting 4.18ERA/4.12 FIP for a 27 year old pitcher who has a career 2.90 ERA/3.20 FIP just coming off of a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP season.
MRDXolMember since 2021
4 years ago
Some pleasantly bold predictions… Tim Anderson MVP? Alek Manoah Cy Young? Let’s go!
JoeyVottoIsGoneMember since 2016
4 years ago
Interesting to see that Will Smith (LAD) has a puncher’s chance for NL MVP.
Well, he’s not a slap hitter. I expect him to Rock this year. It would take someone pretty Jada-ed to think otherwise & if you say differently, it may be a bald-faced lie.
wrburgess
4 years ago
Longenhagen just throwing darts to show he doesn’t like award predictions :O
jlederer
4 years ago
I can assume FanGraphs doesn’t have employee drug testing based on Longenhagen’s award selections.
JimmieFoxxalorianMember since 2020
4 years ago
Its interesting that 6 voters feel Trout will play well enough to win MVP, yet only 4 even think the Angels make the playoffs. I think Trout will have his best season and be a unanimous MVP, Angels get in playoffs and Seattle does not.
I also will boldly(!) predict that the Rays won’t make the playoffs and will be barely edged out by the Red Sox. The Sox beat the Rays last year, and to that same ballclub they added Trevor Story and will have a healthy Chris Sale for at least the 2nd half of the season. Plus, Raffy Devers looks trimmer and quicker to me this Spring, and seems primed for a monster season.
For the Rays, I’m not sold that Josh Lowe is the better option than Austin Meadows (at least not for this season, Lowe’s first). Yes Franco is obviously a special player but other parts of their roster may run out of the typical Tampa magic dust. I don’t think the Rays have improved vs. last year, whereas many teams on their schedule have improved.
I realize the projections scream otherwise, but my gut biota tells me the Sox get in, and Rays don’t.
Most of the past few years the Angels have had MVP-quality seasons from Trout and haven’t made the playoffs. Last year they literally had an MVP season from Ohtani (arguably in him they had both an MVP pitcher and DH, in fact), and had Trout for some of the season, and didn’t make the playoffs. This isn’t a sport where one or even two MVPs can carry a team into the championships, but it certainly is one where an owner can prevent it.
marinmccoveysMember since 2026
4 years ago
I think that FG’s predictions are accurately capturing the Mets ceiling, but underestimating the floor. In addition to the obvious health concerns at the front of their rotation, the offense is depending on a LOT of 30 something hitters, admittedly several with productive histories. And that medical staff doesn’t have a favorable history.
Jasper FranciscoMember since 2017
4 years ago
It’s a chalk pick, but only one pick for Ohtani seems bonkers.
They have to be betting he won’t repeat his 2021, or won’t stay healthy. Difficult to see why he wouldn’t be the favorite for the next several years considering the WAR he’ll add both pitching and hitting.
I think a lot of voters raise their standards for a consecutive MVP, so it’s safer to bet against the guy who got it last year. I don’t know if that applies here or not since Ohtani is so unique, but I think that’s why no one went for him.
JediHoyer
4 years ago
Lol at 4(!!!!) Different Dodgers selected for MVP, it’s cheating.
Orel Hershiser to win the CY really seemed over the top. I don’t think Gagne will throw enough innings but if anyone there is taking home the hardware it’s FERNANDO TIME BABY
(Abba agrees)
Jason BMember since 2017
4 years ago
Luke with no CWS or ATL in the postseason – the lone outlier on both – capped by a Twins WS win. Bold! I like it
miltonfriedman
4 years ago
Tigers Over Dodgers in WS
MVP-Grossman(Yes, you heard me)
Cy Young-Skubal
ROY-Torkelson
I am still quite confused how nearly every predictor has the Yankees as the best team in all of MLB, yet nearly every prediction is for them to finish behind Toronto.
By all means, there are probably salient arguments to be had, but the math strongly disagrees with this predictions.
It’s one of the most peculiar and extreme contradictions.
Steven Kwan Squad represent
Disappointed Meg didn’t go for the AL award clean sweep by including him.
It would be very amusing for Cleveland to have the MVP, Cy Young, and ROY on their roster and not make the (expanded) playoffs.
I love it. If I had money on the line, I’d do Julio Rodriguez, but if I didn’t? Kwan would be way more fun to pick.
If Kwan and Rodriguez are deadlocked for the 2022 AL RoY, and Kwan gets a bonus for this, do we call the bonus money “Tie Kwan Dough”?
Kwan Sqwad?
Skwad. It was right there. 😀
So the Birchwood Bros have picked
Fortune favors the brave I guess
Stealth bold predictions post. Gotta tip your hat.
Two fer one
The longer the odds, the higher the payout (or in this case, the bigger the bragging rights). Nothing but high-fives from me.
I hope Oneil Cruz wins or gets second in rookie of the year voting and gets a full year of service time so he can make the Pirate’s front office look stupid for trying to manipulate his service time. If he pulls it off they won’t get the extra year of control they think they will and they will have missed several months of him with the MLB club this season.
I do wonder if that rule changes RoY voting.
Let’s say Cruz comes up after a couple of months and is great – puts up 3WAR in 400PA. But Suzuki is the rookie WAR leader with 3.5 – but in a full season. Do writers now value the rate stats more highly over the counting stats?
I think writers would if the margin is that close. And I think, since the Bucs have a deserved reputation for frugality, writers might vote for Cruz anyway to stick it to the Pirates. Which would be fantastic.
As a Bucs fan I wholly endorse this. It’s so transparent what they’re doing, but I think the most pathetic part of it was they sent him down to get more outfield reps…yet didn’t even give him any reps in the outfield until the last few days he was in ST. In short, he didn’t have enough reps cause we didn’t give him enough.
My problem is less with the front office and more with the rule itself that incentivizes keeping him down. Trading 20 games of a player in exchange for a full extra season of a player makes too much sense in a season where the difference might be winning 63 games instead of 62. I don’t support it, but the logic behind it is pretty overwhelming
Ben predicting the Brewers to miss playoffs entirely dissapoints me 🙁
Yeah, my favorite writer and my favorite team. Sigh. Oh well.
Pretty sure Mike Podhorzers AL WC are a mistake… I dont’t think the Yankees can win the 1st and 3rd WC spot.
Surprised nobody picked Acuna for NL MVP. I know he’s coming off injury but all the projections don’t seem too concerned. IMO he’s the 2nd best player in the NL after Soto.
Lop 70-130 PAs off anyone and their MVP odds take a big hit. He certainly has the skills to do it, but reasonable to view him as a long shot.
I actually like Matt Olson more than Acuna for MVP on the braves. If he can hit 40 bombs in Oakland, 50 is on the table in Atlanta. Not to mention his counting stats will be great with Acuna hitting in front of him(this shouldnt matter but it still does).
My super Darkhorse for Atlanta is ozzie albies. If his bat takes another step forward and he can hit for a 135-145 wRC+, he will be in trea turner territory who led the league in fWAR.
I would be thrilled to see Albies take that next step, but I just don’t think the plate discipline is there. Hard to see how he gets any more power out of that frame (although also hard to understand how he gets to as much power as he does). I think he’s basically found his 4-5 WAR level, which is pretty excellent.
The one weird trick for Albies would be to just hit righthanded. Batting lefty, he’s bascially Tommy Edman, but as a righty he’s basically Mookie Betts.
It’s probably worth a try at this point, but of course we have almost no data on how he would fare as a righty vs. RHP since he only has like 10 or 15 professional PAs in that split.
It certainly worked for Cedric Mullins. Switch hitters with a large split should consider trying it and Albies is so good from the right side he seems like a good candidate.
Three out of five teams in the NL Central are thought to have no chance to make it to the expanded playoffs. Will they win 200 games combined?
Oh, I think so. The Cubs aren’t TERRIBLE and added a couple of pieces. The Reds also aren’t terrible. I could see a 75/70/65 win split between CHI/CIN/PIT, respectively. 210 wins would be a solid over/under, though.
Now that I know what the consensus is, here are sadtrombone’s All Anti-Consensus Picks
AL MVP: Aaron Judge. I was tempted to go with Carlos Correa or Wander Franco here, but I think Judge gets overlooked. The guy underperformed his xwOBA by about 30 points, he played out of position for a decent amount of last year, did his best job controlling the strike zone ever, and somehow he wound up with a 5.5 win season anyway. My concern about Judge is mostly health at this point. Everything is in place for him to go nova. (It also helps that I am not convinced there are any other MVP candidates on the Yankees, so very little vote splitting)
NL MVP: Matt Olson. Going against the grain here basically means not picking Juan Soto, so to make things a bit harder, I’m going to go with Matt Olson. The park factors this year are going to be screwy with universal humidors, but he’s going from a park that suppresses homers to one that plays neutral for left handers, so I think there’s a real chance that more of these are going to go out and it’s going to be hard to overlook.
AL CY YOUNG: Framber Valdez. There are not a lot of good options aside from the obvious choices (Cole, Giolito, and Bieber) and the Blue Jays have four plausible dark-horse candidates so there’s a possibility of vote splitting. But Framber Valdez’s stuff is nasty, the ball is on the ground a lot, and he’s still striking people out at a decent clip. His HR/FB was high last year but I think it’s going to be lower and he’ll shred.
NL CY YOUNG: Aaron Nola. This is an outrageously risky pick because, have you seen the Phillies’ defense lately? The stadium is also pretty homer-prone, so the ERA might not stand out. But Nola gets strikeouts and limits walks, and I think that the defensive adjustments on bWAR are going to get him a lot of attention like he got a few years ago.
AL ROY: Matt Brash. Two writers picked Rutschman, which was surprising, but he is hurt. Three writers picked Stephen Kwan, who would have been my pick except that he’s now become the “cool” anti-consensus pick. I am tempted to go with Shane Baz here, but I do think that the Rays might be a little conservative with letting him go deep because that’s how they roll. Matt Brash, though, nobody picked him, and he’s got hellacious stuff. My other top pick would have been Joe Ryan, who is terminally underrated, but I just don’t think a 3-win pitcher is going to do it this year. Brash has more upside.
NL ROY: Max Meyer. The stuff plays. He has a limited track record in the minors but I think he’s going to outperform Hunter Greene, and possibly a good chunk of the rest of the Marlins staff (which itself is pretty good). I fully expect him to have some signature gams where he’s “on” and everyone is whiffing like crazy against him.
Assuming Judge is unvaccinated (which obviously is only speculation at this point), missing 9 road games against the Blue Jays could be a huge blow to any MVP candidacy. Not just because it hurts his stats, but also because of the public perception of a team leader not being willing to get vaccinated for the good of the team.
Yeah, if he’s unvaccinated and misses those games there are a whole lot of people who will take issue with him being “most valuable.” I remember my reaction when NC State lost the college world series because they literally couldn’t field a team. It won’t be quite the dramatic but it will also be only one person to focus their rage on.
Can brash get to more than 3 wins in his theoretical innings cap?
Framber – looking good through one start!!
I appreciate Longenhagen’s thoroughness with the “LAD” after Will Smith’s name.
Probably doesn’t want to get slapped
Anyone else surprised by all the Buehler picks here? Steamer has him down for 11th in the NL in pitching WAR (and even worse in RA9-WAR).
What I am surprised is that Steamer has him all the way down at 11th.
Just last season, Buehler was 3rd in fwar/1st in ra9-war among NL pitchers.
In the last three seasons, Buehler is 4th in fwar/3rd in ra9-war.
Abbreviated 2020 likely messing up with the projections.
The more I see it, the less the Steamer projection for Buehler makes sense.
Steamer is somehow projecting 4.18ERA/4.12 FIP for a 27 year old pitcher
who has a career 2.90 ERA/3.20 FIP just coming off of a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP season.
Some pleasantly bold predictions… Tim Anderson MVP? Alek Manoah Cy Young? Let’s go!
Interesting to see that Will Smith (LAD) has a puncher’s chance for NL MVP.
He is good and his team is good
I see what you did here. 😉
Well, he’s not a slap hitter. I expect him to Rock this year. It would take someone pretty Jada-ed to think otherwise & if you say differently, it may be a bald-faced lie.
Longenhagen just throwing darts to show he doesn’t like award predictions :O
I can assume FanGraphs doesn’t have employee drug testing based on Longenhagen’s award selections.
Its interesting that 6 voters feel Trout will play well enough to win MVP, yet only 4 even think the Angels make the playoffs. I think Trout will have his best season and be a unanimous MVP, Angels get in playoffs and Seattle does not.
I also will boldly(!) predict that the Rays won’t make the playoffs and will be barely edged out by the Red Sox. The Sox beat the Rays last year, and to that same ballclub they added Trevor Story and will have a healthy Chris Sale for at least the 2nd half of the season. Plus, Raffy Devers looks trimmer and quicker to me this Spring, and seems primed for a monster season.
For the Rays, I’m not sold that Josh Lowe is the better option than Austin Meadows (at least not for this season, Lowe’s first). Yes Franco is obviously a special player but other parts of their roster may run out of the typical Tampa magic dust. I don’t think the Rays have improved vs. last year, whereas many teams on their schedule have improved.
I realize the projections scream otherwise, but my gut biota tells me the Sox get in, and Rays don’t.
Most of the past few years the Angels have had MVP-quality seasons from Trout and haven’t made the playoffs. Last year they literally had an MVP season from Ohtani (arguably in him they had both an MVP pitcher and DH, in fact), and had Trout for some of the season, and didn’t make the playoffs. This isn’t a sport where one or even two MVPs can carry a team into the championships, but it certainly is one where an owner can prevent it.
I think that FG’s predictions are accurately capturing the Mets ceiling, but underestimating the floor. In addition to the obvious health concerns at the front of their rotation, the offense is depending on a LOT of 30 something hitters, admittedly several with productive histories. And that medical staff doesn’t have a favorable history.
It’s a chalk pick, but only one pick for Ohtani seems bonkers.
They have to be betting he won’t repeat his 2021, or won’t stay healthy. Difficult to see why he wouldn’t be the favorite for the next several years considering the WAR he’ll add both pitching and hitting.
I think a lot of voters raise their standards for a consecutive MVP, so it’s safer to bet against the guy who got it last year. I don’t know if that applies here or not since Ohtani is so unique, but I think that’s why no one went for him.
Lol at 4(!!!!) Different Dodgers selected for MVP, it’s cheating.
Orel Hershiser to win the CY really seemed over the top. I don’t think Gagne will throw enough innings but if anyone there is taking home the hardware it’s FERNANDO TIME BABY
(Abba agrees)
Luke with no CWS or ATL in the postseason – the lone outlier on both – capped by a Twins WS win. Bold! I like it
Tigers Over Dodgers in WS
MVP-Grossman(Yes, you heard me)
Cy Young-Skubal
ROY-Torkelson
Found Chris Ilitch’s burner account
I am still quite confused how nearly every predictor has the Yankees as the best team in all of MLB, yet nearly every prediction is for them to finish behind Toronto.
By all means, there are probably salient arguments to be had, but the math strongly disagrees with this predictions.
It’s one of the most peculiar and extreme contradictions.