FanGraphs 2022 Staff Predictions

After an offseason that saw labor acrimony bookended by two frenetic free agency periods, the 2022 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year’s Braves? Our staff thought they’d win the NL East. Last year’s Angels, Mets, Twins, and Padres? Whoops! Such is the prognostication business.

We asked the staff to predict the expanded playoff field, pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in; here are the results.

American League

A number of the American League’s rebuilding clubs made big moves this offseason, but our staff sees the Seattle Mariners as the only ones likely to play October baseball this year. Despite adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, the Texas Rangers didn’t receive a single postseason vote. Signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez (and promoting Spencer Torkelson) is sure to pay dividends for the Detroit Tigers eventually, but it only netted one third Wild Card vote; the now Carlos Correa-rich Minnesota Twins secured nine playoff votes, but are on the outside looking in.

Meanwhile, the AL East is on deck to send three teams to the postseason. The Toronto Blue Jays, who trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers in their odds to make the playoffs and win the World Series, are strong favorites to win the division, but the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays barely trail in their total playoff votes. The Boston Red Sox are the odd squad out here, though it’s worth noting their playoff odds exceed those of the Rays. I suspect the staff is accounting for Tampa’s vaunted depth in a way our postseason odds sometimes struggle to.

National League

If the AL East is rich in playoff potential, the National League finds its answer in the West and East divisions. The Dodgers were the only unanimous division winner in either league, though we don’t think the San Diego Padres and San Francisco will go down without a fight.

The Atlanta Braves’ hold on the East isn’t quite as strong, though they still outpaced the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins don’t make the cut here, but did garner three votes; their playoff odds sit at 29.1%, buoyed by a terrific young pitching staff and a competent if unspectacular offense. The Milwaukee Brewers are the beneficiaries of a relatively weak NL Central, though the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t without their champions.

Pennant and World Series Winners

It isn’t especially surprising given their general postseason support, but the Blue Jays and Dodgers are expected to do quite well in their respective pennant races, as well as in the World Series. Our ballots yielded 12 possible Fall Classic matchups; the Dodgers represent the NL in seven of them.

Individual Awards

For the first time since 2013, when Evan Longoria edged ahead by two votes, someone other than Mike Trout is predicted to win the AL MVP. It’s hard to say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t merit consideration. His 6.7 WAR 2021 campaign would almost certainly have netted him some hardware were it not for Shohei Ohtani’s superlative two-way effort. Speaking of, I’ll admit to being a bit surprised the phenom didn’t do better here, though I’m pleased with the range of selections in this field, from the recently extended (and somehow still underappreciated) José Ramírez to Rays wunderkind Wander Franco.

Gerrit Cole tops our pitching projections by almost a full win. By our Depth Charts, he’s third in projected ERA and FIP, and first in both among AL pitchers (trailing only Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes). And in a 2021 that saw him swoon midseason in the wake of sticky stuff enforcement, he still managed a 3.23 ERA, a 2.92 FIP, the third best strikeout rate in baseball among starters, and 5.3 WAR.

A number of top AL prospects, including Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2 overall), Julio Rodríguez (No. 4), and Torkelson (No. 5) are ticketed for debuts this week, and No. 1 overall prospect Adley Rutschman, who is currently nursing an injury, looms. It all makes for a highly competitive AL Rookie of the Year field, with Witt expected to emerge victorious.

In four major league seasons, Juan Soto has accumulated 17.7 WAR, posted a .301/.432/.550 line (156 wRC+), and hit 98 home runs. He is 23. He projects for a 172 wRC+ in 2022. The Nationals might not be very good, but Soto most definitely is.

The Brewers’ rotation is well represented here (it no doubt accounts for a good deal of their strong division tally above), but Dodgers ace Walker Buehler takes the cake. He projects for the second-most innings in the NL by our Depth Charts, narrowly edging out Zack Wheeler, and falling just behind Sandy Alcantara. Burnes projects for 174 innings, just in case you thought we might be spared Discourse.

Seiya Suzuki is a former four-time NPB All-Star and a five-time NPB Best Nine Award winner. He also boasts three NPB Gold Gloves, and our staff expects him to add some NL Rookie of the Year hardware to his mantel. Oneil Cruz might have done better here if it weren’t for the Pirates’ decision to send him to Triple-A to start the year. As is, he barely edges out the Phillies’ Bryson Stott, who did make his team’s Opening Day roster.

That’s the whole shebang. Each voter’s full ballot for each league is below; these tables are sortable. We’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up, and look forward to writing about all of the ways we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone!

Full Staff Predictions