| 12:00 |
 Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our Wild Card Game 1 chat-a-thon
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| 12:01 |
Jay Jaffe: I’lll be joined here shortly by Dan Szymborski and David Laurila, and then at some point, the bullpen will open up and we’ll get some fresh arms in here as well
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| 12:02 |
 David Laurila: Greetings all. Happy postseason baseball.
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| 12:03 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s time to play “Which Channel is That Game On Anyway,” and if you’re asking about the Rays and Guardians opener about to begin, it’s on ESPN
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| 12:03 |
troybruno: is it too early to start enjoying an adult beverage with your postseason baseball?
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| 12:04 |
Jay Jaffe: For me? Yes, but that’s because I’m working. you’re free to crack one open but I suggest pacing yourself
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| 12:04 |
 Dan Szymborski: Gafternoon!
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| 12:05 |
William: Am I correct that this is the shakiest a Yankee playoff bullpen has felt in ages? Feels like that was always the Yankee’s biggest strength, and now it’s a buffet of injuries and wild cards.
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| 12:06 |
Jay Jaffe: With Chapman shaky, Green and King out, and now Marinaccio out and possibly Holmes as well, yes I think this is a very shaky bullpen unless the last two get healthy in a hurry.
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| 12:06 |
David Laurila: Sciambi-Glanville is an outstanding broadcast duo, arguably the best of the four postseason pairings, which is good news for folks watching this particular series.
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the injuries really knock them down, as does the mediocrification of Chapman
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| 12:07 |
Jay Jaffe: if not for the injuries, Chapman might have been DFA’d
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| 12:08 |
Alex W.: A speculative question I just had: Which of the 8 starting pitchers in today’s games will finish with the highest game score?
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| 12:08 |
David Laurila: Bieber
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| 12:10 |
Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Darvish
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| 12:11 |
Jay Jaffe: my first impulse was to choose Nola but he’s not starting until tomorrow
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| 12:11 |
Jay Jaffe: and I’m not convinced Scherzer will go deep enough
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| 12:12 |
David Laurila: I was in Cleveland last weekend for their penultimate series of the year, then saw Tampa Bay finish their season at Fenway. With the caveat that such things need to be taken with a large grain of salt, the Guardians looked more engaged and ready for the postseason than did the Rays.
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s a challenge pulling Scherzer from games, due to the risk that he might murder you.
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| 12:14 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: No nerdcasts this year?
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| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I hadn’t heard anything about that? David, Jay, you guys know for sure?
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| 12:15 |
Jay Jaffe: i don’t know, go ask Mike Petriello
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| 12:15 |
Grant: ESPN couldn’t have a pregame show? Had to be talking football until 10 minutes before first pitch?
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| 12:16 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s a long postseason and pregame shows are overrated to begin with, can’t imagine that there’s enough to justify the ratings before noon ET
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| 12:16 |
TooDamnTall: David, I have always been interested in your work. Would you say that you have an efficient process, or do you get a lot of interview answers that don’t end up being useful?
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| 12:16 |
David Laurila: I won’t claim to have a particularly efficient process (with any aspect of my life, really) but by and large, I tend to get good answers to my questions. That said, a few things inevitably get edited out.
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| 12:17 |
Trader Jerry’s: On a scale of 1 to good vibes, how excited are you all about the Mariners being back in the playoffs?
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| 12:18 |
Jay Jaffe: As somebody who has family on both sides in Seattle (not to mention some colleagues past and present such as Meg), I’m very happy they’re in. that drought was excruciating
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| 12:18 |
Guille: Woke up today to the sad fact that MLB.TV is blacking out all postseason games for international subscribers (this didn’t happen before). This specifically sucks because most of us don’t have an aternative way to see MLB games. So I guess Manfred can just eat shit and die
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| 12:18 |
David Laurila: Not a good look, nor a smart decision, if the goal is to grow the game. Bad on MLB.
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| 12:19 |
ArraezUp: Over/under on # of times a national broadcaster accidentally refers to the Guardians by their old name?
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| 12:19 |
Jay Jaffe: It’s ESPN, these guys aren’t just parachuting in for the first time this season, I don’t think, so I’d set the over/under at 1.5
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| 12:19 |
Jay Jaffe: and as I say this there’s a photo of Jose Ramirez wearing last year’s jersey LOL
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| 12:20 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Guards hit change ups really well. McClanahan’s best pitch is his cambio. Something to watch today.
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| 12:20 |
David Laurila: FWIW: The one time Shane McClanahan faced the Guardians this year (on July 31), three of the seven hits he allowed were to Alex Call, Ernie Clement, and Franmil Reyes — none of whom remain in Cleveland.
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| 12:21 |
Chris: There’s been a lot of talk about the Mets saving DeGrom for game 3 if they win game 1 and whether that’s the right move or not, but isn’t the Padres starting Snell in game 2 over Musgrove kind of similar in that Musgrove had the better year?
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| 12:21 |
Jay Jaffe: The Mets have as many as 6 lefties in their lineup (including switch-hitters) and a weak RH DH situation, and Snell has been on a roll lately, so i think it’s a defensible strategy
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| 12:22 |
Jeff: Why isn’t Eric doing his Friday at noon prospect chat?
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| 12:22 |
Jay Jaffe: because playoff chats take precedence.
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Back, sorry, had to reboot my modem.
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| 12:22 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Nothing like some 9:00 AM baseball, eh fellow west coasters?
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Could’ve been the Mariners!
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| 12:23 |
Romorr: I really want the Mariners to lose every game. Not for any nefarious reasons, but I think it would be funny to win zero games after not making the playoffs for 2 decades.
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| 12:23 |
David Laurila: Here is an unpopular opinion to liven up the chat.
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, we don’t have the Twins to play Job
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| 12:23 |
Billy: Did you guys know MLB changed the conditions of MLBTV so now these playoff games are blacked out in the UK too! Was fun being able to watch baseball for a while I suppose!
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| 12:25 |
Jay Jaffe: I saw people complaining about it on Twitter and that sounds pretty bad. I can’t claim to be an expert on the rights issues in various countries but I presume there’s some way to see those games, though having to pay twice blows.
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| 12:24 |
Zachary: Oscar Gonzalez walking to the plate to the Spongebob Squarepants theme song is so baller
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| 12:24 |
David Laurila: As I mentioned earlier, I was at Progressive Field last weekend. The crowd loved this.
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, that stinks! No local provider got the rights or anything?
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| 12:25 |
Sonny: I’m on the fence about the new playoff size and format but will admit I’m very excited that today feels a bit like the first weekend of March Madness and that’s a great thing for MLB
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| 12:25 |
Jay Jaffe: I hate the new format, sorry
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| 12:26 |
Jay Jaffe: love the 4 games a day but we got that 2x year (Friday and Monday) generally in the previous format
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| 12:27 |
Jay Jaffe: shorter series = more upsets, less rewarding the best teams, more chasing mediocrity. Also to hell with this no-tiebreaker-game business
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| 12:27 |
schooba: How many innings are each of you going?
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| 12:27 |
David Laurila: I can’t answer for Dan and Jay, but being old, I grew up when starters went nine (or more) in the postseason.
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| 12:28 |
Jay Jaffe: depends on how quickly the innings go, but I’m gonna have a 6-year-old and an appliance repairman underfoot from about 3 onward so no guarantees
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| 12:29 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Most surprising roster decision from a wild card team so far?
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| 12:30 |
Jay Jaffe: Starling Marte on the Mets roster is a surprise — more of a surprise than Francisco Álvarez — given his limitations on display the other day. I don’t think anyone’s seen him grip a bat.
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| 12:31 |
David Laurila: In Game 3 of the 1973 ALCS, Baltimore starter Mike Cuellar gave up a walk-off home run to Campy Campaneris in the 11th inning. Ken Holzman went the distance for Oakland.
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| 12:31 |
5 Run Homer: Boy, all those postseason previews weren’t kidding about Cleveland’s defence
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| 12:31 |
David Laurila: With defenders like Straw, Kwan, and Giménez, the Guardians don’t give teams a lot of extra outs.
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| 12:31 |
Zachary: Not a fan of expanded playoffs, but I far prefer a 3-game WC series to the single-game nonsense.
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I prefer fewer teams, but where possible, more games
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| 12:32 |
Scotty: It’s wild how Urias and Biebs both lost a decent amount of velo this year and are still really really good.
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| 12:35 |
Jay Jaffe: not all velocity dips are unintentional. Guys often find they get better movement and command by taking just a bit off, not to mention maintain their stamina.
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| 12:34 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Julio threw 97 as a 19 year old, but his velo was never what made him effective.
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| 12:34 |
Rean Schwarzer: Dan: What is the difference in outcomes bases on a 1 game series vs. a 3 game series? What does zips say?
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: TFW someone picks a handle because they’ll know you answer the question because of it! lol
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| 12:34 |
David Laurila: The strikeout pitch to Owen Miller looked particularly nasty.
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Obviously, the smaller the series, the more crapshooty
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: And the pitcher matchup becomes massive
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| 12:36 |
Carson: How big of a role do you think Kyle Gibson will play for the Phillies?
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| 12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I think Gibson’s one of *the* last players on their roster now.
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| 12:37 |
TarzanJoe: Jay, if you opened a Sabermetrics Museum, what city is it in, what’s your favorite exhibit, and will there be beer and whiskey served there?
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| 12:37 |
Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure either Lawrence, Kansas (where Bill James is from) or Oakland (Moneyball) gets enough visitors. Boston makes some sense but … I have feelings about Boston so I’ll say put it in New York City, baby.
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| 12:38 |
Jay Jaffe: this threading is a challenge LOL
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| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t imagine our sabermetrics museum will have huge financial backing, so Lawrence might be a better place to put it for real estate expenses.
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| 12:39 |
Jay Jaffe: Nobody’s going to Kansas, Dan
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: You know how aquariums or natural history museums sometimes have a habitat? The sabermetrics museum will have an interactive habitat of someone’s mom’s basement.
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| 12:39 |
Jay Jaffe: Maybe Kansas City so ppl could hit the Negro Leagues Museum and get great BBQ
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Of course nobody’s going to Kansas; there’s no sabermetrics museum there!
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| 12:39 |
Billy: UK broadcast is on BT sport, which is like Cable in the US? Most don’t have it. Just the double pay is a bit annoying, and they apparently added the blackout recently.
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| 12:40 |
Christian: I haven’t really heard anything about the Rays all year. What’s their story this season?
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: That stinks. MLB’s revenue from UK streaming is likely pretty small, I would think growing the product would be the larger priority.
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| 12:41 |
Jay Jaffe: I blame the death of the Queen, big MLB fan as we know from The Naked Gun. Charles has no clue
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| 12:41 |
Thom: Waiting to hear some fun facts about postseason games where both SP have the same first name (Bieber vs. McClanahan)
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Whenever there’s a pitcher vs. pitcher first name ballot, the loser should have to change their spelling for a year.
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: The loser here would have to become Shain or Shayne.
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| 12:41 |
troybruno: Sabermetrics museum has to be in GeoCities. only good answer.
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| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: I do miss the lime green BBWAA page which was very GeoCities
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| 12:42 |
Fremulon Insurance: If Bieber loses, he must go by Justin for a year.
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| 12:42 |
Jay Jaffe: How about we build it next door to Murray Chass’ home
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| 12:42 |
Jay Jaffe: and everybody gets a 10% admission discount if they ding-dong-ditch him
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| 12:42 |
Jeremy: Over/under for number of insane baserunning choices by Randy Arozarena today?
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| 12:42 |
David Laurila: A reminder that Arozarena’s steal of home was panic-induced. With two out and two strikes on the batter, all the pitcher needed to do was stay on the rubber, throw a strike down the middle, and the theft would have been nullified and the inning over.
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| 12:44 |
Liz: The international postseason blackout also seems to have been impleemented midseason with no announcement (internet archive shows the old rules as recently as late august) really bad look for MLB
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| 12:44 |
Jay Jaffe: Has anybody tried using a VPN for this?
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| 12:44 |
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Which current franchise will have a decades-long playoff drought a la Mariners and why is it pittsburgh?
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| 12:44 |
David Laurila: I have enough faith in Ben Cherington that it might not be Pittsburgh. Decent chance it will be a team from the NL Central, though.
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| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I think the Pirates have a better situation than the Marlins.
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| 12:47 |
Slew: I’m struggling to develop a strong opinion on the playoff format one way or another. Hard for me to see how one way is materially better or worse. [shrugs shoulders]
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| 12:47 |
Jay Jaffe: i think it’s fair to reserve judgment until watching it play out. Not everyone has to have a blistering hot take. My animosity towards the format began with the loss of the tiebreakers and the lack of a reseeding after the first round. But I can see where a fan of the teams that squeak in will give a thumbs up .
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| 12:47 |
CG11: Arozarena led MLB in caught stealings (12) and was third in outs on the bases (13)!
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| 12:47 |
Liz: The international blackout seems like it’s part of MLB cracking down on people using VPN’s to get around local blackouts. But that’s just going to create annoyed international fans and more people heading toward 🏴☠️ methods to watch because they’re making it more and more of a hassle to watch legit
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| 12:49 |
HappyFunBall: I feel like 99% of visitors to the Sabermetrics museum are doing it virtually, online.
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| 12:50 |
Jay Jaffe: I look forward to showing off my December 2003 proto-JAWS spreadsheet there and I’m guessing Dan probably has parts of his first ZiPS computer ready to put in there too. You have to BE in the presence of those to appreciate the aura, man.
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| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not donating it until we have the space set up! My old Pentium III still operates my stereo.
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| 12:51 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: 43 minutes for 3 innings. <3
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Now I’m trying to figure out if stathead has average game lengths per team
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| 12:55 |
Eh?: There is a 3.0 WAR discrepancy between Taylor Walls’ Fangraphs and Baseball Refe***** (can I say that around here?) WAR totals. That is a huge number!
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| 12:55 |
Jay Jaffe: MIke Petriello (him again!) had a look at this.
OK, so Walls. Great rep. I’ve seen him do great things. I’ve been surprised by the lousy ratings. So last night, I watched about 50 of his plays. I think the main reason is that his misplays are *bad* misplays. Approx 20 plays not made with expected 80% or better success rate.
9 Sep 2022
long story short, i think his throwing ain’t great.
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| 12:55 |
Bad Bill: DL, I don’t follow your “decent chance it will be … from the NL Central” reasoning. With most of the teams there bad, it will only take a brief spike to launch an outsider to the top for a while (e.g. 2020 Reds). What’s your reasoning?
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| 12:55 |
David Laurila: I’m less bullish on the Reds farm system than maybe I should be, and there is little evidence that ownership truly wants to win.
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| 12:57 |
Henry: Jay, what are your feelings about Boston? This is a safe space
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| 12:59 |
Jay Jaffe: The short version is that after going to college in Providence and living there for a couple years afterwards while commuting to Boston for an internship and a girlfriend i decided I didn’t want to move there after my car was stolen there TWICE. Chose NYC where I wouldn’t need a car, and 27 1/2 years later I have no regrets.
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| 12:59 |
Jeremy: Tigers, Royals, Angels, Rockies have to be in the convo as candidates for long playoff droughts
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| 12:59 |
David Laurila: If their new-to-the-big-leagues talent matures as expected, and they add a quality pitcher or two, the Royals could very well win the AL Central within the next handful of seasons.
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| 1:00 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: David’s point: See Nick Krall’s interview from just this week about his 2023 expectations.
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| 1:00 |
David Laurila: Will look for this when I get a chance.
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| 1:00 |
troybruno: why there is no way for me to smash laughing emojis at Murray Chass jokes… what are we doing here in Jotcast
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| 1:01 |
Jay Jaffe:  😂😂😂😂😂 i got you covered
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Cleveland second-shortest games, Rays fourth.
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| 1:01 |
Jay Jaffe: LOL @nyy
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| 1:02 |
Jay Jaffe: Tigers are like, “We’re trying to make this losing quickly. Swing more, Javy”
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| 1:05 |
Rockies owner: The Rockies are definitely winning 94 games next year with no additions. Trust me guys.
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| 1:06 |
Brian: How tall is Gonzalez, if that is 6’2″ I am 6’4… I’m actually 5’11.
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| 1:07 |
5 Run Homer: Jay, what do Jose Ramirez’ HOF chances look like? He’s been a top-five player in baseball since 2016, but still seems just a tad underrated for his career
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| 1:09 |
Jay Jaffe: Wrote about his chances and those of many others in midseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-w…
Since then, Ramirez fell a little short in his end-of-season projection but I do believe he’s in good shape given his current level of production. Dan now has JAWS attached to his ZiPS forecasts and can chime in too
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| 1:09 |
Guest: Why isn’t Will Brennan starting DH over Owen Miller?
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| 1:09 |
David Laurila: Miller has reverse splits, as well as better numbers on the road than at home. That said, Terry Francona and Cleveland’s game-planning staff usually know what they’re doing.
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| 1:10 |
William: Is it really so important to have the games not overlap? I don’t see how it benefits anyone to have the first game of the playoffs start at noon. Baseball is a regional sport anyway, who cares if two games start at the same time.
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| 1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s good.
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| 1:11 |
Joe: At a certain point they’re going to shorten commercial breaks right? RIGHT?
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| 1:11 |
Jay Jaffe: Yeah and the owners will walk through the stands handing out $100 bills to fans, and Rob Manfred will kiss babies.
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| 1:12 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Cleveland really lives and dies on ground ball BABIP.
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| 1:12 |
David Laurila: Tied with Tampa Bay for the eighth-highest GB% in MLB this year.
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| 1:12 |
Joe: As a parent, I enjoy games that end before my child goes to bed
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| 1:12 |
5 Run Homer: It benefits me to have the first game of the playoffs start this early because it means I get to watch playoff baseball all day long
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| 1:14 |
Nick: I love Francona and generally go with the “he knows what he’s doing” mindset, but is there any conceivable situation where you want Miller batting in front of Gimenez? The backbreaking GIDP Miller just hit into makes it look worse, but I think most people who watch Cleveland were already frustrated with that lineup construction.
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| 1:14 |
David Laurila: It is somewhat surprising. Decent chance he’ll be asked about this after the game, although he may not be 100% forthcoming with his answer.
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| 1:15 |
Zander: That Bieber pick for highest Game Score isn’t looking so bad right now.
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| 1:15 |
Jay Jaffe: 16 batters faced through 5 innings, 1 hit, 1 walk, 5 K, 61 pitches, this is the guy in the catalog.
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| 1:17 |
Simon: Bieber’s performance with below average velo is seriously impressive. Can he keep this up? Any historical comps?
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| 1:19 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: How long will the other Shane go? 53 pitches through 5. Not much hit very hard yet.
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| 1:20 |
Jay Jaffe: He hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitches in an outing since returning so i’d be surprised if he went much past that.
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| 1:19 |
Guest: 53 pitches through 5 innings⁉️ Holy guacamole
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| 1:20 |
Zachary: Who is baseball’s greatest Shane ever? Victorino? Mack? Rawley? Reynolds? Bieber has to be quickly climbing through the ranks.
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| 1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I think you’re watching the eventual two top Shanes
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| 1:21 |
Jay Jaffe: I’m old enough to remember when Shane Rawley counted as one of the few good Mariners.
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| 1:21 |
Zander: And McClanahan now through 5 shutout on fewer pitches than Bieber
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| 1:23 |
Jay Jaffe: Siri, who has the lead in the Rays-Guardians game?
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| 1:25 |
David Laurila: Jose Siri has some of the best raw tools in the game.
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| 1:25 |
5 Run Homer: One of these years Siri is gonna have just a massive season, I can feel it
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| 1:26 |
Jay Jaffe: Broadcast just said McClanahan was gonna go like 100-110
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| 1:27 |
Jay Jaffe: (I think i heard that correctly)
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| 1:27 |
muxosk: I wasn’t aware of Shane Rawley but looking at the pitcher stats from the 80s is incredible, the man threw 113 innings with a k/bb of 1 and an era of 3.35.
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| 1:27 |
Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of weird seasons like that in the semi-old days!
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| 1:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Look at Jeff Ballard’s 1989
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| 1:28 |
Dan Szymborski: 18-8, 3.43 with…62 strikeouts in 215 1/3 innings
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| 1:28 |
Dan Szymborski: FIP existing at the time would have made the Why Not? season less fun! lol
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| 1:28 |
Ben Schneider: Jay, have you ever considered a WAR/JAWS adjustment that includes playoff performance?
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| 1:28 |
Jay Jaffe: I’ve played around with some stuff (esp WPA) but never been fully satisfied. I’m content to explain the context and leave some wiggle room to apply some subjective weighting to it
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| 1:29 |
loria estefan: nyc over boston is always the right choice, jay
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: Tom Brady will always be the guy who lost TWO Super Bowls to Eli Freakin’ Manning. Nothing he can do will ever impress me.
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| 1:29 |
David Laurila: Siri lined a ball off the Green Monster this season, Boston’s LF fielded it cleanly and threw a strike to second — and Siri beat the throw for a double. It was a single for nearly every other player in the game. His sprint speed is 100% percentile.
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| 1:29 |
Dan Szymborski: I missed a question earlier, but ZiPS has Jose Ramirez finishing at 59.1 JAWS
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| 1:30 |
Jay Jaffe: That would rank 9th all-time, above the standard, a clear HOFer.
Though the standard is likely to rise a bit with the elections of Beltré and Rolen.
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| 1:30 |
Dan Szymborski: The question is how voters at the time will view his “other” numbers
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| 1:31 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS also has him finishing at 358 homers, 2010 hits
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| 1:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Rolen getting in would help others I think
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| 1:31 |
Jay Jaffe: I agree
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| 1:31 |
Dan Szymborski: But you have a better feel for that than I do Jay
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| 1:31 |
David Laurila: When I was in Cleveland last weekend, Steven Kwan as cited as big key for this series by multiple people.
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| 1:32 |
Dan Szymborski: I figure that Ramirez and Arenado will likely end up being comparable to Rolen, so better him in than out!
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| 1:32 |
5 Run Homer: Arenado and Machado will have probably raised it or be in line to raise it by that time as well
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| 1:32 |
David Laurila: I have a “Who is better?’ poll for Arenado and Machado running on Twitter right now.
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| 1:35 |
Jay Jaffe: They’re all about the same age so the order that they reach the ballot could be negligible but Arenado & Mahado have about 8 points of JAWS on Ramirez right now, and that’s substantial.
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| 1:32 |
Jay Jaffe: and there’s our boy with a go-ahead homer as we speak
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| 1:33 |
Dan Szymborski: To speak of the devil.
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| 1:33 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: I will never lose the salt of seeing Shane Victorino be completely ineffective against RHP as a Dodger, go to the Sox, and finally realizing that hitting lefty is probably not his best move. It’s like he heard me shouting at him from the bleachers the year before!
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| 1:34 |
David Laurila: A few years ago, I asked Terry Francona in a press conference if Jose Ramirez is the most-underrated player in the game. Francona said that everyone in Cleveland knows how good he is.
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| 1:34 |
Mr. Fister: I know he doesn’t beat out JRod or Adley, but I’m surprised how little I ever hear BWJ’s name brought up in ROY discussions. Yes, he has some issues with getting on base, but the guy went 20/30. Where’s the love?
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| 1:35 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s just that Adley/JRod so great and Kwan looks obviously better than him
|
| 1:35 |
Jay Jaffe: Yeah, AL ROY is a 2-man race and the road doesn’t go through Kansas City
|
| 1:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I think David’s an AL ROY voter, so can’t talk about his vote, but kwan’s an easy 3 for me.
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| 1:36 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, not EASY
|
| 1:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Because Kirby
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| 1:41 |
Jay Jaffe: George “Cucumber” Kirby. Can we make that a thing? Might get him some down-ballot ROY support.
|
| 1:37 |
Leland: Never seen a missing a base on a home run challenge!
|
| 1:37 |
Jay Jaffe: That’s a first for me seeing it too
|
| 1:38 |
Guest: Rolen being out is criminal.
|
| 1:38 |
Jay Jaffe: 63.2% last year suggests he’s going in either this year or next.
|
| 1:39 |
David Laurila: I’m guessing TB felt that the runner technically moved back to the 1B side and had to retouch 2B? Not a call that should be made in this particular situation.
|
| 1:39 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Taken in a vacuum, I love the sight of these grown men screaming and thumping their chests over the confirmation that one of their own, did indeed, touch a small rubber square with his foot after his teammate did the much more impressive feat of hitting a home run.
|
| 1:40 |
Jay Jaffe: look, we all enjoy watching grown men whack horsehide spheres with wooden clubs and there’s a whole lot of other weird stuff that goes with it.
|
| 1:41 |
Zachary: I was looking at Aaron Judge prime comps (age 25-30) yesterday and the results were all HOFers, PED guys, and then Dick Allen. Any chance Allen gets in eventually? Or too short of a career?
|
| 1:41 |
Dan Szymborski: He should be in
|
| 1:42 |
Jay Jaffe: He should be in and the arrow points to him getting in eventually… just not quickly enough to satisfy anyone
|
| 1:42 |
Jay Jaffe: as i always say when it comes to Hall of Fame voting, never and forever are too long a time.
|
| 1:42 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: What happens if the challenge is successful? What’s the remedy here?
|
| 1:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Out
|
| 1:43 |
Cleveland Guardians: Bob Feller is rolling over in his grave
|
| 1:43 |
Jay Jaffe: Why, because autograph sales aren’t brisk in the afterlife?
|
| 1:43 |
David Laurila: Dan is right that I have an AL RoY vote. I spent a lot of time on how to order 1-2, and a fair amount of time on who would be #3. There were a lot of good rookies this season.
|
| 1:45 |
Jay Jaffe: I have a vague recollection of my dad planning to take us to a Salt Lake Gulls game that Feller was doing a signing at, sometime in the 1980s, but when he heard they were charging $ we skipped it. Not that we couldn’t have afforded it but it just seemed anathema to the spirit of things. Willie Mays autographed my 1973 Topps card of him for free.
|
| 1:45 |
awards voting: On which date did voting open and how long did you have to submit your vote?
|
| 1:46 |
5 Run Homer: If Rosario were called out, what happens to Ramirez’ homer? Does it just become a solo shot?
|
| 1:46 |
David Laurila: Yes. As for what happens if it had been the third out, I’m less certain. Any rules expects out there?
|
| 1:46 |
Dan Szymborski: They give us a link in late August to a form
|
| 1:46 |
Dan Szymborski: And they’re due before the first wild card game
|
| 1:47 |
Zach: You let Bieber go out for the 8th?
|
| 1:47 |
David Laurila: Without question.
|
| 1:48 |
Dan Szymborski: My favorite part of ballot casting
|
| 1:48 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 1:49 |
Salt Lake Gulls: Vague recollections and fathers go hand in hand
|
| 1:50 |
Jay Jaffe: Newspapers.com tells me Feller made appearances at Gulls games in 1978 and ’82, and that’s just the first few results. I don’t see the part about charging for autographs there, however
|
| 1:50 |
Christian: Really mad at this Merrill guy for looking at some dumb app instead of cool ancient Roman coins
|
| 1:50 |
David Laurila: Bieber is at 88 pitches. He’s gone 100-plus eight times this year with a high of 109.
|
| 1:50 |
Guest: I’d like to say my money was not on Jose Siri for first playoff nuke
|
| 1:51 |
Guest: I have plenty of Feller autographs. He was always generous, talking with the kids and autographing anything they wanted.
|
| 1:52 |
Tstats: When was the last time guys of the same name started a playoff game as adversaries? Shane Beiber and Shane McClanahan?
|
| 1:52 |
Dan Szymborski: hmm
|
| 1:53 |
Chris: General baeball question – I recently saw someone mention baseball has a talent problem (not enough player talent and name recognition compared to other North American sports), and a step to fix that would be to consolidate teams (30 to lets say 24). I am curious your quick thoughts on if baseball has a talent problem.
|
| 1:53 |
Jay Jaffe: Not really. The player pool is larger than ever and players now are both more physically gifted than ever and have greater access to information to give them feedback towards improvement than ever. The game may be losing out on some great athletes because of the high cost of equipment for urban youth but that’s not something that points towards a need to consolidate.
|
| 1:54 |
David Laurila: Austin Hedges, addressing Bieber in the interview that went up here at FG this morning: “The breaking stuff is “Wow!” type stuff. You don’t strike out as many guys as he does without having “Wow!” type stuff.
|
| 1:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I don’t think there’s a talent problem.
|
| 1:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Dang, I don’t have an easy game log of starter vs. starter to check that last one
|
| 1:54 |
Mateo: I think the home runs are labeled backwards on the live score tracker display.
|
| 1:55 |
Ben Clemens: Hey guys, I’m showing up a bit early for the next game because I’ll be disappearing early to get a booster
|
| 1:55 |
Ben Clemens: Just in time for the most inevitable outcome in baseball, McClanahan v Hedges K
|
| 1:57 |
Jeremy: Is there any research on whether the times through the order penalty is lower for pitchers who’ve been dominant that day?
|
| 1:58 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s generally just lower for better pitchers. You might be able to withstand the deterioration of your top starter from (and i’m pulling numbers out of the air) a .230 wOBA to .250 to .280 as he goes through a third time but a guy who adds 50 points while starting at .285 is a different matter
|
| 1:58 |
Carson: Would you say there’s more of a marketing problem than a talent problem? The average person has no idea who Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola is, and I feel like they should. (Disclaimer: I don’t know how much of the marketing is up to the team vs the league)
|
| 2:00 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s partly a marketing problem and partly an access-and-distribution problem and partly just the result of a proliferation of entertainment options that include streaming, e-sports, and so on.
|
| 1:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Hey Bencle
|
| 1:58 |
Jay Jaffe: Hey Ben, welcome to the party
|
| 1:59 |
Ben Clemens: Hey guys. Pretty quick one so far huh?
|
| 2:00 |
Chad Young: Hi all – I am also supposedly here for the second game, but I am also a Cleveland native and wearing my Larry Doby jersey right now, so I’ll be focused on the first game a bit longer.
|
| 2:01 |
Jay Jaffe: Right on, Chad! On the Feller topic I was just about to mention Luke Epplin’s Our Team, about the 1948 champs, with a lot of focus on Doby. Have you read the book?
|
| 2:01 |
5 Run Homer: Shane Bieber’s slider is so cool
|
| 2:01 |
Ben Clemens: Bieber’s cutter/slider/curveball spectrum is really fun to watch
|
| 2:02 |
David Laurila: Batters went 6 for 20 with a double and two home runs in the eighth inning versus Bieber in the regular season.
|
| 2:02 |
Chad Young: I haven’t, Jay, but I am adding it to my list right now. I have a Feller jersey, as well; my only two Cleveland jerseys. But I’ll take any opportunity to bring Doby more attention – he doesn’t get nearly enough talk, IMO
|
| 2:04 |
Ben Clemens: I would have loved to see a complete game in this one but I’ll settle for seeing a Paredes postseason hit
|
| 2:04 |
Tstats: Hats off to Shane freaking Bieber
|
| 2:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Was a terrific start
|
| 2:04 |
Prodigal Sons: A Padres Guardians World Series would be quite the homecoming
|
| 2:04 |
Simon: I hated the Lindor trade for Cleveland at the time, but, man, seems like Gimenez and Rosario and Central Division title is a pretty good return…
|
| 2:04 |
Chad Young: I think it was hard for a lot of us Cleveland fans to get behind it, even for those of us who knew it made sense. I liked the return but wished they had gotten some non-MI. Once again, the Cleveland Front Office proved to be smarter than me.
|
| 2:05 |
Chad Young: I should say, I liked the value they got in the return but not the specific players – at the time I felt like it was a “right size, wrong shape” situation, but Gimenez has been more than I expected
|
| 2:05 |
Jay Jaffe: Glad to see the deal working out for both sides. Lindor had a hell of a season for the Mets
|
| 2:06 |
Chad Young: Agreed. Great example of a win-win trade that both orgs would happily do again.
|
| 2:06 |
Tstats: Do I switch to the Cards/Phils or stay to watch Clase?
|
| 2:06 |
Dan Szymborski: gotta get closure on the one-run game first
|
| 2:06 |
Ben Clemens: My Cards homer view: switch. My ‘let’s watch good baseball’ view: maybe switch for the bottom of the first?
|
| 2:07 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like it’s 7-0!
|
| 2:07 |
Ben Clemens: but like, this game is very close right now
|
| 2:07 |
ProfessorRossEforp: Why do the Mets get credit for the deal working out for them when Lindor was slated to be a free agent last year?
|
| 2:09 |
Jay Jaffe: A fair point, to be sure. It did give them the inside track on signing him and he signed before hitting free agency. Who knows how much he’d make coming off this season in the open market?
|
| 2:10 |
Ben Clemens: To further Jay’s point, trading for a player grants you an exclusive negotiating window, and it’s pretty clear that teams value that. Goldschmidt, Lindor, Betts… there are a lot of players signed post-trade that have worked out very well for their teams without anyone else getting a bite at the apple
|
| 2:08 |
5 Run Homer: Also Clase rules and if you’re not gonna watch one of the best relievers in baseball why are you watching the postseason at all
|
| 2:08 |
ProfessorRossEforp: I am a Cleveland fan and never really looked up Doby’s stats. I was aware of his importance in the game, but was not aware how freakin’ awesome he was at baseball.
|
| 2:09 |
Chad Young: Yeah, a legitimate star.
|
| 2:11 |
Circa 2014: Jose Quintana is your game 1 starter
|
| 2:12 |
Ben Clemens: I’m sure he followed a perfectly normal arc to get here, Mr. Time Traveler
|
| 2:13 |
ProfessorRossEforp: I have always assumed the times through the order penalty had at least as much to do with fatigue as it did batters getting comfortable with them?
|
| 2:14 |
Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a combination of fatigue, familiarity, and predictability. It’s tougher to fool the same hitter three times in one game by different means.
|
| 2:13 |
Chad Young: Quintana is tied for 9th in the NL in fWAR and 10th in FIP (100+ IP). His FIP is tied with Sandy Alcantara. I would not have guessed that.
|
| 2:13 |
Ben Clemens: If you told me in 2014 that Jose Quintana would be a good pitcher in 2022, I’d say yep, sure, he’s great right now
|
| 2:14 |
Zachary: Quintana starting game 1 is such a silly thing, but of course it’ll work out because Cardinals.
|
| 2:14 |
Ben Clemens: He’s their best starter, so from that standpoint I think it makes a lot of sense.
|
| 2:14 |
Ben Clemens: From a ‘how do you build your team to where a midseason acquisition from the Pirates is your best pitcher?’ standpoint, yeah
|
| 2:15 |
The Final Boss: Do love the ESPN announcers absolutely leaning into how refreshing the Guardians and Rays are not hitting home runs, game proceeds to be 100% home runs.
|
| 2:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Stepping out for a minute, gota reset my router/modem one more time. Don’t know what’s going on on my end
|
| 2:16 |
Ben Clemens: My number one criteria for announcers is that they be enthusiastic and descriptive, and I think both groups have been good on that front
|
| 2:16 |
Ben Clemens: (one in half an inning that I’ve only half listened to, to be fair)
|
| 2:17 |
Ben Clemens: I truly hope that we get a “They’re not booing, they’re saying Noooooot” in this game
|
| 2:17 |
Chad Young: I think Glanville has been really good. I haven’t seen him do many games but I’ve found him to be informed and interesting today.
|
| 2:18 |
David Laurila: Guardians-Rays Game One has been outstanding so far. Great to start the postseason with a close, well-played contest.
|
| 2:18 |
Ben Clemens: I will say, “What do you know about Wheeler?” is not a question that you should first answer with “He’s from New York”
|
| 2:18 |
Finnegan’s Seam-shifted Wake: Glanville does Cubs games occasionally and has been quite good there too
|
| 2:20 |
Joseph: Thoughts on Cleveland going to Clase to end the eighth instead of Karinchak when Clase hasn’t had a 1+ inning save all year? Just a product of October baseball requiring your best performances from your best guys?
|
| 2:21 |
Chad Young: Clase not going more than 1 often is more about the structure of the pen than his ability. He is very efficient with his pitches and I suspect we’ll see this a lot more in October, especially when Tito tries to shorten games with less stellar starting pitching.
|
| 2:20 |
Jay Jaffe: Bring your Clase-r in for multiple innings
|
| 2:21 |
Tstats: The average MLB HR Ev is 104? that seems so much higher than I expected
|
| 2:21 |
Ben Clemens: I wondered if this was an artifact of the dead ball, but not really. Average EV on homers has been very stable between 103 and 104 every year since we’ve had data
|
| 2:21 |
David Laurila: Doug Glanville is great on the Starkville podcast. Next to FanGraphs Audio and Effectively Wild, arguably the best baseball pod.
|
| 2:22 |
Jake Albrecht: I’m sure this is a crazy complaint but I’m actually recording these games so I could theoretically watch all of them later by fast forwarding through the commercials and I’m annoyed they’re spoiling what’s happening in the other one with that constant box in the top right corner.
|
| 2:22 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s increasingly difficult to avoid spoilers if you’re trying to time-shift ballgames. You have zero chance of doing so in the postseason if you’re watching a game.
|
| 2:23 |
Martin: So mlb.tv has updated its blackout policy for the second time this week. Now reversing the global blackout for all the countries that wont have tv broadcasts except they are still scrambling to fix the website so you still cant watch the games even if the FAQ says you are eligible.
|
| 2:23 |
bosoxforlife: If you offered me a wager in April which would be more likely, Judge hitting 62 HR’s or Pujols hitting 24 I would have put the .ranch on Judge/
|
| 2:24 |
Ben Clemens: The good news is, you’d still have your ranch! It was a push.
|
| 2:24 |
David Laurila: From today’s Austin Hedges interview:
“The most unique pitch in all of baseball is [Emmanuel] Clase’s fastball. When you can throw a pitch at 98 to 102 with that much movement, with that much cut… and there’s the command, too…. It’s one of those unique pitches where you could tell the hitter what’s coming and he’s still going to have a hard time hitting it.”
|
| 2:24 |
Chad Young: I’ll be interested to see what the final numbers look like, but Doug Eddings has had a very odd strike zone today.
|
| 2:24 |
Ben Clemens: It’s all OVER the place
|
| 2:25 |
Zander: Doesn’t Eddings rate as the most inaccurate of any ump that’s assigned to call balls/strikes in the postseason? I think I saw a graphic somewhere
|
| 2:25 |
Chad Young: It depends what source you trust, but I saw something similar
|
| 2:26 |
Jay Jaffe: Clase just looks utterly unhittable
|
| 2:26 |
Chad Young: I agree but as a Guards fan, I couldn’t bring myself to say it until it was done
|
| 2:26 |
Jay Jaffe: Ballgame to the Cleves
|
| 2:26 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: How is it even physically possible to throw a 99+ cutter? Like, the physics of it don’t make sense.
|
| 2:26 |
bosoxforlife: Look at the movement on that 99 mph pitch!
|
| 2:27 |
Ben Clemens: I like bragging, so I’ll mention that I wrote about how Clase was the best like 10 innings into his major league career
|
| 2:27 |
Ben Clemens: Ha I lied, he had thrown 38 pitches at the time
|
| 2:27 |
Ben Clemens: I didn’t know he’d be this good but it’s impossible to see that cutter and not go ‘what the heck was that?’
|
| 2:27 |
Chad Young: There have been a lot of fun things about watching the Guards this year, but seeing Clase every day is near the top of the list.
|
| 2:28 |
Zachary: Bieber -> Jose -> Clase. Just how they drew it up.
|
| 2:30 |
Ben Clemens: Dylan Carlson turning into a plus defensive centerfielder was nowhere at all on my expectations for this year
|
| 2:30 |
David Laurila: With Ben and Chad in, I’m out. Was a fun game to chat. Will be a enjoyable postseason.
|
| 2:30 |
Ben Clemens: Have a great day, David
|
| 2:30 |
5 Run Homer: This is a very red series
|
| 2:31 |
Ben Clemens: Quick pet peeve, and I’m sorry to grump during this fun chat
|
| 2:31 |
Ben Clemens: Really, they put Castellanos behind Bryce Harper to give him lineup protection?
|
| 2:31 |
Ben Clemens: That’s your final answer?
|
| 2:32 |
Simp: Can someone tell me what a fangraph is?
|
| 2:33 |
Jay Jaffe: hearing Michael Kay do pbp for a non-Yankees game is a weird thing
|
| 2:34 |
Jay Jaffe: i realize it’s been happening all season with ESPN’s Sunday alt-casts but I didn’t go near those
|
| 2:34 |
Ben Clemens: A wise decision
|
| 2:35 |
5 Run Homer: Is it just me or are the on-field mics turned way up for this game
|
| 2:35 |
Ben Clemens: They sound that way to me too, and in fact Kay has already remarked on it during the game
|
| 2:35 |
Tstats: They were the best chaotic baseball broadcast. If you like Manningcast this was even worse
|
| 2:35 |
Jay Jaffe: i don’t watch football except for the Super Bowl and I’d chew a limb off to escape a Manningcast.
|
| 2:36 |
Ben Clemens: I’m actually a big Manningcast fan, but I find Peyton funny. If you don’t, yeah, it’s not gonna be great
|
| 2:37 |
60’s Music: Cardinals cornering the market with Dylan and Donovan
|
| 2:37 |
Ben Clemens: wow, no love for Lenyn Sosa
|
| 2:38 |
Ben Clemens: Oh no, first discussion of reverse splits, and they’re crediting it to his slider??
|
| 2:38 |
Ben Clemens: That seems…. unlikely
|
| 2:39 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, back
|
| 2:40 |
Bunk: I feel like people are trying to replicate the Manningcast but are doing a poor job. Kay and A-rod aren’t great and the UFC tried something similar and it was terrible. I’m not a fan of the Manningcast but I understand the appeal. Copycats are usually always worse.
|
| 2:41 |
Chad Young: I think part of the issue is that the Manningcast is a really unique thing and no one has come close to matching it. Peyton’s personality and their relationship, plus their undeniable football knowledge all factor in. I am not sure there is a reasonable baseball comparison.
|
| 2:41 |
Jay Jaffe: Much rather have a Nerdcast than a KayRodCast. Somebody fluent in Statcast can tell me much more about what I need to know than “even leads are better than odd leads”
|
| 2:41 |
Ben Clemens: I’m heading out, to be continued later on when I’m back
|
| 2:42 |
Jay Jaffe: See you, Ben! I’m not around for much longer myself but I’ll stay til the top of the hour
|
| 2:43 |
i read fangraphs: I mean, surely we are all the wrong audience for Kay-Rod. If you are super casual and still think of ARod first when you think of “baseball player,” him broadcasting could be a draw over Eduardo Rodriguez and David Cone. Besides, the audience of the nerdcast is largely sated by Rodriguez and Cone, so it’s not like a nerd cast would really in more people relative to Kayrod
|
| 2:43 |
Jay Jaffe: Eduardo Perez, not Eduardo Rodriguez
|
| 2:44 |
Jay Jaffe: And yes, Cone’s fluency with analytics is a draw, and I probably watched more Sunday Night Baseball because of him than in years past.
|
| 2:44 |
Dan Szymborski: A-Rod was fine in the first couple of postseason when we got him in *very* limited stints
|
| 2:45 |
Dan Szymborski: But he got overexposed very quickly. I think he tries too hard to make a Big Point, because it always comes out absolutely ridiculous
|
| 2:45 |
Jay Jaffe: Indeed
|
| 2:45 |
Jay Jaffe: And there’s Michael Kay forgetting the best-of-three Wild Card round from two years ago
|
| 2:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to fault anyone for forgetting the weird 2020 playoff format!
|
| 2:47 |
Chad Young: In honor of his walk, Bryson Stott had a quietly solid second half, with a 106 wRC+. he doesn’t appear to be a great defensive SS so he needs to keep up that level of offense (or better) to be productive for the Phils.
|
| 2:48 |
Jay Jaffe:
Time of game: 2:17
That’s the shortest postseason game since 1999 NLDS G2 — HOU at ATL, 2:13
starting lineups from that one   7 Oct 2022
|
| 2:49 |
Jay Jaffe: that’s with regards to Rays-Guardians
|
| 2:51 |
Chad Young: Those two teams play quick games in general, but per the Statcast Pitch Tempo stat, among pitchers with 500 timed pitches or more (213 total) Bieber is the 6th fastest worker. McClanahan is closer to average (103rd), but not slow either.
|
| 2:52 |
i read fangraphs: Craig Biggio’s career is amazing to me. “yeah our 37 year old 2B who came up as a catcher and has exactly 8 appearances in LF in the past 12 years? yeah, he can be our starting CF”
|
| 2:53 |
Jay Jaffe: B-Ref has him 100 runs below average in the field but still worth 65 WAR over the course of his career, and only dipped below 2.0 WAR once before turning 40.
|
| 2:54 |
Jay Jaffe: The CF experiment didn’t last more than a season and a half.
|
| 2:56 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: How do you think the Angels feel about Quintana’s success this season?
|
| 2:56 |
Jay Jaffe: I think the Angels just want to feel SOMETHING but are numb to pain.
|
| 2:56 |
Chad Young: You would think they are used to this by now.
|
| 2:57 |
Bryson Stott: He’s from Vegas. You can’t walk out of the desert
|
| 2:57 |
Chad Young: So, for all the Kay talk here earlier, that simple “for those new to this, WAR is wins above replacement and 6 is really good” was actually pretty well done. Then Rodriguez says, “he’s a baseball player that’s for sure.”
|
| 2:59 |
Jay Jaffe: 
|
| 2:58 |
5 Run Homer: A-Rod’s right though, he is a baseball player
|
| 2:59 |
Chad Young: At least he said something that isn’t wholly inaccurate, even if it was useless.
|
| 2:59 |
Christian: Rodriguez also made sure to mention earlier that getting 3 runs could be important to winning the game
|
| 2:59 |
Jay Jaffe: Keys to the game
• outscore
• score more
• 3 runs = good
|
| 3:00 |
ARoid: Kay said that ‘timely hits’ are part of what makes up that 6 WAR
|
| 3:01 |
Chad Young: Yeah, I guess I would say that I am not asking for perfection – I appreciate that he is looking at something like WAR and actually taking a moment to make it mean something to fans who don’t know it/understand it.
|
| 3:01 |
Simon: Remember Brian Jordan (lineups above)? We always hear about Bo, but Jordan played Safety for the ATL Hawks AND had a career slash line of .282/.353/.455 over a 20 year career. That’s nuts!
|
| 3:02 |
Jay Jaffe: Elite defender, too. +153 runs via B-Ref.
|
| 3:01 |
Steven: Jay, you forgot that Arod recommends having an odd-run lead over an even-run lead
|
| 3:02 |
Christian: By timely he obviously meant “while the game is being played.”
If you get the hits before or after the game they’re not going to help you WAR at al!
|
| 3:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup, after the game is the worst time.
|
| 3:02 |
Chad Young: This is because hits before the game contribute to momentum and could help you in the game.
|
| 3:03 |
KJ: How do the Angels fans feel about Quintana? What about the Cubs fans watching Q good again for the Cardinals and Cease on the White Sox? My soul hurts.
|
| 3:04 |
Jay Jaffe: Quintana was originally signed by the Mets, and then released and passed through the hands of the Yankees and let go. I wonder how they feel?
|
| 3:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Prevnar 20 sounds like a deadly virus made by a Bond supervillain
|
| 3:04 |
Portlandus: Quintana has played for 6 different teams. That’s probably not a record for a Game 1 starter, but it seems fairly high.
|
| 3:04 |
Chad Young: Scherzer is at 5!
|
| 3:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Now I’m looking for Game 1 starters lol
|
| 3:06 |
Zwak: How much more valuable would a pitcher be if they had excellent ventriloquist skills? Being able to throw your voice to sound like it’s coming from the ump seems like something teams should be developing
|
| 3:07 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Jose Lima was at 5 also when he took game 1 for the dodgers in 2004. Don’t ask me why I remember that Jose Lima was the game 1 starter in the 2004 NLDS.
|
| 3:08 |
Jay Jaffe: because from 1989-2008 his start was the only postseason win for the Dodgers. Remember it vividly
|
| 3:08 |
Chad Young: I immediately thought of Dennis Martinez, who started game 1 of the 1995 ALCS, but he was only on his 3rd team despite being 41 years old!
|
| 3:08 |
Dan Szymborski: David Wells was at 6 his last game 1
|
| 3:08 |
Dan Szymborski: and it’s 8 if you count stints (it was his second stint with Yankees and he had two stints with Blue Jays)
|
| 3:09 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Edit: Misremembering, he putched game 3
|
| 3:09 |
Jay Jaffe: (Lima)
|
| 3:10 |
Dan Szymborski: Tommy John fifth team as an Angel
|
| 3:11 |
Zachary: The Phillies are at -34 DRS/-36 OAA on the season. Would they be the worst defensive team to win the World Series in the analytics era?
|
| 3:11 |
Chad Young: By OAA yes, and by a lot – they are the 8th worst defensive team in the history of OAA (2016 is the first year on the Statcast leaderboard)
|
| 3:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Happ 2018 was sixth team
|
| 3:13 |
Chad Young: In fact, I can’t see any record of a WS winning team with negative OAA
|
| 3:15 |
Chad Young: 2016 Cubs: +43 2017 Astros: +4 2018 Red Sox: +2 2019 Nationals: +32 2020 Dodgers: +11 2021 Atlanta: +5
|
| 3:13 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: “Lima Time” was….uhhh… an era for the Dodgers.
|
| 3:13 |
Jay Jaffe: OK folks, i’m going to ice my elbow. Dan and Chad and friends will take you from here. Enjoy the rest of the day!
|
| 3:15 |
Christian: Jay, this is the reason we’ve got to get away from max-effort only pitching. Its putting our best baseball writers at too much risk!
|
| 3:16 |
Think Quick: There are two brothers on separate teams in the MLB Playoffs. Name em
|
| 3:16 |
Chad Young: Man, off the bat I thought Arenado had destroyed that
|
| 3:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Matons
|
| 3:17 |
Chad Young: 103.7 off the bat, .840 xBA, 388 foot, 1 out
|
| 3:17 |
Chad Young: The Nolas, right?
|
| 3:18 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: The Diaz brothers, right?
|
| 3:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Good Mountain Goats song
|
| 3:19 |
Christian: Mercy for the,
|
| 3:19 |
Thom: 2 Naylor brothers on the Guardians too!
|
| 3:19 |
Chad Young: Only one Gurriel in the post-season
|
| 3:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot of brothers
|
| 3:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Lourdes missed the roster
|
| 3:20 |
Chad Young: Lourdes was left off the roster for this round. They could face off next round if the Jays advance and he heals up
|
| 3:22 |
Chad Young: Lourdes/Yuli is our best chance for a brother vs. brother game, but Josh/Bo is our best shot for one brother to pinch run for another.
|
| 3:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Bryson “Butters” Stott
|
| 3:23 |
Meg Rowley: Well hello chatters
|
| 3:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Hey Meg!
|
| 3:23 |
muxosk: Rex Brothers has not played since 2021 not sure why everyone is naming random players here.
|
| 3:23 |
Chad Young: Welcome, Meg!
|
| 3:23 |
Christian: Hi Meg! Any important thoughts on brothers?
|
| 3:24 |
Meg Rowley: Apologies for the delay – I was editing a Top 100 Update that should be going live shortly
|
| 3:24 |
Meg Rowley: I have a brother and I like him quite a bit
|
| 3:24 |
Brooks: Meg how are you feeling at T-40 minutes?
|
| 3:25 |
Meg Rowley: Like I had forgotten how miserable your favorite team actually being in the postseason is!
|
| 3:24 |
Dan Szymborski: My sister Meg is a different Meg because she’d have a less positive answer.
|
| 3:25 |
Boomer Baseball: Segura moving Bohm to third is oddly satisfying
|
| 3:26 |
Meg Rowley: Analysis: this is too much red in one game, should consider alternatives imo.
|
| 3:26 |
johndarc: Is the last few minutes of the latest Fangraphs Audio broken for anybody else? Ben and Dan get cut off mid discussion about the Royals.
|
| 3:27 |
Meg Rowley: Will ask Dylan!
|
| 3:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Uh oh, did we?
|
| 3:26 |
Dan Szymborski: And A-Rod said something I agree with!
|
| 3:27 |
i read fangraphs: The Phils have those perfectly good baby blue unis, and they should wear them for the next two games
|
| 3:27 |
Chad Young: I’d like to see something happen here soon cause I am planning to switch to the Mariners when it’s time
|
| 3:28 |
Yo-Yo: Quintana the best acquisition at the deadline for what he cost?
|
| 3:28 |
Dan Szymborski: In results so far, that may be right
|
| 3:28 |
johndarc: Do you think Ben Lindbergh would stop pretending to be a neutral non rooting fan if the Angels/Ohtani made the playoffs? At some point, if you watch the Angels all the time and root for them to win, you’re a fan.
|
| 3:29 |
Meg Rowley: The thing to remember is that the moment Ohtani is on another team, Ben will be invested in that team succeeding. It really is an Ohtani (and to a lesser extent, Trout) thing.
|
| 3:29 |
Joseph: phillies and cardinals should both wear the baby blues tomorrow to make it even more confusing
|
| 3:29 |
Christian: When I submitted my Grand Junctions Chubs form they also asked for recommended colors and I just said anything but red or blue.
|
| 3:29 |
Meg Rowley: Chaos ball, I like it.
|
| 3:29 |
Dan Szymborski: That day internet was fighting with the Grand Junctions Rockies was the best.
|
| 3:29 |
5 Run Homer: Phillies should be maroon and baby blue full time
|
| 3:30 |
johndarc: So then we should root for Ohtani to join the Yankees so Ben can embrace the personal history he tries to hard to escape.
|
| 3:30 |
Meg Rowley: I really don’t think it’s that difficult for him? He doesn’t think there is anything wrong with writers liking teams, it just hasn’t stuck for him.
|
| 3:30 |
Dan Szymborski: I agree. If you have these, how are you not wearing them?
|
| 3:30 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 3:32 |
Ben Schneider: What do Phillies fans think of Bohm? Do they still believe he can hit?
|
| 3:32 |
Meg Rowley: I think the fielding is the biggest stressor…
|
| 3:32 |
Dan Szymborski: “Hey, you know how we have maroon, this color that we’re associate with and has become iconic?”
|
| 3:32 |
Dan Szymborski: “Yup.”
|
| 3:32 |
Dan Szymborski: “Let’s go red and sometimes red and blue.”
|
| 3:32 |
Dan Szymborski: “It’s fresh! I like it!”
|
| 3:32 |
johndarc: Bohm has fun walkup music. I need him to succeed.
|
| 3:32 |
Meg Rowley: Almost an entire team of DHs playing out of position
|
| 3:32 |
Christian: Meg if you could redesign a team with any colors what team/color combo would it be?
|
| 3:33 |
Meg Rowley: Any of the red/blue teams with some pink.
|
| 3:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I want to see more green and yellow in things
|
| 3:34 |
Chad Young: I really wish Cleveland had done something more creative than keep everything the same except the prefix on their name.
|
| 3:34 |
Chad Young: They had a real chance to do something unique but nah
|
| 3:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Cleveland Gwardians
|
| 3:34 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 3:34 |
Joey Bam Bam: Who poses a bigger threat for NYY in the ALDS ?
|
| 3:35 |
Meg Rowley: Cleveland I think – both are streaky scorers, but man is that bullpen good and as we saw today, good starters!
|
| 3:34 |
Christian: Dan my issue is that I want more green/yellow and orange in unis, but that feels rude to the two teams who were brave enough to do it first
|
| 3:34 |
Ben Schneider: Are you surprised the Mariners are carrying three catchers?
|
| 3:35 |
Chad Young: The Guardians did this too and it makes a ton of sense. You don’t need nearly as many pitchers in a three-game series so giving yourself some added flex to hit/run for a C without risk makes sense to me.
|
| 3:35 |
Dan Szymborski: You can have some green and yellow without just copying the A’s
|
| 3:35 |
Jeremy: Phillies fan here. We don’t think Bohm can’t field and we’re worried he’s an empty singles hitter.
|
| 3:35 |
Dan Szymborski: Besides, I’m not pleased with the A’s since they’ve moved away from using the gold alternates
|
| 3:36 |
i read fangraphs: Life would be better if the Phillies got some hot pink unis
|
| 3:36 |
Meg Rowley: I’m worried he can’t field, at least not consistently.
|
| 3:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d love for a team to have an alternate that they use JUST to complete sweeps.
|
| 3:36 |
Dan Szymborski: Or an alternate that’s *just* for elimination games in the playoffs
|
| 3:37 |
Jeremy: *think Bohm can’t field
|
| 3:38 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Are any teams NOT carrying 13 pitchers? I guess it makes more sense to rock with 12 arms in the Wild Card instead of the DS/CS.
|
| 3:38 |
Meg Rowley: I think Seattle only has 12
|
| 3:39 |
Chad Young: Cleveland has 12, too, and honestly I think it is at least one too many
|
| 3:39 |
Brian: Meg, much like CLE this year. Fangraphs continues to exceed all expectations. Consider this a free plug from an add free member who will probably never not renew.
|
| 3:39 |
Meg Rowley: Oh hey thanks! We have a good group and I’m glad you’re pleased!
|
| 3:39 |
Portlandus: 6 colors in the rainbow. Each team should be given one of them as a primary and another as a secondary and forced to design new jerseys using those colors.
|
| 3:39 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s Roy G. Biv. Roy Biv is his father.
|
| 3:40 |
Chad Young: Rays carrying 12 pitchers, as well.
|
| 3:40 |
Molina’s Underrated: Can’t run on him. How do you quantify that?
|
| 3:40 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Dan, Indigo doesn’t exist, it’s a conspiracy by Big Palette to artificially boost the purple market.
|
| 3:41 |
Zachary: I understand thinking 12 pitchers may be too many, but does a team really need a 6-man bench for a three-game series?
|
| 3:41 |
Chad Young: I think you can do more with the bench. PH more, PR more, take more advantage of key situations.
|
| 3:42 |
Christian: Y’all we’ve been in this chat for nearly 4 hours and have yet to celebrate the death of the Zombie runner for the next month. It’s a small consolation but lord am I excited for real extra innings
|
| 3:42 |
Meg Rowley: Agreed, though you’ve officially jinxed this STL/PHI game ending in nine
|
| 3:43 |
EonADS: Am I weird to feel that the Guardians as they’re currently constructed remind me of the 2014 Royals? Put the ball in play and run, play great defense, great bullpen? The only really difference is that the Guardians have a higher SP quality compared to the ’14 Royals.
|
| 3:44 |
Chad Young: I think this team is better than that one – the 2014 Royals had a 92 wRC+; these Guards have a 99. That is a pretty significant difference. The concept is similar, though, for sure.
|
| 3:43 |
Ben Schneider: Quintana done, what a run with the Cards
|
| 3:44 |
Designated Runner: Did Terence Gore or Billy Hamilton find there way onto a playoff roster this year?
|
| 3:44 |
Meg Rowley: That’s a good excuse to remind everyone that Jason has the playoff rosters on RosterResource now
|
| 3:44 |
Meg Rowley: They’ll update with each round.
|
| 3:44 |
Brian: Does anyone actually like the zombie runner in extras?
|
| 3:47 |
Chad Young: I like the name Zombie runner. And honestly, I don’t hate the rule itself. I thought I would, but it hasn’t led to as many boring innings as I expected, and I understand the desire from players and others around the game to not play forever.
|
| 3:45 |
Meg Rowley: I think some players do, actually.
|
| 3:45 |
Meg Rowley: But it’s not for me, even when folks remember, as you did, not to call it the ghost runner.
|
| 3:48 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Didn’t follow the Cards closely this year – how long did the Hicks in the Rotation experiment last?
|
| 3:48 |
Chad Young: He made 7 starts from April 21 to May 24, then hit the IL and that was that. He had an opener appearance after that but no more true starts.
|
| 3:49 |
Christian: Meg, did having to watch Russell Wilson last night in the most pathetic game ever played help or hurt your anxieties going into today?
|
| 3:49 |
EonADS: I really want a different way to shorten extras without including revenants. Baseball and slipshod necromancy do not belong together.
|
| 3:49 |
Meg Rowley: It didn’t really move them one way or the other – I don’t wish Russ ill or anything, but whether or not he cooks doesn’t alter my mood anymore. I am free.
|
| 3:50 |
Brian: I understand Chad, I guess I would just prefer ties after 14 or so innings (flexible on the #). What’s wrong with saying, today we were equally good?
|
| 3:51 |
Chad Young: As a soccer fan, I have no issue with ties, though I do think it would be weird to see a baseball game end and have neither team doing a high-five line out on the field.
|
| 3:51 |
Dan Szymborski: The ball’s been double dejuiced!
|
| 3:53 |
Brian: Have the teams high-five each other, Its not like the players lack sportsmanship.
|
| 3:53 |
Ben Schneider: Americans hate ties on principle. For what it’s worth, the KBO calls ties after 12 innings
|
| 3:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I definitely hate ties on principle
|
| 3:53 |
Chad Young: Ties feel wrong in baseball, for sure
|
| 3:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I understand it in football because, well, playing football is brutal physically
|
| 3:54 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Is Tommy Edman the most underrated player in baseball these days?
|
| 3:54 |
Meg Rowley: I never know what to make of most underrated but he’s a good player!
|
| 3:55 |
Yo-Yo: Edman is quietly one of MLB’s best stealers, Realmuto is one of the best throwers. Let’s see it!
|
| 3:55 |
Meg Rowley: Give the people what they want!
|
| 3:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Could it be Andres Gimenez? I’m not sure what his name draw is among the average fan.
|
| 3:55 |
Meg Rowley: Yeah, he’s been excellent
|
| 3:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I apparently coined zombie runners and I *still* hate them
|
| 3:56 |
CG11: The Guardians used 9 batters, 1 starter, and 1 reliever to win. When’s the last time we saw a postseason victory like that? No pinch hitters/runners, no defensive replacements, no excessive pitching changes. Just stuck to their best players.
|
| 3:56 |
Dan Szymborski: not sure, maybe a good thing for whoever’s doing the gamer for it! lol
|
| 3:57 |
Meg Rowley: Can’t believe the Mariners are about to play postseason baseball?
|
| 3:59 |
Dan Szymborski: It is four of the clock, so it is time for me to sign off this chat!
|
| 4:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Enjoy the rest of the games, fair FanGraphs denizen!
|
| 4:00 |
Chad Young: Farewell, Dan!
|
| 4:01 |
Brian: The return to playoff baseball in Seattle should produce an amazing atmosphere for this game..
|
| 4:01 |
Chad Young: This one is in Toronto but I am really hoping to attend a game in Seattle next week – think it would be incredible
|
| 4:04 |
Zachary: What a great story Zach Wheeler is. I thought he was cooked at age 27 after all the years of injuries. Then he rattles off five straight borderline-ace seasons.
|
| 4:04 |
Chad Young: and the last two are the best so far. super impressive.
|
| 4:05 |
Sharps: only able to follow the game via the chat and Gameday, it has been looking like this is a case of both pitchers being super on rather than weak hitting. Does that track?
|
| 4:06 |
Chad Young: I think so. Both seem to be hitting spots and throwing well. Neither has been dominant the way we saw in the first game, but both have been very good
|
| 4:09 |
Christian: Any idea why they have the ball trail on this broadcast and not the others?
|
| 4:10 |
Chad Young: No idea, and I don’t like it.
|
| 4:11 |
EonADS: Hey Chad, as a fellow Guardians fan, do you think that Gs-Ball will become more common once the shift gets banned? It seems to me like death by a thousand grounders would appeal to teams.
|
| 4:12 |
Chad Young: I do think we will see more teams prioritize putting the ball in play, but I also don’t think it is that easy to just replicate this – this has been multiple years of targeting and developing players with a specific skill set for putting the ball in play.
|
| 4:11 |
Meg Rowley: (sorry folks, my landlord stopped by and is asking some landscaping questions, brb)
|
| 4:13 |
Tynan: The ball trail makes sense for replays, but what the heck is it doing on the live broadcast??
|
| 4:13 |
Christian: Same. I don’t know if there’s a more reasonable option that would be more transparent and not neon, but this definitely doesn’t work
|
| 4:13 |
Guest: Wow I hate the ball trail
|
| 4:13 |
Chad Young: Yeah, we have a consensus, the trail is bad. kill the trail.
|
| 4:13 |
Tstats: Whuch broadcast has a ball trail in broadcast?
|
| 4:14 |
Christian: Typical evil landlord stuff, keeping Meg from watching the M’s in the playoffs
|
| 4:15 |
Chad Young: Someone earlier asked who would be the first to score without a HR – congratulations to the Seattle Mariners!
|
| 4:17 |
Chad Young: I am loving this. Well-pitched games, solid defense, just well-played baseball.
|
| 4:18 |
Chad Young: And here comes the offense
|
| 4:18 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: I know less about the Phillies than any other playoff team. What should I know about their bullpen?
|
| 4:19 |
Thom: Phillies bullpen in the playoffs, may God have mercy on us all
|
| 4:20 |
Chad Young: The Phillies pen isn’t terrible, but it is not particularly good and they don’t really have anyone I think of as a super reliable back-end arm that you can count on.
|
| 4:21 |
Chad Young: Alvarado, Dominguez, Bellati, and Nelson are the names to know, I think, but open to a Phillies fan correcting me
|
| 4:21 |
viceroy: If Seranthony were as healthy as he was earlier in the year, he and Alvarado would be a pretty menacing one-two punch. Sadly he and DRob have looked cooked
|
| 4:22 |
Chad Young: I think this is sorta my general feeling. They could have a great pen! but also Dominguez looks off, and Alvarado can lose the zone completely at times, and after that there isn’t anyone that exciting.
|
| 4:22 |
Skeletraz the Destroyer: Nick Nelson is not on the roster
|
| 4:22 |
Chad Young: well, then I guess he is not a name to know.
|
| 4:25 |
EonADS: Zach Eflin was a starter for most of his career, so he might be able to give the Phills some length if they need it.
|
| 4:25 |
Meg Rowley: Hello, I am returned to a bunch of runs? A bunch of runs!
|
| 4:25 |
Chad Young: Eflin could be an X factor but honestly in a short-series, needing length is already a concern. Especially with Wheeler/Nola – they shouldn’t need length and if they do, they are in trouble
|
| 4:26 |
Yo-Yo: Yepez is 24, Carlson is 23. Lots of youth on a team that is mostly known for the elderly trio
|
| 4:26 |
Chad Young: And I think Yepez still has a chance to be a special bat. I think Carlson is settling into what he is – which is good, by the way! – but I really like what Yepez brings and hope he gets some regular run next year.
|
| 4:28 |
Skeletraz the Destroyer: Eflin has essentially been a one inning guy since coming back from injury. Based on comments from Thomson, he is going to be relied on late in the game more than anyone save Alvarado
|
| 4:29 |
Chad Young: Yep, 7 appearances for 7.2 innings. Went 1.2 once.
|
| 4:29 |
Meg Rowley: I will admit to having STL/PHI muted… how much shadows talk has there been?
|
| 4:29 |
Sharps: Are there players good enough at defense to justify carrying them just for that purpose in the playoffs? A fielding closer, of sorts?
|
| 4:29 |
Chad Young: The Guardians have two of these players in their starting lineup – Myles Straw and Austin Hedges.
|
| 4:30 |
cg11: Meg, you missed a very good call by Michael Kay on the home run!
|
| 4:30 |
Meg Rowley: Yeah I was going to say, the only reason Hedges has a big league job is his defense
|
| 4:30 |
Guest: Too much shadow talk. It’s almost a little shady
|
| 4:30 |
Meg Rowley: I tip my cap to you, Guest
|
| 4:30 |
Chad Young: Straw has shown some on-base ability, but he’s been a huge negative on offense this year, but plays elite CF defense, too
|
| 4:30 |
Christian: Why do players helmets get a gunked up? I have always wondered and never looked this up.
|
| 4:31 |
Chad Young: I think in a lot of cases this is pine tar
|
| 4:31 |
Tstats: They called that Raleighs biggest homerun of his career. I mean… he walked the Ms into the playoffs
|
| 4:31 |
Meg Rowley: Yeah, feels too early to call that ball as it were.
|
| 4:32 |
Meg Rowley: I can envision bigger home runs than the walkoff but that’s probably not it?
|
| 4:32 |
Zander: could compare the cWPA of the two plays?
|
| 4:32 |
Meg Rowley: Oh sure, there are ways to do it
|
| 4:33 |
Christian: Has anyone billed this as Space Needle vs. CN Tower yet?
And which would win?
|
| 4:33 |
Chad Young: I actually don’t think cWPA would help. The Mariners playoff odds were so high by the time of that HR, but the meaning of that HR goes beyond the direct impact on title chances.
|
| 4:33 |
Meg Rowley: generally in favor of spindles
|
| 4:33 |
Meg Rowley: Lovely way of putting that
|
| 4:34 |
Meg Rowley: And now Kelenic meets his old rival: breaking stuff
|
| 4:36 |
Chad Young: Getting a wide zone in Toronto right now
|
| 4:37 |
Yo-Yo: What’s stopping a player from growing a ZZ Top-style beard that grows into the strike zone to get more HBP
|
| 4:37 |
Meg Rowley: their own comfort
|
| 4:37 |
Meg Rowley: also what kind of volume are we envisioning with this beard?
|
| 4:38 |
Skeletraz the Destroyer: wait wait wait…Darin Ruf *did* make the playoff roster?
|
| 4:38 |
Meg Rowley: He did – it was goofed initially in the reporting.
|
| 4:38 |
Meg Rowley: Naquin didn’t
|
| 4:39 |
Chad Young: Gotta wonder how long they can let Manoah go here, but also not sure who the Jays can turn to
|
| 4:40 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Manoah definitely struggling. All five of those pitches to Crawford were balls.
|
| 4:40 |
Chad Young: And Julio helping him out now.
|
| 4:40 |
Yo-Yo: It would have to be bushy as heck and use product to guide it at an angle
|
| 4:40 |
Meg Rowley: Seems like it would be a hazard on the basepaths
|
| 4:41 |
Chad Young: It would interfere with your swing too!
|
| 4:42 |
Meg Rowley: Now I have image of a terrible beard getting wrapped around a bat like a cartoon
|
| 4:42 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Is the strike zone in the Ms/Jays game as huge as it looks on Gameday?
|
| 4:42 |
Meg Rowley: It is fairly large
|
| 4:43 |
Chad Young: Meg is being kind and trying not to let her fandom impact her reaction to the strike zone. It seems VERY large
|
| 4:44 |
Yo-Yo: Could be braids, and your batting stance is a leaning back and forth motion to get them swinging into the zone. Just gotta tie them into a necklace when you reach base
|
| 4:45 |
Meg Rowley: This feels like an Effectively Wild email
|
| 4:46 |
Pet Shop Boys: It’s a sin having Brandon Marsh batting in such a high leverage spot. Phillies got what they deserved
|
| 4:46 |
Chad Young: Not sure they had a better option there.
|
| 4:47 |
Meg Rowley: Scarf lady is behind the plate in Toronto, I am so pleased.
|
| 4:47 |
Meg Rowley: I imagine she isn’t pleased with the score but
|
| 4:47 |
Sharps: David Robertson, after looking cooked, has now been in back-to-back postseasons. Good on hime.
|
| 4:47 |
Chad Young: Definitely did not see Robertson putting up the season he has
|
| 4:48 |
Meg Rowley: Just FYI, when STL/PHI wraps, we’re going to wrap up the chat.
|
| 4:48 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Has SMILE lady made any appearances so far today?
|
| 4:49 |
Meg Rowley: Not that I’ve noticed – not a fan of that ad campaign
|
| 4:49 |
Meg Rowley: Love Halloween, but that looks too scary for me!
|
| 4:50 |
Rick: its over? I just got here!
|
| 4:50 |
Chad Young: Ah yes, Tapia’s career numbers vs. Castillo, very useful data
|
| 4:51 |
Meg Rowley: Don’t fret – we’ll chat again!
|
| 4:51 |
RTJ: Meg – Famous last words – incoming 16 inning STL/PHI game
|
| 4:51 |
Chad Young: Meg will be in trouble if this happens cause I have to leave soon regardless.
|
| 4:51 |
Meg Rowley: We’re looking at the first day of Division, Championship, and World Series play for sure, plus some clinching games
|
| 4:53 |
Guest: look forward to these chats every year, big part of my playoff experience, thanks everyone
|
| 4:53 |
Meg Rowley: That’s great to hear! We’ll likely do at least one live stream as well.
|
| 4:54 |
Safeco 99: Non-M’s fan here, fully jumping on the M’s bandwagon & living vicariously through the elation of their long, long suffering & passionate fanbase! Great start to the PS.
|
| 4:54 |
Meg Rowley: Welcome to pain!
|
| 4:55 |
Meg Rowley: Realmuto with a single…
|
| 4:56 |
Chad Young: My poor kids. Growing up in Seattle and if they decide to lean on Dad’s fandom they get Cleveland?
|
| 4:56 |
Zachary: Why do the Cardinals fans boo Bryce Harper? Did he do something to them?
|
| 4:56 |
Chad Young: Cards fans can weigh in, but I think this is the general “boo the best player on the other team” thing
|
| 4:57 |
RTJ: Have y’all done statistical analyses about this “pitching in the shadows” and how it affects batting performance?
|
| 4:57 |
Meg Rowley: I feel like BP did something on this a few years back, but I’m struggling to find it now
|
| 4:58 |
Meg Rowley: Little something brewing for the Phils in St. Louis…
|
| 4:59 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Which of the unhittable relief aces (Helsley, Diaz, Clase, etc) will be the first to give up a run?
|
| 4:59 |
Meg Rowley: 
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| 4:59 |
Guest: Pujols for NL DH Silver Slugger?
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| 4:59 |
Chad Young: Probably Harper, but Pujols is a reasonable suggestion and that in and of itself is crazy to me.
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| 4:59 |
Colton: I think the booing Harper thing comes from his free agency when there was a frenzy that he might be signing with STL and didn’t along with the boo the best player thing
|
| 5:00 |
Meg Rowley: Fandom is such a weird thing
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| 5:00 |
Sharps: TLDR: The main finding of this study is that there was no significant difference in the pitcher’s outcome when the shadow was and was not in play during the plate appearance. As opposed to the general assumption of how shadows affect the outcome of plate appearances the results indicate that shadows do not affect the outcome of plate appearances
|
| 5:01 |
Chad Young: Ok, folks, I need to head out, but lucky for you I am being pulled for a closer more capable than Helsley appears to be. Meg will see you through the last couple outs (or more….)
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| 5:02 |
Meg Rowley: Thanks for chatting!
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| 5:03 |
Meg Rowley: Will Bohm emerge a hero? Are we due for extras? IS MY STREAM BEHIND?
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| 5:03 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Rooting for a good long extra inning game to keep the chat going. I have four hours of work left.
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| 5:03 |
Meg Rowley: The fans look Extremely Nervous.
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| 5:04 |
Sharps: oh man that’s an awkward way to score the run
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| 5:04 |
Meg Rowley: Gotta go get him
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| 5:05 |
Zachary: That had to hurt like heck, but I love how hyped Bohm was!
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| 5:05 |
Wireless Joe Jackson: Yikes. Hit by 101. Helsley has thrown a couple that look scary.
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| 5:05 |
MLB Bingo: Who had HBP on there card
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| 5:05 |
Meg Rowley: They should let us manage imo
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| 5:05 |
Dain: Helsley did not hit a batter in the regular season.
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| 5:07 |
Yo-Yo: He jammed his finger on a play recently. Not sure if it’s the same hand or what
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| 5:07 |
Guest: It is the same hand and finger
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| 5:08 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: If it’s Flaherty does he get the ball the rest of the game? Feels like yes.
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| 5:09 |
Meg Rowley: Meanwhile Blue Jays have two on with two out and Vladdy up
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| 5:09 |
Meg Rowley: Pallante here
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| 5:09 |
Meg Rowley: Vladdy flies out
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| 5:11 |
Meg Rowley: Cardinals fans, how are you feeling?
|
| 5:12 |
Alex: This is nerve-wracking.
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| 5:12 |
Sharps: hold on to your butts we’re going to the bottom of the 9th!
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| 5:12 |
Tstats: This feels like the Phillies bullpen…
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| 5:13 |
Meg Rowley: Phillies fans, how are you feeling?
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| 5:14 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: LOVE the idea of the safety squeeze there.
|
| 5:14 |
Andrew: this is good for the Phillies and all, but as A-Rod knows, you always want even run leads instead of odd run leads
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| 5:15 |
Meg Rowley: That’s how you get hardware
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| 5:15 |
Meg Rowley: that was a nice play by Goldy even though they didn’t get him
|
| 5:17 |
Guest: Edmundo sosa revenge game 🔥
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| 5:17 |
Guest: Sosa seemed a little extra motivated there against his former team
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| 5:18 |
Steven: should goldy have just taken the out there instead?
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| 5:19 |
Zachary: You know things are collapsing when balls are getting by Nolan Arenado.
|
| 5:20 |
Guest: What are these Broncos fans doing at the Cards game?
|
| 5:20 |
Meg Rowley: Don’t make fun of those Broncos fans, they just have good self-preservation instincts
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| 5:20 |
Bunk: Not the mistakes I’m used to seeing from the Cards
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| 5:20 |
Meg Rowley: It’s surprising!
|
| 5:21 |
The Good Phight: They’re going crazy over there
|
| 5:21 |
Christian: Their first closer put them in Hellsley, and now their new one is giving up Pallante of runs to the Phils
|
| 5:22 |
Meg Rowley: (is it ok for me to admit that i’m just ok on poutine?)
|
| 5:23 |
Dave: That was three different players that will win a gold glove this season that made some level of defensive misplay that inning
|
| 5:23 |
re: poutine: fries get all mushy 🙁
|
| 5:23 |
Christian: I’ve yet to have it, it seems like it would taste good but would be a textural nightmare
|
| 5:24 |
Meg Rowley: This is a big part of it
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| 5:24 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Good poutine is almost exclusively a product of good cheese curds.
|
| 5:24 |
Meg Rowley: Even when I was in Wisconsin, wasn’t big on it and those are some good curds.
|
| 5:25 |
Grand Admiral Braun: The STL-PHI run probability graph looks like a 7.0 earthquake just hit the St. Louis area.
|
| 5:26 |
Meg Rowley: Hey at least you get a series, Cardinals fans.
|
| 5:27 |
Sharps: Meanwhile Manoah has settled into a nice groove, just waiting for his lauded offense to arrive
|
| 5:27 |
Meg Rowley: Yeah, and that slider is so filthy
|
| 5:28 |
Yo-Yo: I hadn’t really thought about if I liked the three game series format for a division winner and now I’m biased not to like it lol. My objectivity died before I could use it!
|
| 5:29 |
Meg Rowley: I don’t love the expanded field, but am glad that we get to watch all of these teams for more than a day
|
| 5:30 |
Jeremy: Phillies fan here, I had to go to an in person work meeting after the 5th and I just got back. Did I miss anything?
|
| 5:30 |
Meg Rowley: One or two things
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| 5:33 |
Meg Rowley: Mariners tack on a run on a slow grounder
|
| 5:33 |
Meg Rowley: Second time a HBP’ed Julio scores
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| 5:34 |
Jeremy: I guess Eflin is our closer now? I feel pretty good about that.
|
| 5:35 |
Dave: That probability graph earthquake isn’t done shaking!
|
| 5:35 |
The Other Christian: do the Blue Jays go to the bull pen to start the 6th?
|
| 5:36 |
Meg Rowley: I think I’d let him go back out
|
| 5:36 |
Meg Rowley: And that’ll do it in St. Louis, and do it for the chat.
|
| 5:37 |
Meg Rowley: Thanks for hanging out everyone, and watch out for info on future chats on the site and twitter!
|
| 5:37 |
Meg Rowley: Enjoy the rest of the Wild Card round!
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Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
