FanGraphs 2023 Staff Predictions

After an offseason marked by big free-agent contracts, big bases, and the introduction of the pitch clock, the 2023 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year’s Mariners? Our staff thought they’d finally bring an end to the franchise’s playoff drought, and wouldn’t you know it, they did just that. The division-winning Cleveland Guardians? We fared less well. Such is the prognostication business.

We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in; here are the results.

American League

Our playoff predictions for the Junior Circuit closely resemble those from last year. We think the Astros will once again take the West, and we have the Mariners set to make a return trip to postseason play via one of the Wild Card spots. The presence of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, coupled with a reinforced rotation and the return of Anthony Rendon, netted the Angels a few votes. And while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney wasn’t enough to catapult the Rangers past Houston, Seattle, or Los Angeles, it did get them out of the division’s basement; last year, they received no support from our staff despite having added Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

The Guardians and Twins each garnered 12 votes for the division crown, though Cleveland edged Minnesota in Wild Card support. The White Sox, who last season received 21 of the 23 division votes, received just three this year to go along with scant Wild Card support. What a difference 12 months and at least as many injuries make.

Meanwhile, we expect the AL East to send three teams to the postseason once again. And despite our playoff odds giving the Yankees the best chance of winning the division as well as the highest odds of winning the World Series of any team in the AL, the staff thinks the Blue Jays will take the East. That said, New York still matches Toronto in total votes. The Rays also show well, though primarily in the race for the second and third Wild Card spot.

National League

Last year, the Dodgers were the only unanimous division winner our staff selected in either league. This year, they’re a unanimous playoff selection, but in keeping with their diminished playoff odds, we like the Padres to win the West. San Diego is also a unanimous playoff selection, making the NL West the only division with two such teams. The Diamondbacks also garnered five Wild Card votes. It’s not enough to make them a postseason team, but it’s a definite boost from last year’s shutout.

We expect the Cardinals to repeat as NL Central champs, though the Brewers don’t show terribly. Still, the Central is the only division to have only two teams receive playoff votes; we see the Cubs as being more than a Dansby Swanson away. Lastly, the NL East is as stacked as it’s geographic counterpart in the AL; the Braves receive unanimous support, with the Mets not far behind and the defending NL pennant winners also expected to play October baseball. We expect Atlanta to repeat as division champs, but it’s much closer than either the West or Central, a testament to the strength of the Mets.

Pennant and World Series Winners

Given their anticipated division dominance, it isn’t surprising to see the Astros and Padres well represented in their respective pennant races, nor is it a shock to see the Blue Jays and Mets get votes. I am a little surprised the Braves didn’t fare better in that regard. As for the eventual winner of the Fall Classic? If we’re right, the denizens of Petco Park will claim their first World Series victory in franchise history.

Individual Awards

Last year, 10 different players received AL MVP votes from our staff, with no player garnering more than seven votes (out of 23). Well, after witnessing another year of Ohtani’s two-way magic, there’s a good deal more consensus, with the Angel (or is he a unicorn?) netting 18 of 27 votes.

When Jacob deGrom pitches, he’s the best pitcher on the planet. Whether he’ll do so often enough to win his third Cy Young award, and his first in the AL, is the question. He leads the way here, just as he does on our Depth Chart projections — his forecast of 5.3 WAR in just 163 innings of work is tops in baseball. Gerrit Cole and Ohtani offer compelling alternatives.

AL East rookies received 24 of the 27 votes for AL Rookie of the Year, with Gunnar Henderson leading the way. The no. 1 overall prospect in baseball was just 14 at-bats shy of graduating from rookie eligibility last year, which coincidentally is how many votes he received from our staff.

Juan Soto is projected for 6.6 WAR and a 168 wRC+. Both marks lead NL hitters, though the reality of his down 2022 — a .242/.401/.452 line, 145 wRC+, and 3.8 WAR — perhaps helps to explain the presence of other hitters here. Not that any of them would be unworthy. Indeed, with the exception of Alonso, all of the remaining vote-getters are in the top 10 of projected WAR among NL hitters, and Alonso checks in at no. 19.

The NL Cy Young race is an exciting mix of veteran stars and intriguing young hurlers. Burnes, the top vote-getter here, won in 2021 on the back of a 7.5 WAR season that saw him post a 2.43 ERA and a 1.63 FIP, though the fact that he only threw 167.0 innings raised some eyebrows. His 2022 wasn’t quite as strong, though he answered the durability question in the affirmative — his 202.0 innings were fourth in the majors behind only eventual unanimous Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, Aaron Nola, and Miles Mikolas.

And you thought we liked Gunnar Henderson. Corbin Carroll, the no. 2 prospect in baseball, runs away with it here, pun strongly intended. Carroll’s 32-game debut resulted in a .260/.330/.500 line (130 wRC+), 1.4 WAR, and an eight-year, $111 million extension this offseason.

That’s the whole shebang. Each voter’s full ballot for each league is below; these tables are sortable. We’ll check in on how close to right we were when the season wraps up and look forward to writing about all of the ways we end up being surprised in the meantime. We hope you’ll tag along. Happy Opening Day, everyone!

Full Staff Predictions