FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 11/21/17

10:26

Paul Swydan:

Do you eat turkey on Thanksgiving?

Yes (77.8% | 137 votes)

No (10.7% | 19 votes)

Sometimes (11.3% | 20 votes)

Total Votes: 176

10:29

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite Thanksgiving side dish?

Green bean casserole (6.3% | 11 votes)

Cranberry sauce (4.6% | 8 votes)

Stuffing (29.6% | 51 votes)

Mashed potatoes (27.9% | 48 votes)

Mac and cheese (5.8% | 10 votes)

Brussel sprouts (2.3% | 4 votes)

Carrots (1.1% | 2 votes)

Sweet potatoes (11.0% | 19 votes)

Rolls (6.9% | 12 votes)

Something else! (say in comments) (4.0% | 7 votes)

Total Votes: 172

10:30

Paul Swydan:

What’s your favorite kind of Thanksgiving pie?

Pumpkin pie (39.1% | 65 votes)

Pecan pie (21.0% | 35 votes)

Apple pie (24.6% | 41 votes)

Blueberry pie (3.6% | 6 votes)

Another kind of hot fruit pie (4.8% | 8 votes)

Other (say in comments) (6.6% | 11 votes)

Total Votes: 166

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! FYI you’re all underrating pecan pie!

9:01	hscer: There’s more than one kind of “cranberry sauce” y’know!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Ah touche.

9:01	hscer: congrats to everyone in this chat. we now have a better chance of getting a job in MLB than John Coppolella does

9:02	Paul Swydan:

9:02	Cistulli’s Guy: What does Cistulli do for Thaksgiving?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Probably campaigning for his favorite person Paul LaPage.

9:02	Prince S. Leia Fielder: Why in the world would the Red Sox pay 120+ million for Hosmer when Carlos Santana will probably provide the same (or greater value) for significantly less? Brand name recognition? Stupidity?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Stupidity would be my guess.

9:03	That guy: Mashed potatoes or green bean casserole? Discuss.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Oh mashed potatoes for me.

9:04	Beleaguered GM: What are your thoughts on Khris Davis going forward? HRs/RBIS are great, but Avg. killed me last year (5×5, roto, keep all). Is flipping for 1/2 top prospects this offseason selling low? what’s a fair price?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I think Khris Davis is the kind of guy I would feel more comfortable with in a redraft league. But I wouldn’t sell low on him unless we’re talking really top prospects.

9:05	Nate J.: Who is the first team to offer an under-the-table deal to Maitan?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’m sure he’s already got 10 of them.

9:05	dave: Kinsler to Mets seem likely to you? What would the Tigers want back?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh absolutely. It’s such a classic Mets move. Kinsler was teetering on the edge of the cliff last year.

9:06	Tayne: What’s your opinion of Ryan McMahon?

9:06	Paul Swydan: High!

9:06	Paul Swydan: Jeff should be along in 15 minutes or so btw.

9:06	Prince S. Leia Fielder: Can either of you see the Phillies making a big offseason trade this winter with an eye toward competing in 2019? Something like trading for Yelich?

9:07	Paul Swydan: It seems like Jeter wouldn’t want to start by trading one of his most beloved players within the division.

9:07	Prince S. Leia Fielder: Happy thanksgiving to you and yours. Gonna be spending my thanksgiving in the hospital it looks like… welp.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Oh damn, sorry to hear that. Hope you feel better soon.

9:07	Prince S. Leia Fielder: What are you guys doing for turkey day?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I spend Thanksgiving with family. Over the years, 12 has grown to 20+. It’s a good time.

9:08	hscer: why such the bum rap for pecan pie?

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s what I’m saying.

9:08	weezy: What is each of your strategies when it comes to expensive or cheap keepers? Obviously it depends a ton on format, etc. so I’ll give a scenario: one of my leagues (OBP & SLG) I have a choice between $5 Matt Olson or a $48 Bryce Harper… both would save me about the same on draft day

9:09	Paul Swydan: I always prefer the sure thing than the guy you still have to draft depth around. Olson has a lot of promise, but I’d ride with Harper.

9:10	redmaster: Does it make sense for Severino to learn a new pitch, like a curveball?

9:10	Paul Swydan: No, if I was him I’d probably just stick with what he’s doing now.

9:10	ryan: am i the only one who thinks a life-time ban for coppy seems a bit harsh?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Well, it’s probably a bit of a formality. There was little chance of him getting another job in the industry after this, and banning him for life helps build the theater for MLB to institute an international draft.

9:12	Jackson: Will the Yankees block their minor league depth by signing Alex Cobb

9:12	Paul Swydan: Whether they sign Cobb or not, we’ll probably end up getting a look at their promising minor leaguers at some point next season anyway.

9:12	woodberry: Do you think AA had any inkling that the punishment would be this harsh? Furthermore, do you think he may have pushed for Hart’s departure to start with a clean slate, or did Hart decide to bail on his own?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I would think that AA knew both that the punishment would be harsh and that Hart would be leaving when he took the job.

9:13	ben: Braves fan here. Can anyone console me?

9:13	Paul Swydan: You have a real GM now?

9:13	Kelvin: Braves punishment- too severe, too soft, just right?

9:14	Paul Swydan: It’s a better question for Eric, but it seems fine to me. You can’t condemn the actions and then bind the players tied up in those actions to the team.

9:14	Gavin: Would playing 81 games in AT&T park reduce Stanton’s value enough to make going after him a bad idea for SF?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well, not really, because he doesn’t have to opt out.

9:14	botchatheny: 1st question needs tofurky added

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think “tofurky” is covered under “no.”

9:15	Coach K: Mike Minor I believe rejected his QO. He excelled in closing postion in Sept. but says he wants to start again. Based upon his medicals and past surgery, do you see him staying in a late inning role, or do you think someone will take a shot in FA and plug him as a 4/5 starter?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I can’t imagine anyone wanting to take a chance on him as a starter again, but I’ve been wrong before.

9:16	Jordan: Do you think Quintana is a keeper at $16? 10 team, 12 keeper league

9:16	Paul Swydan: It’s impossible to know without knowing your salary cap. Sorry. Always give us that context.

9:16	awy: aaron judge put up a 173 wrc+ season while swinging with one shoulder for half of it. pretty neat

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yeah, not too shabby.

9:17

Jose: How different is what the Braves did versus what the Red Sox did a couple of years ago? No one with the Red Sox got banned from baseball. Seems like a drastically more severe punishment for a similar infraction. It’s like if my older brother got stealing 2 cookies and got grounded, but I stole 2.5 cookies and was given up for adoption.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Not sure, but again, I think this time around they’re trying to set the stage for an international draft, and banning someone for life is probably going to help them sell that.

9:17	TheBigBass: The question everyone wants to know – jellied or whole-berry cranberry sauce?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I had to Google what “whole-berry cranberry sauce” was. Never even had that. Definitely jellied.

9:18	Jose: The runners up in the Ohtani sweepstakes have a sweet consolation prize: Maitan! Where do you predict he signs?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Can’t call it. It’s further complicated by the fact that teams can either use this year’s or next year’s signing bonus money to sign him, so you could concoct a whole lot of scenarios for him.

9:19	Jeff: Thoughts on one Gleybeer Torres?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Man. Gleybeer Torres would be a great softball team name.

9:19	Paul Swydan: (I am a big fan.)

9:19	Long Live Jeff Frye: I spent two Thanksgivings in a row in the hospital during my grandmother’s last years. The nurses were just astonishingly nice.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Sorry to hear that. Losing someone at the holidays has to be extra painful.

9:20	Ben: Is Tulo done making any kind of meaningful impact?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think he is, unfortunately. Maybe he has one dead cat bounce season in him.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!!!!

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. Barely play MI and bats not good enough for anywhere else

9:21	Long Live Jeff Frye: Do we actually know that the Red Sox want Hosmer, or is that all just external speculation?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Usually there’s fire when there’s this much smoke, but no, no one from the Red Sox has publicly stated that they’re after him.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m sure they’d take him but costs will be the issue

9:21	Votto!: Lemon meringue. Mmmmmmm.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I almost added that. Key lime too. But then I didn’t.

9:22	Ben: Stanton traded prior to Christmas?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oh, almost certainly. His trade is going to hold up a lot of things in the market, so there will be pressure to get him dealt.

9:23	Scuffy Mcgee: I havent seen this theory anywhere, but do you think Tanaka could have opted in because he might not have been able to pass a physical

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll move after JD IMO. JD is just money. Stanton is money and players

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think there’s definitely something to that theory.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:24	Ben: The “Ohtani following Darvish “ narrative is kinda dumb right? Seems like Ohtani will sign first since teams would likely see if they can get him for “free” before dropping 150M on Yu….

9:24	Paul Swydan: It seems extremely derivative and almost insulting to me, yes.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: If Ohtani comes now. The Braves mess may have limited possible under the table dealings

9:25	Ben: Better 2018: Morrow or Betances?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Betances.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Betances

9:25	Paul Swydan: I want to believe.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: by a mile

9:25	Brad: Corn pudding is the best thanksgiving side

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well now, there’s a take.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Besides beer?

9:25	Ben: Any chance CHC and ARI could match up on a trade? Happ for Godley (framework)? Happ for Walker? Someone else for Corbin?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Not sure why the Cubs need to trade for a starter, but people seem pretty convinced of this.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think AZ will keep their pitchers.

9:26	Big Joey: Do you think buying stock of Scherzer or Kluber is a bad investment in keeper forever leagues? They’re incredible now but with the career innings pitched, age and injuries starting to occur, haven’t we already seen their best and it’s likely down hill from here?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends at your motives. Are you planning for more than three years down the road? If so, then yes, it’d be a bad idea. If you’re just planning for the next three years though, then I’d be a buyer.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends on the cost. Teams need pitching and there are only a few aces

9:28	TheDuke: Should the Orioles try pushing all in this year ahead of Machado’s free agency? I feel will the Jays down and the Sox and Rays looking deeply flawed only the Yankees are a sure thing.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I guess I’m just not sure how they could realistically push all in without spending just a ridiculous amount of money, since they don’t really have a huge prospect stash from which to trade.

9:29	Paul Swydan: As for the sanity of such a plan…shrug. I guess I’m not sure why you think the Red Sox are deeply flawed though.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: They could but I expect the Sox to really bounce back. Lots of injuries

9:29

Cage: The Hosmer/Red Sox link seems largely based on: a. The Red Sox need a first baseman. b. Their organizational changes over past two years seem to be ripe for the overpay Hosmer train, and c. they are basically the only big market team looking to pay a first baseman. That may also help them avoid the mistake by getting Santana at a more reasonable rate.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Right, there’s plenty of logic to it.

9:30	Gleybeer Torres: Auston Barnes future at catcher for LA?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. It makes sense but though to tell what people are thinking. I think he’s headed back to KC

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Hopefully

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: on Barnes

9:31	Paul Swydan: On Barnes – I love Barnes. Yes.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Grandal is closer to free agency than you might think.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: and is a worse catcher

9:31	Roger: How about a Nick Senzel for Michael Fulmer or Danny Duffy trade? Reds get the SP they need to capitalize on their current crop of strong position players, and the Tigers or Royals get a top prospect to jumpstart their rebuild.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Seems like that’d be selling low on Senzel for no reason.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds need to move their FB SP for some groundball guys. Adleman needs to be in a big park

9:32	Jose: So, is it possible that Trea Turner isn’t actually good at hitting the baseball? .305 xwOBA (246th), bad batted ball profile… I’m considering trading for him in a keep forever dynasty and surprisingly nervous to do so

9:32	Paul Swydan: Anything is possible, but he’s the kind of guy who retains a ton of value in fantasy if he’s stealing bases.

9:33	Paul Swydan: He was one of 3 guys to steal 40+ bases this year.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Most of his fantasy value is typed to his legs, which will improve his xwOBA (IFH and singles into doubles). And those steals.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Turner hit 11 homers. The other two guys combined for 6.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: IFO = IFH

9:34	Chase Headley: I know most of the Red Sox position players had down years, but projecting a bounce back from them all seems aggressive. Do you agree with the early projections?

9:34	Paul Swydan: For the most part. Jared does a great job with Steamer.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing wrong with the projections. And it’s tough to hit when in pain.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Please understand that Bogaerts played basically for two months with a bum wrist after a HBP.

9:35	Paul Swydan: That’s not easy.

9:35	Quadrangular: thoughts on Syndergaard in 2018?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Tempered. I want to see him throw multiple innings in ST at full velo.

9:36	Paul Swydan:

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s tough to come back from torn core muscles

9:36	Tiss: MadBum, Cueto, and Shark all bounce back this year for SF?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Not sure how much better you expect Samardzija to be.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. Shark had a damn good season. Two Colorado games inflated his ERA by .5

9:37	Paul Swydan: But Bumgarner should be better just by bulk.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m worried Madbun may have lost a tick

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Cueto is Cueto

9:38	Ben: If you are TB and you’ve decided to trade Archer and/or Kiermaier, who is the first team you call? Who’s the ONE guy you’d want?

9:38	Paul Swydan: That’s a great question.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Cardinals. They have a ton of major league ready talent. Grab 3-4 pieces.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I’d probably call the Blue Jays and ask about Vlady.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I’d call the Nationals about Robles and the Yankees about Torres.

9:39	Quadrangular: Fangraphs auction calculator seems to heavily discount steals – do you happen to know why?

9:40	Paul Swydan: No, but I bet Jeff does.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: It assumes most of them get taken but owners still love power hitters and they get owned more in real life. Saves are scarcer in real leagues than ideal leagues making them worth more.

9:42	Jose: Would an international draft be a super entertaining media event given its unpredictability, or the single least watchable sporting event since the 2017 Mets?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt they’d even televise it.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Horrible

9:42	TheDuke: Pedroia looks done. I don’t expect great health from Price, bouncebacks from Porcello or Bradley, I expect some regression from Pomeranz, and they’re about to pay a 28 year old Hosmer for a career outlier year while blocking Chavez. Other than that the Red Sox are great.

9:42	Paul Swydan: So the Red Sox are suspect because of something they haven’t even done yet? C’mon now.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep the narrative going

9:43	Paul Swydan: Pedroia was hitting well before he messed up his knee. He’s on his last legs, but I won’t call him done yet.

9:44	Paul Swydan: As for Porcello and Bradley – I agree with you that I’m not expecting a big bounceback by Porcello, but they just won 93 games with crappy Porcello, so I’m not sure that logic holds up either.

9:44	Brandon M: How many MLB teams are guilty of something similar to Atlanta? All of them?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: 80%

9:44	Paul Swydan: Every single one. They just didn’t do it as brazenly/blatantly, and on as large a scope as Atlanta did.

9:44	Paul Swydan: don’t

9:45	Quadrangular: even with reasonable regression built in, steamer still like Pham in 2018. you guys buying/keeping shares?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Sort of. I really like Pham, but I’m not going to jump the gun for him in snake drafts, so it’s unlikely I’ll end up with him.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Buying for just 2018. Not long term. I have not forgotten Allen Craig yet.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I feel the hype on him may have exceeded the potential production, in other words. Even with the projections backing him up. People seem to really love him.

9:46	Quadrangular: place yourselves in the GM position for Atlanta – how do you adjust your immediate 2018-20 strategy based on the ruling? do you need to push your window for contention out a few years?

9:47	Paul Swydan: At least a year or two, yeah.

9:47	Paul Swydan: My immediate strategy would probably be to call/visit Freddie Freeman and make sure he’s not going to kill me.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, you just go with what you have. The losses are to far away to matter when some of their top prospects will be in their primes

9:47	Murdoc: If/when there’s an international draft how should the draft order go? Worst team is picking first in both drafts? Lottery?

9:48	Paul Swydan: That’s just the thing – I have NO idea.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be last to first

9:48	Ryan: Steamer seems surprisingly conservative on Altuve. Any idea why?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Because Altuve just had his best season, it looks very conservative.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Heavy regression after a career season? No way

9:50	Paul Swydan: He’s still pegged as the 16th-best position player by WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steam…

9:50	Paul Swydan: Keep in mind also that he ran a career-high .370 BABIP this year.

9:50	Ben: You are a manager. You have to win this game or you will be killed. Who is your starting pitcher?

9:50	Paul Swydan: All-time: Pedro Martinez

9:50	Paul Swydan: Current: Clayton Kershaw

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Bob Gibson all-time

9:51	Dan Quinn: How does John Schurlholtz get away clean? Who was approving the $ that coppy was spending?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well, that’s part of banning Coppy. Makes it look like it was all him, and insulated Schuerholz and Hart.

9:52	Paul Swydan: insulates

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not clean, just no much evidence pointing to him.

9:53	Alex Anthopoulos: I want Corey Dickerson playing Left Field on Opening Day 2018. What do I have to give Tampa to get that done?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Money

9:55	Ohtani Kitean: Not sure Hart is insulated. Press release stated something to the effect of “all guilty parties are no longer with the team” — might include Hart, n’est pas?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Maybe. But they didn’t say him by name, thus insulating him.

9:56	John: Would an international draft and domestic draft both being slotted worst to first encourage tanking in baseball given the under 25 AAAA leagues in Cuba and Japan would be limited to coming over through it?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Ding ding ding!

9:57	Paul Swydan: That’s why I’m not sure you can just do it the same old way.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Of course, I don’t think there should be any draft, foreign or domestic, so…

9:58	Quadrangular: I think Passan noted that all (most) teams probably adhere to a similar practice as what the Braves were just busted for. does that sound about right? if so, do you think this ruling is a significant enough incentive for the league as a whole to change their practice?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I think it sounds right, yes. Teams will toe the line for awhile, but they’ll be back to regular habits sooner or later.

9:59	Brett W: Is Dyson a strong-side CF platoon captain or a starter going forward?

9:59	Paul Swydan: You’re literally talking to the guy who once wrote “Free Jarrod Dyson!” I think he’s good enough to be a full-time starter.

9:59	Catchers: Will Maitan and Ohtani (the latter to a lesser extent) both have their market values decreased by the presence of one another? Thanks.

9:59	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so.