FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/14/17

by Paul Swydan

February 14, 2017

3:29	Paul Swydan: What is your favorite Simpsons Valentine’s Day episode Season 4 – “I Love Lisa” (Choo-Choo-Choose Me) (69.1% \| 94 votes) Season 10 – “I’m With Cupid” (Elton John) (15.4% \| 21 votes) Other (15.4% \| 21 votes) Total Votes: 136

3:30	Paul Swydan: Is the Alex Reyes news a death blow for the Cardinals’ playoff hopes? Definitely (6.2% \| 16 votes) Probably (31.3% \| 80 votes) Maybe (28.6% \| 73 votes) Probably not (25.4% \| 65 votes) Definitely not (6.6% \| 17 votes) Who’s Alex Reyes? (1.5% \| 4 votes) Total Votes: 255

3:32	Paul Swydan: Who should start the majority of the games at catcher for the Cubs this season? Victor Caratini (1.1% \| 3 votes) Willson Contreras (89.2% \| 225 votes) Miguel Montero (5.9% \| 15 votes) Kyle Schwarber (3.5% \| 9 votes) Total Votes: 252

3:34

Paul Swydan:

What preseason event is most exciting to you?

Truck Day (1.1% | 3 votes)

Pitchers and catchers reporting (10.1% | 26 votes)

First intra-team scrimmage (0.3% | 1 vote)

First Spring Training game (33.7% | 86 votes)

Your fantasy baseball draft (52.5% | 134 votes)

Other? (1.9% | 5 votes)

Total Votes: 255

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Flying solo tonight, because Jeff and his wife still do Valentine’s Day, the poor guy.

9:01	Paul Swydan: One sec.

9:02	Paul Swydan:

9:02	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s have some fun tonight. I started a Valentine’s Day depth chart. Help me fill it out!

9:03	Paul Swydan: If you right click on that image, you should be able to open it in a new tab and see a large version of it.

9:03	Paul Swydan: We need some slugger help.

9:03	ChiSox2020: Does the Alex Reyes issue have any impact on the Quintana market?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. I don’t think the Cardinals were ever going to give the White Sox enough to land Quintana before or after Reyes’ injury, especially because it seems as though they knew he had a slight tear before he reported.

9:04	ChiSox2020: People saying Cards should go after Odorizzi, are the Rays really selling right now? They seem to be going for it.

9:05

Paul Swydan: So, again, maybe the Cardinals will surprise me, but they don’t really strike me as the type of team to make a deal like this. We went through this with them last year when Peralta got hurt, and their response was to get Ruben Tejada on the cheap, and then they turned to Aledyms Diaz. I don’t see them doing anything different now.

9:05	Doug Frazier: Should the Cardinals replace Alex Reyes with Luke Weaver? If no, what is their next best option?

9:06	Paul Swydan: It would seem that his innings will go to a combo of Wacha and Weaver – the Dubs, if you will – at least at the outset. I’m sure they have some 17th round pick who will end up being an All-Star this year.

9:06	Ron Gant: Have Desclafani, Inciarte, and AJ Ramos all for the same cheap price as keeper options in a deep NL Only… am not keeping any other pitchers or OF. Need to pick 1 of them to drop.. who would you suggest letting go?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I would drop Ramos. He’s not that special, and relievers are always easier to replace.

9:07	Mike: I have the second pick in my draft this year. Do I take Bryant given his positional versatility (1B/3B/OF), or do I look elsewhere (Kershaw, Altuve, etc.) ? It’s a Yahoo H2H with R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP as the categories.

9:08	Paul Swydan: When I did a mock draft recently, I had the third pick. Trout and Kershaw went 1 and 2, leaving me with Bryant or Mookie at 3. I went Bryant.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I would probably take Bryant over Kershaw.

9:08	JC: Mazara for a 26th or Hendricks for a 14th? CBS H2H pts, 10 teams. Thanks.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Going to go Hendricks here.

9:08	Vic: 13 team 4 OF, 1 C 5 x 5…..heavy keepers with only $2 bump each year. My McCullers($9) for his A Eaton ($11)…..also my Manaea ($5) for his A Eaton ($11). Seems like I should accept one of the two and get Eaton. Which pitcher should I trade?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’d trade Manaea. More upside perhaps, but also more downside.

9:10	Paul Swydan: This is a good time to remind you all that you can make these kinds of comparisons concretely by using our “Custom Teams” feature, which allows you to see player comparisons by both actual major league stats as well as projections.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Here’s McCullers vs. Manaea. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=l28959

9:10	Paul Swydan: Steamer likes McCullers a lot more.

9:11	Bojack Horseman: We never did a poll of best Netflix show. And now all we’re going to talk about is stupid Valentine’s day and the stupid Simpsons, instead of me, BoJack Horseman, the MOVIE STAR.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Shut up Bojack.

9:11	Billy Beane: Why is Joe Blanton still a free agent? I can think of about 30 teams that could use him as either an addition to their team or a deadline trade chip.

9:11	Paul Swydan: No se. Maybe he’s being choosy.

9:12	Paul: Normally I rule out keeping a guy for first-round cost, but this year I could keep Arenado and wonder if I should since I’m picking last in the first round (10 team, H2H, 5×5 OBP). Worth it over guys like Salazar (9th rd), Carlos Martinez (14), Matz (16), or Aaron Sanchez (20)?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Arenado is fair. His ADP right now is 4-5. https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think I ride with Arenado over your other choices. Salazar and Matz make me nervous.

9:13	Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: I will be hearing back from graduate schools soon and will have to decide where to spend the next 5 years of my life. What’s the best timezone to watch baseball from? (I support a team on and currently live in the east coast.)

9:14

Paul Swydan: I’m biased since I lived in it for 8 years, but the Mountain time zone was fantastic. When you get home from work around 5:30, it’s the bottom of the first/top of the second, and on summer nights, the game is over with plenty of time to go out for the night. It’s also great for football. Games start at 10 am, which is the perfect time, I think. 9 am on the west coast is too early. You’re not really awake yet.

9:14	bl27: Do you expect a strong season for Kendrys Morales ? ,275-30-90 ?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Morales has only hit 30 homers in 2 of the last 8 years. I wouldn’t bank on that from him, no.

9:15	Mike_C: Another hard throwing pitcher goes down. At this point we just need to appreciate and enjoy Syndergaard while he lasts.

9:15	Paul Swydan: For sure.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Given the Mets’ track record, it might not be too long before he goes down. (ducks)

9:16	Minty: Nola with his elbow or Jon Gray with Coors for fantasy?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Gray!

9:16	Caldwell: Your All Valentine’s team needs more of the Babe!

9:16	Paul Swydan: Oh. Duh.

9:16	Bork en Espanol: LF/1B — Babe Herman

9:16	Paul Swydan: The less heralded Babe!

9:16	Woodrow the Impaler: What about Corey Hart?

9:16	Paul Swydan: That’s a good one.

9:17	Bork en Espanol: C — Gabby Hartnett

9:17	Paul Swydan: Yes!

9:17	Stevil: Is there a worse fake holiday than Valentine’s day anywhere else in the world?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I mean, maybe, I’m no expert on other culture’s holidays, but in this culture, Valentine’s Day is easily the worst.

9:17	Andrew: Pete Rose should definitely be in this lineup.

9:18	Paul Swydan: D’oh!

9:18	Paul Swydan: He’ll bet on your love.

9:18	Jason : What figure is higher: The IQ score of the smartest fangraphs employee or Bryce Harper’s 2017 wRC+?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Carson or Cameron’s IQ is close to 200, so I’ll say that.

9:18	Caldwell: Brent Honeywell?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm.

9:19	Paul Swydan: No, he hasn’t debuted yet.

9:19	Paul Swydan: If I was including minor leaguers, I’d have to include Petey Paramore.

9:19	einstein2u: who worries you more? strasburg, degrom, harvey for this year?

9:20	Paul Swydan: deGrom is the only one who worries me, because I’ve already written off Strasburg and Harvey.

9:20	Paul Swydan: If Strasburg and Harvey are ever good again, that’d be marvelous, but I’m no longer considering them elite pitchers.

9:21	JC: No way Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Lugo, and Gsellman all make it out of Spring healthy, right? Maybe 5 of them? Hey that’s all you need!

9:22	Paul Swydan: One step at a time, one punch at a time, one round at a time.

9:22	Paul Swydan:

9:22	Seanto: how real is willy adames?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s a living, breathing human being, I’m pretty sure of that.

9:23	Paul Swydan: How good he is as a player? I’m excited. 20-year-old shortstops who put up 135 wRC+’s in Double-A are about as real as it gets.

9:23	Kevin: Can we talk about DJ lemahieu. He was a buy for me last year but I think the Ian Desmond acquisition kills his value. Agree?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Disagree. I don’t think Desmond affects his value at all.

9:24	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Candy Maldonado.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Great call.

9:24	Gerg: Bobby Valentine would definitely manage the team, and play by play by Howie Rose

9:24	Paul Swydan: Bobby V can be player/manager. Rose can be bench coach, ha.

9:24	Kevin: my roommate wont close the refrigerator door and it wont stop beeping….just an update on my day

9:24	Paul Swydan: That is the worst.

9:25	Paul Swydan: My kids have learned to follow their mother’s example of never shutting off any light ever. It drives me up a wall.

9:25	Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: Chris Archer (think Cupid)

9:25	Paul Swydan: Ehhhhh, I think we’ve got better names on the pitching staff. But I like where your head’s at.

9:25	Keith Hernandez: Is Cespedes a 5 win player in 2017?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:25	New Guy: In a head to head categories keep forever league (standard 5×5) would you rather have Dahl or Sano? Have Arenado at 3B so will be using Sano at OF if I keep him this year. Thanks!

9:26	Paul Swydan: Right now, I don’t think Sano is special enough to keep as an OF. But it’s keep forever….tough. Can’t blame if you keep Dahl.

9:26	Kevin: how deep of a fantasy leadgue do you have to be in to draft Sandoval? Seems good value in a 15 teamer

9:26	Paul Swydan: 15 teamer is probably right. Or any AL-only league.

9:26	Don: Who’s more likely to get 4 WAR this year: Carlos Rodon or Yoan Moncada?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Rodon

9:26	Blue Devil: Should the catcher be ty flowers?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Nah, I like the current catcher names better. But that’s a good thought!

9:27	Justin: Can keep oh or Contreras in 16th round…Who you got?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Normally I’d say go with the position player. But if Mr. Cute Pants Maddon is going to cut into Contreras’ playing time with Schwarber, then you gotta go to Oh.

9:28	bill: Jim Ray Hart

9:28	Paul Swydan: Noted!

9:28	Paul Swydan: Pretty mad I missed on the Hart’s and the Babe’s.

9:28	Paul Swydan: But I’m glad you all are here to keep me in check!

9:28	Seanto: obtuse relevant question of the night: who really IS mitch haniger?

9:28	Paul Swydan: A baseball player? Probably a 1-2 WAR baseball player.

9:28	Kevin: Followup to DJ lemahieu. He had roughly 66% of his ABs batting 2nd last year. You don’t think hes more likely to hit 7th or 8th with Dahl, Desmond and Blackmon rotating the top 3 spots?

9:30	Paul Swydan: We’ll see. He literally just won a batting title. I think he’ll probably start the year at the top of the order. Even if he is bumped down, that isn’t going to cut into his value enough to make him a worthless player in fantasy.

9:30	Pitts: Why so many Baez’s on the depth chart? I don’t quite see its connection to Valentine’s Day

9:30	Paul Swydan: Bae-z

9:30	Paul Swydan: The kids say “bae” a lot.

9:30	Moltar : Rich “El Guapo” Garces

9:30	Paul Swydan: Hahaha.

9:30	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: John Valentin

9:31	Paul Swydan: He’s on there!

9:31	Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: Wait there was a guy called Baby Doll Jacobson worth 25 WAR and he’s nowhere to be found on the depth chart? What is general manager John Hart doing?! http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1006316&position=OF

9:31	Paul Swydan: Oh that’s a good one.

9:31	Don: Should the Cubs trade Jake Arrieta for a pitcher with more years of control? Or do you think Theo is comfortable with signing him to a huge contract?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Uh, no. The Cubs should be trying to win the World Series. Trading Arrieta is not going to help them achieve that goal.

9:32	J. Peterman: Jon Singleton for the sad, lonely aspect?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Let’s keep an optimistic tone here, Petah-boy.

9:32	mark: Are you a believer in Gleyber Torres?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I am!

9:32	mark: Any chance Machado continues to get some play at ss from year to year?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I think there’s a good chance of that, yes.

9:32	v2micca: I’ve been very vocally bearish on Sean Newcomb as a starter. Have you seen anything to indicate I am off in my assessment?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Well, he maintained his K% last year while cutting his BB% by four percent, so while that BB% is still high, I’m more optimistic now than I was at this time last year.

9:33	Paul Swydan: The sample size was higher in ’16, too.

9:34	Paul Swydan: The bump in his ERA last year likely had a lot to do with the rise in his BABIP and drop in his LOB%.

9:34	v2micca: What do the Braves do if this year Swanson struggles, Albies doesnt makes the leap and their top pitching fails to develop? Do they try to ride it out another year or something more drastic?

9:34	Paul Swydan: They’re riding it out for another year regardless. They’re not ready to compete for a playoff spot this season.

9:35	Dave: How much do you think KC improved themselves with late signings of Hammel, Moss, Wood and Maness?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Conservatively, 2-3 wins. Which should be enough to keep them in the Wild Card discussion.

9:35	Mazaeus: Personally, I am surprised Caratini has so few votes. I’ve never heard of him! And rivals should vote for someone inferior

9:35	Paul Swydan: Honesty is the best policy. I had never heard of him either, to be honest. But he is on our depth chart, so I figured, why not?

9:36	Mike: Spring Training is almost here. And I’m in the best shape of my life. What about you?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Definitely not. But I haven’t gained any weight since new year’s, so let’s bank that in the win column, shall we?

9:36	bl27: the trade of Brandon Phillips is a very good news for Peraza. 2nd in batting order ?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t worry about his spot in the batting order just yet. He gets to play, and that is great news.

9:37

Mitch: First pick in a taxi draft and trying to pick between Bellinger and Jimenez (top guys left). Taxi draft is after our auction. Which option do you like most:
1) Take either guy 1.1 (leaning Jimenez)
2) Bid on Bellinger for MLB team in the auction and hope he gets called up before taxi draft (May) so then I could get Jimenez at 1.1

Not confident Bellinger is on the Dodgers roster come May.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’m also not confident in Bellinger being on the Dodgers roster come May.

9:38	Hmm: What’s more likely, G Sanchez has a better year than Sal Perez, or T Turner has better year than A Simmons?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think both of those things are pretty likely, but I’ll say Turner > Simmons is more likely.

9:38	Wilson Ramos: Matt Wieters is a solid C to sign to replace me ?

9:38	Paul Swydan: No, Wieters is not good.

9:38	Paul Swydan: But he is still willing to be a catcher…

9:39

Mike: I was playing around with the auction calculator on the roto setting (don’t play roto, H2H). Anyway, I found it interesting that Chapman and Miller were ranked ahead of guys like Lester. In my draft (H2H), should I prioritize the elite relievers rather than going for a SP2? The thing I keep coming back to was that last year I had three really good relivers who did a good job holding down the ratios. I guess my question is: I am struggling with SP and RP valuation. How can I become better at figuring out my SP/RP strategy?

9:39	Paul Swydan: This will always be the eternal struggle.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Personally, I don’t go for RP1 before SP2 unless I have nailed every pick up to that point. Which is rare.

9:40	CarrotJuice: Alex Reyes needs TJ surgery because baseball hates us and wants us to suffer.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Yes, the poor Cardinals fans. Man, St. Louis is NEVER good!

9:40	Mike: Ive never watched the Simpsons in my life

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think legally you can be deported to Greenland for such an act of treason.

9:40

Pip: The Nats just signed Adam Lind for a guaranteed 1.5 Million. Their three free agent signings now basically cover what Danny Espinosa would have made in arbitration. Is it possible they are simply bargain hunting, so they can establish their “full team’s” base salary, before picking up someone, like Robinson’s contract? Or do you think they just simply don’t want to spend more?

9:41

Paul Swydan: Oh it’s a combination. The latter forces them into the former, and the front office is doing the best it can. Make no mistake, Ted Lerner is one of the richest people alive. Another $10-15 million to upgrade their bench would be a literal drop in the bucket for him. But he, like most owners, is only willing to win at a price.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Just remember that the next time you’re wondering if you should buy a $20 shirsey or a $200 jersey.

9:42	baby bull: Which AL Central 3B has best year, Jose Ramirez, Miguel Sano, Moustakas?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I hope it’s Sano, but I’ll say Ramirez.

9:42	Woodrow the Impaler: Allo Paul!

9:42	Paul Swydan: Hi Woodrow the Impaler!

9:43

Bill: 5×5 roto with OBP replacing BA, and $500 cap. Five keepers among: Odor at $26 (can keep 1 year): Sano at $21 (can keep 2 years); Moncada at $11 (can keep up to 3 years); Kepler at $11; Cotton or Bundy, each each be kept at $11 (can keep 3 years) or Urias at 15, or C Rodon or Blake Snell at $17 (can keep 3 years); Any consideration for R Schimpf at $11 in OBP league v Odor at $26

9:43	Paul Swydan: Wow, $500 cap! That’s the highest cap I’ve ever heard of.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Odor, Sano, Moncada, Urias, Cotton/Snell/Rodon

9:44	Paul Swydan: Some consideration for Schimpf, but Odor will be an easy trade candidate if you want to deal him and I doubt Schimpf will be.

9:45

Pip: Can we agree that the idea of trading Victor Robles for David Robertson, even if the Chi Sox ate his whole contract, is crazy? Isn’t the surplus value of a top 10-15 prospect at least $50 million? Obviously there is risk in Robles but is it really that much more than Robertson, who seems ( or could) be trending downward?

9:46

Paul Swydan: It is probably crazy. However, as we discussed, the Nats’ have one hand tied behind their back by their stingy (relatively speaking) owner, and another tied behind their back because they need to try to win before Harper leaves. So while you’d like to see them extract more value from Robles, I won’t be surprised if they end up doing something like that to get a closer.

9:47	Moltar : Downright stumped on my last keeper. Bregman or Dahl? Dahl or Bregman? H2H points, same cost. They seem so even to me.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Steamer says Bregman. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=l28959

9:48	Paul Swydan: FANS are more evenly split on the matter. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fan&team=0&lg=all&players=l28959

9:48	Paul Swydan: So, you’re not wrong, it’s very close. I’d let your positional needs dictate it.

9:48	baby bull: what farm system would you choose? NYY, ATL, BOS, CHW

9:49	Paul Swydan: NYY probably. But I’m far from the expert on this. They’re all good. Probably BOS is the most depleted currently of the four.

9:49	Woodrow the Impaler: I’m defending my flag in a 10 team N.L. only 5×5 keeper league and was hoping you can help me choose among Willson Contreras ($5), Jose Peraza ($7), and Gregory Polanco ($24) as my final keep. Already hanging on to Bryant and Blackmon at $17 and $15 respectively. Thanks, dood!!

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’d roll with Contreras.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I like Polanco a lot, but I also like having $19 to spend.

9:50	harmony: FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS all project Seattle catcher Mike Zunino with a significantly higher 2017 WAR than Boston catcher Blake Swihart, who is only one year younger than Zunino. Who is the better catcher going forward?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Well, you have to have an opportunity to catch to be a good catcher, and ole Johnny Farrell has made his displeasure with Swihart’s catching ability pretty well known.

9:51	David Coonce: Is the fact that the Reds basically gave away Brandon Phillips for absolutely nothing, while eating his entire contract, a pretty good indication that he has no value?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I think it’s a pretty good indication that Phillips asked to go home to Atlanta. Which is his right.

9:52	Mikey Betts : How much hype would Andrew Benintendi get if he played in Seattle and his name was Jason Wentzel ?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Same!

9:52	Curious: or charlie manlove

9:52	Paul Swydan: Charlie Manlove just missed the cut!

9:52	Curious: Mike Koplove

9:52	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure he’s ont here.

9:52	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Richie Sexson

9:52	Paul Swydan: Oh!

9:52	Don: It’s “jirt”, not “shirsey”!!

9:53	Paul Swydan: This is news to me. I like shirsey better. Jirt sounds like a swear.

9:53	Bl27: Do you expect the same stats (2016) for Jose Ramirez this season ?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Not quite as good, but I do expect him to be good.

9:53	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Ron Darling

9:53	Paul Swydan: He’s on there!

9:53	Curious: Does Richie Sexson work? Or are we keeping this PG?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Walking the line. There are a couple of names I refrained from using, but I think Sexson is OK.

9:54	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Bobby Wine

9:54	Paul Swydan: Ha. He’s like Flowers. Close, but not quite close enough.

9:54	Kevin: Chances Jean segura is Charlie Blackmon circa 2014? Nobody believed in Blackmon after his breakout year and now hes a top 20 player perrenially

9:55	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s a lack of faith in Segura as much as it is Segura’s personal tragedy threw off the trajectory of his career. I think we’d all like to believe in Segura, personally.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I know I would.

9:55	Keith Hernandez: Darryl “Chocolate Covered” Strawberry

9:56	Paul Swydan: Same category as Flowers and Wine

9:56	Campy: At some point, do teams start teaching their pitching prospects to use 90 percent of their max effort on fastballs as a way to keep them healthy?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t know if you can teach that. Maybe you can, maybe you can’t. That’s really a question a coach or instructor would be better equipped to answer than me.

9:57	Paul Swydan: It obviously makes a good deal of sense, but the trick is in the application.

9:57	Darius: Darvish at $12 or Andrew Miller at $3?

9:57	Paul Swydan: You can’t have both? I’ll say Darvish, but that is damn close.

9:57	Minty: Forget Don. I’ve only ever heard them called shirsey

9:57	Paul Swydan: Cool.