FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market.
Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.
What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years.
Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation.
Players are ranked by total median projected contract value — and then, in such cases where players have received the same median contract estimate, by the total average contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2015. Offensive and defensive value are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here.
#1 David Price (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 220.1 | 9.19 | 1.92 | 40.4 % | 2.45 | 2.78 | 3.24 | 7.1 | 6.4 |
Median Years: 7
Median AAV: $28 million
Total: $196 million
Average Years: 6.9
Average AAV: $27.5 million
Total: $190.8 million
#2 Jason Heyward (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 25 | 610 | 9.2 % | 14.8 % | .293 | .359 | .439 | .346 | 121 | 21.6 | 16.4 | 6.0 |
Median Years: 8
Median AAV: $23 million
Total: $184 million
Average Years: 7.7
Average AAV: $22.7 million
Total: $174.7 million
Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.
Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.
#3 Zack Greinke (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 222.2 | 8.08 | 1.62 | 48.0 % | 1.66 | 2.76 | 3.22 | 10.0 | 5.9 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $26 million
Total: $156 million
Average Years: 5.8
Average AAV: $26.7 million
Total: $155.3 million
*Assumes he opts out of the three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, which he’s expected to do.
#4 Yoenis Cespedes (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 676 | 4.9 % | 20.9 % | .291 | .328 | .542 | .367 | 135 | 31.2 | 10.6 | 6.7 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million
Average Years: 6.0
Average AAV: $21.5 million
Total: $128.4million
This guy really has the goods, doesn’t he?
Agree: 45%.
Strongly Agree: 29%.
Stupid Question: 15%.
Disagree: 10%.
Strongly Disagree: 1%.
#5 Johnny Cueto (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 212.0 | 7.47 | 1.95 | 42.5 % | 3.44 | 3.53 | 3.78 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million
Average Years: 5.5
Average AAV: $21.0 million
Total: $115.6 million
#6 Jordan Zimmermann (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 201.2 | 7.32 | 1.74 | 42.0 % | 3.66 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $21 million
Total: $126 million
Average Years: 5.6
Average AAV: $20.8 million
Total: $116.8 million
Will the Nationals extend Zimmermann a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 99%. No: 1%.
Will Zimmermann accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.
#7 Justin Upton (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 27 | 620 | 11.0 % | 25.6 % | .251 | .336 | .454 | .340 | 120 | 18.8 | -4.6 | 3.6 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $120 million
Average Years: 6.4
Average AAV: $20.4 million
Total: $129.7 million
Will the Padres extend Upton a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 100%. No: 0%.
Will Upton accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.
#8 Chris Davis (1B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 670 | 12.5 % | 31.0 % | .262 | .361 | .562 | .390 | 147 | 36.3 | -5.5 | 5.6 |
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $100 million
Average Years: 5.3
Average AAV: $20.5 million
Total: $109.3 million
Imagine to yourself 1,000 different universes. In how many of them do the Orioles extend a qualifying offer to Chris Davis?
100% of them: 46%.
Somehow more than 100% of them: 45%.
99% of them: 9%.
#9 Alex Gordon (3B/OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 422 | 11.6 % | 21.8 % | .271 | .377 | .432 | .351 | 122 | 10.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: $90 million
Average Years: 4.9
Average AAV: $18.6 million
Total: $92.2 million
After Gordon declines his $12.5M player option, the Royals will extend Gordon a qualifying offer ($15.8M). Will he accept it?
No: 100%.
#10 Jeff Samardzija (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 30 | 214.0 | 6.86 | 2.06 | 39.0 % | 4.96 | 4.23 | 4.31 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: $64 million
Average Years: 4.3
Average AAV: $16.2 million
Total: $69.7 million
Will the White Sox extend Samardzija a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 92%. No: 8%.
Will Samardzija accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.
What mnemonic device, if any, do you employ to spell correctly this player’s surname?
Top Response #1: Google his name and let it auto-correct me.
Top Response #2: Wait, mnemonic device starts with an “m”?
Top Response #3: The black void swallows us all.
#11 Ian Desmond (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 641 | 7.0 % | 29.2 % | .233 | .290 | .384 | .294 | 83 | -7.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $60 million
Average Years: 4.2
Average AAV: $14.4 million
Total: $59.9 million
Will the Nationals extend Desmond a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 81%. No: 19%.
Will Desmond accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.
#12 Mike Leake (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 27 | 192.0 | 5.58 | 2.30 | 51.8 % | 3.70 | 4.20 | 3.93 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million
Average Years: 4.4
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $61.4 million
#13 Yovani Gallardo (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 184.1 | 5.91 | 3.32 | 49.3 % | 3.42 | 4.00 | 4.31 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million
Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $55.2 million
Will the Rangers extend Gallardo a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 89%. No: 11%.
Will Gallardo accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 91%. Yes: 9%.
#14 Dexter Fowler (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 690 | 12.2 % | 22.3 % | .250 | .346 | .411 | .333 | 110 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million
Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $13.8 million
Total: $54.3 million
Will the Cubs extend Fowler a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 76%. No: 24%.
Will Fowler accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.
#15 Wei-Yin Chen (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 191.1 | 7.20 | 1.93 | 40.5 % | 3.34 | 4.16 | 4.01 | 4.2 | 2.8 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million
Average Years: 3.8
Average AAV: $13.1 million
Total: $50.2 million
Will the Orioles extend Chen a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 71%. No: 29%.
Will Chen accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.
#16 Howie Kendrick (2B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 495 | 5.5 % | 16.6 % | .295 | .336 | .409 | .325 | 109 | 7.1 | -2.8 | 2.1 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million
Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $13.2 million
Total: $48.5 million
Will the Dodgers extend Kendrick a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 73%. No: 27%.
Will Kendrick accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 79%. Yes: 21%.
Without looking, guess which figure is closest to Kendrick’s career BABIP over nearly 5,000 plate appearances.
Median guess (selected from range of .260-.350 by 10-point increments): .320.
#17 Matt Wieters (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 282 | 7.4 % | 23.8 % | .267 | .319 | .422 | .321 | 100 | -2.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million
Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $47.1 million
Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 64%. No: 36%.
Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.
#18 Daniel Murphy (2B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 30 | 538 | 5.8 % | 7.1 % | .281 | .322 | .449 | .325 | 110 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million
Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $46.2 million
Will the Mets extend Murphy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.
Will Murphy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 73%. Yes: 27%.
#19 Scott Kazmir (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 183.0 | 7.62 | 2.90 | 42.9 % | 3.10 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million
Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.6 million
Total: $47.8 million
#20 Ben Zobrist (2B/OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 34 | 535 | 11.6 % | 10.5 % | .276 | .359 | .450 | .349 | 123 | 13.3 | -11.5 | 2.1 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million
Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.1 million
Total: $46.3 million
#21 Hisashi Iwakuma (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 34 | 129.2 | 7.70 | 1.46 | 50.4 % | 3.54 | 3.74 | 3.27 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million
Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $14.5 million
Total: $42.8 million
Will the Mariners extend Iwakuma a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.
Will Iwakuma accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.
#22 Colby Rasmus (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 28 | 485 | 9.7 % | 31.8 % | .238 | .314 | .475 | .339 | 115 | 13.4 | -3.0 | 2.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million
Average Years: 3.4
Average AAV: $12.4 million
Total: $42.5 million
Will the Astros extend Rasmus a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.
Will Rasmus accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 75%. Yes: 25%.
#23 Marco Estrada (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 181.0 | 6.51 | 2.73 | 32.2 % | 3.13 | 4.40 | 4.93 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million
Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $37.4 million
Will the Blue Jays extend Estrada a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 58%. Yes: 42%.
Will Estrada accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 53%. Yes: 47%.
Were you to inform your past self from, like, a month ago that you were contemplating Marco Estrada’s potential receipt of a qualifying offer, would your past self believe you?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.
#24 Ian Kennedy (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 30 | 168.1 | 9.30 | 2.78 | 38.5 % | 4.28 | 4.51 | 3.70 | -0.3 | 0.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million
Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.2 million
Total: $37.1 million
Will the Padres extend Kennedy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.
Will Kennedy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 62%. Yes: 38%.
#25 Denard Span (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 275 | 9.1 % | 9.5 % | .301 | .365 | .431 | .348 | 120 | 8.9 | -4.0 | 1.4 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million
Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $35.4 million
Will the Nationals extend Span a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.
Will Span accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 32 | 172.0 | 7.90 | 2.35 | 41.6 % | 3.61 | 3.41 | 3.69 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million
Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $11.0 million
Total: $30.6 million
#27 Brett Anderson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 27 | 180.1 | 5.79 | 2.30 | 66.3 % | 3.69 | 3.94 | 3.51 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million
Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $11.1 million
Total: $30.1 million
Will the Dodgers extend Anderson a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 54%. Yes: 46%.
Will Anderson accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 52%. Yes: 48%.
#28 John Lackey (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 36 | 218.0 | 7.22 | 2.19 | 46.0 % | 2.77 | 3.57 | 3.77 | 5.9 | 3.6 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $30 million
Average Years: 2.4
Average AAV: $14.9 million
Total: $35.0 million
Will the Cardinals extend Lackey a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 85%. No: 15%.
Will Lackey accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.
#29 Austin Jackson (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 28 | 527 | 5.5 % | 23.9 % | .267 | .311 | .385 | .305 | 94 | -3.4 | 8.3 | 2.3 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $30 million
Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $9.9 million
Total: $27.3 million
#30 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 29 | 551 | 6.5 % | 19.4 % | .265 | .315 | .430 | .319 | 104 | 3.3 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $27 million
Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: $25.9 million
#31 Gerardo Parra (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 28 | 589 | 4.8 % | 15.6 % | .291 | .328 | .452 | .334 | 108 | 7.4 | -22.1 | 0.4 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $24 million
Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $27.1 million
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 27 | 116.1 | 7.74 | 2.48 | 43.9 % | 4.95 | 3.72 | 3.69 | -0.1 | 1.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $22 million
Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $10.3 million
Total: $22.2 million
#33 Darren O’Day (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 32 | 65.1 | 11.30 | 1.93 | 35.1 % | 1.52 | 2.49 | 3.05 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $21 million
Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $20.8 million
#34 Doug Fister (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 103.0 | 5.50 | 2.10 | 44.6 % | 4.19 | 4.55 | 4.46 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $10.5 million
Total: $20.9 million
Will the Nationals extend Fister a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.
Will Fister accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
Yes: 74%. No: 26%.
What percentage of Fister’s appearances in 2016 will come in a starting capacity?
Median answer (selected from range of 0%-100% by 10% increments): 90%.
#35 R.A. Dickey (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 40 | 214.1 | 5.29 | 2.56 | 41.9 % | 3.91 | 4.48 | 4.72 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million
Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $10.6 million
Total: $17.0 million
The Blue Jays hold a $12.0M option on Dickey’s contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 77%. No: 23%.
#36 David Freese (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 470 | 6.6 % | 22.8 % | .257 | .323 | .420 | .325 | 110 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million
Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $9.5 million
Total: $23.8 million
#37 Mike Napoli (C/1B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 33 | 469 | 12.2 % | 25.2 % | .224 | .324 | .410 | .321 | 98 | -3.8 | -5.4 | 0.7 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $16.2 million
#38 Mike Pelfrey (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 164.2 | 4.70 | 2.46 | 51.0 % | 4.26 | 4.00 | 4.45 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million
Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $8.1 million
Total: $16.9 million
#39 Alexei Ramirez (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 33 | 622 | 5.0 % | 10.9 % | .249 | .285 | .357 | .279 | 72 | -25.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $8.2 million
Total: $16.2 million
The White Sox hold a $10.0M option on Ramirez’ contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 54%. No: 46%.
#40 Juan Uribe (3B/SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 36 | 397 | 8.6 % | 20.2 % | .253 | .320 | .417 | .319 | 104 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million
Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $7.8 million
Total: $12.7 million
#41 Joakim Soria (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 67.2 | 8.51 | 2.53 | 42.3 % | 2.53 | 3.71 | 3.57 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million
Average Years: 2.3
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $16.9 million
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 33 | 392 | 7.7 % | 6.4 % | .287 | .353 | .380 | .326 | 112 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 1.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million
Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $7.6 million
Total: $15.7 million
The Giants hold a $5.5M option on Aoki’s contract ($0.7M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.
#43 Alex Avila (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 28 | 219 | 18.3 % | 30.1 % | .191 | .339 | .287 | .294 | 82 | -5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $16.1 million
#44 Chris Iannetta (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 317 | 12.9 % | 26.2 % | .188 | .293 | .335 | .281 | 80 | -11.0 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $14.2 million
#45 Steve Pearce (1B/OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 325 | 7.1 % | 21.2 % | .218 | .289 | .422 | .308 | 91 | -3.5 | -3.9 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.1 million
Total: $13.8 million
#46 Will Venable (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 390 | 9.5 % | 24.1 % | .244 | .320 | .350 | .296 | 87 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $13.0 million
#47 Chris Young (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 356 | 8.4 % | 20.5 % | .252 | .320 | .453 | .332 | 109 | 3.6 | -4.3 | 1.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.6 million
Total: $12.3 million
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 216 | 13.0 % | 18.1 % | .286 | .380 | .459 | .364 | 136 | 4.4 | -5.3 | 0.7 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $10.9 million
#49 Dioner Navarro (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 192 | 8.9 % | 15.1 % | .246 | .307 | .374 | .296 | 84 | -5.1 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.9 million
#50 Alejandro De Aza (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 31 | 365 | 8.5 % | 23.0 % | .262 | .333 | .422 | .326 | 104 | 4.5 | -4.9 | 1.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.2 million
#51 Rajai Davis (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 34 | 370 | 5.9 % | 20.5 % | .258 | .306 | .440 | .320 | 101 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million
Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $9.4 million
#52 Mark Buehrle (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 36 | 198.2 | 4.12 | 1.49 | 45.9 % | 3.81 | 4.26 | 4.46 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $10.8 million
Total: $14.7 million
This offseason, Mark Buehrle will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Retire: 58%. Not Retire: 42%.
#53 Bartolo Colon (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 42 | 194.2 | 6.29 | 1.11 | 42.3 % | 4.16 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $9.8 million
Total: $13.1 million
This offseason, Bartolo Colon will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Not Retire: 83%. Retire: 17%
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 54.1 | 10.27 | 2.48 | 38.8 % | 1.99 | 2.93 | 3.34 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $9.9 million
#55 J.P. Howell (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 32 | 44.0 | 7.98 | 2.86 | 60.3 % | 1.43 | 3.34 | 3.53 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $8.8 million
#56 Tommy Hunter (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 28 | 60.1 | 7.01 | 2.09 | 44.9 % | 4.18 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million
Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $4.7 million
Total: $8.8 million
#57 Bud Norris (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 30 | 83.0 | 7.70 | 3.36 | 43.4 % | 6.72 | 5.04 | 4.29 | -1.7 | 0.0 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $9 million
Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.4 million
Total: $10.6 million
Will Norris make the majority of his 2016 appearances in a starting or relief capacity?
Starting: 60%. Relief: 40%.
#58 Chase Utley (2B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 36 | 423 | 7.6 % | 15.1 % | .212 | .286 | .343 | .274 | 71 | -13.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $10.2 million
The Dodgers appear to hold an $11.0M option ($2.0M buyout) on Utley’s 2016 season. Will they exercise it?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.
#59 Antonio Bastardo (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 29 | 57.1 | 10.05 | 4.08 | 31.0 % | 2.98 | 3.33 | 4.27 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $9.4 million
#60 Shawn Kelley (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 51.1 | 11.05 | 2.63 | 42.7 % | 2.45 | 2.57 | 2.91 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $9.0 million
#61 Jimmy Rollins (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 36 | 563 | 7.8 % | 15.3 % | .224 | .285 | .358 | .283 | 80 | -15.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $8.8 million
Rather than playing at all, do you think Rollins will retire this offseason?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 32 | 55.0 | 9.98 | 1.96 | 40.3 % | 1.96 | 2.57 | 2.83 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million
Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $7.3 million
#63 Justin Morneau (1B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 34 | 182 | 7.1 % | 13.7 % | .310 | .363 | .458 | .353 | 107 | 2.4 | -3.7 | 0.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $10.7 million
#64 Alfredo Simon (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 34 | 187.0 | 5.63 | 3.27 | 43.6 % | 5.05 | 4.77 | 4.78 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.9 million
Total: $10.6 million
#65 Marlon Byrd (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 37 | 544 | 5.3 % | 26.7 % | .247 | .290 | .453 | .317 | 100 | 0.3 | -7.8 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $9.8 million
The Giants hold a $8.0M option on Byrd’s contract. Will they exercise it?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.
#66 Shane Victorino (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 34 | 204 | 7.8 % | 15.7 % | .230 | .308 | .292 | .271 | 68 | -5.6 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $8.9 million
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 35 | 29.0 | 11.17 | 1.55 | 48.4 % | 1.55 | 2.27 | 2.50 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.5 million
Total: $9.9 million
Given the paucity of information regarding Hill but also the quality of his late-season run, his is the most compelling/least predictable free-agent case of the offseason.
True: 53%. False: 47%.
#68 Tim Lincecum (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 76.1 | 7.07 | 4.48 | 44.3 % | 4.13 | 4.29 | 4.64 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.0 million
Total: $9.9 million
Will Lincecum, who’s returning from season-ending surgery on his hip labrum, re-sign with the San Francisco?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.
#69 Chris Young (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 36 | 123.1 | 6.06 | 3.14 | 25.5 % | 3.06 | 4.52 | 5.33 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $7.9 million
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 34 | 411 | 3.6 % | 16.3 % | .255 | .287 | .353 | .279 | 72 | -11.8 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $6.2 million
Total: $7.7 million
#71 Trevor Cahill (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 27 | 43.1 | 7.48 | 3.32 | 63.1 % | 5.40 | 3.92 | 3.50 | -0.3 | 0.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million
Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: $8.4 million
The Cubs hold a $13.0M option on Cahill’s contract ($0.3M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 100%. Yes: 0%.
#72 Ryan Madson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 34 | 63.1 | 8.24 | 1.99 | 55.0 % | 2.13 | 3.09 | 3.32 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $5.5 million
Total: $8.1 million
#73 Jonathan Broxton (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 31 | 60.1 | 9.40 | 3.28 | 52.8 % | 4.62 | 3.65 | 3.24 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $6.6 million
Broxton’s contract features a mutual option for $9.0M in 2016 ($2.0M buyout). Will Broxton exercise his half of the deal?
Yes: 94%. No: 6%.
Will the Cardinals exercise theirs?
No: 97%. Yes: 3%.
#74 David Murphy (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 33 | 391 | 5.1 % | 12.5 % | .283 | .318 | .421 | .318 | 103 | -0.1 | -9.8 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $6.4 million
The Angels hold a $7.0M option on Murphy’s contract ($0.5M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 85%. Yes: 15%.
Murphy has averaged precisely 0.0 WAR over the last three seasons. Would you consider him the “quintessential replacement-level player”?
Yes: 55%. No: 45%.
#75 Geovany Soto (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 210 | 10.0 % | 30.0 % | .219 | .301 | .406 | .311 | 94 | -1.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $6.3 million
#76 Matt Joyce (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 30 | 284 | 10.6 % | 23.6 % | .174 | .272 | .291 | .255 | 62 | -14.5 | -7.8 | -1.4 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million
#77 Brandon Morrow (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 30 | 33.0 | 6.27 | 1.91 | 47.4 % | 2.73 | 3.56 | 3.72 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million
Morrow failed to pitch even 55 innings for the third consecutive year. Will the majority of his 2016 appearances be recorded in a starting or relief capacity?
Relief: 69%. Starting: 31%.
#78 Jeremy Guthrie (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 36 | 148.1 | 5.10 | 2.67 | 34.4 % | 5.95 | 5.62 | 5.11 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.3 million
Total: $5.0 million
Guthrie’s contract features a $10M mutual option (with $3.2M buyout) for 2016. Will he exercise his portion of that option?
Yes: 95%. No: 5%.
Will the Royals exercise their portion?
No: 92%. Yes: 8%.
#79 Stephen Drew (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 32 | 428 | 8.6 % | 16.6 % | .201 | .271 | .381 | .284 | 76 | -14.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.0 million
#80 Joe Blanton (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 34 | 76.0 | 9.36 | 1.89 | 48.6 % | 2.84 | 2.92 | 3.01 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.7 million
Total: $4.5 million
#81 Kelly Johnson (2B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| 33 | 335 | 6.9 % | 24.2 % | .265 | .314 | .435 | .323 | 107 | 1.9 | -9.9 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $4.1 million
#82 Kyle Kendrick (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-Wins | WAR |
| 30 | 142.1 | 5.06 | 2.85 | 38.8 % | 6.32 | 6.12 | 5.09 | -0.5 | -1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million
Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $3.8 million
If there had been an option above for “minor league deal,” would you have selected that instead?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I think the author is Juan Uribe’s agent, or else I have to wonder why a guy is listed as a “3B/SS” when he’s played 5 games at short since 2010.
Alex Gordon (3B/OF) is a similar grace note. In 2011 he played at first base in seven games. Otherwise, he has played only left field since 2010 (and even then, only eleven corner infield games). And his early career at third was kind of a disaster, so I don’t think anyone’s going to be jumping at the chance to move him back there.
Bummer. I was really hoping for a post showing the top 86 free agents.
And I for the top 79. Sadly, we are both disappointed.
Why no 82 page slide show? I’m bummed.
I guess the average fan does not understand how qualifying offers work. There is NO way the Mets would NOT extend a QO to Murphy; just like there is NO way he would accept it
Weren’t there serious questions a few weeks ago (before his post-season HR barrage) about whether he would be offered a QO? It didn’t seem like a guarantee.
What I want to know is who are the 2% that think Heyward won’t be offered one, or that he would actually accept it?
Those 2%? They’re the ones who think the moon landing was staged. And the pyramids were used to store grain.
Despite his nice DS/CS performance, Murphy’s a pretty borderline candidate. Stephen Drew’s 3.4-WAR 2013 performance earned him a QO followed by difficulty in obtaining employment. They are, of course, different types of players; though Mr. Drew’s 2013 was better than Mr. Murphy’s 2015, the latter has been more consistent in the recent past and derives more value from skills teams are willing to pay for.
Considering no one has yet to accept a QO, I wouldn’t put money on anyone being the first. But I don’t know that it should be an obvious choice on Murphy’s part. After all, the Mets (presumably) won’t be on the market to repeat the Cuddyer debacle with another questionable draft pick burn.
Murphy would have no problem finding a contract attached to a QO, even before his postseason performance.
As for how the Mets reach a decision about whether to make a qualifying offer, Alderson said: “Take it out of the Murphy context. I think you have to start with whether you want the player back. If you decide the answer is yes, then it’s easy to make a qualifying offer. If you decide no, then you get to the question of, for gamesmanship purposes, whether making a qualifying offer is a good idea. Murph has been a great player for us over the years. He’s been a Met over his entire career. So we’re going to make that decision a little later this week.”
Great stuff Carson! One thing, could you add a column to the spreadsheet with the number of votes each player received? I think that would be really interesting to look at.
(looks at ranking)
(nods head) Nice
I’m surprised you were that high really. You signed for $700,000 last year, I could see you gettng a raise but close to 1,000% seems higher than I would have thought.
I’m hoping my Cardinals make you their long reliever until the inevitable injury occurs.
That’s long TALL reliever to you, Bub.
Zobrist prediction seems low.
Zobrist 3/42 seems low considering half the league wants his services.
I guess we see Zobrist as our little treasure – no one knows how great he is except us.
The fangraphs crowd would all pitch in to offer him at least 4/64.
Considering even the backwards Royals saw him as a worthwhile pickup, I’m sure every team sees his value now. Of course, the Royals meant to ask for Ike Davis but a monkey spilled ink on the offer sheet in such a way as to change the name to Ben Zobrist. A crazy coincidence for sure, but considering the same thing happened on an earlier trade when Kyle Farnsworth was changed to Wade Davis, it can’t be that unusual.
If there’s a way to see how many votes were cast for each player that would be wonderful information to have? (unless I’m missing it somewhere)
This isn’t meant as a criticism, but this could have been formated better.
What is it meant as?
Possibilities for what it *might* have been meant as:
1. a casual insult
2. evidence that MjwW “likes” Carson and is a 5th grade boy
3. 1st in a long list of “what this could have been,” coming right before “a meatball sub”
4. a waste of our time from an idiot
Sure it is.
But that’s also ok.
Yes, I should have added that, too. Nothing wrong with criticism.
Mm…formating.
This isn’t meant as a criticism, but you could grow some balls.
David Price will sign for $1 million.
Are you talking about getting his autograph?
might wanna check that commenter’s username
Theres the idea out there that Heyward may want to test the market again when he’s ~32. I wonder if some people factored that in to their vote. Everything I’ve read says he’s almost certainly getting more than 8 years with an opt out clause.
I can’t see St. Louis giving Heyward (or anyone) the leverage of an opt-out. As an organization, they’re almost fanatical about meticulously mapping their budgets in both three and five-year plans. An opt-out is far too large of an uncontrolled variable.
Prediction! Cardinals will in fact sign him for 9/200 guaranteed, shaped as 14-16-18-22-24-26-26-27-27, with $3M deferred per year over each of the final six years of the deal. Also, two or three club options at roughly $22-24M apiece. Great player, great guy, someone the team would like to make a Redbird-for-remainder-of-his-life.
That could happen, for sure.
Or, you know, one of the other 29 teams in baseball might be content to give him a contract he’d rather sign. As it turns out, just because he has played for the Cardinals doesn’t mean he will always play for the Cardinals.
Not sure if you know, but there’s an American League team that plays in a joke of a stadium where LHH can hit home runs pretty easily. And that team both has a bunch of money and a history of signing players to contracts that include opt-outs. Not saying they’ll sign him, but they’re one of many who could.
Over/Under 75 of these players get a contract who’s total value is higher than the median projected here.
It will be under. To get under 75 that’s only 8 players. I would be shocked if none of these guys retired or ended up taking minor league deals and that right there would already cut into that list.
I also suspect a pitcher(s) like Fister will strongly consider a 1 year deal over a 2 so he can enter the weak market next year.
Those things right there I think will probably account for at least 5 players not getting a contract with a higher value. Of the rest I think there are at least 3 players up there who will get their projected amount or less.
I think something like an O/U of 65 or 70 would be better.
I probably should have phrased it in reverse: over under 8 players get a deal worth less than the average posted. Obviously a bunch of these guys have weird circumstances attached like options and whatnot, like you mentioned.
But in general, do we ever over-estimate contracts here?
It’s a sick sick world we live in where Jeremy Guthrie is anticipated to earn $4m next year and little kids are out there starving.
You mean, $10m
I see your point, but Jeremy Guthrie’s employer’s ability to pay him that much — and still turn a healthy profit and see massive ROI — makes me far more ill vis-a-vis child hunger.
Good news is that instead of feeling sick next time you want to watch a baseball game for 3 hours you can go volunteer at your local homeless shelter or charity organization. Do recognize that the professional athlete can get paid millions of dollars because you selfishly decide to watch sports for your own entertainment rather than help those in need. Makes me sick to think that while there are over a billion people starving out in the world and you still find the peace of mind to spend time reading baseball messaging boards and watch sports.
One’s choice of how one spends his or her time — which could, naturally, include allotting equal amounts of time to recreational and charitable pursuits (or further still, establishing a career toward charitable ends) — has little impact on the structural problems of the human society on this earth. We are not resolving food distribution issues in developing countries by logging ten hours a week at the neighborhood soup kitchen, nor through two years in Kenya in the Peace Corps (alas). Whether this is the correct venue for Mr. Henry’s malaise (or my somewhat pedantic but, I hope, labor-friendly nitpicking), watching baseball games or reading this site — perhaps done as short distractions while working toward the very ends you put forth — are not likely the difference between a world of great wealth and nutrition access equality and the one we live in today.
If cable subscribers had the ability to purchase only the channels they wanted (a la carte), then you might be correct. However, the vast majority of cable subscribers don’t watch ESPN or their local sports cable network, but they’re forced to pay for it as part of their cable subscription. (There’s been substantial coverage by Fangraphs on this, and how much cable sports network deals contribute to overall MLB team revenues.)
Unless you’re suggesting people stop subscribing to cable altogether, and stop attending MLB games.
So your argument is that you volunteering 10 hours a week wouldn’t solve world hunger or any other epistemic societal issue but somehow reallocating Jeremy Guthrie’s million dollar salary would be the final million out of 10’s of billions that finally ends it all. Sure.
One should always finish reading everything on baseball message boards and then send the leftovers to starving children in Ethiopia
Be heartened! The venerable Jeremy Guthrie gives abundantly to charity! So, your dollars and the dollars of oh so many other fans will work their way to the hands of the starving children, provided, of course, the corrupt monkey leaders of their respective countries do not first steal said dollars, which will almost certainly happen… Poor kids.
Didnt Buehrle already retire?
He probably should. Getting up there in age.
You guys should really wear shirts.
I’m constantly covered in BBQ sauce and pine tar. Shirts are a waste.
Seriously though, I’m pretty sure Buerhle said he was done after the last game of the season.
Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.
Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.
I think from these data points we can conclude that roughly 2% of Fangraphs readership either doesn’t know what they’re talking about or are just trying to screw with the poll results.
I charitably assumed that those 2% thought that the Cards would sign Heyward to a long contract before the QO comes into play.
EDIT: I just realized that, though my previous comment may explain the 2% who think they don’t give him a QO, it certainly cannot explain anyone thinking he accepts a QO if offered one.
Maybe I’m one of the 2% ???????
Seems the players over 50 on this list are the “scrap heap”, with Drew the king of the acrap.
The Jeff Samardzija portion gave me the humor I needed to start my day
Much like Jaime Garcia, Dickey’s option was already exercised
I for one would love to see David Freese offered a 2.5 year contract, how fun would that be?
It seems like we’ve underestimated the middle tier of starting pitchers even more than the top. Decent but unremarkable pitchers like Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija will probably be asking for at least the 4/82 contract that decent but unremarkable Rick Porcello has, right?
Ahhh, but you can’t use Ben Cherington’s idiocy as a standard for other GM’s. When it comes to bad contracts, Cherington is (was) the Brian Sabean of the Junior Circuit.
Dave Cameron mentioned in his chat that these lists tend to always come in a bit lower than the actual signing, mainly due to that fact that this reflects the median of a wide range of values while the actual player signs for the highest bid. It wouldn’t make sense to use the “Fans” highest bid, because those are probably very unrealistic outliers. But I bet there is a upper percentile, say 85th or something, that better approximates the actual signing value. To that end, I bet you could use the data from years past to “calibrate” the fan data so that you report the percentile that offers the highest correlation.
Or you could do none of this because it just an arbitrary exercise, I suppose.
Yeah, I try to consciously ratchet up my predictions to account for this. It’s silly to be surprised every year that so many guys got so much money.
oh I think this is a false narrative. there are plenty of players who struggle to get what the projections indicated.
and I also think that Cameron theory is flawed also. People are estimating what the high bids will be (what the player signs for assumes it’s the high bid). The question isn’t what do you think average offers for x player will be.
Impossible. This theory and his obsession with sequencing will both stand the test of time. They are not overly simplistic or based on a lack of familiarity with the underlying processes.
But how often do the fans properly account for inflation, player evaluation, strengths and weaknesses in the market, etc.?
I wonder if there are trends about what kinds of players the fans underestimate vs overestimate.
I think there are trends (but I don’t really have anything to back it up). I think the fans’ sometimes underestimate the superstar deals, but over-estimate what some of the low-tier free agents will get.
well, the good news is that we’ll have an answer to this in a few mos and can go back and look at prior years… sooooo….
You have to figure that there is more than one team who is interested in signing a player because they anticipate that their final price will fall within an acceptable range. Ultimately that price moves beyond the acceptable range of all but one of the teams interested.
With 30 teams I think you could take the median of contracts above the 93rd percentile. This would scale the fan votes to mirror an average of the top two teams bidding on a player.
Considering the Giants pretty blatantly reduced Byrd’s plate appearances to ensure the option wasn’t automatic, it’s odd that a full 41% think they will pick it up anyway.
That’s ridiculous. The Giants played Byrd regularly until they were eliminated (with only five games remaining), even though they were out of the race in early September (following a seven-game losing streak). While I like Byrd, it would have been much more beneficial for The Giants to play Jarrett Parker and other young outfielders to see how they’d do in the majors.
Ok, my phrasing might have been a little off. But if the option had (stupidly) been the opposite, that it vested if Byrd didn’t get 550 plate appearances, do you really think the Giants would have acted the same?
Also, they declined the option, for what that’s worth.
Here is the article I was basing my comment on: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/marlon-byrd-option-wont-vest-giants.html
I didn’t pay much attention to him this season, but I’m kind of surprised to see how poor Gerardo Parra’s defensive numbers are. I always thought of him as a defensive first player. Is there a reason they’re so bad or is it just the inaccuracy of defensive stats?
He had a sub par year and the stats are inaccurate. But he was better than the stats say.
It looks like he had some bad luck on the plays categorized as “unlikely”. He still makes the remote plays at a solid clip though so make of that what you will as to overall skill. I make out that he is still really really good.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/23/9019421/gerardo-parra-brewers-defense-mlb-trade-deadline
So as usual we’re low on a lot of these. But I think that the Heyward estimate is unrealistic and a reflection of the site this survey was taken on. There’s no way a corner outfielder whose most notable skill is his defense gets that contract. Not saying that he wouldn’t be worth it, just that he won’t get it. Someone is going to get a massive bargain on Heyward.
In the 2024 baseball season, the median team payroll will likely be somewhere on the order of $220M unless the next national television contract takes a massive step backward, and the FA market rate of WAR will be (perhaps significantly) north of $12M. Betting on 1.7 WAR from 33-year-old Jason Hayward in 2024 is probably one of the safer bets you could make in this year’s FA class.
Spot on. I think this is exactly the right analysis. And it only takes two smart (to me!) GMs to send the price up to that point. Personally, I think that is low and he gets +190 for 10 with an opt out. The opt out is based on his agents track record obv.
I just hope MOZ pays the freight.
I am betting even the Votto contract is unremarkable by the end.
I’m not so sure about that. Smart people are running the big money clubs now, and while the Yankees aren’t generally thought of as having a smart FO they have shown that they value defense (Ellsbury, Gardner, Headley, Ryan). Word is the Tigers owner is high on him as well.
The Yankees, Dodgers (Friedman), Cubs (Epstein), and Tigers could all be in on Heyward, which could make him expensive quick.
I will be absolutely thrilled if the Cardinals can get Heyward for $184/8.
If Jeff Samardzija gets 4 years, I’ll cut off my dick.
Twist, Rick Hahn is female.
These all seem too low to me… are there a bunch of GMs secretly logging on here to skew the numbers?
Well I guess there is the first big shock… 96% said the Giants would exercise Aoki’s 5.5 million extension, but they actually let him walk. Given the buyout, that means they pegged his value under 1 year/$4.8 million (!)
It means they didn’t want him on the team next year at that price. It is less a commentary on his value but rather a reflection of his value to their specific team. These decisions are made with context. Perhaps they need the payroll flexibility for another part of the roster and/or they have a replacement ready or some other plan to alter the composition of their roster.
Last year’s list was closer than 2013’s list, but still noticeably under. If they were right on years, they were under by 15%-25% on overall value. I’d expect a similar markup this year.
From last year’s list:
Scherzer Crowd 6.5/153
Scherzer Actual 7/210
Lester Crowd 6/128
Lester Actual 6/155
Hanley Crowd 5/87
Hanley Actual 4/88 (+22m vesting)
Shields Crowd 4.7/86
Shields Actual 4/75 (+16m club opt)
Sandoval Crowd 5/79
Sandoval Actual 5/95 (+17m club opt)
From 2013’s list:
Cano Crowd 8/196
Cano Actual 10/240
Ellsbury Crowd 6/112
Ellsbury Actual 7/153 (+21m club opt)
Choo Crowd 5/80
Choo Actual 7/130
McCann Crowd 4/59
McCann Actual 5/85
Garza Crowd 4/59
Garza Actual 4/50 (+13m vest)