FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli November 4, 2015 Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market. Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below. What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years. Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation. Players are ranked by total median projected contract value — and then, in such cases where players have received the same median contract estimate, by the total average contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2015. Offensive and defensive value are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here. #1 David Price (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 220.1 9.19 1.92 40.4 % 2.45 2.78 3.24 7.1 6.4 Median Years: 7 Median AAV: $28 million Total: $196 million Average Years: 6.9 Average AAV: $27.5 million Total: $190.8 million #2 Jason Heyward (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 25 610 9.2 % 14.8 % .293 .359 .439 .346 121 21.6 16.4 6.0 Median Years: 8 Median AAV: $23 million Total: $184 million Average Years: 7.7 Average AAV: $22.7 million Total: $174.7 million Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 98%. No: 2%. Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 98%. Yes: 2%. #3 Zack Greinke (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 222.2 8.08 1.62 48.0 % 1.66 2.76 3.22 10.0 5.9 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $26 million Total: $156 million Average Years: 5.8 Average AAV: $26.7 million Total: $155.3 million *Assumes he opts out of the three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, which he’s expected to do. #4 Yoenis Cespedes (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 676 4.9 % 20.9 % .291 .328 .542 .367 135 31.2 10.6 6.7 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $22 million Total: $132 million Average Years: 6.0 Average AAV: $21.5 million Total: $128.4million This guy really has the goods, doesn’t he? Agree: 45%. Strongly Agree: 29%. Stupid Question: 15%. Disagree: 10%. Strongly Disagree: 1%. #5 Johnny Cueto (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 212.0 7.47 1.95 42.5 % 3.44 3.53 3.78 4.3 4.1 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $22 million Total: $132 million Average Years: 5.5 Average AAV: $21.0 million Total: $115.6 million #6 Jordan Zimmermann (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 201.2 7.32 1.74 42.0 % 3.66 3.75 3.82 2.9 3.0 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $21 million Total: $126 million Average Years: 5.6 Average AAV: $20.8 million Total: $116.8 million Will the Nationals extend Zimmermann a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 99%. No: 1%. Will Zimmermann accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 99%. Yes: 1%. #7 Justin Upton (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 27 620 11.0 % 25.6 % .251 .336 .454 .340 120 18.8 -4.6 3.6 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $20 million Total: $120 million Average Years: 6.4 Average AAV: $20.4 million Total: $129.7 million Will the Padres extend Upton a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 100%. No: 0%. Will Upton accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 99%. Yes: 1%. #8 Chris Davis (1B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 670 12.5 % 31.0 % .262 .361 .562 .390 147 36.3 -5.5 5.6 Median Years: 5 Median AAV: $20 million Total: $100 million Average Years: 5.3 Average AAV: $20.5 million Total: $109.3 million Imagine to yourself 1,000 different universes. In how many of them do the Orioles extend a qualifying offer to Chris Davis? 100% of them: 46%. Somehow more than 100% of them: 45%. 99% of them: 9%. #9 Alex Gordon (3B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 422 11.6 % 21.8 % .271 .377 .432 .351 122 10.2 2.2 2.8 Median Years: 5 Median AAV: $18 million Total: $90 million Average Years: 4.9 Average AAV: $18.6 million Total: $92.2 million After Gordon declines his $12.5M player option, the Royals will extend Gordon a qualifying offer ($15.8M). Will he accept it? No: 100%. #10 Jeff Samardzija (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 30 214.0 6.86 2.06 39.0 % 4.96 4.23 4.31 1.0 2.7 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $16 million Total: $64 million Average Years: 4.3 Average AAV: $16.2 million Total: $69.7 million Will the White Sox extend Samardzija a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 92%. No: 8%. Will Samardzija accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 90%. Yes: 10%. What mnemonic device, if any, do you employ to spell correctly this player’s surname? Top Response #1: Google his name and let it auto-correct me. Top Response #2: Wait, mnemonic device starts with an “m”? Top Response #3: The black void swallows us all. #11 Ian Desmond (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 641 7.0 % 29.2 % .233 .290 .384 .294 83 -7.1 3.3 1.7 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $15 million Total: $60 million Average Years: 4.2 Average AAV: $14.4 million Total: $59.9 million Will the Nationals extend Desmond a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 81%. No: 19%. Will Desmond accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 84%. Yes: 16%. #12 Mike Leake (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 27 192.0 5.58 2.30 51.8 % 3.70 4.20 3.93 3.1 1.7 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $56 million Average Years: 4.4 Average AAV: $14.0 million Total: $61.4 million #13 Yovani Gallardo (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 184.1 5.91 3.32 49.3 % 3.42 4.00 4.31 4.3 2.5 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $56 million Average Years: 3.9 Average AAV: $14.0 million Total: $55.2 million Will the Rangers extend Gallardo a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 89%. No: 11%. Will Gallardo accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 91%. Yes: 9%. #14 Dexter Fowler (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 690 12.2 % 22.3 % .250 .346 .411 .333 110 8.1 0.6 3.2 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $56 million Average Years: 3.9 Average AAV: $13.8 million Total: $54.3 million Will the Cubs extend Fowler a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 76%. No: 24%. Will Fowler accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 84%. Yes: 16%. #15 Wei-Yin Chen (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 191.1 7.20 1.93 40.5 % 3.34 4.16 4.01 4.2 2.8 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $13 million Total: $52 million Average Years: 3.8 Average AAV: $13.1 million Total: $50.2 million Will the Orioles extend Chen a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 71%. No: 29%. Will Chen accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 83%. Yes: 17%. #16 Howie Kendrick (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 495 5.5 % 16.6 % .295 .336 .409 .325 109 7.1 -2.8 2.1 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $13 million Total: $52 million Average Years: 3.7 Average AAV: $13.2 million Total: $48.5 million Will the Dodgers extend Kendrick a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 73%. No: 27%. Will Kendrick accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 79%. Yes: 21%. Without looking, guess which figure is closest to Kendrick’s career BABIP over nearly 5,000 plate appearances. Median guess (selected from range of .260-.350 by 10-point increments): .320. #17 Matt Wieters (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 282 7.4 % 23.8 % .267 .319 .422 .321 100 -2.7 2.5 1.0 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $48 million Average Years: 3.7 Average AAV: $12.6 million Total: $47.1 million Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 64%. No: 36%. Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 69%. Yes: 31%. #18 Daniel Murphy (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 30 538 5.8 % 7.1 % .281 .322 .449 .325 110 5.9 1.0 2.5 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $48 million Average Years: 3.7 Average AAV: $12.6 million Total: $46.2 million Will the Mets extend Murphy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 61%. No: 39%. Will Murphy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 73%. Yes: 27%. #19 Scott Kazmir (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 183.0 7.62 2.90 42.9 % 3.10 3.98 4.14 3.6 2.4 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $42 million Average Years: 3.3 Average AAV: $14.6 million Total: $47.8 million #20 Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 34 535 11.6 % 10.5 % .276 .359 .450 .349 123 13.3 -11.5 2.1 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $42 million Average Years: 3.3 Average AAV: $14.1 million Total: $46.3 million #21 Hisashi Iwakuma (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 34 129.2 7.70 1.46 50.4 % 3.54 3.74 3.27 2.5 1.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $14 million Total: $42 million Average Years: 3.0 Average AAV: $14.5 million Total: $42.8 million Will the Mariners extend Iwakuma a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 83%. No: 17%. Will Iwakuma accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 83%. Yes: 17%. #22 Colby Rasmus (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 28 485 9.7 % 31.8 % .238 .314 .475 .339 115 13.4 -3.0 2.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $36 million Average Years: 3.4 Average AAV: $12.4 million Total: $42.5 million Will the Astros extend Rasmus a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 57%. Yes: 43%. Will Rasmus accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 75%. Yes: 25%. #23 Marco Estrada (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 181.0 6.51 2.73 32.2 % 3.13 4.40 4.93 4.5 1.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $36 million Average Years: 3.1 Average AAV: $12.0 million Total: $37.4 million Will the Blue Jays extend Estrada a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 58%. Yes: 42%. Will Estrada accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 53%. Yes: 47%. Were you to inform your past self from, like, a month ago that you were contemplating Marco Estrada’s potential receipt of a qualifying offer, would your past self believe you? No: 69%. Yes: 31%. #24 Ian Kennedy (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 30 168.1 9.30 2.78 38.5 % 4.28 4.51 3.70 -0.3 0.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $36 million Average Years: 3.0 Average AAV: $12.2 million Total: $37.1 million Will the Padres extend Kennedy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 57%. Yes: 43%. Will Kennedy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 62%. Yes: 38%. #25 Denard Span (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 275 9.1 % 9.5 % .301 .365 .431 .348 120 8.9 -4.0 1.4 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: $36 million Average Years: 3.0 Average AAV: $12.0 million Total: $35.4 million Will the Nationals extend Span a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 57%. Yes: 43%. Will Span accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 59%. Yes: 41%. #26 J.A. Happ (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 32 172.0 7.90 2.35 41.6 % 3.61 3.41 3.69 3.2 3.3 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $11 million Total: $33 million Average Years: 2.8 Average AAV: $11.0 million Total: $30.6 million #27 Brett Anderson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 27 180.1 5.79 2.30 66.3 % 3.69 3.94 3.51 1.9 1.7 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $11 million Total: $33 million Average Years: 2.7 Average AAV: $11.1 million Total: $30.1 million Will the Dodgers extend Anderson a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 54%. Yes: 46%. Will Anderson accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 52%. Yes: 48%. #28 John Lackey (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 36 218.0 7.22 2.19 46.0 % 2.77 3.57 3.77 5.9 3.6 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $15 million Total: $30 million Average Years: 2.4 Average AAV: $14.9 million Total: $35.0 million Will the Cardinals extend Lackey a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? Yes: 85%. No: 15%. Will Lackey accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 80%. Yes: 20%. #29 Austin Jackson (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 28 527 5.5 % 23.9 % .267 .311 .385 .305 94 -3.4 8.3 2.3 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $10 million Total: $30 million Average Years: 2.8 Average AAV: $9.9 million Total: $27.3 million #30 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 29 551 6.5 % 19.4 % .265 .315 .430 .319 104 3.3 -0.5 2.2 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $9 million Total: $27 million Average Years: 2.7 Average AAV: $9.6 million Total: $25.9 million #31 Gerardo Parra (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 28 589 4.8 % 15.6 % .291 .328 .452 .334 108 7.4 -22.1 0.4 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $24 million Average Years: 3.0 Average AAV: $9.1 million Total: $27.1 million #32 Mat Latos (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 27 116.1 7.74 2.48 43.9 % 4.95 3.72 3.69 -0.1 1.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $11 million Total: $22 million Average Years: 2.2 Average AAV: $10.3 million Total: $22.2 million #33 Darren O’Day (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 32 65.1 11.30 1.93 35.1 % 1.52 2.49 3.05 2.7 1.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $21 million Average Years: 2.8 Average AAV: $7.5 million Total: $20.8 million #34 Doug Fister (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 103.0 5.50 2.10 44.6 % 4.19 4.55 4.46 0.2 0.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $10 million Total: $20 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $10.5 million Total: $20.9 million Will the Nationals extend Fister a qualifying offer ($15.8M)? No: 90%. Yes: 10%. Will Fister accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? Yes: 74%. No: 26%. What percentage of Fister’s appearances in 2016 will come in a starting capacity? Median answer (selected from range of 0%-100% by 10% increments): 90%. #35 R.A. Dickey (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 40 214.1 5.29 2.56 41.9 % 3.91 4.48 4.72 3.6 2.0 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $10 million Total: $20 million Average Years: 1.6 Average AAV: $10.6 million Total: $17.0 million The Blue Jays hold a $12.0M option on Dickey’s contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it? Yes: 77%. No: 23%. #36 David Freese (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 470 6.6 % 22.8 % .257 .323 .420 .325 110 4.4 1.2 2.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $9 million Total: $18 million Average Years: 2.5 Average AAV: $9.5 million Total: $23.8 million #37 Mike Napoli (C/1B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 33 469 12.2 % 25.2 % .224 .324 .410 .321 98 -3.8 -5.4 0.7 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $9 million Total: $18 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $9.1 million Total: $16.2 million #38 Mike Pelfrey (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 164.2 4.70 2.46 51.0 % 4.26 4.00 4.45 1.5 2.0 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $16 million Average Years: 2.1 Average AAV: $8.1 million Total: $16.9 million #39 Alexei Ramirez (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 33 622 5.0 % 10.9 % .249 .285 .357 .279 72 -25.3 0.4 -0.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $16 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $8.2 million Total: $16.2 million The White Sox hold a $10.0M option on Ramirez’ contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it? Yes: 54%. No: 46%. #40 Juan Uribe (3B/SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 36 397 8.6 % 20.2 % .253 .320 .417 .319 104 2.7 2.6 1.9 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $16 million Average Years: 1.6 Average AAV: $7.8 million Total: $12.7 million #41 Joakim Soria (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 67.2 8.51 2.53 42.3 % 2.53 3.71 3.57 1.9 0.4 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $14 million Average Years: 2.3 Average AAV: $7.4 million Total: $16.9 million #42 Nori Aoki (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 33 392 7.7 % 6.4 % .287 .353 .380 .326 112 2.1 -0.5 1.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $14 million Average Years: 2.1 Average AAV: $7.6 million Total: $15.7 million The Giants hold a $5.5M option on Aoki’s contract ($0.7M buyout). Will they exercise it? Yes: 96%. No: 4%. #43 Alex Avila (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 28 219 18.3 % 30.1 % .191 .339 .287 .294 82 -5.8 1.8 0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 2.2 Average AAV: $7.3 million Total: $16.1 million #44 Chris Iannetta (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 317 12.9 % 26.2 % .188 .293 .335 .281 80 -11.0 5.4 0.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $7.2 million Total: $14.2 million #45 Steve Pearce (1B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 325 7.1 % 21.2 % .218 .289 .422 .308 91 -3.5 -3.9 0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $7.1 million Total: $13.8 million #46 Will Venable (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 390 9.5 % 24.1 % .244 .320 .350 .296 87 -1.4 0.4 1.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.9 Average AAV: $6.7 million Total: $13.0 million #47 Chris Young (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 356 8.4 % 20.5 % .252 .320 .453 .332 109 3.6 -4.3 1.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.9 Average AAV: $6.6 million Total: $12.3 million #48 John Jaso (C/DH) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 216 13.0 % 18.1 % .286 .380 .459 .364 136 4.4 -5.3 0.7 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $5.9 million Total: $10.9 million #49 Dioner Navarro (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 192 8.9 % 15.1 % .246 .307 .374 .296 84 -5.1 3.6 0.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $6.1 million Total: $10.9 million #50 Alejandro De Aza (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 31 365 8.5 % 23.0 % .262 .333 .422 .326 104 4.5 -4.9 1.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.7 Average AAV: $6.1 million Total: $10.2 million #51 Rajai Davis (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 34 370 5.9 % 20.5 % .258 .306 .440 .320 101 2.1 2.5 1.8 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $12 million Average Years: 1.6 Average AAV: $5.9 million Total: $9.4 million #52 Mark Buehrle (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 36 198.2 4.12 1.49 45.9 % 3.81 4.26 4.46 2.3 2.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $10 million Total: $10 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $10.8 million Total: $14.7 million This offseason, Mark Buehrle will either retire or not retire. Which one, though? Retire: 58%. Not Retire: 42%. #53 Bartolo Colon (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 42 194.2 6.29 1.11 42.3 % 4.16 3.84 3.94 1.2 2.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $10 million Total: $10 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $9.8 million Total: $13.1 million This offseason, Bartolo Colon will either retire or not retire. Which one, though? Not Retire: 83%. Retire: 17% #54 Tony Sipp (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 54.1 10.27 2.48 38.8 % 1.99 2.93 3.34 1.7 1.0 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $5 million Total: $10 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $4.9 million Total: $9.9 million #55 J.P. Howell (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 32 44.0 7.98 2.86 60.3 % 1.43 3.34 3.53 1.5 0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $5 million Total: $10 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $4.9 million Total: $8.8 million #56 Tommy Hunter (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 28 60.1 7.01 2.09 44.9 % 4.18 3.83 3.89 0.2 0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $5 million Total: $10 million Average Years: 1.9 Average AAV: $4.7 million Total: $8.8 million #57 Bud Norris (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 30 83.0 7.70 3.36 43.4 % 6.72 5.04 4.29 -1.7 0.0 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $9 million Average Years: 1.7 Average AAV: $6.4 million Total: $10.6 million Will Norris make the majority of his 2016 appearances in a starting or relief capacity? Starting: 60%. Relief: 40%. #58 Chase Utley (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 36 423 7.6 % 15.1 % .212 .286 .343 .274 71 -13.0 -0.3 0.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $8 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $7.5 million Total: $10.2 million The Dodgers appear to hold an $11.0M option ($2.0M buyout) on Utley’s 2016 season. Will they exercise it? No: 80%. Yes: 20%. #59 Antonio Bastardo (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 29 57.1 10.05 4.08 31.0 % 2.98 3.33 4.27 0.8 0.6 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $8 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $4.6 million Total: $9.4 million #60 Shawn Kelley (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 51.1 11.05 2.63 42.7 % 2.45 2.57 2.91 0.6 1.0 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $8 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $4.5 million Total: $9.0 million #61 Jimmy Rollins (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 36 563 7.8 % 15.3 % .224 .285 .358 .283 80 -15.2 -0.3 0.2 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $8 million Total: $8 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $7.4 million Total: $8.8 million Rather than playing at all, do you think Rollins will retire this offseason? No: 67%. Yes: 33%. #62 Mark Lowe (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 32 55.0 9.98 1.96 40.3 % 1.96 2.57 2.83 1.6 1.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $8 million Average Years: 1.7 Average AAV: $4.4 million Total: $7.3 million #63 Justin Morneau (1B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 34 182 7.1 % 13.7 % .310 .363 .458 .353 107 2.4 -3.7 0.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $7 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $7.3 million Total: $10.7 million #64 Alfredo Simon (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 34 187.0 5.63 3.27 43.6 % 5.05 4.77 4.78 0.4 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $7 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $6.9 million Total: $10.6 million #65 Marlon Byrd (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 37 544 5.3 % 26.7 % .247 .290 .453 .317 100 0.3 -7.8 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $7 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $7.2 million Total: $9.8 million The Giants hold a $8.0M option on Byrd’s contract. Will they exercise it? No: 59%. Yes: 41%. #66 Shane Victorino (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 34 204 7.8 % 15.7 % .230 .308 .292 .271 68 -5.6 -0.9 0.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: $7 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $6.7 million Total: $8.9 million #67 Rich Hill (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 35 29.0 11.17 1.55 48.4 % 1.55 2.27 2.50 1.6 1.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $6 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $6.5 million Total: $9.9 million Given the paucity of information regarding Hill but also the quality of his late-season run, his is the most compelling/least predictable free-agent case of the offseason. True: 53%. False: 47%. #68 Tim Lincecum (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 76.1 7.07 4.48 44.3 % 4.13 4.29 4.64 0.4 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $6 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $7.0 million Total: $9.9 million Will Lincecum, who’s returning from season-ending surgery on his hip labrum, re-sign with the San Francisco? Yes: 61%. No: 39%. #69 Chris Young (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 36 123.1 6.06 3.14 25.5 % 3.06 4.52 5.33 3.0 0.9 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $6 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $5.9 million Total: $7.9 million #70 Alex Rios (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 34 411 3.6 % 16.3 % .255 .287 .353 .279 72 -11.8 -0.2 0.2 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: $6 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $6.2 million Total: $7.7 million #71 Trevor Cahill (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 27 43.1 7.48 3.32 63.1 % 5.40 3.92 3.50 -0.3 0.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: $5 million Average Years: 1.6 Average AAV: $5.2 million Total: $8.4 million The Cubs hold a $13.0M option on Cahill’s contract ($0.3M buyout). Will they exercise it? No: 100%. Yes: 0%. #72 Ryan Madson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 34 63.1 8.24 1.99 55.0 % 2.13 3.09 3.32 1.9 0.9 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: $5 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $5.5 million Total: $8.1 million #73 Jonathan Broxton (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 31 60.1 9.40 3.28 52.8 % 4.62 3.65 3.24 -0.2 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $4.5 million Total: $6.6 million Broxton’s contract features a mutual option for $9.0M in 2016 ($2.0M buyout). Will Broxton exercise his half of the deal? Yes: 94%. No: 6%. Will the Cardinals exercise theirs? No: 97%. Yes: 3%. #74 David Murphy (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 33 391 5.1 % 12.5 % .283 .318 .421 .318 103 -0.1 -9.8 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $4.6 million Total: $6.4 million The Angels hold a $7.0M option on Murphy’s contract ($0.5M buyout). Will they exercise it? No: 85%. Yes: 15%. Murphy has averaged precisely 0.0 WAR over the last three seasons. Would you consider him the “quintessential replacement-level player”? Yes: 55%. No: 45%. #75 Geovany Soto (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 210 10.0 % 30.0 % .219 .301 .406 .311 94 -1.2 4.9 1.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $4.4 million Total: $6.3 million #76 Matt Joyce (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 30 284 10.6 % 23.6 % .174 .272 .291 .255 62 -14.5 -7.8 -1.4 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $4.2 million Total: $5.3 million #77 Brandon Morrow (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 30 33.0 6.27 1.91 47.4 % 2.73 3.56 3.72 0.9 0.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $4.2 million Total: $5.3 million Morrow failed to pitch even 55 innings for the third consecutive year. Will the majority of his 2016 appearances be recorded in a starting or relief capacity? Relief: 69%. Starting: 31%. #78 Jeremy Guthrie (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 36 148.1 5.10 2.67 34.4 % 5.95 5.62 5.11 -1.0 -0.9 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $4.3 million Total: $5.0 million Guthrie’s contract features a $10M mutual option (with $3.2M buyout) for 2016. Will he exercise his portion of that option? Yes: 95%. No: 5%. Will the Royals exercise their portion? No: 92%. Yes: 8%. #79 Stephen Drew (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 32 428 8.6 % 16.6 % .201 .271 .381 .284 76 -14.0 1.5 0.2 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $4.2 million Total: $5.0 million #80 Joe Blanton (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 34 76.0 9.36 1.89 48.6 % 2.84 2.92 3.01 1.2 1.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $3.7 million Total: $4.5 million #81 Kelly Johnson (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR 33 335 6.9 % 24.2 % .265 .314 .435 .323 107 1.9 -9.9 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $3 million Total: $3 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $3.3 million Total: $4.1 million #82 Kyle Kendrick (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR 30 142.1 5.06 2.85 38.8 % 6.32 6.12 5.09 -0.5 -1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $3 million Total: $3 million Average Years: 1.1 Average AAV: $3.3 million Total: $3.8 million If there had been an option above for “minor league deal,” would you have selected that instead? Yes: 61%. No: 39%. We hoped you liked reading FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage. Support FanGraphs