FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 14–27

After a week hiatus, the FanGraphs Power Rankings are back and there’s been a pretty big shakeup in the top tiers. And as we head into the final month of the season, there are plenty of exciting playoff races still up in the air.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After the recent collapse of the Rangers, the Braves now stand alone atop these rankings. They’re on cruise control right now, with the NL East locked up and a first round bye into the divisional round all but guaranteed. They’ve won 13 of their last 16 games, with six shutouts and just 2.9 runs allowed per game during this stretch. They’ve got a huge four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers this weekend that could go a long way towards determining the top seed in the NL.

No team in baseball is hotter right now than the Mariners. As recently as mid-July, they were 10 games behind Texas, but they’ve lost just five games in August and have surpassed both the Rangers and the Astros to take the division lead in the AL West. It’s the first time the M’s have led their division this late in the season since 2003. The offense that had been so frustratingly inconsistent earlier in the season has exploded this month; they’re scoring more than six runs per game and lead all of baseball with a 147 wRC+ in August.

A 4-2 record last week marked the low point of the Dodgers’ August; those two losses were just the third and fourth of the month for Los Angeles. They’re being led by two guys who are suddenly challenging Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP race: Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. The former is in the midst of the best full season of his career at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Betts, meanwhile, enjoyed an emotional return to Boston this weekend and extended his hitting streak to 15 games.

After starting the month with an eight-game win streak and 12 wins in their first 14 games in August, the Rangers have been in free fall since then. A win on Saturday snapped an eight-game losing streak, but they lost an ugly, 13-inning walk-off affair in Minnesota on Sunday. That dropped them to second place in the AL West, the first time they’ve been out of the top spot since April 8. Their bullpen in particular has been a sore spot during this stretch; Texas relievers have allowed 35 runs over their last 10 games, with six blown saves.

The Orioles were dealt a serious blow when their ace closer Félix Bautista was sidelined with elbow discomfort last week. Losing a pitcher of Bautista’s caliber would be a problem for any club, but for Baltimore, it’s a tremendous loss. So much of the O’s success this season has hinged on the success of their bullpen. Their shot at the playoffs probably isn’t threatened, but their grip on the AL East division lead is suddenly a little more tenuous.

With the Mariners budging in, the fight for the AL West crown is suddenly very crowded. The Astros have played second fiddle to the Rangers all season long, but now they have a third team to contend with. The ‘Stros offense has been frustratingly inconsistent this month; they’ve had just as many games where they score nine or more runs as they’ve had games where they score two or fewer. Kyle Tucker has been a rock in the middle of their lineup, and Jose Altuve has been fantastic since returning from his thumb injury, but Yordan Alvarez has been kept in check by various maladies, and both José Abreu and Jeremy Peña have been great disappointments this year.

The Brewers won their eighth straight game on Sunday and have now extended their lead in the NL Central to four games. They have a huge series against the Cubs on the docket this week, which could go a long way towards determining how close this division race is going to be down the stretch. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive lately, scoring more than seven runs per game after notching just three total runs during the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers that immediately preceded this win streak. That’s a very good sign, as run scoring has been such an issue for them during this recent competitive window.

Thanks to a floundering offense and an extremely thin pitching staff, the Giants have fallen out of Wild Card position, sitting even with Cincinnati at a game and a half back of the Diamondbacks. The depth of their roster has been strained to the breaking point by a cavalcade of injuries. They have key series against the Reds and Cubs coming up over the next two weeks, and they desperately need some positive results in those matchups to stay in the playoff picture.

Meanwhile, the roller coaster the Diamondbacks are riding is currently back on the upswing. They started the month with a nine-game losing streak, but they’ve gone 12-3 over their last 15 games to get right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They just won a huge four-game series against the Reds over the weekend, one that featured one of the most dynamic single plays you’ll ever see.

The teams in this tier are tangibly better than those in the tier below, but they’ve either fallen out of the playoff picture or are such long shots that they fit better as a potential spoiler than a true contender. The Padres exemplify this contrast; they’re underlying team quality is solid but they’re just too far back in the NL Wild Card race to truly make a run at it. Of course, being a good team that isn’t really good enough has plenty of rough implications for their future. The talent on their roster looked dominant on paper, but the actual results on the field have been disappointing to say the least. After getting swept by the Brewers over the weekend, you can probably put a pin in San Diego’s slim postseason hopes.

Speaking of teams at a crossroads, a 2-12 record over the last few weeks has sunk whatever last hopes the Yankees had of making a postseason run this year. If things keep going this way, they’ll finish in last place in the AL East for the first time since 1990; it would be their first losing season since 1992. To make matters worse, their future outlook seems pretty bleak unless they’re able to miraculously fill their aging roster with young talent. For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yanks are facing the decision to rebuild, or at least reset, their roster.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Angels, Shohei Ohtani injured his UCL last week and is done pitching for the season (and perhaps next season, too, depending on the severity of the tear). That same day, they placed Mike Trout back on the IL after he played in just a single game thanks to renewed discomfort in his left hand. Los Angeles was already well out of the playoff picture thanks to a ghastly 7-17 record in August, but depriving baseball of two of its greatest talents is a tragedy.

In the midst of another lost season, the Tigers finally have something to give them a shred of hope: the breakouts of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. After a really rough introduction to the big leagues, the former first overall pick is finally close to living up to the hype surrounding his draft selection and ascent through the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Carpenter’s emergence has largely flown under the radar, but he’s been Detroit’s best hitter since getting called up last August. The Tigers have plenty of work left to do before breaking out of this rebuild cycle, but those two hitters give them another pair of building blocks to work with.

Things finally came to a head for White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn last week. The architects of the team for nearly two decades, both were fired from their roles, as Chicago has squandered a bunch of young talent over the past few years. The White Sox will head into next year in search of a new direction, though with Jerry Reinsdorf still in place as the team’s owner, it remains to be seen how different of a course they can chart.

…