Stephen Strasburg, at the End

Throughout the 2019 postseason, the Washington Nationals made a habit of using their entire margin of error. They needed a three-run, last-ditch rally to get out of the Wild Card game, then another 11th-hour comeback to get past the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. Dave Martinez tried to shorten his pitching staff as much as possible, a desperation move that’s backfired on manager after manager as long as there have been playoffs.
By the time Game 6 of the World Series rolled around, the Nationals were facing elimination once again. They’d lost three straight to the 107-win Astros and needed to beat Justin Verlander on the road to stay alive. Patrick Corbin had been run ragged. Max Scherzer’s body had locked up to the point where he couldn’t dress himself. Martinez had already gambled with the likes of Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero more than anyone was comfortable with.
Then Stephen Strasburg stepped up and did something you don’t see pitchers do much anymore. He handled it.
After a rocky first inning, Strasburg kept the irrepressible Astros offense off the board into the ninth. The Nats once again scored bunches of runs late, and the next evening they were hoisting the proverbial piece of metal.
Strasburg’s last outing of 2019 marks the only time since 2015 that the day’s starting pitcher recorded an out in the ninth inning of a World Series. It’s the only instance since 2017 of a starting pitcher recording an out in the ninth inning of any playoff game. Strasburg was voted World Series MVP for his effort.
There’s a pretty good case to be made that Strasburg, a pitcher whose most famous playoff starts are arguably the ones he didn’t make, is the best postseason pitcher in major league history. Among pitchers with at least 50 playoff innings, Strasburg has the fifth-lowest ERA, behind Mariano Rivera, Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, and Eddie Plank, all Hall of Famers. No starter in the past 50 years can match him: not Curt Schilling or Madison Bumgarner. Not even Bob Gibson, pitching in the second dead ball era.
The night of Game 6, I wrote about Strasburg’s hero-making start as the capstone of a unique Nationals career, a poetic counterweight to the controversial innings limit that had kept him from participating in Washington’s first postseason run in 2012. Strasburg had the option to become a free agent after the 2019 season, and it was far from a certainty that the Nats — who’d just let Bryce Harper walk the previous winter — would give a 31-year-old pitcher the kind of money Strasburg had so clearly earned. I was confident that this would be Strasburg’s last appearance in a Nationals uniform.
I was wrong, but only technically. Strasburg duly opted out, but Washington brought him back after all, on a seven-year, $245 million contract that runs through 2026. But Strasburg made just eight starts over three seasons before injuries erased the second half of what ought to have been a Hall of Fame career. And not normal injuries, like a torn UCL or an uncooperative rotator cuff: neuritis, and ultimately thoracic outlet syndrome, the closest thing there is to an unrecoverable pitcher injury.
Strasburg still has three years and more than $100 million left on his contract, so he won’t officially retire just yet. But last Thursday the Washington Post reported that Strasburg would be giving up on a comeback attempt that’s looked all but hopeless for years. The official announcement will come sometime after Labor Day.
As far as I’m concerned, those last eight injury-riddled starts never happened, and our final memory of Strasburg as a player will be of him toting the Commissioner’s Trophy around the Minute Maid Park outfield in the wake of the Nationals’ Game 7 win. Hirsute and broad and immutable, like a forest. Larger than life.
What a career for Stephen Strasburg ?
?? 3× All-Star
?? 2019 World Series champion
?? World Series MVP
?? 2019 Babe Ruth Award
?? 2019 All-MLB First Team pic.twitter.com/vZ6Vj0JeXR— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 24, 2023
What a way to go out.
Whenever a player with Hall of Fame talent is forced to retire through injury, there’s a sense of communal grief. People who love baseball understand that there’s unfulfilled potential that’s been lost, and we mourn because we’re worse off for not seeing it fulfilled.
I don’t think that’s appropriate in Strasburg’s case, because even though he lost a full season early in his career to Tommy John surgery and was basically done at age 31, I don’t think there’s much more he could have accomplished. He played eight full seasons in the majors, and parts of 13. He was the most important player on a championship team and won an Olympic bronze medal. He never won a Cy Young — never even finished second — but he made three All-Star teams. When he was healthy, Strasburg was among the best pitchers in baseball. Oh, and by the time he collects his last check from the Nationals, he’ll have made the best part of $400 million. It’s not Roger Clemens without the PEDs, which was the hype when Strasburg was coming out of San Diego State, but it’s a hard career to complain about.
But while Strasburg’s retirement doesn’t leave behind the same whiff of disappointment as Matt Harvey or Mark Prior, it hurts to know his career is officially over.
Strasburg has always been one of my favorite players to write about — a former editor of mine once joked that Strasburg was my “muse” — and I doubt I’m alone. As much as I could go on about his physicality, his fastball, his scythe of a curveball, and how they affected the game empirically, the two things that made Strasburg into a legendary figure are completely ineffable.
The first was his ability to inspire wonder. If you can recall the hype around Strasburg as a college player, you don’t need to be reminded. But it’s a bit bracing to look back 15 years later and think about the mythical prospect status Strasburg carried in that now-primitive media environment.
In 2008, there was no multifaceted public-facing prospect coverage, little or no streaming media, and only a rudimentary network of blogs and social media to cover the minutiae of baseball. If you wanted to know about college baseball, you either had to subscribe to Baseball America, go and watch it in person, or wait until the College World Series was on cable.
Despite all that, Strasburg was a household name, a Tony Gwynn protégé with a triple-digit fastball and a breaking ball that was close to literally unhittable. As a college sophomore, he not only made an Olympic team full of upper-minors prospects, but was selected to start the tournament semifinal. In the years since, a more rabid and better-informed baseball-watching public has seen Carlos Rodón or Kumar Rocker or Paul Skenes mow down hapless undergraduates, and we’ve gasped in the collective realization that this is what it looks like, only more so.
That, ramped up to an intensity unseen in the pre-Shohei Ohtani era, was Strasburg. His major league debut was a national TV event, the most important thing that had happened to a D.C.-based baseball team in decades. Strasburg obliged the audience by punching out 14 Pirates. Plenty of rookies have built up national hype over time, but almost none were as highly anticipated as Strasburg. Follow baseball long enough and events will start to blur together, but I not only remember where I was for Strasburg’s debut, but where I was when I found out he’d torn his UCL three months later.
That air of specialness never really went away, even to the end of his prime. And even when Strasburg turned out to merely be one of the best pitchers in the sport and not the best pitcher in the sport, that sparkle didn’t fade. In fact, it almost made Strasburg more fascinating. Every time you went to the park or turned on the TV for his night on the mound, the possibility remained that you’d see something special. But it never got so routine, as it did with Clayton Kershaw, that we took it for granted. The precarity that came with Strasburg’s perceived fragility made him all the more precious.
Strasburg’s first great gift compounded with his second: History kept happening to him.
That’s different from a flair for the dramatic. Strasburg, great as he was in big games, was stonefaced on the mound and fairly laconic off it. No great celebrations or memorable quotes spring to mind. Just among his Nationals teammates, Scherzer, Harper, and Juan Soto have all shown themselves to be aware when the lights are brightest, and seem to amp themselves up for the occasion. They thrive under pressure. Other players wilt under it. Strasburg seemed unaware of it, pitching in the World Series with all the adrenaline and ceremony that comes with mowing your lawn.
It’s also distinct from popping up around big moments, like Strasburg’s former manager Dusty Baker. Baker was in the on-deck circle for Hank Aaron’s 715th home run. He was party to the invention of the high five. He was in the dugout for Barry Bonds and Steve Bartman. He bumps into historic occasions like Forrest Gump.
Strasburg seemed to pull history toward himself, like a planet attracting a wandering comet. In 2012, he found himself at the center of a watershed moment in the debate over pitching workloads, a controversy that’s conditioned the development of every young pitcher who’s come along since and is still probably the most important moment of Strasburg’s career.
Five years later, after taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, Strasburg fell ill the day of his next scheduled start, touching off one of the last great salvos of performative machismo in sports. When Strasburg came back, he shut the Cubs down for seven innings in damp, misty conditions at Wrigley Field, answering for good any questions about his toughness or will.
In less than six years since, the way we talk about athletes’ physical and mental health has changed so much as to render previous norms unrecognizable.
And then there’s Strasburg’s 2019 playoff run, which capped off that aforementioned legacy of playoff excellence.
With his metronomic consistency, Strasburg put a 106-win Dodgers team off the rails, then did the same to the Astros. Remember, that series was supposed to be the cherry on the top of a historic season by Houston’s front-of-the-rotation duo of Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But Strasburg held back the tide, leaving the cameras to fade out on an aggrieved and befuddled Astros team that, just a month later, would find itself embroiled in a generational scandal.
I’ll miss watching and writing about Strasburg because he was great, yes. Because he was exciting. But most of all because he was important. Baseball’s familiar abundance can make living with the sport a bit monotonous, as it’s difficult to find a reason to get up for a September game between third- and fourth-place teams with nothing on the line.
There was always something on the line with Strasburg. Every pitch he threw mattered. Sometimes because the fate of the World Series or the course of player development obviously hung in the balance. Sometimes, you couldn’t exactly name a reason. But you could always feel it.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
What a great tribute, Michael! Thanks for writing this, sad as it is. 🙁
darn it Michael, between this and the Corbin piece you are just about hitting out of the park more than Bonds on juice. Excellent writing.
“There was always something on the line with Strasburg. Every pitch he threw mattered. Sometimes because the fate of the World Series or the course of player development obviously hung in the balance. Sometimes, you couldn’t exactly name a reason. But you could always feel it.”
Just perfectly captured the feeling of watching him pitch. I’m not even a Nats fan, but every time I saw him pitch it was like the world was holding its breath. The contrast between him and Scherzer was insane.
It was like watching a guitar virtuoso hammering away so brilliantly that you hold your breath, half in awe at the performance, and half in expectation of one of the guitar’s strings breaking.
Wonderful stuff. That 2019 G6 outing might very well be the last time any starter records an out in the 9th inning of a WS game, barring a miracle. Fantastic career punctuated by a ring and WS MVP, and yet… you can’t help but wonder “what if?”
Good tribute to a fine pitcher.
I do take issue with this statement: “There’s a pretty good case to be made that Strasburg, a pitcher whose most famous playoff starts are arguably the ones he didn’t make, is the best postseason pitcher in major league history…No starter in the past 50 years can match him: not Curt Schilling or Madison Bumgarner. Not even Bob Gibson, pitching in the second dead ball era.”
That’s actually a ridiculous statement. Not all postseason games are the same. A wild card game is not the same as a World Series game. What a pitcher did in the World Series is the measure of greatness, not what they did in a division series game.
And, Bob Gibson didn’t get to pitch in a postseason game in the last 50 years.
I am a hardcore Dodger fan, and I have to admit that what Bumgarner did on the game’s biggest stage is the best I’ve seen: 4-0, 1 save, 0.25 in 36 innings.
Strasburg was 2-0, 2.51 in 14.2 innings in the World Series. That’s great, but nowhere near Bumgarner; or Randy Johnson 3-0, 1.04 in 17.1 innings; or Schilling 4-1, 2.06 in 48; or Clemens 3-0, 2.37 in 49.1 innings; or Jack Billingham 2-0, 0.36 in 25.1; or Mariano Rivera 2-1, 11 saves, 0.99 in 36.1; or Rollie Fingers 2-2, 6 saves, 1.35 in 33.1; or Ken Holtzman 4-1, 2.35 in 35.1; or Ron Guidry 3-1, 1.69 in 32.
Yea loved me some Strasburg, but what Bumgarner did in the World Series was just entirely unreal.
You did skip over a very important line in that quote. In context, the listing of Schilling, Bumgarner, and Gibson is a direct reference to their having higher postseason ERAs than Strasburg, which is an objective fact. He also didn’t actually include Gibson among the past 50 years, that line is in reference to Schilling and Bumgarner. Gibson is listed as another legendary postseason pitcher who had a higher playoff ERA than Strasburg.
If you want to draw issue with the line “There’s a pretty good case to be made that Strasburg, a pitcher whose most famous playoff starts are arguably the ones he didn’t make, is the best postseason pitcher in major league history”, on the grounds that the world series is more important, that is fair. But the specific pitchers listed were in reference to their respective postseason ERAs compared to Strasburg.
Sure. I can get on board with that.
How does the contract work in this situation? Does ha basically have a doctor say that he can’t pitch again and attempts to pitch again are dangerous? Otherwise, it seems as though absent an agreement from the Nats, he’d have to continue to “try” to pitch again in order to keep his salary.
I would hope the Nats would just do the right thing here and just release him and not try to fight this, as they must also realize there’s nothing left for Strasburg to give. But I haven’t heard anything about it from reputable sources. I remember Prince Fielder having to stay on the 40-man roster for years after he “retired,” but that was for insurance purposes that don’t apply here.
As a non-Nats fan living in DC, in my unbiased opinion Strasburg’s arrival was one of the biggest turning points for a sports franchise in history. It’s almost hard to remember how much of a joke the Nationals were, in part thanks to the fact that this was the franchise run into the ground in Montreal by Jeffrey Loria, and moved to DC in what could be charitably described as a less-than-smooth transition. The opening of the stadium was likely supposed to be a corner-turning event, but again the bad luck of opening a stadium in 2008 meant that all the would-be investment around the area was put on years-long holds. For DC people, the Strasburg debut was the turning point. Baseball for the first time in decades mattered in the city.
He won’t make the Hall, and he shouldn’t, but the Nationals should retire his #37 Jersey.
Yeah, that’s the kind of thing that jersey number retirements are supposed to capture — how important a player was to this franchise.
Oh, I haven’t the slightest doubt that they will retire number 37. I just hope I’m able to be there the day they do it.
But is it?
(Rich, that is)
(And if so, is it…Rich Hill? Rich Harden? Rich Aurilia? Rich Gossage? Rich Gedman?)
(Hill Harden Aurilia Gossage and Gedman represented me in my slip-and-fall down at the Try-N-Save. Got me a fat settlement.)
(As Ed Tom says at the end of No Country, “….my mind wanders.”)
Umm. . . yes, but no.
Unless Strasburg and the Nats have negotiated a settlement (and it does not sound like they have) it all counts the same going forward. The Nats will retain the rights to Strasburg through the 2026 season, and are responsible for the luxury tax hit all the same
Awfully well written essay.
Thank you for the wonderful piece, Michael. For me, Stephen Strasburg is the most important player in the Nationals’ short history. He changed the trajectory of the franchise when he first stepped on a major league mound, and then he ultimately brought them the World Championship with one of the greatest October pitching performances ever. His career was too short, but he accomplished way more than most.
Agree with Baumann that there isn’t really a “what if” with Strasburg like there is with some great players both because he accomplished so much and because it became clear early in his pro career that his health was always going to be an issue. You always held your breath watching him pitch. The fact that he was able to accomplish all that he did despite his physical limitations makes his career more impressive, not less. Hopefully now he can focus on regaining a measure health without the demands of trying to pitch. But Stras got paid, the Nats got to become a real team and then got a World Series championship in the bargain. Not bad at all.
Love the article. Love Strasberg. Check out Herb Score sometime. Straz ALMOST broke his rookie debut strikeout record. Came up one short of tying Herb. Two short of breaking it. Proud to be a relation. Sad to see both potential HOF pitchers denied a long career due to injury.
Score was a truly unique pitcher, one of the most unique of all time and most particularly for his time. In that rookie year he lead the league in K/9 by over two full Ks per game (9.70 K/9, absurd for the era). He also walked 6.10 per 9. His next year, the glory year before he got hit by McDougald’s line drive, he won the K/9 crown by ~1.5 Ks.
He kept striking people out for a while even after he got back, but then he got hurt again (after changing his motion to protect his face, as the story goes) and it all fell apart.
Would have been fascinating to see what Score’s career would have been without the injury. He was a Nolan Ryan type pitcher, but even more of an outlier compared to his era.
Wow, really great piece
Great story. Didn’t realize how dominant he’d been in the playoffs
Strasburg at San Diego State was a massive story in the baseball world. At the time, the idea that a starter could sit in the high 90s and touch 100 was a major, major deal. Add in the narrative of his being a chubby, undrafted high school senior who transformed himself into this fire breather and it was gold.
The article mentioned Baseball America as a source for college news back in the day, but I’d also like to give a shout out to an old favorite, Minor League Ball from John Sickels (the ghost of which is still online today). He didn’t cover college sports as much, but in a time when there was virtually no information available about what was going on in the minors (I remember going to Baseball Cube for intermittently updated stats), it was the gold standard.
I’d like to see HOF induct memorable players like Strasburg, Hershiser and Valenzuela regardless of career statistics. History of baseball isn’t complete without including them.
There’s plenty of the HoF that memorializes memorable parts of baseball outside of the strict list of inductees. They do that kind of thing all the time.
This is true, but I to me it would mean more to be a HOF player if Strasburg, Saberhagen, Santana and Hershiser were in rather than Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter and Tony Oliva. I’m not sure what the HOF is trying to be in its choice of inductees.
Oh they’re trying to induct the “best” players, make no mistake. Between Harold Baines, Lee Smith, Ray Schalk, Lloyd Waner, and the like, they just have a funny way of doing it sometimes.
There are exhibits in the museum that cover important moments and figures in the history of the game regardless of their inclusion in the plaque room. I recall stuff about Valenzuela and Nomo’s status as cultural trailblazers.
People focus too much on the inductees as the sole way of being remembered. The museum is a great way to recognize the influence of individuals whose career may not reach the level of the others who have been inducted.
It’s true that there are other parts of the museum. But the inductees shouldn’t be less interesting than those.
It comes down to what you want out of the HOF. It sounds like you are looking for something more like the Baseball Reliquary/Shrine of the Eternals.
Players like Mark Fidrych or Bill Lee are significantly more interesting than someone like Bert Blyleven, but I would rather see Fidrych and Lee highlighted in the museum and Blyleven inducted than the other way around.
Heck, there are even pictures of McGwire and Canseco (or least, *were*) in the HOF… they do a great job telling the story of baseball…
Great article! that 2019 Game 6 start was one of the most clutch performances any D.C. athlete has ever accomplished. Stands beside Walter Johnson’s 3 IP of shutout ball in Game 7 of the 1924 World Series.
I think the 2012 shutdown has been – for the most part – vindicated, although it appears teams try to increase rest in season to nurse a starter coming back from TJ surgery vice shut them down cold.
But when I look at how the Braves handled Kris Medlen and the Mets rode Matt Harvey in 2015 and their careers afterwards compared to Strasburg’s it seems to evidence tilts in Mike Rizzo’s favor.
Also, imagine how horrible the pre-COVID off-season would have been had the Astros prevailed in the World Series. The Nats did baseball a favor by winning it and doing so in a way unprecedented in modern sports.
One small gripe though: as a Nats fan, I must point out that the Nats in 2019 lifted the World Series trophy marking them as baseball’s World Champions, not the “proverbial hardware.” Fans of other fine franchises who have won titles – in Baltimore, Queens and Philadelphia and especially Atlanta somehow can’t bring themselves to type or say those words or acknowledge that the Washington Nationals really, truly won it all, but, hey, it happened. Recognizing it graciously and directly, won’t harm anybody.
“proverbial piece of metal” is a reference to Rob Manfred
That joke wen my right over your head
Went over mine too… I also thought the line was weird.
Ben Sheets had a similar career arc. Always sad when those career-ending injuries occur in the midst of a player’s prime.
Strasburg being injury prone was a story that took hold early and then wouldn’t go away. In reality, from 2012 to 2019 he averaged 168 innings a year. Not exactly a workhorse, but he wasn’t sitting on the shelf half the time as the accepted narrative would have you believe.
Really nice article a couple of things to add to flesh it out a bit, not to criticize. To me the most effective pitch in his arsenal wasn’t the fastball or the curve, but the changeup. Stras’s changeup was a joy to watch and a nightmare to try to hit. It presented as a fastball but was 10mph slower (a 90mph changeup when that was rare!) and had a tremendous amount of armside run. A beautiful pitch.
In hindsight, there’s a much better argument that the 2012 shutdown enabled the Nats’ 2019 WS title than the argument that it cost them in 2012. The guy who replaced Strasburg in the 2012 NLDS was Ross Detwiler, and he pitched the game of his life in Game 4 to set the stage for the “Werthquake” walk-off HR. Stras could have matched that, but it’s hard to see how he could have done better; no matter how he did it would still have been Gio Gonzalez starting Game 5. Further, Strasburg’s appreciation for the organization kept him in DC. As a Boras client everyone expected Strasburg to test the FA waters in 2016. Instead that Spring he directed Boras to get the best deal that he could get from the Nationals. When he signed his extension he specifically cited the care the Nats had taken with his health, including the shutdown, for why he wanted to stay. And that extension worked out GREAT for the Nationals. In the three seasons covered by the extension (2017-19) Stras had two top 5 CYA finishes culminating in the WS MVP. It’s the second extension, after Stras opted out, that weighs on the team.
The “what would have happened in game 5?” question isn’t quite that simple, and brings up a resemblance to the idea of looking at leverage index for relievers. The Nationals’ rotation for most of that season was:
After Strasburg was shut down for the year, it shifted to:
If they decided Strasburg could still pitch safely without an innings limit, he would have been the one getting the ball in game 1, and therefore also 5 if necessary.
Another favorite Strasburg statistic: Strasburg did really have a “times through the order” penalty. His OPS against for his career, by # of plate appearances for the batter:
1st: .632
2nd: .633
3rd: .632
4th: .788 (but that was in only 87 plate appearances for his career, so SSS; the others involved over 1500, 2100, and 2200 PA)
Sigh. I meant “didn’t” have a times through the order penalty. Stupid fingers.
Nah, he did have a penalty, it was just the fourth time through.
You’re going to make that statement based on just 87 plate appearances? Remember that just because something is the only data that we have does not make that data meaningful.
That contract lol. Of all the guys to sign to a long-term deal…
Nice. Ironically, many will remember him more for the decision to shut him down than his magnificent playoff run ending in a championship.