FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 28–September 3

We’ve finally made it to the last month of the regular season, and there are still a handful of exciting, drama-filled postseason races to hold our attention until the playoffs begin in earnest.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

In a potential NLCS preview, the Braves and the Dodgers played four drama-filled games last weekend, with Atlanta prevailing in three of them. That series win all but guarantees the Braves will head into the postseason with the top seed in the National League and likely the best record in baseball should they advance all the way to the World Series. That might be putting the cart before the horse, but that’s the trajectory they’ve been on all season long, and anything less would likely be seen as a disappointment.

Instead of withering under the considerable amount of attrition they’ve suffered this year, the Rays have continued to put pressure on the Orioles in the race for the AL East crown. They’ve gone 17–9 since losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery in early August and 12–6 since Wander Franco was placed on administrative leave. They did suffer a bit of a stumble against the Guardians last weekend, though, losing their first series since August 8–10, then came up short against the Red Sox on Labor Day.

The Rangers began a huge series against the Astros on Monday with an ugly 13–6 loss. They did pick up a series win against the Mets early last week but just barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Twins on Sunday with a walk-off win. Their only saving grace during this poor stretch of play has been the concurrent struggles of the Mariners and Astros. Seattle lost its series against the Mets last weekend, which was barely better than the sweep Houston suffered against the Yankees. These three teams are still separated by a single game atop the AL West.

The Phillies have solidified their place at the top of the NL Wild Card race with an excellent August where they went 17–10. The driver of the train? Bryce Harper, who has finally regained his power stroke after offseason elbow surgery and blasted eight home runs in a two-week span to close out last month. Not to be outdone, Trea Turner is in the midst of a 15-game hit streak, compiling 24 hits and 10 home runs during his torrid stretch. Since receiving a standing ovation on August 4, he has hit .364/.398/.764 (206 wRC+).

The Cubs had a big week with back-to-back series against the Brewers and Reds, the two teams directly ahead of and behind them in the NL Central standings. They wound up going 4–3 with a series win against Milwaukee and a series split against Cincinnati that included two heartbreaking walk-off losses. Justin Steele continues to bolster his stealthy Cy Young candidacy, and Kyle Hendricks has regained his pre-pandemic funk, while Cody Bellinger continues to power the offense.

Entering Monday, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Giants were all tied for the final position in the NL Wild Card race. Miami was idle, and Arizona and Cincinnati won their games yesterday. Unfortunately, San Francisco dropped its fourth straight to fall behind the pace by a game. The Giants are still reeling from all the injuries that have tested their depth, though they did activate Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford off the IL. Even with all those reinforcements, their offense is ice cold; they’ve scored just four total runs during this losing streak and have been shut out in back-to-back games.

With the AL East well out of reach and the Wild Card a distant pipe dream, the Yankees called up a couple of their prospects last weekend to get them some valuable experience in the big leagues this month. Jasson Domínguez, their top ranked prospect, homered in his first major league at-bat against Justin Verlander and added a second dinger on Sunday as the Yankees swept the Astros. The wins are too little, too late, but the standout performances from the youngsters give New York a ray of hope during a lost season.

The Reds and Guardians were the big winners in the wacky waiver wire sweepstakes last week. It was a little surprising to see the Guardians claim three pitchers; they’re so far behind the Twins in the AL Central that their playoff odds are in the single digits. To their credit, they made the claims after winning a three-game set against Minnesota, then went out and won their weekend series against the Rays for good measure. Of course, in Lucas Giolito’s debut with Cleveland on Monday, he allowed nine runs — to the Twins no less! — in an ugly 20–6 defeat to start another critical series against the division leader.

Just a month after trading for a handful of guys in the hopes that they could salvage another disappointing season and make the postseason with both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on their roster, the Angels wound up waiving five of those six trade deadline acquisitions in an attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold to improve their draft position when Ohtani inevitably leaves in free agency this offseason. It was a bizarre move with a cynical end goal, made all the more hilarious because apparently they wound up just a hair over the threshold anyway. At least Nolan Schanuel looks pretty interesting, as far as a first base prospect can be.

If you’re looking for a team to channel its inner Wario and create the most chaos for teams in the playoff hunt, look no further than the Mets. Twenty-three of their remaining 25 games are against teams looking to secure a playoff spot, with their two-game series against the Nationals this week the only exception. They played their role as spoiler well last weekend, winning two of three against the Mariners.

On the flip side, the Tigers have just nine games with playoff implications remaining on their schedule, and three of those are against the Guardians during the last week of the season. Detroit’s youngsters will still get valuable development time as they play out the string, but most of the team’s games will matter more for draft position than the playoff aspirations of their opponents.

The Rockies also have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, with 22 of their remaining 25 games against teams with playoff hopes. They lost series to the Braves and Blue Jays last week and started a series with the Diamondbacks with another loss on Monday. Where the Mets actually have the talent to actually play spoiler, the Rockies seem to be a minor nuisance for those playoff-bound teams.

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