FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 27–July 3

We’ve hit the halfway mark of the season, and two teams are really pulling away in the American League. The Wild Card races are filled with intrigue, however, and there are plenty of divisions still up for grabs in the National League.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday, July 3.

Tier 1 – The 100 Club
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Yankees 58-22 -1 116 78 75 6 188 100.0%
Astros 51-27 0 116 87 77 17 189 100.0%

Both the Yankees and Astros have left the rest of the field in the American League far behind, leading their respective divisions by double-digit games and all but clinching playoff spots with three whole months to go. Of these two, Houston has been playing a bit better than New York recently, extending its winning streak to seven games yesterday afternoon on a Yordan Alvarez walk-off blast. The fact that he was in the lineup at all was a bit of good fortune after his ugly collision with Jeremy Peña last week. They ended up missing just a handful of games, with both helping the Astros demolish the Angels in a three-game sweep over the weekend.

Outside of their struggles against the Astros over the last two weeks, the Yankees have taken care of business against the A’s and Guardians as they continue to pad their lead in the AL East. And while it won’t tip the scales all that much if they falter, they’ll play the Red Sox seven times heading into the All-Star break. A strong showing against their biggest rival would give them even more breathing room as they head into the second half of the season.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Dodgers 49-29 -6 114 78 82 -2 163 98.3%
Braves 46-34 0 107 90 83 0 149 93.3%
Mets 49-30 3 109 98 94 1 134 97.1%
Red Sox 44-35 -2 106 92 98 6 138 73.7%
Padres 47-34 0 98 88 92 22 131 87.5%

The Dodgers and Padres met up over the weekend, with the latter just a game and a half behind Los Angeles in the NL West. That was as close as they got to first, though, as they barely avoided a four-game sweep with a late-inning, come-from-behind win on Sunday afternoon. Along with their loss yesterday, the Padres have now won just three of their past 11 games and are facing another big four-game divisional series this weekend against the Giants.

As for the Dodgers, they just got Mookie Betts back from his fractured rib over the weekend, though they still have some issues to work out. Another meltdown by Craig Kimbrel on Sunday raises questions about the strength of the back end of their bullpen, especially with Daniel Hudson lost for the season and Blake Treinen still sidelined with a shoulder issue. They’ve got plenty of young relievers who have stepped up this year, but they’re probably in the market for a bunch of pitching upgrades heading into the trade deadline.

The Mets are about to welcome back their top two starters back from the IL. Max Scherzer is expected to be activated for today’s game against the Reds, and Jacob deGrom just made his first rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie. They’ve impressively weathered the absence of those two aces while also navigating injuries to Chris Bassitt and Tylor Megill. Once their rotation is a bit more healthy, they’ll have the enviable problem of having too much quality starting pitching and can turn their attention towards fixing their offensive woes; yesterday, they scored more than five runs in a single game for the first time since June 20.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Cardinals 44-37 -4 108 101 95 4 133 50.7%
Brewers 46-35 1 103 95 88 -7 115 85.4%
Blue Jays 44-36 1 114 96 107 2 129 92.9%
Twins 45-37 -1 111 94 102 -3 127 53.5%

After starting off the month of June with just three wins in 14 games, the Brewers have won 12 of their last 17 games and retaken the lead in the NL Central. Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby both recently returned from the IL, but it’s been the offense that’s been driving a lot of their recent success. Andrew McCutchen leads the team with a 175 wRC+ during this stretch, with Christian Yelich (146), Rowdy Tellez (141), Luis Urías (138), and Willy Adames (121) all contributing in big ways, too. It all came together in a 19-run outburst against the Pirates on Friday.

The Blue Jays won the first two games of their big five-game series against the Rays over the weekend but dropped the last three, then lost to the A’s on Monday night to bring their losing streak to four. More worrying was the comebacker that struck Kevin Gausman on the right ankle in his start on Saturday, forcing him to leave the game; it’s unclear if he’ll be able to make his next start. Toronto’s place in the AL Wild Card race suddenly looks a lot more unstable with the Rays closing the gap to just half a game and the Guardians and Mariners lurking close behind.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Rays 43-36 1 101 90 110 6 111 60.8%
Phillies 42-38 -3 103 89 94 -18 109 35.4%
Giants 40-37 -2 105 90 102 -23 106 44.9%
Mariners 39-42 -2 106 104 100 3 112 12.8%
Marlins 37-40 -3 102 100 102 2 102 7.1%
Guardians 40-36 2 97 107 101 9 92 36.2%
Rangers 37-40 -3 99 105 95 -8 86 5.1%
Angels 37-44 -2 99 95 109 9 106 10.5%
White Sox 38-39 3 98 104 106 -11 72 54.2%

The Giants are mired in a deep slump right now. They’ve lost 11 of their last 14 games and were decisively swept at home by the White Sox over the weekend. They can’t hit or field, and their bullpen is a mess. About the only thing that’s going right for them is their starting rotation, but even there they just lost Anthony DeSclafani to a season-ending ankle injury. They’ll limp into the All-Star break with five more games against the Diamondbacks and a pair of four-game series against the Padres and Brewers. They’re just two games back in the NL Wild Card race, but that position could slip quickly if they don’t turn things around.

The Mariners just wrapped up an 18-game stretch against sub-.500 teams, going 11–7 and pushing their way back into the AL Wild Card conversation. They also made the first big move of the season, acquiring Carlos Santana from the Royals last week. They’re still feeling the effects of the brawl with the Angels a week ago; J.P. Crawford served his suspension over the weekend, and Jesse Winker will be sidelined for six games this week. The good news is that Ty France and Kyle Lewis should be returning from the IL soon, and Mitch Haniger could be back after the All-Star break. The man carrying the team right now is no surprise: Julio Rodríguez, who won his second consecutive Rookie of the Month award in June and who has blasted seven home runs over the last two weeks.

The Guardians have absolutely terrorized the Twins’ bullpen recently. Those two division rivals played each other eight times over the last two weeks, with Cleveland walking away with five wins. All five of those games were decided in the eighth inning or later; two of them were extra-innings victories, and two were walk-off wins. That’s about all that’s gone well for the Guardians recently, as they were swept by the Red Sox two weekends ago and lost two of three to the Yankees last weekend. Those wins against the Twins have helped them stay within striking distance of the AL Central lead, and they’re still solidly in the mix for the AL Wild Card.

The Angels’ freefall continues as they were swept by the Astros over the weekend. Mike Trout didn’t collect a single hit in the series and struck out nine times in three games. At least they still have Shohei Ohtani setting personal records left and right, even if those individual performances aren’t translating to wins in the standings.

The Marlins have quietly made their way into the fringe of the NL Wild Card race after sweeping the Nationals in four games over the weekend. They’re just four games back and have a big four-game series against the Mets looming this weekend. Unfortunately, both Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler were placed on the IL last week, severely hampering their lineup.

Tier 5 – No Man’s Land
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Orioles 36-44 -1 92 111 87 -1 75 0.1%
Diamondbacks 35-44 1 88 106 108 11 73 0.1%
Cubs 32-47 -1 103 116 103 -13 68 0.2%
Rockies 35-44 2 91 104 101 -12 56 0.0%
Tigers 30-47 5 77 120 82 5 69 0.1%

Some of the youngsters on the Cubs have shown some progress recently. Keegan Thompson made some significant changes to his pitch mix, leading to a fantastic four-game stretch where he struck out 27 in 22.1 innings. Justin Steele has also been excellent lately; he held the red-hot Brewers to a single run yesterday, striking out nine. Chicago also welcomed back Seiya Suzuki, who promptly hit a go-ahead inside-the-park home run in his first game back from the IL.

Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Royals 29-48 1 93 122 114 4 50 0.1%
Pirates 32-47 5 86 116 109 -13 23 0.0%
Athletics 26-55 0 76 115 112 4 39 0.0%
Nationals 29-52 1 95 127 109 -24 28 0.0%
Reds 27-51 -2 87 113 121 -11 26 0.0%

The Athletics could be facing a worst-case scenario. No, not their win-loss record, though they are on pace to lose 100 games for the first time since 1979. On Sunday, Frankie Montas was forced to leave his start after just a single inning with what was diagnosed as shoulder inflammation; the severity isn’t known yet, though his velocity was down by two miles per hour. In a lost season at the start of a rebuilding cycle, losing your best trade chip right before the deadline definitely qualifies as a worst-case scenario.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ
1 Yankees 58-22 -1 116 78 75 6 188 100.0% 0
2 Astros 51-27 0 116 87 77 17 189 100.0% 1
3 Dodgers 49-29 -6 114 78 82 -2 163 98.3% -1
4 Braves 46-34 0 107 90 83 0 149 93.3% 3
5 Mets 49-30 3 109 98 94 1 134 97.1% 0
6 Red Sox 44-35 -2 106 92 98 6 138 73.7% 0
7 Padres 47-34 0 98 88 92 22 131 87.5% -3
8 Cardinals 44-37 -4 108 101 95 4 133 50.7% 2
9 Brewers 46-35 1 103 95 88 -7 115 85.4% 3
10 Blue Jays 44-36 1 114 96 107 2 129 92.9% -1
11 Twins 45-37 -1 111 94 102 -3 127 53.5% -3
12 Rays 43-36 1 101 90 110 6 111 60.8% 4
13 Phillies 42-38 -3 103 89 94 -18 109 35.4% 1
14 Giants 40-37 -2 105 90 102 -23 106 44.9% 1
15 Mariners 39-42 -2 106 104 100 3 112 12.8% 2
16 Marlins 37-40 -3 102 100 102 2 102 7.1% 2
17 Guardians 40-36 2 97 107 101 9 92 36.2% -4
18 Rangers 37-40 -3 99 105 95 -8 86 5.1% 1
19 Angels 37-44 -2 99 95 109 9 106 10.5% -8
20 Orioles 36-44 -1 92 111 87 -1 75 0.1% 1
21 White Sox 38-39 3 98 104 106 -11 72 54.2% 1
22 Diamondbacks 35-44 1 88 106 108 11 73 0.1% -2
23 Cubs 32-47 -1 103 116 103 -13 68 0.2% 0
24 Rockies 35-44 2 91 104 101 -12 56 0.0% 0
25 Tigers 30-47 5 77 120 82 5 69 0.1% 0
26 Royals 29-48 1 93 122 114 4 50 0.1% 0
27 Pirates 32-47 5 86 116 109 -13 23 0.0% 0
28 Athletics 26-55 0 76 115 112 4 39 0.0% 0
29 Nationals 29-52 1 95 127 109 -24 28 0.0% 1
30 Reds 27-51 -2 87 113 121 -11 26 0.0% -1





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

22 Comments
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PC1970
1 month ago

How does San Francisco have a worse OAA than Philadelphia? Oof.

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  PC1970

Some of it is that they don’t have anyone who is plus, anywhere, except for Bart and Dubon (neither of whom are hitting). And some of it is that what the Joc giveth, the Joc taketh away.

Francoeursteinmember
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Dubon is an Astro now

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

That makes it even better. Or worse, depending on how you look at it.

Jimmember
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Hey, Sad, Dubon got traded to Houston.

PC1970
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Also, it looks like Crawford may have finally hit the wall. He is bad in all the fielding metrics (UZR, OAA, DRS, etc)