FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 6–12

Win streaks and losing streaks across baseball have resulted in some major movement in the power rankings this week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Yankees 44-16 -1 121 74 75 -1 178 99.9%
Astros 37-23 1 112 93 79 17 174 98.6%
Dodgers 37-23 -5 114 81 87 -2 158 94.9%
Mets 40-22 2 116 97 96 1 151 94.2%

I considered putting the Yankees in their own tier at the top of these rankings this week; that’s how well they’ve been playing recently. They absolutely crushed the Cubs during a three-game weekend series, launching 11 home runs and outscoring Chicago, 28–5. Matt Carpenter has collected eight hits since joining the Yanks in late May, and six of them have been home runs, including two on Sunday. Oh, and their pitching staff has been one of the best in the majors, too. They’re firing on all cylinders at just the right time; their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks, with a pair of series against the Rays, a series in Toronto, and a four-game set against the Astros.

After handling the White Sox earlier in the week, the Dodgers traveled to San Francisco over the weekend and scored just four runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of their division rival. To make matters worse, Walker Buehler left his start on Friday after just four innings with elbow discomfort. The next day, the Dodgers announced that he’ll be shut down for two months with a flexor strain. Clayton Kershaw returned from his own Injured List stint over the weekend, and Andrew Heaney is on the mend and should be activated sometime this week. Still, with the Padres and Giants breathing down their necks in the NL West, the Dodgers’ margin for error just got a lot thinner without Buehler in the rotation for a while.

The Mets wrapped up a long West Coast road trip with a series win against the Angels over the weekend. That gave them a 5–5 record during the trip, a perfectly acceptable outcome based on the tough opponents and travel they faced. Since Max Scherzer went down with his oblique injury in mid-May, New York has gone 15–8 and maintained a strong grip on the NL East. The Braves’ recent hot streak may cause some concern, but the Mets have proven they’re a good enough team even without their two best pitchers.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Blue Jays 35-24 1 111 85 99 -1 145 97.6%
Padres 37-24 1 94 81 93 18 130 91.8%

The Blue Jays have largely taken care of business during one of their most important stretches of play this season. They won both of their series against the Royals and Tigers last week and will head into a four-game set against the cellar-dwelling Orioles to start this week before a huge three-game set against the Yankees this weekend. The AL East standings won’t be flipped this week, but Toronto could gain some ground on New York, which leads the division by 8.5 games.

The Padres moved to within half a game of the faltering Dodgers over the weekend, splitting a four-game series against the Rockies. Their pitching staff has continued to carry most of the weight while they wait for Fernando Tatis Jr. to return. Manny Machado can’t continue to power their entire offense, and they’re getting far too little production from his supporting cast. It might be a little odd to call out their run scoring issues after they scored 25 runs against the Mets last week, but they ended the weekend by scoring just two runs in each of their last three games against Colorado. They certainly have the talent to put up a ton of runs quickly, and Tatis will only help in that regard, but they’re just so inconsistent right now.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Braves 34-27 0 105 96 78 -1 125 83.7%
Twins 35-27 1 114 96 104 -5 124 64.1%
Red Sox 32-29 -3 103 93 97 3 124 54.4%
Rays 35-25 2 99 93 101 7 116 70.1%

No team has been hotter than the Braves. Winners of 11 straight, they’ve shaken off their early-season funk and have launched themselves up the standings. Ronald Acuña Jr. finally looks like himself on the field and at the plate; he’s collected 15 hits and four home runs during this stretch. They might have also found a solution to their outfield woes with Michael Harris II now manning center field. He’s held his own at the plate despite having no experience above Double-A and provided excellent defense up the middle. With the Nationals and Cubs on the docket for this week, Atlanta has an opportunity to carry this momentum into a huge seven-game stretch against the Giants and Dodgers next week.

After starting out around 60%, Boston’s playoff odds dipped to a season-low 19.3% on May 15. Since then, the Red Sox have gone 19–8, haven’t lost a series, and have pushed their odds back up to 54.3% after a long West Coast road trip that saw them go 8–2. It wasn’t all good news out west; Enrique Hernández, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Whitlock were all placed on the IL over the weekend, severely thinning out their starting rotation. Tanner Houck has brought some stability to their shaky bullpen, converting the team’s last two saves, but he might need to be stretched out again as the Red Sox weather this flurry of injuries.

Speaking of injuries, no team in the American League is struggling with them as much as the Rays. The latest blow was Andrew Kittredge’s elbow injury that will require Tommy John surgery. They currently have 13 players on the IL, and their players have missed 648 total games to injury so far this year. They did just get Shane Baz back from elbow troubles, bolstering a strong starting rotation. Like the Blue Jays, these next few weeks could determine how close the AL East division race will be this summer; Tampa Bay plays the Yankees six times over the next two weeks, with series against the Orioles and Pirates providing opportunities to make up even more ground.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Cardinals 34-27 -2 105 99 102 2 110 52.5%
Angels 29-33 -3 108 93 113 5 130 27.2%
Giants 33-26 0 108 90 103 -16 110 64.6%
Guardians 29-27 -3 101 106 89 10 120 24.8%
Marlins 27-31 -5 105 98 103 4 121 8.7%
Phillies 30-30 -3 106 87 99 -18 118 35.2%
Brewers 34-28 2 97 94 94 -13 92 73.1%

The Angels finally won a game after Shohei Ohtani nearly single-handedly defeated the Red Sox on Thursday night, pitching seven innings of one-run ball and hitting a two-run home run to help power the offense. That win came too late to save Joe Maddon’s job, as he became the second manager to lose his job this season. That ugly 14-game losing streak is in the rear-view mirror now, and the team is getting a bit healthier, too. Mike Trout returned from a minor groin injury over the weekend and blasted two home runs on Saturday, hopefully a sign that his mini-slump is a thing of the past. Anthony Rendon was activated off the IL on Friday, and Taylor Ward should return some time this week too.

After firing Joe Girardi a couple of weeks ago, the Phillies rattled off nine victories in a row before falling to the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon. That hot streak pushed their record back to .500 and puts them solidly in the mix for the final NL Wild Card slot. Bryce Harper has been the man driving Philly’s offense, collecting 14 hits and five home runs during the win streak. His injured elbow has continued to keep him off the field, but it clearly hasn’t affected his ability to mash the baseball. It’s hasn’t been just Harper either; Kyle Schwarber (five homers), Bryson Stott (four), and Rhys Hoskins (three) all had big hits, and the starting pitching has done its part, too.

An eight-game losing streak pushed the Brewers behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. To make matters worse, Brandon Woodruff, who originally hit the IL with a sprained ankle, is now dealing with numbness in his throwing hand and will be sidelined for longer than expected. The pitching is certainly a problem — Milwaukee gave up 43 runs last week — but the team’s offense has gone cold at exactly the wrong moment, with three shutout losses during that eight-game skid. A big four-game series against the Cards is looming in two weeks, but the Brewers will first try to get back on track against the Mets and Reds.

Tier 5 – Hanging by a Thread
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Rangers 28-31 -2 97 102 100 -7 77 4.2%
Mariners 27-33 -1 110 112 111 3 106 10.8%
Diamondbacks 29-33 2 90 106 107 12 71 0.6%
White Sox 27-31 4 92 105 110 -14 54 47.3%

Nothing is going right in Chicago. The White Sox haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Yankees back on May 21–22 and lost back-to-back games in extra innings to the Rangers over the weekend. The biggest story out of the Southside this week was Tony La Russa’s baffling decision to intentionally walk Trea Turner in a 1–2 count — one that backfired spectacularly. La Russa might not be on the hot seat yet, but if the White Sox don’t find a way to turn their season around, he will be soon. And to add injury to insult, Michael Kopech left his start on Sunday with knee pain after recording just two outs, though thankfully, an initial MRI didn’t show any structural damage.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Cubs 23-36 -2 101 120 101 -2 76 0.3%
Orioles 25-35 0 94 123 90 -6 69 0.0%
Tigers 24-35 5 71 111 80 0 66 0.9%
Rockies 27-34 3 87 105 102 -19 44 0.1%

The Tigers received a bit of bad news this week, learning that Casey Mize will undergo Tommy John surgery and likely be sidelined until 2024. It’s the latest blow to a Detroit ballclub that had designs on breaking out of its rebuild as soon as this season but has instead slid backwards significantly. Nearly the entire Opening Day starting rotation has been sidelined by injuries — Tarik Skubal is the last man standing — and the offense has been non-existent so far.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Royals 20-38 0 93 128 118 8 56 0.1%
Nationals 23-39 1 98 131 105 -20 45 0.0%
Pirates 24-34 5 85 114 106 -5 38 0.1%
Reds 21-39 -3 90 115 112 -8 30 0.1%
Athletics 21-41 0 80 110 113 0 43 0.0%

There isn’t much joy to be had in Washington with the Nationals bringing up the rear in the NL East. There was one reason to celebrate this week, however: Stephen Strasburg made his season debut after missing the majority of the last two years with a variety of injuries. Even in a diminished form, his presence in the rotation makes the Nats a bit more watchable every five days.

The A’s snapped a 10-game losing streak on Saturday but have won just four of their last 20 games and eight of their last 30 to push them below the Reds in these rankings. The only real question left for them to answer this season is when the remaining veterans on the roster will be traded.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ
1 Yankees 44-16 -1 121 74 75 -1 178 99.9% 0
2 Astros 37-23 1 112 93 79 17 174 98.6% 0
3 Dodgers 37-23 -5 114 81 87 -2 158 94.9% 1
4 Mets 40-22 2 116 97 96 1 151 94.2% -1
5 Blue Jays 35-24 1 111 85 99 -1 145 97.6% 1
6 Padres 37-24 1 94 81 93 18 130 91.8% 1
7 Braves 34-27 0 105 96 78 -1 125 83.7% 9
8 Twins 35-27 1 114 96 104 -5 124 64.1% -3
9 Red Sox 32-29 -3 103 93 97 3 124 54.4% 1
10 Rays 35-25 2 99 93 101 7 116 70.1% 3
11 Cardinals 34-27 -2 105 99 102 2 110 52.5% -2
12 Angels 29-33 -3 108 93 113 5 130 27.2% 0
13 Giants 33-26 0 108 90 103 -16 110 64.6% 1
14 Guardians 29-27 -3 101 106 89 10 120 24.8% -6
15 Marlins 27-31 -5 105 98 103 4 121 8.7% 0
16 Phillies 30-30 -3 106 87 99 -18 118 35.2% 2
17 Brewers 34-28 2 97 94 94 -13 92 73.1% -6
18 Rangers 28-31 -2 97 102 100 -7 77 4.2% 1
19 Mariners 27-33 -1 110 112 111 3 106 10.8% -2
20 Diamondbacks 29-33 2 90 106 107 12 71 0.6% 0
21 Cubs 23-36 -2 101 120 101 -2 76 0.3% 0
22 Orioles 25-35 0 94 123 90 -6 69 0.0% 2
23 White Sox 27-31 4 92 105 110 -14 54 47.3% -1
24 Tigers 24-35 5 71 111 80 0 66 0.9% -1
25 Rockies 27-34 3 87 105 102 -19 44 0.1% 0
26 Royals 20-38 0 93 128 118 8 56 0.1% 3
27 Nationals 23-39 1 98 131 105 -20 45 0.0% 1
28 Pirates 24-34 5 85 114 106 -5 38 0.1% -2
29 Reds 21-39 -3 90 115 112 -8 30 0.1% 1
30 Athletics 21-41 0 80 110 113 0 43 0.0% -3





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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Reynold
2 months ago

The Astros must be invisible – nothing worth mentioning?

steveo
2 months ago
Reply to  Reynold

The AL West isn’t a real division, unfortunately.

dukewinslowmember
2 months ago
Reply to  steveo

hey they talked about the Braves!

Runaway Toastermember
2 months ago
Reply to  Reynold

None of the tiers had a paragraph about every team. I admit I haven’t been looking out in previous weeks if Houston is consistently passed over, but if it is a one-week blip, don’t take it personally I guess?

Reynold
2 months ago

Top tier, though?

sadtrombonemember
2 months ago
Reply to  Reynold

Carlos Correa has been on a tear after a slow start. Since April 28th he’s been running a wRC+ of 203. That’s got to be something Astros fans can be happy about. Hey? Why are you leaving?

tdouglas
2 months ago
Reply to  Reynold

Many teams get left out of the articles. The Cardinals finally got a mention last week, for example. You have to wait your turn!

Reynold
2 months ago
Reply to  tdouglas

Unless you are the Yankees are Dodgers.

steveo
2 months ago
Reply to  Reynold

Actually, the Yankees have gotten left out a few times. I’m a Yankees fan, so I look for their blurb. Not sure on the Dodgers.