FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 22–28

We’re a third of the way through the regular season, and June is right around the corner. The teams in the American League have sorted themselves into haves and have-nots, but the National League looks wide open for any team to make a run this summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

The Rays just wrapped up a long homestand where they went 7–3 against the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Their schedule in May has been particularly tough, with every single series (except for their current one against the Cubs) coming against teams with winning records. Naturally, when facing its weakest opponent since April, Tampa Bay was shut out in a 1–0 loss on Monday. Also, don’t look now, but the Rangers have overtaken the Rays for the best run differential in baseball.

The Braves welcomed back Michael Soroka on Monday, as he made his first major league start since August 2020. He wasn’t particularly sharp, allowing four runs in six innings against the A’s, but his resilience to get back to the big leagues after so many injuries is inspiring. The hope is that he’ll be able to stabilize an Atlanta rotation still suffering from the absences of Max Fried and Kyle Wright. On offense, Austin Riley’s bat has finally started to heat up; he’s in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak that includes nine extra-base hits.

The Mariners started a ten-game homestand last week with a sweep of the A’s and a series victory against the Pirates before falling to the Yankees on Monday. After a poor start in April, they’ve pushed their record over .500 behind a phenomenal pitching staff. More importantly, it seems like Julio Rodríguez has started to heat up with the weather; he’s collected a hit in every game during this homestand, with six straight multi-hit games, three home runs, and seven extra-base hits. His early slump really hurt the M’s, so getting him back on track is a huge positive sign for Seattle.

The Astros began a stretch of 17 straight games without an off day last weekend by sweeping away the A’s in Oakland, but they lost the opening game of their series against the Twins in ugly fashion. The highlight of the game for Houston was a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh inning off the bat of Jose Altuve, who has provided a spark for Houston’s lineup since returning a few weeks ago. This long stretch of uninterrupted games will put a strain on the starting rotation, which is still without Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. Their offense will need to pick up the slack.

The Diamondbacks continue to impress, winning their 15th game in the month of May. When you look at their roster, it’s a little hard to see how they’re hanging with some of the better teams in the NL. But while there are plenty of holes on their roster, they’re getting great performances from enough of their key players. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are a formidable one–two punch atop their rotation, Corbin Carroll has settled into a starring role in the heart of their lineup, and they’re getting contributions from a few unlikely sources. That’s enough to post the third-best record in the NL thus far.

After handling the Blue Jays and Yankees on the road, the Orioles returned home last weekend and lost a three-game series to the Rangers and their opening game against the Guardians on Monday. To make matters worse, Cedric Mullins injured his groin and will likely be sidelined for a while. That puts a bit more pressure on the rest of a lineup that’s seen its fair share of ups and downs. Like the Rays, the O’s have banked so many wins already that they’ll stay in the AL playoff picture even if they suffer a downturn.

Maybe the Twins’ come-from-behind victory on Monday will provide a spark; they had won just four of their previous 12 games heading into their series with the Astros. They have the best starting rotation in baseball, but their offense and bullpen have been a little too inconsistent. Carlos Correa’s return to Minnesota hasn’t gone as well as hoped and been complicated by a foot injury that he’s playing through. Minnesota did receive reinforcements in the form of Royce Lewis, who was activated off the IL on Monday and hit a three-run home run exactly a year after tearing his ACL.

The Giants have won 11 of their last 14 games, pushing their record to two games over .500 and putting themselves into a tie for a Wild Card spot with the Marlins. They scored 15 runs on Friday against the Brewers and another 14 against the Pirates on Monday. Michael Conforto has hit .378/.423/.667 during this stretch, collecting 17 hits, four home runs, and 13 RBIs. It’s taken a while, but he looks healthy and up to speed after a shoulder injury cost him all of last year.

Two steps forward, one step back for the Cardinals, who lost four of seven last week against the Reds and Guardians and were shut out on just two hits against the Royals on Monday. An offense that had led their resurgence earlier in the month has all of a sudden gone quiet; after hanging eight runs on the Reds on Tuesday, they didn’t score more than three for the rest of the week. Meanwhile, the Cubs have hit their low point of the season, Marcus Stroman’s shutout of the Rays on Monday notwithstanding. That victory snapped a four-game losing streak and was just their fourth win in their last 15 games. They’ve fallen to just a half-game ahead of St. Louis in the division and have the third-worst record in the NL. Both teams have positive run differentials, but it feels like they’re moving in opposite directions right now.

Trea Turner’s debut season in Philadelphia has not gone according to plan. His strikeout rate is through the roof, and his contact quality has deteriorated significantly. Those struggles have been deep enough to spoil Bryce Harper’s early return from the IL; the Phillies have gone just 10–13 since their superstar rejoined the lineup. They managed to split a four-game series in Atlanta over the weekend and begin a big three-game set against the Mets on Tuesday.

Last year, the Marlins sat in the vicinity of .500 for the first three months of play with a run differential well below zero. They seem to be following the same blueprint this year, though they’re sitting over .500 now after sweeping the Angels over the weekend. Their offense has been inconsistent at best, with Jorge Soler’s power explosion — he hit home runs in five consecutive games last week and has 12 in the month of May — offset by the struggles of Jean Segura and the bottom half of the lineup. Their top pitching prospect, Eury Pérez, has been good through his first four starts in the majors, giving them another young, dynamic arm for their starting rotation.

It’s sad to see how far the Guardians have fallen after their surprising 92-win season last year. They’ve graduated two of their top pitching prospects in Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, but the continued success of their pitching pipeline has been overshadowed by the complete ineptitude of their offense. Cleveland has scored more than five runs in a game just twice in the month of May and is averaging exactly three runs per game this month and just 3.45 on the season. José Ramírez is the team’s only above-average hitter, and he can only carry the load so far.

While the owners of the Athletics take more and more concrete steps toward relocation, on the field, we’re left wondering if Oakland is the worst team in modern baseball history. And yet the A’s were able to win their 11th game of the season against the best team in the NL on Monday. Baseball! It’s become sort of a novelty to see just how bad they’ll be this year, though I’m sure it’s no fun for the fans who are being dragged through the mud by indifferent, incompetent, and infuriating ownership.

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