FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 11–17

The Wild Card races in both leagues continue to be filled with drama as none of the teams vying for those playoff spots have created any daylight in the standings.

A quick aside before we get into the rankings themselves: there has been some discussion about the efficacy and value of these rankings, particularly the team quality metric I’m calculating. I won’t argue that it’s a perfect encapsulation of any given team’s relative strength or the right way to rank teams on a weekly basis, but I did want to share some historical data from last season. In 2022, team quality had a 97% correlation to a team’s final win percentage. In addition, team quality at the All-Star break had a 95% correlation to a team’s final record. The relationship hasn’t been as strong this season with team quality at the All-Star break having a 82% correlation to a team’s current record. It’s possible teams like the Orioles and Padres who are historically over- or under-performing their underlying stats are skewing the relationship and that’s a possible area of research this offseason. Anyway, I’m comfortable with the established relationship between team quality and actual wins to continue using it as a way to compare team strengths.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

With the NL East and a first-round bye into the playoffs locked up, the Braves are simply hoping to get to October with a healthy roster that hasn’t lost its edge. That’s why it’s important to not get too worked up about any extreme swings in results over these last few weeks of the season. Case in point: Atlanta took three of four from the Phillies in a potential NLDS preview early last week before allowing 36 runs across three games in a sweep by the Marlins over the weekend.

The Rays had an opportunity to take over the AL East lead after taking the first two games of their big weekend series against the Orioles. The two best teams in the AL ended up splitting that four game-series and head into this week locked into the same position, with Tampa Bay sitting two games behind Baltimore. One of the biggest reasons why the Rays have been able to keep pace in the division is a much improved bullpen locking down games behind a suddenly stable starting rotation.

It was a rollercoaster week for the three teams battling for the final two AL Wild Card berths. The Rangers trounced the Blue Jays in Toronto in a four-game sweep before getting swept by the Guardians over the weekend; the Mariners won two of three from the Angels but fell out of playoff position after getting swept by the Dodgers; and Toronto bounced back with a weekend sweep of their own against the Red Sox.

The Rangers and Mariners seem destined to duke it out for an AL Wild Card spot; they’ll play each other seven times over the last two weeks of the season. To make matters even more dramatic, those two teams are still just 1.5 and 2.5 games behind the Astros for the AL West division lead, too. Texas will have to overcome the loss of Max Scherzer, who was placed on the IL with a strained teres major muscle. Meanwhile, Julio Rodríguez is continuing to set records in Seattle as he attempts to drag the M’s out of their September funk.

The Blue Jays currently hold the second Wild Card spot. They’re being led not by any of their young superstars, but by Davis Schneider of all players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did show some signs of life last week, blasting home runs in three consecutive games; he now has a 146 wRC+ in September, his best performance in a single month since April. It’s a flawed metric of success, but Toronto is 38–43 against teams with records over .500. And with six games each left against the Yankees and the Rays, the path to the postseason won’t be easy.

The Brewers have gone 7–3 over their last 10 games and, thanks to that and the Cubs’ recent slide, have built a commanding 6.5-game lead in the NL Central. Their pitching staff has been completely dominant down the stretch; they haven’t allowed more than five runs in a single game this month and are third in overall run prevention. Brandon Woodruff hasn’t missed a beat since returning from his shoulder injury, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has rounded into form after entering the season without a solidified bridge to Devin Williams in the ninth inning.

The Cubs have had a rough go of it over their last 10 games, losing to the Diamondbacks six times during that stretch and dropping a series in Colorado to boot. All of a sudden, they’re tied with the Marlins for the final Wild Card spot and are only a half-game ahead of the Reds. Despite a late-season resurgence from Seiya Suzuki, their offense has dried up during this stretch; they’ve scored just 3.3 runs per game over their last 10. They’ve got two easier matchups this week in the Pirates and Rockies before ending the season with series against the Braves and Brewers.

The Diamondbacks, Marlins, Reds, and Giants certainly won’t make it easy for the Cubs. Arizona’s offense has been solid, if a bit inconsistent, but it really seems like the team will go as far as Zac Gallen and the pitching staff are able to carry it. Gallen, though, followed up his three-hit shutout of the Cubs with a seven-run clunker against the Mets last week. The D-Backs hold the half-game advantage over the rest of the field but have series against the Giants, Yankees, and Astros still on the docket.

The Marlins demolished the Braves over the weekend, scoring 36 runs off the NL East champion in a three-game sweep. That’s certainly given them a boost after losing Sandy Alcantara to a season-ending forearm injury. Thankfully, they activated Jorge Soler off the IL on Sunday after a brief stint on the shelf, and Luis Arraez has shown some signs of breaking out of his second-half swoon; he blasted four home runs last week, including two on Friday.

The quiet dance between the Mets and David Stearns was finally formalized last week as they hired him to run their organization as president of baseball operations. It’s a big first step toward rebuilding the team into a perennial contender in a way that simply throwing Steve Cohen’s money at free agents wouldn’t necessarily be able to solve. Before Stearns is able to take over and start implementing his system, the Mets will wrap up this season with 13 games with meaningful playoff picture implications — not for them, but they can spoil things for the Marlins and Phillies if they choose.

The Mets weren’t the only team to make a significant change atop their organization last week. The Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom on Thursday, marking an end to his disappointing run as the head of their baseball ops. On August 24, they were eight games over .500 and 3.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race; they’ve gone 6–16 since then and have fallen behind the Yankees into last place in the AL East.

Lost amid all the drama surrounding the playoff chase, the Rockies completed a bit of housekeeping work, signing Germán Márquez to a two-year extension. Márquez is sidelined until mid-2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year, but it’s a low-risk move with some upside — a foreign concept in Colorado. On the field, they played their role as spoiler well last week, winning five games at home against the Cubs and Giants. They’ve got another crack at Chicago on the road this week before ending the season at home with seven games against the Dodgers and Twins.

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