FanGraphs Power Rankings: Spring Training Edition

The beginning of spring training is just a week away, and the majority of the big moves this offseason have already happened. There are a few free agents left looking for a new home, but for the most part, teams have set their spring rosters and are looking forward to sifting through their guys as they work toward Opening Day. Now that the ZiPS projections have been plugged into the site and the hot stove is set to a preseason simmer, I thought it would be a good time to revisit these power rankings to check in on how teams did over the offseason. You could think of the Delta column as a rough grade, since it reflects the change in ranking from the last time these ran in mid-November.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

The Braves entered the offseason as the top team in these rankings, and all they did was bring in a long-term upgrade at catcher and add to their already great bullpen with a handful of smaller trades. They appear to be the best team in the majors by a decent margin heading into spring training and are projected to win a major league-best 93 games — and that’s their 50th-percentile projection, mind you. If there’s one lingering question on their roster, it’s whether or not Vaughn Grissom can follow his impressive big league debut in a full season as the starting shortstop. The options behind him on the depth chart are not very appealing, but the strength of the roster means Atlanta should be able to weather a slump.

The Yankees made the one move they absolutely had to make this winter: re-signing Aaron Judge. On top of that, they added Carlos Rodón to an already strong starting rotation. With Judge anchoring the lineup again and a run prevention unit that should be among the best in the game, they’re slightly ahead of their division rivals in the conversation for the best team in the American League. If there’s one thing to worry about, it’s the lack of depth at a few key positions around the diamond. The Yankees are banking on excellent health for a lot of their aging veterans without much of a safety net behind them.

If nothing else, the Mets’ offseason was endlessly entertaining. Beyond the Carlos Correa will-they-won’t-they drama, they were one of the most active clubs in free agency, spending nearly half a billion dollars on new acquisitions and re-signing key players. They had a huge exodus of talent off their roster after last season but did well to replace a large portion of those players. When these rankings last ran in November, they ranked 13th; they’ve now pushed themselves up to third. Even without Correa on the roster, they project to be one of the stronger clubs in the majors and should give the Braves a run for their money in the NL East again.

While the Padres did the majority of their offseason shopping in August last year with the Juan Soto trade, that didn’t stop them from signing Xander Bogaerts to a huge contract to be their shortstop of the future. That move pushes Fernando Tatis Jr. off his natural position (once he returns in late April), but that’s a small problem to tackle when you’re adding a player of Bogaerts’ quality to your roster. Beyond that big splash, San Diego spent the rest of the offseason patching over some of the smaller holes on the roster. All the work that the Padres have done to upgrade their roster over the last year and half has put them in position to dethrone the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West; San Diego is projected to win 92 games, five more than Los Angeles.

For the Blue Jays, this offseason could have been all about tinkering with an already strong roster. Instead, they made a bold trade with the Diamondbacks, bringing in Daulton Varsho to help patrol their outfield alongside George Springer and fellow newcomer Kevin Kiermaier. That gives them one of the best defensive outfields in the game and helps balance out their right-handed heavy lineup. They also signed Chris Bassitt to lengthen their starting rotation, giving their pitching staff a bit more depth. All in all, it’s an incredibly balanced roster that should be among the best in the league again.

The Rays didn’t need to make many upgrades to a strong roster, instead completing a number of small trades to alleviate some roster crunch and restock their development pipeline and signing Zach Eflin to the largest free-agent contract in franchise history. They’ll compete with the Yankees and Blue Jays in a three-way battle for the AL East crown, with all three teams projected to finish within four wins of each other.

Years of splashing cash on their roster finally caught up with the Dodgers this offseason, as they limited their spending to smaller one-year deals with a few key veterans. That effort to curtail their luxury tax burden ended up for naught, though, as Trevor Bauer’s reduced suspension added his salary back to the books for 2023. Financial maneuvering aside, Los Angeles still has a strong roster built to compete, but the ceiling of this collection of players is a little lower than it’s been in the past.

The Astros have weathered losing superstars to free agency a number of times over the last few decades and simply continued to win despite the potential setbacks. The latest version of that will play out in 2023 after Justin Verlander left town to join the Mets. Houston has a ready-made replacement in Hunter Brown waiting in the wings. He’s still unproven at the major league level, but showed plenty of promise in his brief debut last year. The rest of the teams in the AL West are quickly closing the gap between them and Houston, but for now, the Astros should continue to be the class of that division.

The model of consistency in baseball, the Cardinals have posted a single season below .500 in the last two decades and have collected nine division titles, 13 postseason appearances, and two championships during that stretch of success. Unfortunately, they’ve been bounced out of the playoffs during the first round the last three seasons in a row. With the majority of their roster carrying over from last year, the one big addition they made was to sign Willson Contreras to replace Yadier Molina. That’s a pretty significant upgrade to their lineup, though it still might not be enough to get them past the other juggernauts in the NL.

The Mariners finally broke their infamous postseason drought in 2022 and rode that wave of momentum into a fairly quiet offseason. They traded for Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong to cover over the holes left by a couple of departing free agents, brought in a couple of veterans to provide a bit of depth, and are largely banking on a repeat of their success last year with some continued growth from their young core. It’s not a bad plan, but it lacks the kind of follow-up excitement you might expect from a team who reached the playoffs for the first time in two decades.

The Guardians didn’t have much work to do this offseason with a young roster that made a surprising appearance in the playoffs last season. They bolstered their lineup with the addition of Josh Bell and replaced Austin Hedges’ defensive prowess with an equally capable backstop in Mike Zunino, who comes with the added bonus of lots of dingers. It’s probably a stronger roster on paper than the one that won the division last year, though they’re projected to battle it out with the reloaded Twins.

That Minnesota is projected to be even with Cleveland feels like a happy bit of happenstance. The Twins were the surprise winners of the Correa sweepstakes, which altered the trajectory of their offseason considerably; if they hadn’t re-signed their starting shortstop, it’s unlikely they would have traded Luis Arraez for Pablo López. Alongside some of their smaller additions, those two big names have seriously raised the ceiling for this club, now poised to challenge the Guardians for the AL Central crown.

The Phillies addressed all big questions on their roster this offseason, bringing in Trea Turner to man shortstop for years to come and patching up their pitching staff with a bunch of smaller moves. They’ll still have to figure out how to survive in the competitive NL East without Bryce Harper for at least half the season. The projections still like their chances, though they’ll likely have to fight off a number of clubs in the Wild Card race and can’t afford to slip too far down the standings before Harper returns in the second half.

No team’s roster feels as volatile as Boston’s. If everything works out right, the Red Sox could give the Rays and Blue Jays a serious fight behind the Yankees. Maybe all their health question marks turn out to be fine, Masataka Yoshida makes a seamless transition stateside, their veterans fight off decline for another year, and their youngsters take a major step forward. But there are so many ways that things could fall apart, and too many of those scenarios would have disastrous cascading effects across their roster. Threading the needle should be compelling to watch for outsiders and completely heartrending for fans in Boston.

I’ll give credit where credit is due: the Angels really tried to patch up all the holes on their roster this offseason. Adding Brandon Drury, Carlos Estévez, Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela, and Tyler Anderson should raise the floor around Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Facing the departure of the latter after the season, barring a surprise contract extension, it felt like they needed to do more to maximize their opportunity with him on their roster. As it stands, they’re entering spring training with more of the same questions about whether or not it was enough to finally get them into the playoffs.

Right on the heels of the Angels are the Rangers, who have spent oodles of money to try to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney to their starting rotation is certainly an improvement on last year, though their bullpen still needs a lot of help. A lot is riding on the health of those three new starters, too, as the options behind them are either unproven or lackluster. Texas feels like it’s about a year away from challenging the Astros or Mariners in the AL West, but the team might hit .500 this year, which would be a real sign of progress.

It’s hard to fault the Brewers for the moves they made this offseason. They upgraded at catcher by trading for William Contreras, took a chance on Jesse Winker bouncing back after a rough 2022, and made room for some of their young prospects to start making an impact at the major league level. It just might not be enough to keep up with the Cardinals or any of the other NL Wild Card hopefuls. Their pitching staff will carry the team like it has in the recent past, but the relatively low ceiling of their offense will likely hold the club back from taking a step forward. There’s a path to the playoffs if enough things break right, but Milwaukee is more likely to fall just short again.

It’s easy to play “what if” with the Giants’ offseason, though that wouldn’t allay any of the disappointment hanging over the club. To be fair, after missing out on all the big free agents they were pursuing, they did manage to improve the club with a handful of smaller deals. Will it be enough to chase down the Dodgers or Padres? Probably not, but it does move them into the Wild Card conversation. They have solid depth across their roster; the only thing that’s missing is a superstar to anchor their lineup… oh, right.

The Orioles will certainly be fun to watch this year as they graduate a number of their top prospects into everyday roles in the majors. Is there enough of a supporting cast surrounding those youngsters to get them into the Wild Card conversation? The projections say probably not, though big breakouts from their young core would certainly change the calculus. There’s a universe out there where all these prospects play up to their lofty expectations and the team sneaks into the playoffs ahead of schedule. But Baltimore is more likely a year or two away from challenging the best teams in the AL East.

After peaking at 93 wins in 2021, the White Sox stumbled through a disappointing season last year. The core of the roster is still intact, though the ceiling feels a bit lower now. The problem is Chicago has done very little to build around its young players, instead hoping for improvement from those already on the roster. And while the Sox have been sitting passive, their chief rivals in the AL Central have all made significant upgrades to widen the gap even further. Maybe it’ll all work out, but if anything goes wrong again, the depth is so shallow that they’ll face the same problems that sank their season last year.

The problems facing the Marlins aren’t anything new — a strong pitching staff that can’t carry the weight of a weak offense — but their solutions to that perennial problem are at least different. They’ve seemingly gone all-in on a high-contact offense, trading for the reigning AL batting champion in Arraez and signing Jean Segura to play third base. They’re also experimenting with moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field, though you’d be right to ask why they feel the need to do that in the first place. Will it all be enough? Maybe with some good health, some bounce-back seasons from Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García, and a whole lot of luck.

The Diamondbacks are no stranger to making challenge trades and went back to that well this offseason by swapping Daulton Varsho for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno. The rest of the moves they made this offseason addressed the depth of their lineup and bullpen, but they’re clearly not ready to go all-in yet. Banking on another year of growth from their prospects is likely in the cards for 2023.

The Cubs were certainly busy this offseason, adding to every part of their roster in an effort to compete with the Cardinals and Brewers in their division. More than half of their projected starting lineup is new to the organization, they brought in Jameson Taillon to reinforce the rotation, and the bullpen has been bolstered with a handful of new additions. Despite all that work to improve their roster, they’re now projected to win one fewer game than when these rankings last ran in November. You can squint and see good seasons from guys like Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and company to get them into the NL Wild Card conversation, but that’s a real long shot.

The Pirates were surprisingly active in free agency this offseason, signing six players to one-year deals totaling more than $30 million in spending. Nevermind that the average age of those new acquisitions is nearly 35. Someone needs to take the field everyday, and I guess they got tired of cycling through their depth in the high minors every year. The return of Andrew McCutchen is sure to be the feel good story in Pittsburgh this year, though all eyes should be on the development of Oneil Cruz and his outrageous tools.

The A’s finally moved one of their last big trade pieces in December, sending Sean Murphy to the Braves for a collection of prospects from Atlanta and Milwaukee. They also traded Cole Irvin to the Orioles to open up some space in their rotation for the young pitching prospects they’ve accumulated. The battle over a potential new stadium continues to drag on, and the question of whether or not they’ll be uprooted from Oakland in the coming years is still unsettled. Until it’s resolved, it seems like they’ll just tread water as they accumulate prospects and hope that some of them develop into some semblance of a future core.

The Royals have a handful of very interesting youngsters on offense to build around, but years of squandering the pitching talent in the organization has left this team a bit lost. New general manager J.J. Picollo has a tough task ahead of him, and he essentially admitted that few of the young pitchers already in the organization are ready to contribute in the majors. To that end, Kansas City brought in a couple of veteran starters to round out the starting rotation and re-signed Zack Greinke for one last season.

If nothing else, the Tigers simply can’t be as bad as they were last year. There is talent on this roster even if it never seemed like it in 2022. Barring another hugely disappointing season, a return to average after career-worst seasons from guys like Javier Báez, Austin Meadows, and Jonathan Schoop would ensure a few more wins this year, and growth from their young prospects could add a few more. That’s a small consolation and could be taken as a sign of growth, but there’s a ton of work left to do to get this team out of its extended rebuilding cycle.

The comments that owner Dick Monfort made about the difference between his club and the Padres with regards to spending really puts into perspective the bizarro world that the Rockies operate in. The difference between San Deigo’s projection and Colorado’s is not “three, maybe four starters.” That’s the type of thinking that leads to running back nearly the same roster that lost 94 games last season and hoping to get back to .500 this year. They do have a couple of fascinating prospects coming up through their system, beginning with Ezequiel Tovar, who should get a long leash as their Opening day shortstop, and a healthy Kris Bryant should help, but this team isn’t anywhere close to sniffing 81 wins in 2023.

Wil Myers is the perfect kind of veteran free agent for the Reds at this point in their rebuild. He’s a hitter that should be able to take advantage of the bandbox in Cincinnati, and the team should be able to flip him at the trade deadline. Beyond that, the Reds have a wave of prospects who are a year or two away from debuting, which means they’re in a bit of a holding pattern this season. They’ll be looking for continued growth from their young starters who have already made their debuts, and maybe a surprise breakout or two.

The Nationals are still for sale, and that will continue to cast a shadow of their season until a deal is finalized. On the field, they’ve got a few interesting guys starting to prove themselves in the majors, and Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith are the right kind of additions to make in the hopes that they can finally figure it out in Washington. The real meat of their rebuild is a few years away, so they’ll continue to dwell in the cellar for a while longer.

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