FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: January 10, 2026
Exciting news, everyone! In just about a month’s time, pitchers and catchers will be reporting to their respective spring training sites, with the rhythms of the game beginning once again. And with the start of mitts popping and best-shape-of-my-life boasting, the hopes and fears of baseball to come will be renewed.
Until then, we have plenty of things to give us Certified Baseball Sickos our fix. Four of the top five and six of the top 10 players on Ben Clemens’ Top 50 Free Agents rankings remain unsigned, including a trio of former Astros teammates in Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Framber Valdez. Also coming soon: the results of the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame election, which will be announced on January 20. As always, Jay Jaffe has been covering the ballot top to bottom with his indispensable series of player profiles.
We’ll talk a little bit of Hall of Fame today, but through the lens of the best pitchers who never received a Hall of Fame vote. Also in this mailbag, Michael Baumann digs into Chandler Simpson, Davy Andrews looks at whether inducing popups is a skill for pitchers, and Dan Szymborski explains which types of players have the widest variance in their ZiPS projections. Before we continue, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Willie Davis, Tony Phillips, Jimmy Wynn, Brian Giles, Tom Candiotti, Frank Tanana, Mark Langston featured in the set of the last four mailbags for dubious reasons. I’d gladly take that core of players for my team!
This could be the foundation of the best team in MLB history without a Hall of Famer or probable Hall of Famer. (Or guy kept out entirely because of PED use)
Is this better or worse than the core of the 2015 Royals? Or 2002 Angels? I think it is better. By a lot.
The team that I think would be hardest to top is the 2016 Cubs. I suppose Aroldis Chapman could get in but he is far from a lock.
Jon Lester feels like a future committee inductee
I definitely think Lester will get in eventually.
Chapman, Schwarber, and—hear me out—Joe Nathan, Jon Lester, and Ben Zobrist might all have cases. The first two by the writers, the last 3 by the right VC slate.
To say nothing of a potential David Ross managerial renaissance (Rossaissance?) and late in life HOF honor.
is that what you think?
Haven’t decided yet
Are you making fun of them for using the phrase “I think” or for commenting a lot? Either way it’s rude, but if it’s about using “I think,” a totally unremarkable phrase, then it’s also stupid.
The 2005 White Sox won 99 games and went 11-1 in the post season. None of them are coming close to getting in unless Reinsdorf holds a committee hostage for Mark Buehrle
Baseball fans in the 1970s but who didn’t follow the game in the 1980s would be surprised to find out what happened to Frank Tanana. Likewise, 1980s baseball fans who weren’t around for the 1970s would be stunned to find out what he was like then.
1970s Tanana: Hard throwing, hard drinking bad boy of the minor leagues who loves strikeouts and himself. Like his teammate Nolan Ryan, except with more attitude and less durability.
1980s Tanana: Junkballing innings-eater playing the crafty old vet role behind Jack Morris despite being basically the same age. Union rep. Loves Jesus.
I loved Frank Tanana’s curveball
RE: Simpson
I had no idea about the double-plays but it makes a ton of sense.
If you’re running a .050 ISO in the minors it means you have close to zero game power and you’re getting by on the fact that teams are running out guys like Gavin Lux and Isaac Paredes at shortstop, hoping they stick.
If you’re running a .050 ISO in the minors with 80 grade speed that means you have actual zero game power. Good luck trying to make it as the next Juan Pierre, Xavier Edwards, or Dee Strange-Gordon, you’ve got a long road ahead of you.
With a minimum of 400 PAs, Chandler Simpson had the lowest EV, second lowest EV90, and second lowest hard-hit rate in MLB. He–alongside Nick Allen–were the only two players to not hit a single barrel in that group.
From 2016 to 2025 there were only five players who ever had more than 400 PAs without a single barrel in a season. They were Dee Strange-Gordon (wRC+ of 77), Tony Wolters (50), David Fletcher (69), Nick Allen (53), and Simpson (88). Surprise! He’s already at the top of the range.
It’s so hard for a player to impact the game solely through steals. To be a positive contributor on offense with a wRC+ of 88, you have almost never get caught. Like Trevor Story this year, who only got caught 1 time out of 32 attempts. Which is harder at higher volumes (not impossible, but harder, Ohtani in 2024 and Ellsbury in 2013 were exceptions, but there aren’t many).
Jose Ramirez had what you might think of a “good” but not outrageously elite stolen base rate last year, 44 steals and 7 times being caught. His xSB is 4.9, which also led the league. Gives you a sense of what the contribution to offense is at that volume of steals at that success rate.
Masataka Yoshida had the same wRC+ as Simpson last year (88) and only marginally positive baserunning (0.2), giving him an Off of -2.7 in 205 PAs. Over 440 PAs that rate gets you to about -5.8. If Simpson steals at the same CS rate as Ramirez and successes with an 88 wRC+…you can do the math, -5.8 is further away from zero than 4.9. At this rate of stealing bases, you have to be closer to guys like Trevor Story from this year to get into positive offensive value when your wRC+ is 88, but over the same volume as Ramirez.
This is before we start talking about defense.
Chandler Simpson was one of our family favorites to watch while he was in Durham last year. I know what the numbers say and I agree with Michael that it’s not likely to end well, but it sure is aesthetically pleasing to have Chandler Simpson on first base and watch the cat/mouse game between the defense and Simpson as he tries to steal a base (or two).
Trade for Chandler Simpson? I’m sure Don from Seattle would be a swell guy to catch a ballgame with, but I’m glad he doesn’t run the Mariners.
You say being one of the best players to never receive a HOF vote isn’t a bad consolation prize for Steve Rogers, who was never even on a ballot, but I would argue it IS a bad consolation prize. The 1990 ballot included Tony Scott, who was only a full-time player for one season and accumulated 4.3 career WAR…Champ Summers, who was never a full-time player and had 3.0 career WAR…Jose Morales, literally a career pinch-hitter with 0.1 career WAR. WHY was Rogers, with 45 WAR, left off in favor of these guys?
Somebody powerful did not like Rogers. That the only answer that makes sense.
The Red Skull?
Maybe he didn’t officially retire or something? Did he attempt a comeback that delayed his 5-yr clock?
Steve Rogers came up in a recent-ish episode of Effectively Wild. Both Ben and Meg had a weird gap in their minds when it came to remembering him, which they attributed partly to his very commonplace name and partly to being a career member of a defunct team before they were alive.
I can’t quite remember the context, but they said someone had interviewed him about his career and he sounded like someone who had moved on with his life but enjoyed the opportunity to look back on his time in baseball.
Perhaps not a consolation prize, but if it’s any consolation, he didn’t appear to be in need of one.