FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: March 7, 2026
Hello from loanDepot Park in Miami, where I am covering Pool D of the World Baseball Classic. In the two games here Friday, Venezuela beat the Netherlands, 6-2, and the Dominican Republic defeated Nicaragua, 12-3. I am writing about those two games in a separate piece that will go live later today. You can find all of our WBC preview stories, as well as our coverage throughout the tournament, on the blog roll here.
Of course, those were just two of the eight games that took place on Friday. (Well, Friday in the United States, anyway.) Elsewhere in the WBC, Team Japan was every bit as dominant as expected in the first game of its title defense, blowing out Taiwan 13-0 in seven innings. Shohei Ohtani went 3-for-4, with his grand slam getting Japan on the board and kicking off a 10-run second inning. Cuba opened the action from Pool A in San Juan, Puerto Rico, with a 3-1 win over Panama. Puerto Rico, despite being without many of its best players because of insurance issues, shut out Colombia, 5-0, in the second game of that pool. Over in Houston for Pool B, Great Britain kept things tight with a superior Mexican team for the first seven innings before Mexico exploded for three runs in the eighth and four more in the ninth to win, 8-2. Then, in the second game at Daikin Park, Team USA routed Brazil, 15-5, in one of the oddest-looking blowout box scores that I can recall. The leadoff batter for Brazil, Lucas Ramirez, son of Manny, hit more home runs (2) than the entire United States team. The lone U.S. homer came when Aaron Judge a two-run shot in the first inning. The key difference in the game was the Americans drew 17 walks while issuing only one. Later, back in Tokyo for the final game of the night, a matchup of 0-2 teams, Taiwan trounced Czechia, 14-0, in seven innings.
We’ll be talking more about the World Baseball Classic in today’s mailbag, when we answer your questions about the future Hall of Famers playing in this year’s tournament, as well as the Dominican Republic’s chances of contending for the title with Japan, the United States, and Pool D rival, Venezuela. Also in today’s mailbag, we’ll look at the best baseball birthdays and honor Bill Mazeroski with the all-time Az team. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Eddie Kazak
All-palindrome team, go!
(and don’t you dare try filling it up with the best players named “Bob”)
Searching around, I find this. Kazak should beat out Johnny Reder at third base. We got Dick Nen at first and Robb Nen closing. Dave Otto and a bunch of Salases can also pitch, with Mark Salas catching until Ethan is ready; or maybe Truck Hannah. Toby Harrah is easily the MVP at third or short, which should push Dean Anna to second.
They haven’t come up with many outfield candidates. de Aza seems close enough, and as they say both Dick Nen and Mark Salas played the outfield a bit so if we shift Johnny Reder to first we’ve got a lineup. Of sorts.
(Besides Ethan Salas, we have Chase Renner in the minors, a Marlins 13th-rounder out of Penn State who in his first year… walked a lot of guys. Oh, and Jhonny Level of course.)
And Zach Pop should be in the bullpen!
I would be honored if my yearly membership fee went to Davy doing a weekly Davy-only chat that the rest of us just got to watch in real time.
Schwarber’s numbers may not be HOF worthy but he’s a first-ballot Hall Of Very Fun player
He’s the 99th percentile outcome for the Matt Stairs archetype.
Shane Baz could be the #2 starter. Laz Diaz would be the head umpire. Gazza (Paul Gascione, notable English footballer) would throw out the first pitch. Lil Nas X would sing the anthem. The first 15,000 fans in attendance would get a t-shirt of Taz (of the Looney Tunes).
#2 starter would be Javier Vazquez. Baz could be #3.
Post game concert by classic rock band Nazareth.
Or The Nazz.
Thanks for the full birthday table. October 23rd is 60th, led by Jim Bunning. I’ll take it.
I think Joe Azcue’s official name is Joe “who the heck” Azcue?
Well he’s an Az Man! So… Apologies to Alejandro De Aza (who once signed a napkin for my mom in a hotel elevator, which my mom then mailed to me, which I then chuckled at and threw out) but no Honorable Mentions for Yandy or Edwin Diaz?
The DR’s biggest weapon is walks.
Pitch count rules, maximums per pitcher:
-65 pitches per game in the first round
-80 pitches per game in the quarterfinals
-95 pitches per game in the semifinals and final.
Now here are the walk % numbers for the DR starting lineup. Keep in mind that there are only 35 players who had more than 500 PAs last year and a walk rate at or higher than 11%.
Tatis Jr: 12.9%
K. Marte: 11.5%
Soto: 17.8%
Vlad Jr: 11.9%
Machado: 8.1%
Caminero: 6.3%
J. Rodriguez: 6.2%
Wells: 6.7%
Perdomo: 13.1%
This could be even more extreme if Rafael Devers was in for Caminero (15.4%), or if reserve outfielder Oneil Cruz (11.8%) subs in for Julio Rodriguez. But even without him, this is a lineup that knows how to work the count. Five guys with walk percentages above 11% is a lot. If Soto wants to, he can extend a plate appearance to double digit pitches. He could do it without even breaking a sweat. With basically everyone on the roster having an above average OBP all they have to do is draw out PAs, get on base, and watch as the opposing team starts to run out of pitchers.
This probably works against any team except the US and Japan.
I wonder if we are going to see a sharp drop off with Machado. He hasn’t broken .800 OPS since ‘22, and his defense isn’t grading out as good the last couple of years. And his HOF Monitor & Standards scores aren’t there yet. Feels like he’s going to back into the HOF.
I am not super worried about the bat but I have no idea what is going on with his defense. I think he was hurt last year but the year to year trend has been stark.
…he’s already cracked 2000 hits and 50 JAWS, and has matched his career wRC+ over the last two years.
He’s already in.
Maybe it’s the west coast, but where I live the cutoff was always 9/1 for school grade, not 8/1
Historically it’s been different by state and sometimes the differences seem random. Some states do 8/1, others do 9/1, but a ton of states used to have cutoffs around January 1. For a long time Michigan was Dec 1. Nebraska was October 15. I seem to recall one state had the cutoff date set in May, because why not? But I can’t remember which one and I can’t find it online.
Pennsylvania is 9/1. I know as an August birthday and had the experience of the entire starting lineup on the 9th grade basketball team being older than me while I sat the bench on the 10th grade (JV) team.
August is the most common birth month so that tracks. February (fewest days) and April typically have the fewest births, so April’s ranking is intriguing. As for June birthdays, I guess we’re just natural slackers. I’d do some more analysis on that one, but I don’t even feel like finishing this sen
Lee Mazzilli could crack the AZ lineup.
As an “az” with an October birthday, I do appreciate this mailbag.
Kaz Sasaki is your bullpen ace.