FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: September 6, 2025
Hello everyone, and welcome to the first mailbag of September. We have just over three weeks to go in the regular season, and despite what our Playoff Odds say, I am still holding out hope for at least one or two exciting postseason races.
Entering play Friday night, 11 teams (six in the NL and five in the AL) had a better than 90% chance to reach the playoffs; at 74.2%, the Mariners were the only club in possession of a playoff spot that was on less solid ground. Three other teams could still spoil Seattle’s fun: the Rangers (12.5%), the Royals (10.6%), and the Rays (10.2%). Of the Senior Circuit teams that aren’t in a playoff position, the Giants (4.3%) had the best shot of snagging a Wild Card berth. However, for any of you cheering for chaos, the Reds (2.3%) host the Mets, the current six seed, for three games this weekend; Cincinnati began the series five games behind New York.
We won’t be answering any questions about the playoff race today, but we do touch on a couple of players on contending teams. Before we get to them, though, a few quick things: First, thanks to Meg Rowley for putting together last week’s mailbag while I was on vacation, which I spent in Toronto watching baseball! My dad and I had never been to Rogers Centre before, so we decided to check another ballpark off our list. Also, FanGraphs is hiring a full-time prospect writer. For more information, check out the job posting here. Finally, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Love the post about the “worst ever”..I do think you missed one, who is also more recent & is certainly worse than Doug Flynn, IMO:
Pat Rockett, who I have mentioned in a few Sunday comments. SS for ATL from 1976-1978, who combined Mario Mendoza like hitting with terrible fielding like few ever have.
Link to his Fangraphs page: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pat-rockett/1011092/stats?position=SS
-5.0 fWAR in 459 PA’s is quite impressive..bWAR has him at -5.5.
He did have a cool mustache, so that partly makes up for it,right?
Many years ago I came across a very Web 1.0 webpage that was something like 20,000 words on the worst rock band of all time. He limited it to bands that I think either had a platinum record or hit #1 or something like that, because he argued you can’t truly be the worst if no one knows who you are.
(He wound up selecting Motley Crue, which I agree with, they were terrible)
By that logic, the worst position player of all time is the following at each of the following PA levels, with 1962 to the present to make it more manageable and to ensure we have 162 game seasons and to get expansion:
5000 PAs: Neifi Perez (-3.3 in 5510)
7000 PAs: Alfredo Griffin (-1.0 in 7331 PAs)
When you play a bad player that much, it seems like the award should be for Worst General Managing.
Agree on Motley Crue. I am, unfortunately, the exact right age to have liked them in my teenage years & they were actually my first concert on the “Theatre of Pain” tour.
In looking back, their albums would have 1-2 “good” songs & the rest were just awful. & “good” song(s) would be the single(s)- LiveWire, Looks That Kill, Home Sweet Home, Girls, Girls, Girls, Dr.Feelgood, Kickstart My Heart..Those might be their only “good” songs (You could argue for Too Young To Fall In Love or a couple on the Dr. Feelgood album, but, their 1st 4 albums were mostly terrible). No decent deep cuts with these guys.
Not surprising from a group that was basically 4 raging alcoholic/cocaine/heroin addicts…& they’re still touring & were playing baseball stadiums a couple years ago on a tour with Poison/Def Leppard. (They closed the show in Detroit & were so bad that fans were walking out)
Amazing they’re all still alive, while Prince, Whitney Houston, George Michael & Michael Jackson have all passed.
In retrospect that whole wave of glam metal was a mistake. Motley Crue, Skid Row, Poison…I kind of feel like there was an entire cohort of bands that took the wrong lessons from Alice Cooper.
Are Def Leppard and Van Halen considered part of that group? I kind of feel like Def Leppard was one of the bands they were copying, and I didn’t see Van Halen in that category at all.
There are a lot of metal bands that I don’t like that I at least understand, because the best metal guitarists hold up against the most technically accomplished guitarists in any rock genre. If I listen to something like Slayer or Pantera, I think “this is not my cup of tea but these people are unbelievably talented.” I did not have that experience listening to Poison.
Disagree with a blanket statement of glam or “hair” metal was a mistake…depends on your classifications, but a number of groups were good/excellent, the issue was the decade of decadence, by the late 80s, some truly awful bands were getting major airplay because they fit in with the trend, hello Nelson Bad English, Danger Danger, Trixter, Nitro, etc.
Poison is mostly too commercial for my ears, and Motley Crue to a lesser degree, Skid Row were legit though, self-titled was commercial but a good offering, Slave to the Grind slays.
Van Halen and early Def Leppard don’t fit the bill, Leppard from Pyromania on yes.
Interesting take with Slayer and Pantera, what is it that is “not my cup of tea?” Music generally too intense for your liking?
Mostly it’s the vocals that make it not my cup of tea. I like more melodic music, so power metal is usually my favorite.
But the best thrash metal bands all very good at what they do, I can admire it even if it’s not my thing.
(I’m not a “real” metal fan, I but when you need something fast or heavy nothing else hits the spot like it)
Humorously (to me in this context) I can’t stand most power metal because of the vocals. If you’re interested in exploring a bit, and aren’t already aware, you can check out some 90s Swedish bands generally dubbed as “the Gothenburg sound” which while still using “cookie monster” vocals were fairly melodic and incorporated some “clean” vocals as well. If you want to go even more popular, check out early “killswitch engage” albums. They exemplify the “heaven and hell” vocals approach, though you’re still not going to get away from the “death” metal singing.
Yeah, some of those bands WERE really good, but, the ones you mentioned (& others) were just big because they fit the scene & the record companies promoted them & got them to write 1-2 love songs each record that would get radio airplay..
SkidRow, as you mention, is a good band, Slave to the Grind was a great thrash album.. Cinderella is a good blues band, Tesla is a good rock band. Scorpions were a good band. We saw Bon Jovi a couple of years ago, they were really good & more of a rock band, but, in the 80’s got pigeonholed in that “hair” metal genre.
Van Halen was NOT a part of that. Were earlier & had Eddie Van Halen, who was a genius. Def Leppard probably was, but, again, I think more talented. Hysteria was intentionally a “pop metal” album, they wanted a metal Thriller. There other stuff was better.
Van Halen (DLR-era) was undoubtedly an influence on the movement, but not really part of it, though you could probably make an argument for Sammy Hagar. Scorpions also predated it (started in mid-60s?) and probably spanned a few genres if you count their early work (and you should – Lonesome Crow is a great album). I saw them in ’84 with Bon Jovi opening (before they were popular). I saw Skid Row opening for Aerosmith (yes, that show with the bottle throwing). I probably saw a few others just by virtue of being alive in the right (wrong?) era. Not really my cup of tea, but there was some talent mixed in here and there.
Alice Cooper is a tremendous front man and a pioneer in his world. So very well respected. And an outstanding human being. I smile every time he is mentioned.
Maybe I’m just a bigger rock and heavy music fan, but Shout At The Devil is solid to good end to end, and is generally regarded as such by people doing ratings. Agree though, Crue is overrated by popularity versus quality of output.
There are probably a few more decent songs that I didn’t mention (Title track, Red Hot), but, still not that great, IMO. Still probably their 2nd best album..because Theatre of Pain & Girls, Girls, Girls are terrible.
I’ve thought Vince Neil may be the luckiest guy alive. Not a good singer, IMO, & didn’t write much of their songs (mostly Nikki Sixx), but, because he’s a good looking blonde guy he’s had this long career..Add in that he killed a guy drunk driving & didn’t even go to jail for it.
Yes to Theatre of Pain, Girls Girls Girls and Vince Neil.
RIP Razzle.
“He argued you can’t truly be the worst if no one knows who you are,” made my day. Thanks.
I read something the other day where someone said that Sparky Anderson was one of the best managers because he shifted Pete Rose to third base and got George Foster into the lineup everyday. I’m sorry, but benching Doug Flynn is the obvious move. And benching Doug Flynn because you have Joe Morgan, Dave Concepcion, and George Foster is blindingly obvious.
You would think the Mets were intentionally trying to be bad. Doug Flynn had the third most PAs on the Mets between 1977 and 1981 while slashing .234 / .264 / .292. Among second basemen with at least 1000 PAs for the same team in that stretch, he had the second lowest batting average and the third worst slugging percentage. He had more ground out double plays than he had doubles. He was caught stealing twice as often as he had successful stolen bases.
You didn’t even need to look at his .264 OBP to know that he was a black hole on offense, much less any modern stadium-adjusted stats. But he had 2269 PAs for the same team. Among players with at least 2000 PAs for a single team in that stretch of time only two players had lower batting averages than him. One hit a bunch of home runs (Wayne Gross) and the other was literally Ozzie Smith at shortstop. Same with slugging percentage. You had to wear either a literal or metaphorical blindfold to ignore how bad he was at hitting.
If we need to pick an artist with rock/metal tags, roll with Limp Bizkit, Crue at least have redeeming moments, though yes, overrated.
Neifi does better, not good :), with other sources on his defense, allows Pete Suder to make a run for the money at the 5k PA level.
Not the worst, but wanted to mention a player that was well regarded during his playing days. Total Zone defense is giving him a lot of credit, where others are not, Baseball Projection has Vince Coleman comes below replacement level for his career!
Just WOW on Pat Rockett, I like your definition best here.
This would indicate that Doug Flynn is the worst player of my lifetime. Which seems…about right, now that I think of it.
When I submitted the question, I looked at the fWAR laggardboards to make my guess. I saw Bergen there, but as a catcher at the turn of the 20th century, I figured the game was different then and he probably brought some skill to the table that fWAR couldn’t really measure and I didn’t feel comfortable picking him. I also discounted Doumit because catchers in general get a lot of (justified, to me) leeway for intangibles that are still hard to measure today. My pick was also Flynn because he was a position player in a modern enough era that people should have recognized he was bad and yet somehow, he kept getting opportunities. And not just as a utility player. He topped 570 PA twice and 470 three other times. He started 1105 of the 1309 games he appeared in over 11 seasons for 5 teams. He was always a bad hitter, never more than an average baserunner, and only once a really good fielder.
He must have had blackmail material on half the league to keep getting jobs.
Or at least the Mets. He was joined the Mets in 1977 and slashed .191 / .220 / .220 over 300 PAs. Only 7 extra base hits, 14 runs and 14 RBIs. He was rewarded with 1150 PAs over the next two years, where he put up -2.9 fWAR. They really should have known better!
Doumit definitely didn’t get leeway for intangibles. He always had a reputation as a bad defensive catcher (hence my crack that he should be called Dunkin’ Doumit, because America runs on Dunkin’). He kept getting playing time because he hit well for a catcher.
What happened with him was that he played in the few years when it was too early for anyone to have quantified framing yet, but late enough that when they did figure out how to quantify framing, they were able to go back and apply the numbers to his career. And it turned out his numbers were BAD. Nobody could have imagined that anyone could have numbers at anything as bad as his framing numbers were. Doumit’s framing numbers were the cursed number from xkcd. And he had three partial seasons of catching before those numbers kicked in, so he’d probably look even worse if not for that. Though you might want to give him leeway if you find the Fangraphs framing numbers to be extreme.
Anyway, two years after Doumit left, the Pirates signed framing genius Russell Martin and made the playoffs for the first time in approximately ever.
A comment about xkcd and metal on my favorite website. What an incredible day!
Yes, catchers and all, but that 2019 season by Mathis has to be one of the worst ever. A single digit wrc+ (2) in 244PAs has got to qualify him for something. I wonder now if any players have had more than one season of single digit wrc+ (or less) in substantial playing time.
Easy enough to look up.
Setting the playing time minimum to 240PA and focusing on years after integration, there are only two! Mathis is in 2nd place though and Brandon wood is in “1st” with a wrc+ of 1. Man those angels prospects. Talk about “heaven and hell”.
Doug Flynn also says “hello” in 9th for his wrc+ of 21 in 1977.
Yeah, he’s certainly the worst player that had a real career. That was that era where managers would sacrifice all offense to get a decent SS defender. There were a bunch of those guys in the late 70’s- Mario Mendoza, Luis Gomez, Tom Veryzer, Pepe Frias, etc.
I think Baltmore’s success with Mark Belanger is what caused this..but, he was truly a great fielder (maybe the best of all time) who would also take a BB, not just average/above average with a zero bat.
My guy, Rockett, is the worst by rate (He’s probably the worst by rate of anybody that had more 100 AB’s or something), but, he was so bad, he was done at age 23. Rockett’s defensive stats are so bad that they’re almost comical- -38 Total Zone with 28 errors in 1083 innings.
Don’t forget that Doug Flynn put up that negative WAR in the context of a contending Expos team! He was deplorable and absolutely responsible for their early eighties underachieving
From having one or two of his cards as a kid (and now googling) I recalled he had “the good face”. Looks like he and Beane didn’t quite cross paths with the Mets though.
But I do have to give a special shoutout to Neifi Perez, who played a full season at shortstop for the Royals and had less than 30 extra base hits. The Royals have been cursed with more terrible shortstops than any team I can remember with Perez, Angel Berroa, Yuniesky Betancourt, and late stage Alcides Escobar.
The team with the worst shortstop play in its history is definitely the Padres but the Royals had a stretch of shortstops so bad between 1983 and 2010 it is hard to believe it happened. From 2002 to 2010, which is as far back as I can get it, the Royals were below replacement at shortstop. That is a very long period to be below replacement!
The Royals have been “cursed” with bad shortstops like my cousin has been “cursed” with obesity after eating a bucket of ice cream every day.
They weren’t “cursed”. Cursed implies some external factor beyond their control. Accumulating light-hitting players was literally their organizational philosophy for an awful long time.
I guess it is more accurate to say the fans were cursed with that.
I’m not sure if you’re referring to Dayton Moore but things were mostly adequate once they undid the acquisitions of Betancourt at shortstop (and Jose Guillen). It was Allard Baird and Herk Robinson who are responsible for Neifi Perez, Angel Berroa, and David Howard. And it was really mostly shortstop that was the problem, those front offices also found Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, David DeJesus, etc. It was really the middle infield where they were terrible.
For determining the worst player ever, I assumed we’d just look at lowest WAR. What I love about Fangraphs is that that’s exactly what we did, but not without lots of interesting alternative paths and discussion first. Thanks for all the great content!
You have to do a little critical thinking beyond just looking at the leaderboards. For instance, the second worst hitter in MLB history by fWAR is Gus Weyhring at the end of the 19th century with -10.2. But he had 49.0 positive pitching fWAR, so he clearly is far, far from the worst player ever.
For the pitcher who maximizes his gifts the most, I will nominate Ranger Suarez. Webb has a great sinker and changeup, so even though he’s not lighting up radar guns the “stuff” is pretty good. What would you give his sinker and changeup? Maybe a 60 and a 55? A 65 and a 55?
Suarez is different. I think you could give his sinker and his curveball a 50, but his other three pitches probably grade out at a 45. But he’s so incredibly deceptive, has great command, and sequences well. He’s a bit like Logan Webb, except he throws from the left side and has worse stuff across the board.
You could also make an argument for Michael McGreevey, who really should not be a major league pitcher right now at all, much less one who can run out there as a fifth starter without embarrassing himself.
This is awesome stuff!
Whenever Mötley Crüe comes up, I immediately think back to when the video for “Home Sweet Home” was the #1 request on MTV for over three months until they created a new rule so a different video could take the top spot.
That, they did. One of their few good songs..good enough for Carrie Underwood to cover 🙂
Thank you so much for the response. Loved reading about lucky/unlucky hitters!
Thanks for submitting the question!
Shout out to Moe Berg, who had two positive value years (by bWAR, and three by fWAR) out of fifteen seasons in the majors.
My impression is he didn’t really want to be a ballplayer, but he liked the travel and downtime that came with it. He wasn’t a “character” in the likable or good-for-the-clubhouse sense, but did have enough of a enigmatic charisma about him that Joe Cronin kept bringing him back.
bWAR gave him two positive seasons both (0.7) with a total career of -4.7, and fWAR’s three positives are all 0.2 with a career of -4.4. Just under 2000 PA.
I am not advocating for him to be high on this list, but he was the first one I thought of.
> My impression is he didn’t really want to be a ballplayer
The proto Anthony Rendon it sounds like!
He was a spy in WWII. There is a book called The Catcher Was a Spy about him & it was made into a movie starring Paul Rudd.
He went to Columbia, so I think he was thought of as a brainy player.
It’s an interesting book – less a baseball book than a profile of a remarkably enigmatic and distant-in-a-sad-way person.
My takeaway was he was intelligent, aloof, delusional (in his view of himself), and persistently self-promoting – all in such a way that he briefly stumbled up into a spy-ish kind of role. Some folks genuinely cared for him – he was quirky and low-key charming and genuinely helpless in some key ways of life. But the military intelligence folks didn’t think that much of him or what he accomplished.
I thought going into reading the book I would put Moe Berg up on a pedestal, but thats not the kind of person he was or life he had. I did develop a soft spot for him though – I’ve known a couple folks over the years that fit the description. Nice, interesting, intelligent, often kind – but too erratic in some way to ever build a foundation for themselves. You worry they will reach that point where they’ve used up all their resources and burned one too many bridges – feels like that was the last half of Berg’s life.
just a correction – i did not go to medical school. i am an original doctor – thats right i have a PhD
why is everyone booing meJust want to shout out an honorable mention for worst player, Giants legend Johnnie “Boo” LeMaster: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/johnnie-lemaster/1007513/stats?position=SS. -6.6 fWAR/-5.4 bWAR over 3500 PAs. I guess he was able to stand at SS instead of 2B, so he gets the positional adjustment above his contemporary Flynn, but a career wRC+ of 58 has to put you in the conversation.
I use a cutoff MIN PA of 2400, though I lower it to 2383 for one exception. I also AVERAGE bWAR and fWAR (and their PA figures, which often differ very slightly).
Ranked by their rate of Avg. WAR/640 PA, the worst I’ve found since 1900 are (and I might have missed some):
Name Position PA Rate of WAR/(640 PA)
Bill Bergen C 3231 -2.29
Tuck Stainback CF 2383 -1.48
Juan Castro SS 2849 -1.30
Doug Flynn 2B 4085 -1.19
Bob Lillis SS 2492 -1.17
Billy Hitchcock 3B 2502 -1.16
John LeMaster SS 3515 -1.09
Dan Meyer 1B 4030 -0.95
Don Heffner 2B 2847 -0.93
Tom Veryzer SS 3098 -0.90
Gary Sutherland 2B 3385 -0.90