Freddie Freeman Is Lifting Up the Braves

There’s a danger in waiting to write a post about how the narrative surrounding a particular statistic, because the statistics are always changing. I’ve been meaning to write a post about the Atlanta Braves for a while, and specifically, the Atlanta Braves’ offense. I got the inspiration to write about the Braves offense last week, when some sorting of leaderboards for an entirely differnet topic led me to the realization that the Braves had had baseball’s best second-half offense, up until that point. “The Braves Have Had Baseball’s Best Something” would be the headline, and I would take a look at all the young, exciting players that have fueled this second-half surge for the Braves, and how it bodes well for the future of their rebuild.

Well, things change. The Braves no longer have had baseball’s best anything, because they no longer have baseball’s best second-half offense. That honor goes to the Dodgers. The Braves have now had baseball’s second-best second-half offense, and that’s not nearly as compelling a title. And the more I looked into it, my hypothesis for a narrative just didn’t hold up anyway. Honestly, in the grand scheme of things, this second-half offensive surge by Atlanta isn’t all that interesting. The part that’s interesting is that Freddie Freeman has been so damn good, he’s tricked an entire team into appearing compelling.

I’ll give them this: Ender Inciarte’s been fantastic, and that could be big for the future of the Braves. He’s been worth more than three wins in the second half alone, and it’s not just due to his elite center field defense; he’s also ran a 132 wRC+ over more than 300 plate appearances. But break down his first-half 66 wRC+ and his second-half 132 wRC+, and the number of similarities is a bit disconcerting. The walk rate and strikeout rate from the two halves are each within a half-point of each other. The second-half power’s still been well below average. Nearly the entire difference comes from a .255 first-half batting average on balls in play versus a .398 BABIP since the All-Star break, and without a noticeable change in the batted-ball profile. It’s nice to see Inciarte producing, but I don’t see a reason to view him much differently now than we did in the spring: a league-average-ish hitter with an elite glove. A three- or four-win player. At 25 years old with a league-minimum salary, that’s a super valuable piece to a rebuilding club, but the point is: his crazy second-half numbers don’t really do much in the way of shifting the needle.

The rest of the non-Freeman, second-half surgers? Anthony Recker (124 wRC+), a 32-year-old, lifetime-backup catcher. Matt Kemp (122 wRC+), whose plate-discipline improvements since leaving San Diego can only be viewed as a good thing, but who also will almost certainly not be a member of the next good Braves team, and about whom we probably know enough at this point not to be tricked by 50 decent games at the plate. Tyler Flowers (115 wRC+), whose offensive leap in concert with his plus framing ability is perhaps somewhat interesting, but who is also on the wrong side of 30 with a long track record of offensive mediocrity. Nick Markakis (114 wRC+), who is what he is, and Erick Aybar (111 wRC+), who’s no longer on the team.

That shiny, (almost) league-best second-half offense would be a hell of a lot more encouraging if it were Adonis Garcia, Jace Peterson and Dansby Swanson leading the revolution. But the truth is, those guys have all been roughly league-average hitters, which is better than at least one alternative, but also doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence.

So it turns out it’s Freeman who’s deserving of almost all the attention, and I’ve probably buried the lede significantly by waiting to post his stats until now. And I’m going to move by arbitrary end point back even further, because it makes this all the more impressive. Since the All-Star break, Freeman, at the plate, has been second only to Joey Votto, but this hot streak dates back further than the midseason classic. Dating back to June 13, a sample that covers a healthy 415 plate appearances, Freeman has slashed .351/.451/.681, good for a 194 wRC+. Let those numbers sink in. That’s about two-thirds of a full season with an OBP nearing .500 and Mark McGwire’s career ISO.

And there’s something refreshing about the way Freeman’s been doing it. He’s always had a great eye, and the walk rate’s spiked to new levels lately. Part of that might have to do with the other batters in the Braves offense, but more than anything else, it’s probably got to do with Freeman becoming one of baseball’s most premier power threats over the last three months. I’ve written time and time again this year about players pulling more balls in the air for more power — think Brian Dozier, Jake Lamb, Tyler Naquin, and just yesterday, Asdrubal Cabrera — and frankly, it’s gotten a bit repetitive. So it was pleasing to find that Freeman’s going the other way. Literally.

Yeah, he’s getting more balls in the air. He’s been getting more balls in the air every year of his career. But here’s the other half:

It’s not a career low, but Freeman’s on a run of his lowest pull rate in years, dating back to 2013, which just so happens to be his best offensive season, before this one. He’s pulling ground balls at a career-low rate, meaning fewer automatic outs into the teeth of the shift, making that .378 BABIP (quick note: it was .371 in that oppo-heavy 2013) appear a bit more signal than noise. And, more importantly, when Freeman takes pitches the opposite way, he’s doing it with authority. His 40% hard-hit rate to the opposite field is fifth among qualified hitters. His .418 opposite-field ISO ranks fourth, and has only been getting stronger as the year’s gone on.

Paired with Gold Glove-caliber defense and plus base-running for a first baseman, Freeman’s turned in a six-win season, and has been the game’s best first baseman by more than a win according to our WAR model. And while we may not be able to say the same for many of his teammates in Atlanta, it’s been a hell of a year for Freddie Freeman, and the future’s never looked brighter.