Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/30/16

September 30, 2016

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’m back to being late again

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat!

9:09	CamdenWarehouse: Is there actually evidence that says mid range power guys hit more warning track fly balls than the bigger power guys or is this something that just seems correct?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I think to me and others it just seems correct. Now, this is something that would be possible to investigate with Statcast, so with good fortune someone will take it up in the coming weeks or months to confirm

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’d really like to know how evenly or unevenly fly balls end up being distributed

9:11	JT: Do you feel there is any substantial difference in outcomes between managers who rest 1 guy at a time and play every game at 90% VS managers who put out “Sunday lineups” and basically punt 1 game per week?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine there would be any meaningful difference. I see advantages and disadvantages to both and a lot of it probably comes down to what the players in the clubhouse would prefer. The former gives you a fighting chance in every game; the latter is more predictable and could help various players relax

9:12

BJOGC: Jeff, why do the A’s do what they do? I get that they are a small market but the Indians, Rays and Pirates all have similar payrolls and they manage to hold onto their homegrown guys at least through their arb years and they can sometimes find money to extend them. The Marlins have a lower payroll than the A’s and they found the cash for Yelich and Stanton. Why do they blow up their entire roster every season?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say they do it every season. To answer directly, they don’t have a Yelich, and they would probably disagree with the idea that extending Stanton was smart. I don’t think the A’s want to end up handcuffed by a contract like that long-term

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Now, they are going to continue to try to work something out with Sonny Gray. They made a legitimate effort to try to re-sign Rich Hill. Josh Reddick, too. They’re not opposed to extensions or long-term contracts. They’re just wary of them

9:15	Rog: Jeff, do you think some of the difference homerun gains could be related to pitcher approach for individual hitters? Maybe everyone is getting the same boost from a more favorable ball, but the top power hitters and being approached differently, off-setting some of the gains?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I buy this — the top power hitters would have always been approached differently. I’m more likely to buy a change in approach in the other direction, with more and more hitters just being willing to let it fly

9:16	Andre Dawson’s Creek : Man, Jeff, your articles stick with me. No matter what I’ve read I’ll always end up thinking about something you wrote. Thanks for sharing your talent and hard work with us

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I appreciate this although I have to say sometimes I don’t know what I’m doing.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Like the other day when I wrote about the Nationals and Wilson Ramos and so on. I get what I was going for but I don’t know what the point of that article was

9:17	Erik: Just looking at their roster, the Rangers look ever bit a legitimate 94-win team. But BaseRuns has them at basically .500. What am I missing?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: For most of the season they didn’t have Lucroy or Beltran (or Jeffress). The offense hasn’t been dominant and the pitching staff has allowed a good number of runs outside of Hamels/Darvish

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rangers made themselves a lot stronger at the deadline but just looking in hindsight, it’s amazing their record is what it is

9:19	Andrew: As a Mets fan, last night’s Cardinals game makes me unbelievably stressed. Yadier Molina, a lead going into the final series, tons of injuries. Lots of bad Mets memories here. Talk me off the ledge, please?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: While the Giants have to deal with the Dodgers and the Cardinals have to try to squeeze by the Pirates, the Mets have the opportunity to play three against the Phillies

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, if the Mets blow this, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs

9:20	Fire Kevin Cash: Why not have umpire discretion in placing runners after an automatic double? E.g. if a runner on first was already running, he’d probably score. Why send him back to third?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I was just reading about this a little while ago. I’m not sure. I’m going to guess it’s because baseball wants to minimize the amount of times calls are left up to the umpires’ judgment

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: In that way it’s protective. In the long run, a rule like this won’t play any favorites. And because it’s set in stone, there’s no arguing it

9:22	Richie: On time maybe for the 3rd week in a row?? If so, Boss Dave should’ve moved west years and chats ago.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I sure showed you!

9:23	Andrew: I don’t know much about this Alec Asher guys the Phillies are throwing against the Mets tonight. What do you think about him?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: As a general rule I like prospects who throw so many strikes. Location gets underrated relative to quality of stuff, and Asher is more of a control/command guy. Not likely to become a strikeout pitcher but a lineup that’s too patient will find itself behind in an awful lot of counts

9:27	Erik: Even though the Royals weren’t very good this year, they still managed to outperform their BaseRuns record by 8 games. Have they kept it up long enough that we ought to think it’s a repeatable skill yet?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s something to the idea that teams are maybe gradually figuring out ways to out-perform the numbers. And in the Royals’ case I’d guess a chunk of this is having that really topheavy, lopsided bullpen. So they’re equipped to keep their leads, even though in other games they might allow a bunch of late runs

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not doing a great job of putting this into words. But I think the Royals kind of have a “win-this-game” group of pitchers and a “get-them-tomorrow” group of pitchers. The greater the difference between the two groups, the more you can out-perform the overall indicators, I think

9:30	Dis One: Best team of the decade thus far? ’11 Phillies? ’16 Cubs? ’15 Cardinals?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I have to think 2016 Cubs but I’m probably going to try to write about this on Monday when the season’s complete

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Some of this depends on how strong you think is the difference between leagues

9:31	Mike Rizzo: Give it to me straight Jeff, how bad is it? First Stras, then Murphy, then Harper, now Ramos. My playoff chances ride on Danny Espinosa and Ryan Zimmerman

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon!!!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect Murphy will be back, and I think Harper’s going to be okay, relative to what he’s been the last several months. The Nationals still have a good shot, especially if Joe Ross looks healthy

9:34	Nathan: If you were the mets, would you rather face Bumgarner and the Giants pen (given the mets struggle vs. lefties typically) or the Cards in one-gamer?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Gotta think Martinez and the Cardinals. He’s good and they’re good, but Bumgarner is more likely to just totally take a game over

9:37	Rob: What was your take on the Bob Nightengale ‘story’ regarding Ventura? Whatever the intention, it was poorly conceived.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: So, I actually missed this, because around this time in the year I’m never interested in reading about managers

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Really, it doesn’t matter the time of year — I mostly skip articles about managers because I don’t know what to make of them. I don’t know who’s good or who’s bad so it doesn’t grab my attention when someone is on the hot seat

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: But! Now I’ve done some quick reading

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Looks like Nightengale got used

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not altogether unusual

9:41	Tebow Time: Did you see my homerun the other day? I hit the ball off a real professional baseball player.

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: There’s the potential for this to become an incredible story. The only problem I have for the moment is that it’s not yet anything like an incredible story. Right now it’s just a dude who did one thing trying to do another thing. If he actually climbs the ladder, then *that* would be fantastic

9:42	Jozef: Now that Justin Upton’s got his hitting stats a little closer to his normal range, is there any consensus on what happened to him this spring and early summer? Ir was it just an extended blip from a high strikeout guy?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I think his swing just became a little long and it was easy to exploit him with fastballs that he used to demolish. Bad habits like that can develop over time and for all I know it’s possible Upton tried too hard at first to justify the contract he signed. It looks like he’s reduced his vulnerability to heat, having slightly shortened up, and while he’s always been a streaky player, 2017 should be a lot better than 2016 on balance

9:44	CamdenWarehouse: Is Zunino’s future one of alternating incredibly hot streaks and times that look like 2015? Basically, this year.

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: He’s always going to be strikeout-prone, and he’s always going to do the bulk of his damage with the longball. Kind of like Upton above, he’s going to be streaky. When a handful of balls go out in a week, he’ll be the team MVP. When those balls die or get fouled off instead, he’s going to go hitless

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s important that Zunino keep walking like he is — at least that offers some relief from a constant stream of homers and whiffs

9:46	Greg: Has Kershaw done enough since coming off the DL to at least be a legitimate cy Young option?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: To me, anyway. But I’m not a voter for that one

9:47	Mike: Awards picks?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Trout and Bryant

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Sale and…Syndergaard?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: And while I can’t reveal who I’m voting for in the AL for ROY, the NL is obviously Seager

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: the AL race pretty obviously comes down to Fulmer vs. Sanchez

9:50	Erik: How many teams still wouldn’t be contenders next year even if they bought every free agent they wanted this off-season?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Probably three or four. As you know, the market’s not good

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: There’s Cespedes at the top. Jansen and Chapman. Hill! There’s probably enough that even the worst team could pull itself up to .500

9:51	Chris: If the Red Sox and Rangers meet in the ALCS, the Sox would be heavily favored right? Rangers have the peripherals of a .500 team

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers are also stronger now than ever before, and the Red Sox apparently won’t have Drew Pomeranz in the starting rotation

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers added Lucroy, they added Beltran, they added Jeffress, they added Gomez, and now they’re getting Choo back

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I’d still give the Red Sox the edge because of their lineup, but nothing about that series would be lopsided

9:52	Mike: Who would win in a game of one on one basketball, you or Dave Cameron?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Presumably Dave Cameron, on account of he has played more basketball in the last 15 years

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: But I would easily out-climb that basketball-playing son of a bitch

9:53	Scott: How many even years in a row would the Giants have to win the World Series before it became statistically significant, and you would start to expect them to win every other year? 20 times? Never?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I would never be able to talk myself into believing it’s a real thing, just because it wouldn’t make any sense, but if the Giants win again this year then I know come 2018 my perception is going to be colored, even against my better judgment

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think we all know it’s silly but it’s the kind of silly that just kind of sits there forever in the corner of your brainspace

9:55

Trouble With the Curve: I played baseball in college in Michigan and I’m from Chicago (huge Cubs fan). It was fall of 2015 and the Cubs picked up Quintin Berry for a couple pinch runs in September. My pitching coach told me he would start him over Dexter Fowler. During our discussion about this insane comment, he claimed that ‘WAR is a stat made up by scientists to try and quantify a game they don’t understand’. What is your response to people who try to take the Hawk Harrelson approach? Personally, you don’t need to be a certain type of fan to know that Dexter Fowler and Quintin Berry aren’t even in the same league. Thanks!

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I try not to get into arguments — we’re all just sports fans, and I’m not going to criticize the way somebody else prefers to enjoy the game. In a case like that where someone is being openly stupid, I’d probably gently break WAR down and talk about Fowler’s superiority in various categories, but I’d never let myself get aggravated over it. It doesn’t make a difference. That guy isn’t calling any shots; he’s just crossing his fingers like everyone else

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: In baseball I’m a complete stat nerd. In hockey I try to avoid being a stat nerd because I want the release without having to overthink it. There’s a lot of fun to be had with either perspective. Can’t go wrong unless you choose to be an ass

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Unless someone’s being an ass, live and let live

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: If someone is being an ass, tell them Quintin Berry sucks