Future Closers Making Early Season Waves

Aroldis Chapman steamrolled the Cardinals this afternoon, striking out five of the seven batters he was asked to face. He’s now struck out 10 of the 17 batters who have come up to hit against him this year, and perhaps more importantly, he hasn’t walked any of them. Chapman’s improved command in spring training doesn’t look like it’s showing any signs of going away, and right now, he’s among the most feared relievers in baseball.

But, he’s not the only setup man off to a fantastic start in 2012. While obviously everything at this point in the year is SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, there are a few eighth inning arms that have opened my eyes over the last few days.

Bryan Shaw, Arizona

I’ll be honest – before seeing him pitch for the Diamondbacks in the postseason last year, I’d never heard of Bryan Shaw. Considering that I write about baseball for a living, I try to keep up on every team’s roster and have a decent understanding of their key guys, but Shaw was new to me in October. His nasty sinker cutter and pretty good breaking ball were eye-opening, and I put him on my “guy to watch in 2012” list. So far, he’s picking up essentially where he left off last year.

He’s faced 10 batters in 2012 – four have hit the ball on the ground and three have struck out. A year ago, 75 of the 122 batters he faced in the regular season either struck out or hit a grounder, and then it was 8 of 13 in the playoffs. Shaw’s ability to miss bats while also locating down in the zone with consistency has allowed him to dominate Major League hitters during his short big league career, and this skillset projects out very well. Often times, pitchers with this pitch mix struggle against opposite handed hitters, but Shaw’s been able to hold down LHBs to date, and is looking like the heir apparent to J.J. Putz’s throne.

Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle

You may have heard Wilhelmsen’s story by now – 7th round pick by the Brewers in 2002, spent one year in Milwaukee’s farm system in 2003, was suspended for marijuana use in 2004, and quit baseball in 2005. He ended up becoming a bartender for five years, and then decided to attempt a comeback with the Mariners in 2010. He still threw hard, so the Mariners gave him a look, and less than 18 months later, he was in the big leagues. But he wasn’t any good – the stuff was there, the command was not, and even after getting sent back to Double-A, Wilhelmsen wasn’t really all that effective. Then, in mid-August, something clicked.

Wilhelmsen threw three scoreless innings on August 20th, striking out three of the 10 batters he faced. That proved to be the start of an 18 1/3 inning run to end the season where he walked one and struck out 20 of the 65 batters who hit against him. His mid-90s fastball and power curve were finally hitting their spots, and he was the Mariners best reliever for the final month of the season.

It’s carried over to 2012. 22 batters faced, no walks, 6 strikeouts. More tellingly, 74% of the pitches he’s thrown have been strikes. His fastball is still sitting at 95 and touching 98, while his 78 MPH curve has real bite and is turned into a legitimate outpitch. Wilhelmsen reminds me an awful lot of a young Troy Percival, and while he’s not that young himself anymore, it might not be too long before he ascends to the closer’s role in Seattle.

Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis

Boggs has more big league time than either of the first two, and is a little less obscure, but he might have made the most significant change of the three. Last year, Boggs relied heavily on his fastball/slider combination, and as a result, he was dominant against RHBs (3.05 FIP/3.19 xFIP) but less so against LHBs (4.12 FIP/4.48 xFIP). He wasn’t atrocious against southpaws, as he still threw enough strikes to get by, but his GB and K rates were significantly lower, and he profiled best as a right-handed specialist.

Well, this year, Boggs has shown up throwing a change-up that he hardly used a year ago. Last year, 16 of his 966 pitches were change-ups – this year, 6 of his first 68 have been. It’s still not a primary pitch for him, but he’s showing that he’s got more confidence in it this year than in the past, and that could be the key to allowing him to improve enough against LHBs to become a legitimate one inning guy rather than a match-up righty. With Jason Motte closing games, the Cardinals aren’t in need of a new closer, but Boggs could slide in as valuable 8th inning, especially if his change-up keeps lefties at bay.