Having an Actual Ace Is Pretty Sweet, Isn’t It?

It was the dawn of a new era in Baltimore, as the new owners made their first real impression on their new adoring public. Michael Arougheti bought a round at the bar. David Rubenstein visited the MASN booth and held forth on the Magna Carta with Ben McDonald; the conversation had to drift that far afield because Rubenstein’s two-inning television appearance was extended when Patrick Sandoval simply could not get out of the inning. Before Rubenstein left, he asked (I’m choosing to interpret this as a sick burn rather than a genuine point of inquiry) if MLB had a mercy rule.
The Orioles won 11-3. Every Baltimore starting position player reached base and either scored or drove in a run; eight of the nine recorded at least one hit. And only three of the 10 hits went for extra bases. This was one of those methodical conga line outings in which the Orioles won not so much by knockout as by submission. Had the norms of the game allowed the Angels to tap out without shame, they might’ve done so.
I want to show you, somewhat paradoxically, a home run by Mike Trout.
.@MikeTrout homers in his first at bat of the 2024 season! ?#RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/Zg8PHg92Vu
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) March 28, 2024
This came with two outs in the first inning. Baltimore starter Corbin Burnes, well to be totally frank, he hung a slider pretty badly, and you can’t do that to Trout. If the Millville Meteor had yanked the ball just a little more to the pull side, it might’ve died for an out in the Gleyber Torres Memorial Cutout in left field at Camden Yards. Instead, it went for a home run.
I show you this because Trout’s home run was Burnes’ only blemish in his Orioles debut. He retired the other 18 batters he faced, 11 of them on strikeouts. Let’s put that in perspective. The last Orioles pitcher to allow one baserunner or less in a start of six or more innings was Matt Harvey in 2021, which, sweet mother of Mercy, that’s not the answer I was expecting. The John Means no-hitter was earlier that season.
But after that, the list thins out considerably. Burnes is just the eighth Orioles starter to go six innings and allow one baserunner since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954. Two of the other pitchers on the list are Mike Mussina and Jim Palmer.
And Burnes did it in his first start with the Orioles.
That’s not particularly uncommon for Burnes. This was the eighth start of his career (out of 168) with six innings pitched and one or zero hits allowed. It’s the third start of that length with only one baserunner allowed.
The Angels don’t have the strongest lineup in the sport by any means, but they’ve got some decent hitters. If post-comeback Miguel Sanó pans out, this is a lineup without a real no-hoper. And Burnes worked through it with all the ceremony of a man eating a Toblerone. Any Burnes start features death by a thousand cutters, but his greatest weapons on Opening Day were his two breaking balls.
Burnes threw 16 sliders, of which three were put in play. That included the Trout home run and the other moderately dangerous batted ball the Angels produced: a sixth-inning fly out by Logan O’Hoppe. O’Hoppe also popped up on a slider in the third.
And those were the only three breaking balls the Angels put in play all afternoon. Burnes threw 36 breaking balls, got 10 called strikes, 15 swings, 10 whiffs, two foul tips, two field outs, and Trout’s home run.
This being the first week of the season, Brandon Hyde lifted his ace after just 82 pitches with the Orioles leading 8-1. No need to put unnecessary strain on the most precious arm this team has had since Mussina left.
We know what the Orioles’ young lineup can do. We know the quality of this bullpen, and the baserunning, and so on. And I like the rest of Baltimore’s starters. Grayson Rodriguez could be really good, and I think both Means and Kyle Bradish (once they come back) are highly underrated pitchers.
But it’s been more than 20 years since a good Orioles team has had anyone like Burnes. A legitimate ace, a playoff stopper. When I was at Camden Yards for the ALDS last year, I was impressed by the depth and resiliency of Baltimore’s hitters, but I was appalled by how completely its starting pitchers and long relievers — including Bradish and Rodriguez — got whittled down to smooth nubs by a patient Rangers lineup. They needed an asskicker, badly, and they got one.
Burnes, ironically, had seen his Brewers bounced from the first round four times in five seasons. In that time, Milwaukee managed a total of one win and 16 runs scored over nine games. As badly as the Orioles have needed a true no. 1 starter, Burnes has needed an offense that could score — to pick a number out of thin air — 11 runs against an opponent’s Opening Day starter.
I think back to those scenes from earlier in the day. It’s great that Rubenstein can talk about his blue-collar childhood spent in local public schools. (And for the record, I have never heard someone with such a thick Baltimore accent talk about how they worked in the White House and served as chairman of the board of trustees at Duke.) It’s even better that Arougheti is handing out free beer, and that the new ownership group has mended fences with Cal Ripken Jr.
These are necessary steps toward building credibility with a fan base that had been tormented by the stewardship of Gob and Buster Angelos for too long. But once the honeymoon phase dries up, Orioles fans will care most of all about whether the team wins. This is every sports fan’s primary concern, from sea to shining sea. And it’ll be there that Rubenstein’s reputation is made, for good or ill.
Want to prove you’re serious about winning? Don’t let Burnes make it to free agency. Don’t let the pitcher this team has been chasing for decades walk after one year. It’s only been one start, but I’ve seen enough.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
Without a doubt, bringing in Burnes was an extremely positive move for the Orioles success in 2024. I just had thought that they would have brought in one more big name pitcher.
However there are the resources still available that if they do determine the need before the trade deadline, they can still do just that.
They can, but they could have topped what the Padres gave up for Dylan Cease and the they could have signed Blake Snell for what the Giants paid. And the Diamondbacks deal for Montgomery was about ask risk free as a pitcher signing can be. At least one of Westburg or Hjerstadt or Cowser could have been traded. At some point they need to be in “win now in the playoffs mode”.
I agree Ivan, and to be honest I was disappointed, but I am trying to be hopeful and look at the bright side lol.
All decent ideas which werent going to happen under previous tightwad ownership. We’ll see if it is a different day now.
The Orioles did offer more for Cease than the White Sox ended up accepting from the Padres, but much like Scott Boras in free agency, Chris Getz completely misjudged the trade market until most suitors had already moved on to other alternatives. I do wish that they had been in on Montgomery, and maybe they would have if the ownership change had been official one month earlier, but most teams are reluctant to add $25 million just before the start of the season.
But ultimately, neither of those guys nor Snell have the credentials that Burnes does, so it’s not clear that they would be dramatic upgrades for the Baltimore rotation. What’s much more concerning is the state of the bullpen, which relied heavily on Felix Bautista. Kimbrel can’t come close to replacing that by himself, so I would have liked to see another signing or two to improve the back end depth.
Mike Elias still has plenty of time to let the lineup shake out before needing to move Kjerstad or Norby or Westburg. It’s a 162 game season, and injuries are going to happen, so it’s helpful to have competent bats that can plus inevitable gaps.
I don’t think the Padres offer was better than what the White Sox got, though I admit that I don’t really know how to value draft picks. DL Hall is not worth much more than Steven Wilson, in my opinion. He’s younger and has better stuff, but has awful control (at least as a starter), making him a good reliever at best.
I really like Ortiz, but I think Thorpe + Iriarte is worth more, at least to the White Sox.
But again, I have no idea how to value that 2nd round draft pick. Is that worth an FV 40? 45?
Steven Wilson is 27, has no chance of being a starter, and has never been on any major Top 100 list. D.L. Hall is 25, has four plus pitches, and has been on every major Top 100 list.
It will be OK if they wait until June to deal for another starter,nobody ever won a pennant in April. Even the ’84 Tigers were required to play for another six months before being given the Commissioner’s Trophy.
But not now
I’m not going to rehash what I said in the trade article, but it is really hard to overstate how unspectacular the O’s starters have been since Mussina was traded. Even those mid 2010s teams that were successful had rotations headlined by guys like Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen. Watching Corbin Burnes pitch for them is like having someone walk up to your campsite with a lighter and kerosene after you’ve been trying to start a fire by rubbing sticks together for 20 years.
I remember that the Orioles used to be known by their pitching. Guys like Jim Palmer, Steve Stone, Mike Flanagan, Scott McGregor, and Mike Mussina among others.
Others include Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, and Mike Boddicker, plus lots of others that had one or two big seasons for them in the 70s.
Stone, Flanagan, McGregor, McNally, Cuellar and Boddicker had success but weren’t really “great”. They were “good” with great defenses. This team’s defense isn’t “great” enough to make guys at that level really successful, maybe unless they put Mateo in the Mark Belanger role. Henderson at 3B could be fine in the Brooks Robinson/Doug DeCinces/Manny Machado role. Holliday could fill the Davey Johnson/Bobby Grich role. Westburg isn’t at that level and they have no one for the Paul Blair role
From when Mussina left the Orioles as a free agent after the 2000 season, to now, team SP fWAR:
338 LAD
312 NYY
297 CLE
294 CHC
293 CHW
291 HOU
290 PHI
289 BOS
281 NYM
270 OAK
…
206 SDP
202 CIN
194 PIT
181 KCR
173 BAL
He was a big part of Yankees 312
34.6 in fact. 9th in all of baseball for that stretch.
God does this hit the nail on the head. I’ve perhaps seen better pitching performances in the last few years, but they’re of the “greatest game of his life” type like the Means no-hitter. It just looked easy. So many called strikes and whiffs.
“In his first Orioles start, Corbin Burnes worked through the Angels’ lineup with all the ceremony of a man eating a Toblerone.”
Literally cackled like a madman in the middle of my office after reading that subheading.
I’m not sure where the Toblerone joke comes from. Can somebody explain it? also, Burnes was great.
This is Kyle Bradish erasure and I will not stand for it
I saw this spectacular start described as “the first opening day start with 11 K, 0 BB, and 1 run or fewer”.
But Bob Gibson had a 13K CG shut out one year. JR Richard had a 12K, 1 ER performance.
What is it about baseball fans and writers that they find pointing out the meaningless uniqueness of something like Burnes’ start interesting? Why isn’t it enough to say it was an amazing start for Burnes. That it is a great start or omen for the O’s season.
Why force a “first time ever” narrative like this? I mean Darvish and Glasnow are probably the first pitcher’s to start 2 of their teams first 3 games in a century. Should we be making a big deal out of this nothin-burger of an observation?
Now that you mention it, that Darvish and Glasnow stat is kinda cool…
It’s a “fun fact” for sure, but does it say anything other than the Seoul Series happened.
For the first time ever!
Skeptical about the value of meaningless uniqueness? Baseball might not be the sport for you.
I’m genuinely asking – not for gatekeeping sanctimony – but an explanation…
What do people find interesting about “first to throw 11K and 1 run on opening day” when “13 K and 0 runs on opening day” already happened?
Fair enough! Here’s my good-faith opinion, as someone who has edited a couple books about the esoteric/aesthetic appeal of baseball, so I’ve done my share of thinking about it. As Jon Becker wrote today elsewhere on FG, “the sport is in a constant state of homeostasis.” And yet despite that, despite the constant barrage of similar-looking data points, there is also constantly something that has never happened before. And that’s a cool thing!
Much of it is not overly consequential, which I think is what you’re gesture at here. But it is all still interesting, at least to me. Much in the same way that I might look at a small artifact – like a piece of brass from an old sunken ship – in a museum. It doesn’t mean much in its own right, it’s just a hunk of old metal, and it would suffice to say “this ship sunk hundreds of years ago!” on a plaque and call it a day, just as here Baumann could have simply said “Burnes = good” and filed the article. But the details of “meaningless uniqueness” (which is such a lovely term, by the way) add texture to the whole enterprise. They show me how it fits into baseball’s larger historical narratives. They provide a novel way to gesture at the impressive athletic feats we’re watching. And they give me something else to think and talk about aside from “Damn, the Angels are pretty bad again, huh?”
I appreciate that they might not resonate for you, but for me and, anecdotally, for others I’ve spoken to as well, there’s a fair degree of aesthetic novelty for something that hasn’t happened before – even if it’s so small as to barely matter in a hard-nosed way. It’s just kinda neat, and if I’m gonna follow baseball then why not enjoy all of it, including the weird, small, odd stuff.
I also think that the ability to do this sort of “here’s a thing that’s never happened before” thing is baked into the very character of baseball as a sport, since it has so many discrete, measurable events. So why not point it out?
tl;dr As Marge Simpson once said, “I just think they’re neat!”
I basically agree that story stats which rely on arbitrary exact numbers (exactly 11K) are stupid. But combo stats that rely on minimums/maximums (at least 11K) can be cool.
What would a Burnes extension look like? 5 yrs $190 mil?
That wouldn’t be a bad deal given what the Yankees offered Rodon and Snell
I think you’re like halfway there
In an article with plenty of great prose, this line is my favorite: If the Millville Meteor had yanked the ball just a little more to the pull side, it might’ve died for an out in the Gleyber Torres Memorial Cutout in left field at Camden Yards.
I’m fine with a rigid rule of nothing but 2 year max contracts for any free agent for the Orioles, and pouring all energies into having quality players under team control.
I saw a study, now lost to me that FA contracts as a whole since 2016 (or so) are worth 30 cents on the dollar by WAR.
If you isolate by starting pitcher, its way less.
Just stick with team control, closer to the draft the better.
Free agent contracts are almost always pennies on the dollar by the last few years. Thing is, those last few underwater years are how you get the good years that are supposed to provide surplus value.
Exactly – the idea is that, over a 5 year contract, you pay them for 4 WAR when they’re worth 6 WAR in the front end and when they’re worth 2 WAR in the back end…and it all comes out in the wash.
Moreso than the math, offering extra dollars on the backend can entice a player to an otherwise unattractive market.
That said, math-wise it also makes sense for a team to lock in fixed costs for future years when dollars won’t be as valuable rather than, say, dealing with constant arbitration hearings (aka yearly raises).
That calculation depends on your assumptions of what makes up a “dollar”. If it’s impossible to get a 4-5 WAR player to fill your roster hole then it’s a perfectly valid strategy. Being fine with the roster hole is a good way to reduce the value of your brand.
Now will someone help the fan base that’s been tormented by Arte Moreno for so long?
Moreno spends money. Unfortunately he insists on deciding how to spend it
Gob and Buster Angelos had me dying.
I did a double-take on that line. Perrrfect.
They have to hope Means and Bradish are worthy because the bullpen isn’t great and there isn’t that much available in mid season trade. Bieber? Peralta? Luzardo?
finally! someone to eat through the angels lineup
Michael Arougheti is a good guy. He was the manager for my son’s t-ball and “coach-pitch’ little league teams about 11 years ago.
Our end-of-season team party those years? Luxury suite at Yankee Stadium for each player and two guests! (a far cry from the backyard barbeques most team have).
We were friendly at the time, but had I known he was *buying a baseball team* rich, I probably would have stayed in touch better! 😉
Budding aces are a lot of fun, too. Pittsburgh is buzzing about Jones and Skenes, they both were electric yesterday.