Here Are Some Recent Prospect Movers
We have a sizable collection of players to talk about this week because the two of us have been busy wrapping up our summer looks at the 2020 Draft class over the last couple weeks. This equates to every prospect added to or moved on THE BOARD since the Trade Deadline.
Top 100 Changes
We had two players enter the 50 FV tier in Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo and Padres C Luis Campusano. Perdomo is in the “Advanced Baseball Skills” player bucket with players like Vidal Brujan, Brayan Rocchio and Xavier Edwards. He’s added visible power since first arriving in the States and had as many walks as strikeouts at Low-A before he was promoted to the Cal League, which has been Campusano’s stomping ground all summer. He’s still not a great catcher but he does have an impact arm, big power, and he’s a good enough athlete that we’re optimistic he’ll both catch and make the necessary adjustments to get to his power in games down the line.
We also moved a D-back and a Padre down in RHP Taylor Widener and 1B Tirso Ornelas. Widener has been very homer prone at Triple-A a year after leading the minors in K’s. His fastball has natural cut rather than ride and while we still like him as a rotation piece, there’s a chance he continues to be very susceptible to the long ball. Ornelas has dealt with injury and swing issues.
On Aristides Aquino
Aristides Aquino was a 50 FV on the 2017 Reds list; at the time, he was a traditional right field profile with big power undermined by the strikeout issues that would eventually cause his performance to tank so badly that he became a minor league free agent. A swing change visually similar to the one Justin Turner made before his breakout (Reds hitting coach Turner Ward comes from the Dodgers) is evident here, so we’re cautiously optimistic Aquino will be a productive role player, but we don’t think he’ll keep up a star’s pace.
Other Notable Adds
Several tooled-up center fielders were added recently. Giants DSL CF Luis Matos is another young San Francisco outfield prospect with big bat speed and a chance to play a premium position. Phillies CF Johan Rojas has a rough swing but he’s a 70 runner with power and is performing in the Penn League at age 19. Both of them are 40+ FV players now. Twins CF Willie Joe Garry Jr. and Oakland CF Marcus Smith are two recent draftees from less talent-dense locations who are performing at their respective affiliates. Garry has power potential but has swing and miss risk while Smith has natural feel to hit, which is why we’re a little higher on Smith right now, though Garry’s pop gives him a bit more upside.
Singling out Pantuso
Oakland RHP Alex Pantuso was a senior sign out of Slippery Rock in the 2018 draft’s 31st round. He’s nearly 24 and was in the AZL a week ago, but he might be pitching at the back of a big league bullpen within a year. After sitting 90-93 in college, Pantuso now has late-inning stuff and will touch 98 with a plus slider. He was recently promoted to Vermont.
Added
Aristides Aquino, RF, CIN, 45
Luis Matos, CF, SFG, 40+
Johan Rojas, CF, PHI, 40+
Marcus Smith, CF, OAK, 40
Mason Martin, 1B, PIT, 40
Cody Morris, RHP, CLE, 40
Jerar Encarnacion, RF, MIA, 40
Riley Adams, C, TOR, 40
Fabian Pertuz, 3B, CHC, 40
Jack Herman, RF, PIT, 35+
Spencer Steer, 2B, MIN, 35+
Austin Shenton, 3B, SEA, 35+
Jose De La Cruz, RF, DET, 35+
Willie Joe Garry Jr., CF, MIN, 35+
Thad Ward, RHP, BOS, 35+
Breidy Encarnacion, RHP, MIA, 35+
Devin Mann, 2B, LAD, 35+
Levi Kelly, RHP, ARI, 35+
Eduardo Vaughan, CF, BOS, 35+
Kyle Finnegan, RHP, OAK, 35+
Alex Pantuso, RHP, OAK, 35+
Isaac Mattson, RHP, LAA, 35+
Yunior Perez, RHP, CHC, 35+
Martin, Jerar Encarnacion, Adams, Steer, Shenton, and Mann all have strength-driven power and are performing. Morris, Ward, Finnegan, and Mattson all project as contributors on the bottom third of a staff, probably on that major league/Triple-A taxi squad early on. Pertuz and Herman are righty bats with power projection. Herman’s comes from his wiry frame, while Pertuz’s comes from his swing, which lets him lift stuff at the top of the zone.
Moved Up
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, ARI, 45 to 50
Luis Campusano, C, SDP, 45 to 50
Shane McClanahan, LHP, TBR, 45 to 45+
Tarik Skubal, LHP, DET, 40 to 45
Kolby Allard, LHP, TEX, 40 to 40+
Hector Yan, LHP, LAA, 35+ to 40
Sadrac Franco, RHP, LAA 35+ to 40
McClanahan has pitched with the kind of stuff he had at his college best, when he seemed like a top-five possibility. Skubal is throwing about 66% fastballs, which would be at the very high end of what we currently see from starters, but it’s an impact pitch. His changeup might be, too, but the breaking stuff — a curve and slider — are just okay. Allard’s velo is up a bit. Franco has power stuff and Yan has kind of a lefty Freddy Peralta vibe.
Moved Down
Taylor Widener, RHP, ARI, 50 to 45+
Tirso Ornelas, LF, SDP, 50 to 45+
Lucius Fox, SS, TBR, 45+ to 45
Franklin Perez, RHP, DET, 45+ to 45
Seuly Matias, RF, KCR, 45+ to 40+
Alvin Guzman, CF, ARI, 45 to 40+
We decided Fox’s lack of power will likely prevent him from performing like a true average regular. Perez has been hurt most of the year, again. Matias had hand surgery and is out for the year. Eric got a bad report on Guzman’s bat from the DSL.
Graduated
Luis Urías, 2B, SDP, 55
Josh Naylor, 1B, SDP, 50
Peter Lambert, RHP, COL, 50
Jordan Yamamoto, RHP, MIA, 40
Tommy Edman, 2B, STL, 40
Matt Beaty, 1B, LAD, 40
Ctrl+F “SEA”: ooooh, five results! Hmmm… SEArch, SEAn Dolinar, SEAson Preview, ReSEArch… and Austin Shenton, a 35+ 5th rounder in A ball.
Seems about right.
lol, exactly this. I found this comment cycling down the SEAs. In fact, your “SEA”s are highlighted as I type this.
It’s times like these I envy teams with initials that can’t be used in common words, like NYY, CWS, and STL.
Sucks to be WAS though.
Because everyone likes bat flips and catchers that hit for average, hit for power, walk, throw runners out, and frame. Let me introduce you to the Mercedes Benz G63:
https://twitter.com/i/status/943355978984165382
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Yamamoto, I like to think he could end up being a solid #3-4 starter.
Love these pieces! One note: Turner Ward had nothing to do with Justin Turner’s swing revamp–it was Marlon Byrd and Doug Latta (and Mark McGwire was the hitting coach for LAD at the time JT came over from the Mets anyway).
FWIW, there was some talk about Ward going to CIN to keep Puig from slipping into bad habits, but I have no idea if it’s true (and it didn’t seem to help, as he’s been better since leaving CIN…)
To be fair, Puig being better since leaving CIN is likely nearly-if-not-100% attributed to his BABIP being a ridiculous 200 points higher (~.270 in CIN to ~.470 in CLE). His K% and BB% are the same. His ISO is worse (how much that is park-related is — though logically a lot — unspecific).
ISO usually dips if you are being blessed by the babip gods. It makes sense intuitively. If 5 bloop singles were caught instead for outs, your ISO would improve.
ISO = Extra Bases / At Bats
Singles have literally no effect on it.
It’s quite the opposite. Assuming talent is equal, a player with a higher BA will usually have a higher ISO bc some of his extra BIP will become doubles and triples.
For this reason, isolated power should be calculated as the ratio of SLG to AVG, not the difference.
Don’t quite agree. A higher average guy won’t have a higher ISO because the extra bip will create extra XBH but also singles. What matters is the percentage of XBH not the absolute number.
I don’t think that BA affects ISO much, however contact quality does.
Regarding babip it is positively correlated to exit velo but negatively to pull rate and launch angle.
So we can’t say power hitters have low babips, power hitters with a conservative batted ball profile (say 35-42% pull rate and 40-45% gb rate) tend to have high babips (JD Martinez, miggy).
Who does have low babip is power hitters with pull rates over 45+ especially when it comes with high launch angles. Jose bautista is a good example (47% pull, 38% gb for his career and 264 babip).
This is because his pulled FBs were homers at a high percentage and if it wasn’t a homer it often was a grounder into the shift or a fly out.
Nice to see Cody Morris added, he has the looks of the next mid round college RHP the Indians just plug into their rotation in a couple of years.
But I’m also wondering why Civale hasn’t moved from a 40 overall. I’ve only seen his four ML starts, but his FB plays way better than a 40 FV you have on THE BOARD, it’s avg 92.4, t95 and has lots of movement and spin. It’s a 50 imo and with two 60s and two more 50s on your scouting list… that 5 pitch arsenal with legit 60 command? That’s the SP I’ve seen so far, but then we’re looking at a legit no3 SP here., right? And certainly better than 40 FV. Plesac skyrocketed to 45 FV, but the fan eye test (not just me) is pretty uninomous, Civale is a much better SP talent than Plesac.
Any consideration to bumping Vilade? He’s really killing it last 250 PAs. Not walking enough but Ks down to just 12% over that stretch. Still just 20. I think you guys are a little low on him.
Woods-Richardson gotta be moving on up. youngest player in full season ball, and crushing A+.
With Luis Matos getting some attention out in the DSL, understandably as he’s probably been the best hitter in the league all year, I’ll mention that the best 17 YO LHH on the circuit, with some pretty periphs, has been the Cubs’ Yohendrick Pinango. Pinango’s already hit BA’s midseason top 30 for the Cubs, not not disappointed to see him fail to attract here with FanGraphs’ tools to highlight how clean the season has been (single digit K rate, 17 is The Right Age in the DSL, shrinking GO/AO,etc). OTOH appreciate the Pertuz attention, hope this offseason to see these young bats take over the top 20 spots that generic full season pitching has gotten lately in Cubs rankings. Pinango’s like Pertuz in that the high DSL SB totals belie a long term offensive game that isn’t built on speed at all
Also also Miguel Amaya is rocking a 126 wRC+, double digit HRs including oppos his last couple at least, a ~18% K rate, and -.170 IsoSLG as a 20 YO catcher in the Carolina League. This from a guy already considered a good all around defensive catcher with improving arm strength and general strength. This is less a case to move him up yet, still has AA to tackle, and more about how he’s basically AA away from establishing himself as one of the best all around prospects in baseball. Lots and lots of positive pro reps at a relatively fast and steady pace through the minors for this guy, bat upside’s always been in the periphs
Not sure why I felt the need to say all that instead of not
So Aquino is called up and does this, and he is somehow lower than 2017? I get it he is two years older, but it sort of reminds me of how slow people were to respond to Aaron Judge.
Just wanted to give you guys a huge thank you. I’m on a trip with friends seeing four games in four days and your board, team top prospect rankings and write ups have been invaluable. Each night we’ve been able to find and appreciate guys we wouldn’t have necessarily noticed if not for all the info you two have up on this site. It even helped me gain some feed as I was able to predict a Chris Betts dinger in the BG Hot Rods game last night having just read your plus power rating. So thanks guys. Keep up the great work.
Kevin Padlo was a major piece in a huge trade a few years ago. After a poor 2018, he is having a huge 2019. Is there any buzz about him? He’s rule 5 eligible this off-season.
Surprised Jose Suarez is not on the Graduated list. He exceeded 45 days on the active MLB roster a week ago, and exceeded 50 IP this weekend. MLB Pipeline removed him from their prospect list with its recent update.
A name I’m surprised is missing, Gabriel Moreno, Catcher, Blue Jays, Midwest League.