Here’s Who’s (Maybe) Going to Win the 2024 World Series
After a thrilling end to the regular season that saw the Tigers and Royals clinch playoff berths after long October absences and the race for the final NL Wild Card spots come down to Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers and, for the first time in his MLB career, Shohei Ohtani. And though the bracket boasts top seeds that could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 22 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs!
American League
Wild Card Series
Astros vs. Tigers Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 13 |
| Detroit Tigers | 9 |
Orioles vs. Royals Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 12 |
| Kansas City Royals | 10 |
Division Series
Guardians vs. Astros/Tigers WC Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 10 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 8 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4 |
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Yankees vs. Orioles/Royals WC Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 18 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 3 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 |
League Championship Series
American League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros | 9 |
| New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians | 6 |
| New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers | 1 |
American League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 13 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 |
National League
Wild Card Series
Brewers vs. Mets Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 16 |
| New York Mets | 6 |
Padres vs. Braves Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 21 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1 |
Division Series
Phillies vs. Brewers/Mets WC Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 20 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 |
Dodgers vs. Padres/Braves WC Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 12 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 10 |
League Championship Series
National League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | 12 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 1 |
National League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8 |
| San Diego Padres | 8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 |
World Series
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres | 5 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 |
| Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres | 3 |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
World Series Champion
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 7 |
| New York Yankees | 7 |
| San Diego Padres | 4 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 |
Writer Predictions
American League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
| Writer Name | HOU/DET WC | BAL/KCR WC | CLE/WC DS | NYY/WC DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | HOU | BAL | CLE | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | DET | BAL | CLE | NYY |
| Dan Szymborski | DET | BAL | DET | NYY |
| David Laurila | HOU | BAL | CLE | BAL |
| Davy Andrews | DET | BAL | DET | BAL |
| Eric Longenhagen | DET | BAL | CLE | NYY |
| Esteban Rivera | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Jason Martinez | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Jay Jaffe | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Jeff Bellone | DET | BAL | DET | NYY |
| Jeff Zimmerman | HOU | KCR | HOU | KCR |
| Jon Becker | DET | KCR | CLE | NYY |
| Kiri Oler | HOU | BAL | CLE | NYY |
| Leo Morgenstern | HOU | BAL | HOU | NYY |
| Matt Martell | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Michael Baumann | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Michael Rosen | HOU | KCR | HOU | NYY |
| Paul Sporer | DET | BAL | CLE | NYY |
| Tess Taruskin | DET | BAL | CLE | BAL |
| Travis Ice | DET | BAL | DET | NYY |
National League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
| Writer Name | MIL/NYM WC | SDP/ATL WC | PHI/WC DS | LAD/WC DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | MIL | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Ben Clemens | MIL | ATL | MIL | LAD |
| Dan Szymborski | MIL | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| David Laurila | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Davy Andrews | MIL | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Eric Longenhagen | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Esteban Rivera | NYM | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Jake Mailhot | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Jason Martinez | NYM | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Jay Jaffe | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Jeff Bellone | NYM | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Jeff Zimmerman | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Jon Becker | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Kiri Oler | MIL | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Leo Morgenstern | NYM | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Matt Martell | NYM | SDP | PHI | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Michael Baumann | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Michael Rosen | NYM | SDP | NYM | LAD |
| Paul Sporer | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Tess Taruskin | MIL | SDP | PHI | SDP |
| Travis Ice | MIL | SDP | PHI | LAD |
League Championship Series and World Series
| Writer Name | ALCS | NLCS | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | NYY | LAD | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | NYY | MIL | NYY |
| Dan Szymborski | NYY | LAD | NYY |
| David Laurila | CLE | SDP | SDP |
| Davy Andrews | BAL | PHI | PHI |
| Eric Longenhagen | CLE | PHI | PHI |
| Esteban Rivera | NYY | SDP | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | NYY | SDP | NYY |
| Jason Martinez | NYY | LAD | NYY |
| Jay Jaffe | NYY | SDP | NYY |
| Jeff Bellone | NYY | SDP | SDP |
| Jeff Zimmerman | HOU | PHI | HOU |
| Jon Becker | CLE | SDP | CLE |
| Kiri Oler | CLE | PHI | PHI |
| Leo Morgenstern | HOU | PHI | PHI |
| Matt Martell | NYY | PHI | PHI |
| Meg Rowley | NYY | PHI | PHI |
| Michael Baumann | HOU | PHI | PHI |
| Michael Rosen | NYY | LAD | LAD |
| Paul Sporer | NYY | SDP | SDP |
| Tess Taruskin | CLE | SDP | SDP |
| Travis Ice | NYY | LAD | LAD |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
MLB would love a Yankees vs Dodgers World Series. In reality, we’ll get a Tigers vs Braves World Series… and that’s Okay!
I mean, it’s not just MLB who’d love to watch Ohtani/Mookie/Freddie vs. Judge/Soto!
My personal preference is for Phillies or Brewers vs. O’s or Guardians, but Yankees/Dodgers would be a heck of a fun watch.
I’m going to be rooting hard for the Royals and Brewers here, but I think the chances of that World Series matchup is probably close to zero. Both teams have some huge holes that I think are going to do them in during an LCS if not before.
In terms of teams that seem more likely to me, I’d be super excited to watch the Orioles versus either the Padres or Phillies. I love what these teams are doing and would be excited to watch them square off.
That’s absolutely the blockbuster matchup, but I think the most interesting potential matchup would be Yankees/Padres.
Here I was, thinking I could go against the grain by picking the Padres to go all the way…but it doesn’t look like it. I think they’ve been pretty underrated but they’ve got the rotation and bullpen to grind down opponents. And they are 6th in wRC+ in MLB, behind the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, D-Backs, and Astros.
The Phillies are also pretty fantastic, and the fact that the Padres will have to go through the Dodgers and then probably the Phillies is the only reason I wouldn’t pick them to go all the way if it was my actual money. The Dodgers are a flawed team, but the offense is explosive so they could take a series or two and it wouldn’t surprise me at all–they did win 98 games. And the Phillies team is set up a lot like the Padres. I think I’d probably pick the Phillies if I had to choose because I like them to get to the LCS a lot more.
I don’t like the AL teams nearly as much as the NL ones. The Orioles’ rotation situation scares me a lot, and so does the back half of the Yankees’ lineup and their bullpen. I think that means I would pick the Astros, despite the fact that I will actively be rooting against them. The lineup is deep with a couple of established offensive stars, the rotation is okay as long as Kikuchi doesn’t implode, and they have a strong top 3 for their bullpen even if they’ve all underperformed a little bit this year. But the Orioles and Yankees are arguably just as good.
I usually pull for either ex-White Sox who have given me pleasure, which would be either San Diego (Cease) or Atlanta (Sale, but he has one), or great players who haven’t won one which would be Phillies (Harper), Dodgers (Ohtani), or Yankees (Judge). But I have a lot of trouble rooting for the Yankees. I feel like of those last three, Harper is the one whose clock is likely to run out first so he would lead that trio. Also, I’d like to see Ohtani pitch in the post season and put up a really memorable, dominant, 2 way performance and that can’t happen till next year.
I am actively booing Leo and Baumann. If the Yanks lose another LCS to Houston, I might need take a mental health month from work.