Here’s Who’s (Maybe) Going to Win the 2024 World Series

by
October 1, 2024
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

After a thrilling end to the regular season that saw the Tigers and Royals clinch playoff berths after long October absences and the race for the final NL Wild Card spots come down to Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers and, for the first time in his MLB career, Shohei Ohtani. And though the bracket boasts top seeds that could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 22 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.

Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs!

American League

Wild Card Series

Astros vs. Tigers Wild Card Series
Winner Votes
Houston Astros 13
Detroit Tigers 9

Orioles vs. Royals Wild Card Series
Winner Votes
Baltimore Orioles 12
Kansas City Royals 10

Division Series

Guardians vs. Astros/Tigers WC Winner Division Series
Winner Votes
Houston Astros 10
Cleveland Guardians 8
Detroit Tigers 4

Yankees vs. Orioles/Royals WC Winner Division Series
Winner Votes
New York Yankees 18
Baltimore Orioles 3
Kansas City Royals 1

League Championship Series

American League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup Votes
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros 9
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians 6
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers 3
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles 2
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals 1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers 1

American League Championship Series
Winner Votes
New York Yankees 13
Cleveland Guardians 5
Houston Astros 3
Baltimore Orioles 1

National League

Wild Card Series

Brewers vs. Mets Wild Card Series
Winner Votes
Milwaukee Brewers 16
New York Mets 6

Padres vs. Braves Wild Card Series
Winner Votes
San Diego Padres 21
Atlanta Braves 1

Division Series

Phillies vs. Brewers/Mets WC Winner Division Series
Winner Votes
Philadelphia Phillies 20
New York Mets 1
Milwaukee Brewers 1

Dodgers vs. Padres/Braves WC Winner Division Series
Winner Votes
San Diego Padres 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 10

League Championship Series

National League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup Votes
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres 12
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies 8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets 1
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers 1

National League Championship Series
Winner Votes
Philadelphia Phillies 8
San Diego Padres 8
Los Angeles Dodgers 5
Milwaukee Brewers 1

World Series

World Series Matchups
Matchup Votes
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres 5
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 5
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies 3
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres 3
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies 2
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies 2
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers 1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1

World Series Champion
Winner Votes
Philadelphia Phillies 7
New York Yankees 7
San Diego Padres 4
Los Angeles Dodgers 2
Houston Astros 1
Cleveland Guardians 1

Writer Predictions

American League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Writer Name HOU/DET WC BAL/KCR WC CLE/WC DS NYY/WC DS
Ariel Cohen HOU BAL CLE NYY
Ben Clemens DET BAL CLE NYY
Dan Szymborski DET BAL DET NYY
David Laurila HOU BAL CLE BAL
Davy Andrews DET BAL DET BAL
Eric Longenhagen DET BAL CLE NYY
Esteban Rivera HOU KCR HOU NYY
Jake Mailhot HOU KCR HOU NYY
Jason Martinez HOU KCR HOU NYY
Jay Jaffe HOU KCR HOU NYY
Jeff Bellone DET BAL DET NYY
Jeff Zimmerman HOU KCR HOU KCR
Jon Becker DET KCR CLE NYY
Kiri Oler HOU BAL CLE NYY
Leo Morgenstern HOU BAL HOU NYY
Matt Martell HOU KCR HOU NYY
Meg Rowley HOU KCR HOU NYY
Michael Baumann HOU KCR HOU NYY
Michael Rosen HOU KCR HOU NYY
Paul Sporer DET BAL CLE NYY
Tess Taruskin DET BAL CLE BAL
Travis Ice DET BAL DET NYY

National League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Writer Name MIL/NYM WC SDP/ATL WC PHI/WC DS LAD/WC DS
Ariel Cohen MIL SDP PHI LAD
Ben Clemens MIL ATL MIL LAD
Dan Szymborski MIL SDP PHI LAD
David Laurila MIL SDP PHI SDP
Davy Andrews MIL SDP PHI LAD
Eric Longenhagen MIL SDP PHI SDP
Esteban Rivera NYM SDP PHI SDP
Jake Mailhot MIL SDP PHI SDP
Jason Martinez NYM SDP PHI LAD
Jay Jaffe MIL SDP PHI SDP
Jeff Bellone NYM SDP PHI SDP
Jeff Zimmerman MIL SDP PHI SDP
Jon Becker MIL SDP PHI SDP
Kiri Oler MIL SDP PHI LAD
Leo Morgenstern NYM SDP PHI LAD
Matt Martell NYM SDP PHI LAD
Meg Rowley MIL SDP PHI SDP
Michael Baumann MIL SDP PHI SDP
Michael Rosen NYM SDP NYM LAD
Paul Sporer MIL SDP PHI SDP
Tess Taruskin MIL SDP PHI SDP
Travis Ice MIL SDP PHI LAD

League Championship Series and World Series
Writer Name ALCS NLCS World Series
Ariel Cohen NYY LAD NYY
Ben Clemens NYY MIL NYY
Dan Szymborski NYY LAD NYY
David Laurila CLE SDP SDP
Davy Andrews BAL PHI PHI
Eric Longenhagen CLE PHI PHI
Esteban Rivera NYY SDP NYY
Jake Mailhot NYY SDP NYY
Jason Martinez NYY LAD NYY
Jay Jaffe NYY SDP NYY
Jeff Bellone NYY SDP SDP
Jeff Zimmerman HOU PHI HOU
Jon Becker CLE SDP CLE
Kiri Oler CLE PHI PHI
Leo Morgenstern HOU PHI PHI
Matt Martell NYY PHI PHI
Meg Rowley NYY PHI PHI
Michael Baumann HOU PHI PHI
Michael Rosen NYY LAD LAD
Paul Sporer NYY SDP SDP
Tess Taruskin CLE SDP SDP
Travis Ice NYY LAD LAD





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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mercymember since 2017
10 days ago

MLB would love a Yankees vs Dodgers World Series. In reality, we’ll get a Tigers vs Braves World Series… and that’s Okay!

1
Brian Reinhartmember since 2016
10 days ago
Reply to  mercy

I mean, it’s not just MLB who’d love to watch Ohtani/Mookie/Freddie vs. Judge/Soto!

My personal preference is for Phillies or Brewers vs. O’s or Guardians, but Yankees/Dodgers would be a heck of a fun watch.

3
sadtrombonemember since 2020
10 days ago
Reply to  mercy

I’m going to be rooting hard for the Royals and Brewers here, but I think the chances of that World Series matchup is probably close to zero. Both teams have some huge holes that I think are going to do them in during an LCS if not before.

In terms of teams that seem more likely to me, I’d be super excited to watch the Orioles versus either the Padres or Phillies. I love what these teams are doing and would be excited to watch them square off.

1
wheelhousemember since 2022
10 days ago
Reply to  mercy

That’s absolutely the blockbuster matchup, but I think the most interesting potential matchup would be Yankees/Padres.

1