After a thrilling end to the regular season that saw the Tigers and Royals clinch playoff berths after long October absences and the race for the final NL Wild Card spots come down to Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers and, for the first time in his MLB career, Shohei Ohtani. And though the bracket boasts top seeds that could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 22 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs!
American League
Wild Card Series
Astros vs. Tigers Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Houston Astros
13
Detroit Tigers
9
Orioles vs. Royals Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Baltimore Orioles
12
Kansas City Royals
10
Division Series
Guardians vs. Astros/Tigers WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Houston Astros
10
Cleveland Guardians
8
Detroit Tigers
4
Yankees vs. Orioles/Royals WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
New York Yankees
18
Baltimore Orioles
3
Kansas City Royals
1
League Championship Series
American League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
9
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
6
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
3
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
2
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
1
American League Championship Series
Winner
Votes
New York Yankees
13
Cleveland Guardians
5
Houston Astros
3
Baltimore Orioles
1
National League
Wild Card Series
Brewers vs. Mets Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Milwaukee Brewers
16
New York Mets
6
Padres vs. Braves Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
San Diego Padres
21
Atlanta Braves
1
Division Series
Phillies vs. Brewers/Mets WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Philadelphia Phillies
20
New York Mets
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1
Dodgers vs. Padres/Braves WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
San Diego Padres
12
Los Angeles Dodgers
10
League Championship Series
National League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
12
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
1
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
National League Championship Series
Winner
Votes
Philadelphia Phillies
8
San Diego Padres
8
Los Angeles Dodgers
5
Milwaukee Brewers
1
World Series
World Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres
5
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
5
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
3
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres
3
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
2
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
2
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
1
World Series Champion
Winner
Votes
Philadelphia Phillies
7
New York Yankees
7
San Diego Padres
4
Los Angeles Dodgers
2
Houston Astros
1
Cleveland Guardians
1
Writer Predictions
American League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Writer Name
HOU/DET WC
BAL/KCR WC
CLE/WC DS
NYY/WC DS
Ariel Cohen
HOU
BAL
CLE
NYY
Ben Clemens
DET
BAL
CLE
NYY
Dan Szymborski
DET
BAL
DET
NYY
David Laurila
HOU
BAL
CLE
BAL
Davy Andrews
DET
BAL
DET
BAL
Eric Longenhagen
DET
BAL
CLE
NYY
Esteban Rivera
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Jake Mailhot
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Jason Martinez
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Jay Jaffe
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Jeff Bellone
DET
BAL
DET
NYY
Jeff Zimmerman
HOU
KCR
HOU
KCR
Jon Becker
DET
KCR
CLE
NYY
Kiri Oler
HOU
BAL
CLE
NYY
Leo Morgenstern
HOU
BAL
HOU
NYY
Matt Martell
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Meg Rowley
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Michael Baumann
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Michael Rosen
HOU
KCR
HOU
NYY
Paul Sporer
DET
BAL
CLE
NYY
Tess Taruskin
DET
BAL
CLE
BAL
Travis Ice
DET
BAL
DET
NYY
National League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.
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mercyMember since 2017
3 months ago
MLB would love a Yankees vs Dodgers World Series. In reality, we’ll get a Tigers vs Braves World Series… and that’s Okay!
I’m going to be rooting hard for the Royals and Brewers here, but I think the chances of that World Series matchup is probably close to zero. Both teams have some huge holes that I think are going to do them in during an LCS if not before.
In terms of teams that seem more likely to me, I’d be super excited to watch the Orioles versus either the Padres or Phillies. I love what these teams are doing and would be excited to watch them square off.
MLB would love a Yankees vs Dodgers World Series. In reality, we’ll get a Tigers vs Braves World Series… and that’s Okay!
I mean, it’s not just MLB who’d love to watch Ohtani/Mookie/Freddie vs. Judge/Soto!
My personal preference is for Phillies or Brewers vs. O’s or Guardians, but Yankees/Dodgers would be a heck of a fun watch.
I’m going to be rooting hard for the Royals and Brewers here, but I think the chances of that World Series matchup is probably close to zero. Both teams have some huge holes that I think are going to do them in during an LCS if not before.
In terms of teams that seem more likely to me, I’d be super excited to watch the Orioles versus either the Padres or Phillies. I love what these teams are doing and would be excited to watch them square off.
That’s absolutely the blockbuster matchup, but I think the most interesting potential matchup would be Yankees/Padres.