NL Wild Card Series Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves

With the 2022 change to a 12-team playoff format, the addition of the Wild Card Series, and the decision to do away with winner-take-all tiebreaker games, Major League Baseball thought it had stuck a fork in Team Entropy and done away with end-of-season scheduling chaos. But with the league’s failure to approach last week’s scheduled Braves-Mets series in Atlanta with the necessary level of proactivity in the face of Hurricane Helene, the two teams were forced to play a doubleheader on Monday to determine the final two NL Wild Card berths. While the Braves squandered leads of 3-0 and 7-6 in the late innings of the opener, the teams ultimately split the doubleheader; both finished 89-73 and made the cut, while the Diamondbacks, who played their final game as scheduled on Sunday, missed it because they lost their season series against the pair. The Braves had to fly cross-country on Monday night in order to make their date with Padres (93-69) in San Diego.

It’s a banged-up Braves team at that. Not only are they missing Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider due to season-ending injuries, but they’re now without Chris Sale. The 35-year-old lefty may well collect the Cy Young award that has long eluded him, but he hasn’t pitched since September 19. Much was made of the Braves’ plan to start him just once in the final week instead of twice, and just when the baseball world expected him to start the must-win second game of Monday’s doubleheader, he was ruled out due to back spasms. Manager Brian Snitker said after the win that he doesn’t expect Sale to pitch in the Wild Card Series, and added that this is something the pitcher has dealt with on and off this season. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters prior to Sale’s scratched start that he would not be going on the injured list. [Update: Sale was left off the roster submitted to the league on Tuesday morning.]

As for the Padres, after a disappointing 2023 season in which they won just 82 games and squandered a franchise-record $255 million payroll and a full season of Juan Soto, they’re back in the postseason for the third time in five seasons. It took awhile for the Padres to hit their stride; they were just 50-49 at the All-Star break but went a major league-best 43-20 (.683) thereafter. Not only did they secure the top NL Wild Card spot (and thus home field advantage here) but they even put a scare into the Dodgers before the latter won the NL West.

To their credit, the Padres turned things around while Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Fernando Tatis Jr. were on the injured list. The rotation looked somewhat threadbare, but offseason additions Dylan Cease and Michael King rose to the occasion. Xander Bogaerts overcame a shoulder injury of his own and eventually took over shortstop from the injured Ha-Seong Kim. An outfield that looked thinner than any in the league got stellar contributions from Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Merrill and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Jurickson Profar. With the exception of Kim, who is slated to undergo season-ending surgery to repair a small tear in his labrum, San Diego’s roster is in comparatively good health.

Rotations

With Musgrove and Darvish both pitching well since their returns, the Padres have one of the better rotations of any playoff squad, and they’re very well set up for a short series. The way manager Mike Shildt has laid it out, Darvish is expected to pitch out of the bullpen in this round.

The centerpiece of the return in the Soto trade, King spent a full major league season in a rotation for the first time at age 29, and it was a good one. He overcame a slow start (a 5.00 ERA and 6.30 FIP in April) to finish fourth in the NL in ERA, fifth in strikeouts (201) and strikeout rate, and eighth in FIP. He was particularly stingy down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA and 2.69 FIP in the second half. During that late run, he added about one mile an hour to both his four-seamer and sinker, increasingly favoring the latter, and worked ahead in the count with greater frequency; he boosted his first-pitch strike rate from 64.5% in the first half to 69.0% in the second, a rate that would have ranked fifth among qualified starters if he had sustained it for the whole season. As Ben Clemens recently pointed out, the improvements made King’s sinker/changeup combination particularly effective (he notched 118 of his 201 strikeouts with those two pitches), especially within a pitch mix that also included a new-for-2024 slider that introduced more lateral variation. The new movement profile graphs at Baseball Savant give us a clear picture:

From the All-Star break onward, King generated a whiff rate of 34.5% or higher from his four-seamer, changeup, slider, and sweeper while often catching batters looking at the sinker.

Musgrove, who missed the last two months of 2023 due to shoulder capsule inflammation, continued to battle injuries into this season, posting a 5.66 ERA and 5.36 FIP before landing on the IL on June 1 due to discomfort caused by a bone spur and a bone bruise in his right elbow. After returning on August 12, he regained a bit of velocity and pitched like an ace, posting a 2.15 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate in 50 1/3 innings; five of his nine starts were scoreless. In that span, batters produced just a .224 wOBA against his four-seamer, .212 against his cutter, and .186 against his sweeper.

Acquired from the White Sox in mid-March, Cease made a seamless transition to the NL as a top-of-the-rotation stalwart, placing fourth in the NL in innings and FIP, and third in strikeout rate and WAR (4.8). He did it while relying heavily on a four-seamer/slider combo, throwing either one pitch or the other over 87% of the time to righties and over 85% of the time to lefties. The heater averages 96.9 mph and is particularly effective against righties (.342 SLG, 27.2% whiff), but the difference-maker is the slider, which had the second-highest Statcast run value (19) in the majors behind that of Sale; batters hit just .159 and slugged .257 while whiffing on 44.7% of swings against it. When Cease needs a third pitch, he spots either a knuckle curve or sweeper, though lefties seem to have the former’s number.

“Disarray” is too mild a word to describe the Braves’ rotation in the wake of Monday’s action and the loss of Sale, given that Max Fried last pitched on Friday and will be on three days of rest when the series starts, Charlie Morton pitched on Sunday, and Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López both pitched on Monday. Via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, at this writing the three options Snitker and company are mulling to start Game 1 each spent far more time at Triple-A Gwinnett than Atlanta: Ian Anderson, who made 10 starts there after returning from April 2023 Tommy John surgery but hasn’t pitched in the majors since ’22, when things were already going downhill; AJ Smith-Shawver, who made 20 starts at Gwinnett but just one for Atlanta; and Bryce Elder, who made 17 starts for Gwinnett and 10 for Atlanta. Fried is the obvious call for Game 2, as he’ll have four days of rest, and López, who pitched one scoreless relief inning in Monday’s second game, would have four days between starts for Game 3.

Elder, a sinker/slider righty who rarely exceeds 92 mph, threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.42 FIP last year, but struggled after the All-Star break, lowering his stock in the eyes of the team. The 25-year-old began this season at Gwinnett, and yo-yoed between the majors and minors all season, coming up to pitch the back half of doubleheaders or fill in due to injuries but not sustaining enough success to stick. Where batters hit just .210 and slugged .393 against his slider last season, those numbers rose to .278 and .593 this year; the pitch’s Statcast value plummeted from seven runs above average to four below. He just doesn’t have much in the way of weapons right now. Anderson, now 26, helped the Braves win it all in 2021 — remember his five no-hit innings in Game 3 of the World Series against Houston? — but had a 5.00 ERA and 4.25 FIP in ’22 before his demotion. Beginning on June 18, he made four lower-level rehab starts in the minors before working his way up to Gwinnett, where he managed a 3.96 ERA and 4.89 FIP across 10 starts (52 1/3 innings), striking out 23.2% of opposing batters but walking 11.8%. According to Statcast, his four-seamer averaged 92.8 mph, 1.2 mph below his average in 2023, when it was hit hard, and 1.8 mph below his average in ’22, when the pitch was still effective. Batters slugged .578 off the heater this year, but his 33.9% whiff rate on his changeup and 37.5% rate on his slider at least offer glimmers of hope if the Braves go with him. Smith-Shawver, a 21-year-old righty who made six appearances last year for the Braves plus one this year, was tagged for a 4.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP at Gwinnett. His four-seamer averaged 95 mph but was hit hard 49.6% of the time, and while his changeup was effective, his breaking pitches were not.

[Update: Anderson was left off the roster (as were Schwellenbach and Sale’s emergency fill-in, Grant Holmes), but Elder and Smith-Shawver were included, with the latter subsequently announced as the starter. ]

Fried was hit for a 7.71 ERA over his first four starts but soon began putting up zeroes. In fact, he left both his April 29 start against the Mariners and May 11 start against the Mets without allowing a hit, and from April 23 onward, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 3.15 FIP, though he did miss about three weeks in July and August due to a bout of neuritis in his left forearm. A lower release point helped him escape his early rut by getting more rise and horizontal movement with his four-seamer. He turned to his sinker more often (15.8%, up from last year’s 11.7%) and got fewer swinging strikes than in the past, but he did a good job of suppressing hard contact. The Padres are particularly vulnerable against lefties (more on that below), so he could give them trouble.

López returned to starting after two years in the bullpen and was a revelation, with his four-seam fastball and slider both ranking high on the Statcast value leaderboards. His slider held hitters to a .171 AVG and .262 SLG while netting whiffs on 44.1% of swings. His curve, used predominantly against lefties, was similarly effective. The Braves went to great lengths to manage his ramping up from last year’s 66 innings; 11 of his 25 starts were made on six or more days of rest. He made two trips to the IL in the second half — one in early August due to forearm tightness and the other in September due to shoulder inflammation — and threw just 31 innings over those final two months. His effectiveness didn’t diminish, at least. In his first start off the IL on Saturday, he threw six innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Royals, striking out nine.

Bullpens

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller remade the Padres bullpen before the trade deadline, adding righties Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing and lefty Tanner Scott. With Adam and Scott sliding into the top setup roles and Hoeing into a middle-relief slot, the new guys combined for a 1.76 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate over a combined 76 2/3 innings with the Padres, and middlemen Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitched well, too. One look at the team’s pitch-modeling leaderboard makes clear what an upgrade this was; the new guys account for three of San Diego’s top six relievers by Stuff+ (116 or better). Scott’s four-seamer, Adam’s changeup, and Hoenig’s splitter (not to mention Estrada’s 84-mph split-change) all placed on the Statcast leaderboards as some of the most valuable offerings of their kind.

The remade bullpen produced a 3.16 ERA and 3.20 FIP after the All-Star break, though the big concern was the late-season struggles of closer Robert Suarez, who was lit for a 5.24 ERA and 4.46 FIP in August and September while striking out just 17.5% of hitters, down from 26.1% through July; he blew three of his last eight save chances. Scott, who notched 18 saves with the Marlins and four with the Padres, does offer a tried-and-true alternative in case Shildt needs one. As for Darvish, he’s never made a relief appearances in the majors, but pitched out of the bullpen for Samurai Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

The Braves had the NL’s best bullpen by FIP (3.41) and second best by ERA (3.32), strikeout rate (26.6%), and WAR (6.2), and given the shape of their current rotation, they’ll need to rely upon their relievers to have a shot at advancing. Raisel Iglesias, who posted a 1.95 ERA and 2.65 FIP, is one of the game’s top closers despite blowing the save in the first game Monday, when he allowed two runs on two hits, including a homer, in one-third of an inning. This season, batters hit .163 or lower and slugged .279 or lower against all four of his offerings (four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup), with whiff rates of 32.5% or higher against all but the sinker. He returned to pitch a scoreless ninth inning in Monday’s Game 2, notching his 34th save of the season. Top setup man Joe Jiménez also pitched both games Monday and was one of the goats in the opener, allowing three runs on three straight hits in the eighth inning without recording an out, but those three runs were his first earned runs allowed since August 27. He too bounced back with a scoreless inning in the second game, and he’s been very good overall (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 29.6% strikeout rate).

The Braves lost setup man A.J. Minter to season-ending hip surgery in August. Pierce Johnson hasn’t been as effective since stepping into the breach, but in general, he’s been more effective against lefties (holding them to a .267 wOBA) than the unit’s two lefties, Aaron Bummer (.316) and Dylan Lee (.312). Given how gassed Atlanta’s pitching is, expect a fair bit of ageless long man Jesse Chavez and 28-year-old rookie Daysbel Hernández, whose 98-mph fastball/slider combo helped him strike out 35.1% of hitters in his 18 innings of late-season work.

Offenses

The Padres were the most contact-oriented team in the majors this season; their strikeout rate was nearly two percentage points lower than any other team while their walk rate was the NL’s second lowest. This didn’t inhibit their production, as they ranked sixth in the NL in scoring and home runs but third in wRC+. Their lineup doesn’t have a Soto-like centerpiece — hey, only one team does — but they did have four players hit at least 20 homers and post a wRC+ of 122 or better: Merrill, Profar, Tatis, and Manny Machado. Tatis (.276/.340/.492, 135 wRC+) hit 21 homers in just 106 games and was about as effective after his September return from a stress reaction in his right femur. Profar (.280/.380/.459, 139 wRC+, 24 HR) enjoyed a career year with the bat after being arguably the worst regular player in baseball last year; his 4.3 WAR represented nearly a six-win improvement. The 21-year-old Merrill (.292/.326/.500, 130 wRC+, 24 HR) made a seamless transition from shortstop to center field and proved to be the Cardiac Kid, hitting six home runs from the seventh inning or later that either tied the game or gave the Padres the lead. The 32-year-old Machado (.275/.325/.472, 122 wRC+, 29 HR) spent the first four weeks of the season limited to DH duty, and he managed just an 86 wRC+ in April and May, but from June 1 onward he hit .294/.343/.536 (142 wRC+).

Speaking of before-and-after-injury splits, Bogaerts hit for just a 71 wRC+ before suffering a fracture in his left shoulder while diving for a ball in late May; he batted .292/.333/.429 (115 wRC+) upon his mid-July return and finished with a 95 wRC+. That makes him the only Padres regular with a mark below the league-average 100, but his production takes on additional importance given the loss of Kim, whose injury led the Padres to reverse this spring’s middle infield switcheroo. It also set off a chain reaction, moving Jake Cronenworth back to second base, with Luis Arraez — who just claimed his third straight batting title via a .313 AVG but a more modest 109 wRC+ — sharing first base and DH duties with Donovan Solano.

One issue that stands out regarding the Padres is their extreme platoon split. Their 20-point gap in wRC+ against righties (116) and lefties (96) was the largest in that direction of any team in the majors, though such gaps in either direction aren’t entirely uncommon among the playoff teams:

Where this really hurts the Padres is with regards to their lefty bats: Arraez (84 wRC+), Merrill (82 wRC+), and Cronenworth (57 wRC+) were all very bad against same-side pitching, and even if we expand the samples, neither Arraez nor Cronenworth has done well against them over the past three seasons (94 wRC+ for the former, 85 wRC+ for the latter). On the other hand (literally), the righty-swinging Bogaerts’ 84 wRC+ against lefties was uncharacteristic; he has a 134 wRC+ against them over the past three seasons.

One other aspect worth noting: The Padres were just eighth in the NL in stolen bases and success rate (81%), but they do have five active players with between 10 and 16 steals this year — Bogaerts, Machado, Merrill, Profar, and Tatis — none of whom was caught more than three times.

The Braves offense offers a marked contrast to that of the Padres, and not just because they’re at the other extreme of that platoon spectrum. (They mashed lefties, but the Padres aren’t starting any, d’oh.) Beyond their middling no. 8 rank in the NL in per-game scoring and wRC+ was the way they got there: They were second in home runs, fourth in strikeout rate, and second-to-last in steals. Eleven different Braves hit at least 10 homers, though Marcell Ozuna (39) and Matt Olson (29) were the only ones with more than 20. Ozuna was the centerpiece of the offense, hitting .302/.378/.546 (154 wRC+) while starting at DH in all 162 games, a performance that could earn him down-ballot MVP votes, particularly in a year when a DH is likely to win the award.

Injuries contributed to Atlanta’s low offensive rankings; after all, Acuña alone accounted for more stolen bases last year than this year’s entire team (16 of those were his, pre-injury). Ozzie Albies, who missed two months due to a fractured left wrist, took a huge step backward, hitting just .251/.303/.404 for a 91 wRC+ (down from 125) and nine homers (down from 33). Michael Harris II, who missed two months due to a left hamstring strain, slipped from a 116 wRC+ to 100 (.266/.306/.424) and from 20 steals to 10, though he is the only active player on the roster with double-digit swipes.

Not every step back was owed to injuries. Orlando Arcia made his first All-Star team last year but turned into a Replacement Level Killer this season, managing just a 72 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Riley wasn’t having his typically potent season before he fractured his right hand on August 18. Olson, who not only played 162 games for the third straight year but played every inning at first base, fell from 54 homers, a .604 SLG, and a 161 wRC+ last year to 29 homers, a .457 SLG, and a 117 wRC+; maybe some rest would have helped. The left field platoon involving Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall — with a bit of end-stage Eddie Rosario thrown in — was Replacement Level Killer territory until Ramón Laureano took over and hit .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers in 67 games.

Laureano and deadline acquisition Jorge Soler, who hit .243/.356/.493 (135 wRC+) with nine homers after being acquired from the Giants, contributed to a midseason outfield makeover reminiscent of 2021 (of which Soler was also part). Former Tiger Gio Urshela, who’s now the starting third baseman, hit a semi-respectable .265/.287/.424 (95 wRC+) while replacing Riley.

Defenses

The Padres were the only playoff team to finish in the red in terms of DRS (-3), and they were even further below average in UZR (-8.4) and FRV (-13). To be fair, those numbers are somewhat weighed down by since-demoted backup catcher Luis Campusano; replacement Elias Díaz and starter Kyle Higashioka are both much more solid behind the plate. Still, in their current state the Padres do have issues. The return of Tatis from his 10-week absence was offset by the loss of the slick-fielding Kim; Bogaerts’ numbers in his 152-inning sample at shortstop were fine, but the team obviously prefers him at second. The domino effect of having Arraez playing the field means having a DH-caliber first baseman. Meanwhile, Tatis did not have anything close to the kind of season that won him last year’s Platinum Glove, and Profar was a real liability in left, but Merrill was exceptional in center.

The Braves are the better defensive team based on the metrics, though only DRS (41) marks them well above average; they’re more or less average by UZR (-2.7) and FRV (2). Harris is a standout in center field, Olson a DRS darling at first base (14 DRS, 2 FRV, 0.4 UZR), and Urshela — long a visually flashy fielder whose metrics haven’t always matched up — has done well in his 304-inning sample with the Braves. Soler is a true liability in right (-11 DRS, -7 FRV, -3.7 UZR), a reminder of why he was exclusively a DH with the Giants pre-trade.

Even against a rested opponent, the Padres would look like a strong team; after all, Shildt’s club did tie for the league’s third-best record. With its pitching lined up against a winded and wounded Atlanta team, I expect San Diego to take care of business here and then stick around for a good long while this October.