I Really Hope This All Works
After everything that led to the start of its truncated 60-game season, Major League Baseball tried its hardest to fill Opening Day with all the excitement it could. The defending World Series champion Nationals faced this offseason’s most sought-after free agent pitcher, making his debut for the league’s most storied franchise. After that, the Dodgers took the field, joined for the first time by the newest face of their franchise, to host their longtime rivals. Leading immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci — the face of the United States’ fight against the COVID-19 pandemic that led to the suspension of sports seasons all over the world — threw out the first pitch of the season, a not-so-subtle signal to the American public that things are fine, or fine enough.
But the moment had already been soured. Hours before the first game of their season, Nationals wunderkind Juan Soto was announced to have tested positive for the coronavirus, forcing him to miss the season-opener and enter self-isolation. In addition to being scary news for Soto — who is asymptomatic — it also served as one more reminder of the dangers MLB faces as it attempts to play a season in the middle of a pandemic, and the complicated moral quandaries fans of the sport will struggle with as long as that season goes on.
Wednesday — Works out at Nationals Park
Thursday — Receives positive test result for Tuesday test
That is four full days between giving a saliva sample that tested negative and receiving a positive result.
— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) July 23, 2020
Not that we needed the reminder in the first place. For four months, we’ve been absorbing as much information as possible about the virus, its potentially deadly effects, and its insidious spread through asymptomatic carriers; about the difficult ethical debates it created; about the lost jobs and the likely permanent damage dealt to already vulnerable industries and communities; about the potentially devastating hurdles and pitfalls that lurk within the return plans of various leagues; and, of course, since this is pro sports, about whether all of this might be rendered moot by the greed of ownership. After all of that, there was hope MLB’s return would be the escape we’ve all anxiously waited for. Instead, it has become its own source of anxiety — a profoundly risky gamble with thousands of lives in the balance, in which we root less for teams and players and more for the simple wish that nothing terrible happens.
Prior to Soto’s results, MLB had carefully been building what could charitably be considered momentum as it edged toward the start of the season. After the testing protocols critical to the safe execution of the season immediately revealed themselves to be wanting the first weekend of camp, the process seemed to have been smoothed out in the weeks since. The positive test totals have remained lower than expected, the vast majority of those who have tested positive have been asymptomatic, and Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, the only player who has publicly reported experiencing severe symptoms after contracting the virus, is back on the field, even as a deal with potential teammate Yasiel Puig fell through after the outfielder tested positive for COVID-19. All of these things have largely been seen as positive developments, and have nudged many of us toward believing this might actually be okay.
It’s less accurate to say any of that is good news, though, than it is to say there was less bad news than we were expecting. There’s a difference there, and it’s part of the calculus that the return of sports in the middle of a pandemic has forced upon fans. Now that baseball is officially here, the conversation shifts from what must happen in order for the season to begin to what would need to transpire for it to be stopped. How many people would need to get sick, and how soon? How sick would they have to be? Right now, MLB’s plan works as long as no one becomes severely ill as a direct result of their participation in the season, and if the communities they operate in aren’t being deprived of resources. But as time goes on, the goalposts seem likely to move.
It feels extraordinarily uncomfortable to be a regular person trying to run through these mental gymnastics — to decide what number of infections is “a good thing, actually,” or how sick someone needs to get as a result of doing their job before we question whether the job is worth doing at all right now. In a sane world, we wouldn’t be asked to make that call for ourselves. We would either be under the influence of leaders bold enough to take necessary action to protect their citizens, or trustworthy enough that when they say something is safe, we believe them. Instead, we are on our own. MLB’s return is another thing we see on our screens that makes our stomachs ache, like when a friend posts photos of themselves at a crowded bar or a loved one shares some anti-mask conspiracy theory on Facebook — it might make you angry, but it also just makes you feel helpless, wishing over and over again for nothing terrible to happen.
And if I sound like I’m condemning the effort to play the season before it really gets underway, I assure you that I badly, badly want this to succeed. If you work in baseball media like I do, you’ve probably spent the last few months wondering what the hell was going to happen to you if there wasn’t a season. For many people, a scrapped 2020 would mean the loss of their paycheck and their health insurance. Beyond that, the vast majority of players seem to really want to play. They like being able to do their jobs and support their families. They know that to be a professional athlete is to fight against time, trying to accomplish as much as possible in the small window of years you are able to wear an major league uniform. As evidenced by their continued insistence on more game during the negotiations to resume play, they aren’t interested in giving a season away; they’re willing to do their part to ensure it’s safe enough to play. There is an argument to be made that they deserve that chance.
And in a comparatively frivolous sense, the loss of baseball for a year would mean the loss of… baseball! For a whole damn year! With a shortened 2020, Mike Trout still gets part of a prime season to bolster his career stat line. The Reds, the team I grew up rooting for, might not have 13 months of aggressive, fun moves go directly into the toilet. We won’t have to wait until 2021 to see the likes of Luis Robert, Nate Pearson, Nick Madrigal, and other exciting prospects make their major league debuts. We’ll get baseball on our TVs, from early afternoon Cubs games to late night west coast tilts. And we’ll get stories to tell and highlights to stare at and maybe even an honest-to-god World Series.
There are so many reasons to celebrate and rejoice over the 2020 season finally starting, for real, for all of us to see, that it feels even more disappointing that it can’t mean more. At the start of camp, Sean Doolittle told reporters, “Sports are like the reward of a functioning society.” The return of baseball could have been the reward for us coming together as people to look out for one another and do what it took to reach the other side of the pandemic. It could have actually signified a return to normal life, something that we collectively earned. Instead, it feels like we’re in a class where our teacher told us she’d buy us pizza if we all passed the big test, and then when half of us failed it, the teacher said, “Ah hell, here’s some pizza anyway.”
I don’t know if baseball returning is the wrong thing to do. I do worry that we won’t know it is before it’s too late. But with salary structures and safety guidelines finally agreed to and in place, the only thing we can do now is hope this whole thing works. That no one else on the Nationals is sick; that the Orioles, who the Nationals played in an exhibition game Monday, don’t report cases of their own. That we get a full season, because a full season would hopefully mean nothing terrible has happened along the way. We have to hope that everyone stays healthy, and that communities are protected, and that those in power will take the appropriate action in the event this all starts to fall apart. The journey to begin this season has been fraught, filled with uncertainty at every turn. The path to the end will be, too.
Tony is a contributor for FanGraphs. He began writing for Red Reporter in 2016, and has also covered prep sports for the Times West Virginian and college sports for Ohio University's The Post. He can be found on Twitter at @_TonyWolfe_.
Turns out the answer to the question “what does MLB do if a player tests positive during the season” was “ehhhhh, let’s just play the game anyway”.
Jesus. This is going to be such a mess. Haha.
And they still haven’t worked out where the Blue Jays are going to play at home yet.
Sounds like it’s gonna be Camden Yards.
Natty Boh Bichette.
Uh it’s 100% going to be Buffalo.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/07/blue-jays-home-games-buffalo.html#comments
Actually it looks like it’s going to be Buffalo, though they will have to fix some of the park’s lighting issues.
They’re going to Sweden this thing until a player or a player’s wife dies.
The only way I see this devolving into a mess is if there’s enough of an outbreak in a particular clubhouse to render a team not operational. Other than that, they’re doing what everyone else in America is doing – trying to go about their business with as little risk as possible. In fact, businesses that are open are for the most part flying blind compared to these guys.
I wouldn’t say that everyone is trying to go about their business with as little risk as possible. There seems to be a sizable minority convinced that masks are a leftist plot to give their jobs to an immigrant or something. They are the main reason that the US is doing so much worse than the EU right now.
Don’t want to go down a political rabbit hole here, but while I agree with some of your sentiment on the mask thing, I can tell you that at least where I live, and this is supported by the actual numbers, college age kids and the people they infect are driving the numbers. If it were anti-maskers, you’d expect an older crowd.
To give supporting information, in my county 40% of all cases are 20-29. That’s not exactly the guns & religion & they took our jobs crowd.
It’s the sons of those people.
I can confirm this.
Wasn’t that always to obvious answer to that question though? It’s unreasonable to expect 100% negative tests for the entire season. A positive test was virtually guaranteed. If they planned on cancelling the season over a positive test, they wouldn’t have started the season at all.
No one was expecting 100% negative tests. It was the exact opposite in fact. Which is why everyone was asking, how do you handle a player testing positive re: the rest of the team he had contact with? they need to be tested and quarantined until the tests come back. How do you work around that?
When that question became a reality (which was literally at the first possible opportunity), MLB’s answer was “meh. I’m sure it will be fine. PLAY BALL!”
I’m sure it won’t be a popular opinion but this is a massive failure on MLB’s part and this plan to restart is a fucking disgrace.
How is it a fucking disgrace? Everyone understands the risks (or lack thereof for this demographic), people were given the ability to opt out consequence free, there ARE no foolproof ways to totally protect people from a virus like this short of the ‘bubble’ concept no players wanted to sign up for…
I don’t know what you want other than quarantining everyone who came into contact with a positive test (might as well not have bothered with a season at all) or not playing in the first place.
I’m happy to have baseball back – despite the backseat drivers griping at the lack of perfect solutions.
You were saying?
Care to ask that again?
About 70,000 new cases per day in the United States, an increase of about 50K over a month ago. If that holds steady with no increases (very optimistic, since it’s only going up from here) we’re looking at over 2 million new cases in the next 30 days. If we expect it to increase at the same rate so it’s linear (again, probably still optimistic because of exponential growth) we’ll be adding 120K at the end of the month. Just doing some quick math in my head, that would put us at almost 3 million new cases. And all hell is going to break loose at that point.
So enjoy baseball while you can, because there are a lot of reasons to think they’re going to be out of Florida and Arizona in a couple of weeks, Georgia and Texas the week after that, and California the week after that. At that point, 12 of the 30 teams will be homeless (the extra one is the Blue Jays) and this is going to start to look not feasible.
I mean – sure, this is a conceivable outcome. But so is incoming new cases per day staying roughly where it is, or even declining. Nothing has been linear about COVID or our responses to it here, or anywhere. There are so many moving parts to this, and 50 state- and thousands of city/county-governments reacting to their own local situations in real-time. I don’t think it’s fair to assume govt policies or public behaviors will stay static in any given period looking forward – especially in the southern states that have seen such a drastic July increase.
So sure, things could get worse, but let’s just take it a day at a time here.
This country’s leadership party, from federal down to local, is determined to react to things getting worse instead of taking a proactive approach. There won’t be baseball in September so I’m just trying to enjoy it while it lasts.
I fear there will be baseball in Sept no matter what happens. MLB seems determined to plow ahead with this no matter how terrible a plan it is.
The Canadian government looked at MLBs plan to restart and said “yeah, not a chance. Bye.” (And then probably apologized because it’s Canada)
I’m not sure how that is not a bigger story. Its a pretty damning indictment of what MLB is doing and everyone seemed to just shrug and move on.
But I feel like people are doing that alot these days.
When the country is full of packed bars with no one social distancing or wearing masks, what are we gaining by not letting a couple dozen people play baseball? More people share much less space on single plane flight! Toronto not letting teams play even without fans is patent nonsense. The goal is not to eliminate the disease, which is impossible, the goal is to limit opportunity for widespread transmission. People sharing space on a baseball field is such a drop in the f’ing bucket I don’t know why people are even bothering to agonize over it, unless you are of the mind that we should all hide in our basements until spring of 2021, praying for vaccines.
One clarification: The Toronto municipal government and the Ontario provincial government gave whatever permissions and exceptions were needed for the Blue Jays to play in Toronto; the Canadian federal government, on the other hand, refused to grant an exemption the Jays needed to quarantine requirements for persons entering Canada from the United States.
What attracts people to fangraphs generally is the analytic side of baseball. We can debate if there should be or if there shouldn’t be a season till we are blue in the face, the problem is we are only looking at this analytically. When has this country ever made a decision that was for the good of all, not just some? People above mentioned entire teams not being able to play. There is no doubt in my mind that MLB would simply make them forfeit. They have already said that multiple nationals have tested positive since Soto. The MLB is a business. They quite literally give no fucks about their players, how this not evident? The only way the season gets canceled is if players start opting out midseason and entire states are shutdown. Even then I think they attempt to move games first.
Canada not letting people in from the United States is very good policy. Canada is the only place in North or South America that isn’t going to get completely overrun with COVID, and it would be best for them to keep it that way. The problem with baseball without fans isn’t that some people would get it, it’s that there shouldn’t be a lot of movement right now, period. That goes double for low-COVID places like New York, and triple for places like Ontario where you’re seeing less than 200 new cases a day.
Which gets to the other main point, which is that we *could* get close to eliminating the disease if that was an actual policy goal, but there is a lot of resistance to making the temporary sacrifices to get back to normal life later. So now we’re going to be stuck in an endless cycle of restricted activities for the next year or so, potentially much larger. We are so eager to have bars, restaurants, baseball, and all the other good things in life that we’re putting ourselves much further away from getting back to actual normal. Policymakers have utterly failed the marshmellow test and we’re all going to suffer.
You do you genius. It’s people like you who are guaranteeing that the mess that is the US will not be resolved any time soon and none of us will be watching MLB anytime soon after a shutdown,
I remember people debating if it was the right thing to do for baseball to return after 9/11.
It was the right thing to do then. And it’s the right thing to do now. People need an outlet for entertainment, especially in trying times.
Besides the fact that 9/11 and a highly infectious disease are not even remotely the same thing…………sure?
Also Covid has killed more people since Monday
“how sick someone needs to get as a result of doing their job before we question whether the job is worth doing at all right now.”
This is an interesting question.
I would argue that compared to the physical toll that professional athletes must pay (How many fit adults in their 20’s go through surgery?), the additional risk of Covid-19 is relatively minor.
I’m not trying to minimize the impact of Covid-19 or suggesting that since MLB players make so much money, they should just suck it up.
But the whole idea of seeing healthy athletes compete at the cost of actively diminishing their own health, which is true before and after Covid-19, does seem a bit perverse at times.
The obvious difference being that a MLB player cannot pass on a torn MCL to a dozen other people who aren’t in a good position to come out ok.
“In a sane world, we wouldn’t be asked to make that call for ourselves.”
That about sums up the issue for many of us, as I, for one, would prefer to make the decision myself.
This is the least informative and least interesting piece I’ve read on Fangraphs.
Kind of a glass half empty article. I find most people are quite willing to do their share. Yes there’s a lot of loud disagreement. Always will be. But nurses and meat packers and amazon workers and many others are doing their part, I think companies really do want to keep their employees safe. There’s no perfect solution here. I for one am really happy to have some baseball, even if Tony thinks we don’t “deserve “ it.
Looks like this isn’t going to work.
We all saw this coming. I guarantee you Manfred did, too.
Manfred is now making Gary Bettman look good.
He is an fucking disgraceful little baseball-Trump toad.