Expanded Playoffs Always Made Sense for 2020
Just ahead of the start of the season, MLB and the MLBPA announced an agreement to add an additional round of playoff games to the postseason, eliminating the Wild Card as we knew it for this season only. While they were reportedly part of several of the proposals to resume play, when the players and owners didn’t revise the March agreement, expanded playoffs fell to the wayside. But the lead-up to the regular season apparently gave the sides more time to work out a deal (any changes to the playoff structure have to be collectively bargaine), so here we are. As detailed last night when we frantically changed our playoff odds page, there will be:
- 16 Playoff Teams
- Division winners will receive the top three seeds in each league
- Second-place division finishers will receive the 4-6 seeds in each league
- The two teams in each league with the best records apart from those six will be the seventh and eighth seeds
- The top four seeds in each league will host every game in a best-of-three Wild Card Series to advance to the division series
In terms of the agreement, players will receive a playoff pool totaling $50 million; competitive balance tax money will not be collected this season, which should save the Yankees $8 million to $10 million. The television rights to seven of the eight first-round series will go to ESPN, with the other series going to TBS. The revised 60-game regular season schedule ended up giving FOX and FS1 the same number of televised games, with TBS missing out on a handful of games and ESPN losing a significant part of their regular season schedule. Providing TBS with an extra game or two and ESPN with somewhere between 14 and 21 playoff games (they were previously paying $27 million for a single Wild Card game) likely allows MLB to recover the bulk, or potentially all, of the lost national television revenue for the 2020 season despite the shortened schedule.
As for the ramifications on the field, the extra round of playoffs blends multiple purposes with respect to the season. A shortened regular season means more variation and makes it more difficult to determine who the best teams are. There’s a much greater chance of an otherwise good team missing out on the playoffs due mostly to dumb luck. Take the Dodgers as an example. In a 162-game season, our playoff odds put their chances of making the playoffs at 97%. When the season is shortened to 60 games, those odds go down to 86%. There’s no change in talent between those two situations, but the shorter season makes it so that talent mixes more with luck, resulting in the Dodgers not making the playoffs as often. Adding an extra round and three more teams per league puts the Dodgers odds of making the playoffs back up to 95%. Good teams missing the playoffs because of a shortened season is something probably best avoided if we want the best possible showcase in October.
On the other side of the coin is the obvious fact that teams that might not be very good will make the playoffs. The Rangers and Rockies would have made the playoffs after 60 games in this format last season. While potentially undeserving teams might make the playoffs, the odds of an undeserving team winning the World Series remain quite low. Maybe a team will sneak into the playoffs with an unhealthy dose of luck, but if that same team then plays and beats four decent-to-great teams on the way to the title, it’s hard to argue they don’t deserve it.
Here’s a look at the change in playoff odds by team compared to the old format. The new playoff odds are highlighted in orange:
| Team | Win Div | Win Div 2nd | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Make Playoffs (OLD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 18% | 27% | 19% | 64% | 33% | 31% |
| Red Sox | 14% | 25% | 26% | 65% | 34% | 31% |
| Athletics | 22% | 35% | 18% | 74% | 44% | 30% |
| Angels | 12% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 27% | 30% |
| Indians | 30% | 32% | 15% | 77% | 49% | 28% |
| Padres | 18% | 37% | 14% | 68% | 41% | 28% |
| Phillies | 13% | 18% | 18% | 49% | 24% | 25% |
| Cubs | 30% | 25% | 16% | 71% | 46% | 25% |
| Mets | 25% | 25% | 18% | 68% | 43% | 25% |
| Dbacks | 8% | 24% | 15% | 47% | 22% | 25% |
| Cardinals | 19% | 22% | 17% | 58% | 33% | 25% |
| Reds | 24% | 24% | 17% | 65% | 40% | 25% |
| Brewers | 25% | 24% | 17% | 66% | 42% | 24% |
| Rays | 34% | 35% | 17% | 86% | 62% | 24% |
| Nationals | 33% | 27% | 17% | 77% | 54% | 23% |
| Rangers | 5% | 15% | 17% | 36% | 14% | 23% |
| Twins | 47% | 29% | 11% | 87% | 65% | 22% |
| Braves | 28% | 27% | 18% | 72% | 51% | 22% |
| Blue Jays | 3% | 10% | 16% | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Yankees | 48% | 30% | 13% | 91% | 73% | 19% |
| Rockies | 4% | 14% | 11% | 29% | 11% | 18% |
| Astros | 62% | 24% | 8% | 94% | 80% | 14% |
| Royals | 3% | 7% | 9% | 19% | 6% | 13% |
| Pirates | 2% | 5% | 7% | 14% | 5% | 10% |
| Dodgers | 70% | 20% | 5% | 95% | 86% | 9% |
| Giants | 1% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 3% | 9% |
| Tigers | 1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 9% |
| Marlins | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 7% |
| Mariners | 0% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 5% |
| Orioles | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
Almost all of the teams seeing big boosts in playoff odds already had a decent shot at making the postseason. They were all essentially decent or better teams. At the bottom of the table, we see the teams we don’t expect to make the playoffs; those clubs still don’t have a great shot at making the playoffs. Where the changes have the biggest impact in the playoffs is in making it to the divisional round. A division title used to guarantee passage, but now a three-game Wild Card series, even with all the games played in the more-highly seeded team’s home park, takes a chunk out of the odds for the best teams:
| Team | Make LDS (NEW) | Make LDS (OLD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 26.4% | 18.7% | 7.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 14.1% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | 30.3% | 23.5% | 6.8% |
| Rangers | 14.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% |
| Padres | 34.1% | 28.5% | 5.6% |
| Blue Jays | 11.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| Phillies | 22.4% | 17.2% | 5.2% |
| Rockies | 11.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% |
| Athletics | 36.8% | 32.6% | 4.2% |
| White Sox | 28.8% | 25.0% | 3.8% |
| Royals | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Giants | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| Pirates | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Tigers | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Marlins | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Mariners | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Cardinals | 26.7% | 25.8% | 0.9% |
| Mets | 34.6% | 33.9% | 0.7% |
| Orioles | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Reds | 31.0% | 31.7% | -0.7% |
| Brewers | 32.2% | 33.4% | -1.2% |
| Cubs | 36.0% | 37.4% | -1.4% |
| Indians | 37.3% | 39.5% | -2.2% |
| Rays | 46.0% | 48.7% | -2.7% |
| Braves | 38.0% | 40.9% | -2.9% |
| Nationals | 40.0% | 43.9% | -3.9% |
| Yankees | 52.4% | 61.7% | -9.3% |
| Twins | 46.8% | 56.8% | -10.0% |
| Astros | 56.7% | 72.1% | -15.4% |
| Dodgers | 59.4% | 80.0% | -20.6% |
For the most part, the changes aren’t dramatic. Teams that see their chances of making the playoffs increase are then subject to three road games, which cuts into their odds of winning the next round. More than half the teams see a change of five percentage points or less. Only the teams with the best projections see a significant dip, but keep in mind this model helps make sure those talented teams don’t miss the playoffs due to dumb luck in the first place. By the time we get to the World Series, most of the odds have evened out:
| Team | Win World Series (NEW) | Win World Series (OLD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Angels | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Athletics | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Padres | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Cubs | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Phillies | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Mets | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| White Sox | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Rangers | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Reds | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Blue Jays | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Cardinals | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Indians | 3.8% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Brewers | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Rockies | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Rays | 6.8% | 6.7% | 0.1% |
| Giants | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Pirates | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Royals | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tigers | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braves | 4.6% | 4.7% | -0.1% |
| Twins | 6.6% | 7.0% | -0.4% |
| Yankees | 10.0% | 10.9% | -0.9% |
| Astros | 13.3% | 16.1% | -2.8% |
| Dodgers | 14.9% | 19.5% | -4.6% |
We see mostly small increases for a majority of teams and all but two teams within one percentage point of their prior championship odds. The Astros and Dodgers see bigger changes in their odds than most teams due to the extra round, but it seems like a small price to pay to help make it more likely they don’t miss the playoffs entirely, and give more teams a chance to compete and eliminate some of the variation associated with the short regular season.
A short best-of-three might not be the ideal expanded playoff solution, but given the present limitations, it’s better than the old format for this season. Putting in at least two teams from each division also helps eliminate the potential lack of fairness posed by unbalanced schedules (I’m looking at you, Central Divisions). Teams are facing significantly different levels of competition during the 60-game season, increasing the randomness that the season could present. Evening that out and giving more teams the chance to prove themselves in a potentially grueling playoff run is about the best we can hope for this season.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Why stop at 16?
Why not put 24 teams in the playoffs?
Because the 16th best team in MLB (the Padres, according to the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections) is much, much better than the 24th best team (the Pirates, according to the same). Also the classic small postseason argument for baseball of the marathon regular season giving teams a chance to separate themselves from lesser teams and truly earn their spot in the playoffs doesn’t apply in 2020.
Point: Expanded playoffs always made sense for 2020.
Counterpoint: None of this made sense for 2020.
You keep saying this and the virus is a worrisome situation, but playing baseball and living our lives makes sense. Treatments are improving, MLB is testing regularly. Even Fauci threw out the first pitch… I’ve noticed this backlash against the silly, harmful things that you-know-who says. Everyone seems to react by being extra cautious to show they’re serious and don’t agree.
89 MLBers out of 1200 on the 40 man have tested positive. I think only Freeman had serious symptoms and he was on the field for opening day. It’s manageable. Take precautions, wear a mask, but quit it with the hyperventilating.
it’s going to be absolutely hellish here in the states before the season is out. good luck to you, and me, and MLB. we’re going to need it. this grasping for normalcy in these times is understandable, but you should buckle your seat belt–things are going to be pretty awful for another 9 months at least, and this season is either not going to last or look like a farce.
How much you wanna bet we all suddenly realize COVID is no longer a problem the day after the elections in November?
As of November 4th, the white-knuckle panic will be gone as quickly as it arrived.
Barring an actual miracle regarding conditions on the ground, this will not happen.
I’m not a fan of this. Baseball is inherently more random than other sports. Unlike basketball, the #1 seed doesn’t always beat the 8 seed in a short series. While it does give more teams a ray of hope, it’s adding to the potential of having a mediocre team winning the World Series.
Last year even the Mariners had the best record in baseball through 15 games. One hot streak and a poor team could win it all.
I’d rather see 4 team pool play replace the first two short rounds, with the pool winners advancing to the LCS.
For 2020 why not. Adding some more excitement, and every regular season game is going to be like the playoffs. The division winners playing all 3 games at their home park and getting to choose their opponent (that is still a go right) on a televised seeding show seems like a fun idea as well. That was what initially reported at least. My concern is Manfred keeping any of the silly changes he made for this season, i.e this, or runners on second. But even if he does, in the scheme of things it’s just more baseball and more important late season games… Which doesn’t sound all that bad.
Look at the Orioles moving up!
A couple things that stood out to me. First, why are the Red Sox playoff odds so high? They have a rotation of Eovaldi, Perez, Weber, Hall, Covey and Erod is out indefinitely. I get that their offense still rates out well, but that seems like a stretch to me as well. Sure they are above average, and they have mostly have young bats, but other guys like JDM showed very obvious signs of decline last two years (biggest EV loser in the entire MLB back to back years) and really struggled vs RHP in comparison. While it can be variance, his numbers were literally astounding. The best hitter in the entire MLB vs LHP .404/494/887 with 19 HRs . Where as vs RHP he hit only hit 17 hrs in 487 PA (vs 19 in 170 vs lhp) and had a pedestrian .272/344/449 in nearly 500 PA. To me that is a large enough sample size that the only reason there wasn’t a “Whats wrong with Jd Martinez” article is that he mashed LHP harder than anyone ever has. The article will come this year, however.
Next why are the Rangers so low? I get that the rating systems do not love their offense, but that rotation is so incredibly strong. I thought they’d have at least a 60% chance, not 36%. The Angels could certainly make the playoffs, but there are so many unknowns. First the rotation still isn’t good. Maybe average. Second they expect an unwarranted bounceback from Upton. And regarding Rendon, obliques are tricky. It isn’t unusual for guys to have down years trying to play through them. When you couple that with a chance of scenery into a harder division and league Rendon was firmly atop my do not draft in fantasy baseball.
Yankees, Astros, Rays, Athletics, Twins, Indians, White Sox, Rangers is my bet/power rankings.